WULF
WULF · TeraWulf Inc. · Catalyst Calendar · as of August 19, 2026
Banded 0–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 months, earliest first. Numbering is gapless and runs straight through the bands, so a boundary never resets the count. An ID marks position in the current ordering and changes between revisions, so catalysts are named by title.
The company signed an Equity and Asset Purchase Agreement in late 2025 for the Morgantown generating station in Charles County, Maryland, roughly 210 MW of grid-connected generation which it markets as Chesapeake Data with expansion potential it puts at up to 1 GW. The 10-K said it expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to third-party consents and regulatory approvals including from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
That quarter ended on June 30, 2026 and no completion has been announced. The transaction is the company's only owned generation, as distinct from grid-supplied load, so it is the test of whether the stated strategy of pairing sites with on-site generation is executable.
Approval granted and closing announced, giving the company dispatchable generation inside PJM and a template for the next such acquisition.
Approval is refused, conditioned onerously, or the agreement lapses, removing the generation leg of the strategy and raising a question about the other pending approvals.
Source: Form 10-K, February 27, 2026, subsequent events; first quarter results release, May 8, 2026. Filed
On July 6, 2026 the company entered a definitive agreement to sell its entire 50.1% interest in the Abernathy joint venture to an investor group led by Fluidstack, its partner in the venture. It describes the transaction as monetising an approximately $450 million investment at a premium to invested capital, and as eliminating joint venture accounting from its statements.
Completion converts a carrying value of $434.8 million at March 31, 2026 into cash and settles whether the premium is real. It also removes 168 MW from the contracted book while removing the attributable-share adjustment that made the reported 522 MW differ from the 606 MW its campus figures sum to.
Cash received above the $434.8 million carrying value, producing a gain and funding wholly owned development without new equity.
The sale does not complete, leaving capital tied up in a minority-controlled venture, or completes at a price that implies a lower value for comparable contracted capacity elsewhere in the portfolio.
Source: Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, July 6, 2026; carrying value from Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026. Filed
The company said in May 2026 that CB-4 and CB-5 at Lake Mariner remain on schedule for delivery and rent commencement in 2026, following CB-3 delivered in May. These are the buildings that carry the Fluidstack capacity, and rent commencement is what triggers the Google backstop for the lease concerned.
This is the single most consequential operational item on the calendar. It converts contracted megawatts into revenue, and it moves the credit support from contingent to effective.
Both buildings deliver and rent commences, the backstop engages, and quarterly lease revenue steps up from the $21.0 million first-quarter base.
Delivery slips past a contractual threshold, giving the tenant a termination right that would not trigger the backstop, against buildings financed by secured notes.
Source: First quarter 2026 results release, May 8, 2026. Filed
The first period likely to reflect any proceeds from the Abernathy disposal and the first in which CB-4 or CB-5 rent could appear. It should also carry the first accounting treatment of the Anthropic lease, which was executed in July but generates no revenue until 2027.
Two rent-commenced buildings and disposal proceeds together produce the first quarter in which lease revenue clearly dominates and cash is not being consumed by construction alone.
Construction payables and interest continue to outrun lease revenue, and the deficit widens with no offsetting disposal.
The date is a cadence estimate from the third quarter report filed November 10, 2025. No date has been announced.
Source: Filing cadence from Form 10-Q filed November 10, 2025. Estimate
The first audited statement of the year in which the business was supposed to change character. It will settle the full-year revenue mix between mining and leases, the year-end equity position, and whether the auditor's view of internal control and going concern is unchanged. It is also where the Anthropic lease receives its first full accounting description, including whether the investment-grade support is documented as the company expects.
Lease revenue dominates the full year, equity is restored, and the Anthropic credit support is confirmed in the disclosure.
A going concern paragraph, a material weakness, or an Anthropic lease disclosed with weaker support than the July announcement implied.
The date is a cadence estimate from annual reports filed March 20, 2024, March 3, 2025 and February 27, 2026. No date has been announced.
Source: Filing cadence from Forms 10-K, March 20, 2024, March 3, 2025 and February 27, 2026. Estimate
Nine directors were elected on June 9, 2026 to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, which fixes the next meeting as the point at which the whole board stands again. With authorised common already raised once, from 600,000,000 to 950,000,000 shares during 2025, and 495,532,645 outstanding, a further authorisation proposal would be the item to watch on the agenda.
Routine re-election with high support and no new share authorisation sought, implying the company sees its funding as complete.
A request for further authorised shares, or withhold votes against directors, signalling either more dilution ahead or shareholder discontent with the related-party lease arrangements.
Source: Form 8-K Item 5.07, June 10, 2026. Filed
The company expects initial capacity at the Hawesville campus to be placed into service during the second half of 2027, ramping to the full 401 MW by early 2028. The start of that window falls just inside twelve months from the as-of date, which is why it appears here rather than as context.
Nothing about the $19 billion of contracted revenue reaches the income statement before this date. Until then the lease is a commitment by both parties and a construction obligation for one of them.
First capacity energized on schedule with an investment-grade counterparty behind it, establishing a second tenant relationship at scale.
The schedule slips, and because backstop arrangements take effect only on lease commencement, a delay beyond a contractual threshold could allow termination with no credit support engaged.
Source: Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, July 6, 2026. Filed
Structural items that shape the backdrop but do not trade in the window.
Kentucky Power, an AEP company, is constructing a 345 kV substation connected to the existing 765 kV transmission network to support the full campus, and transmission and energy service agreements were executed concurrently with the acquisition under the applicable industrial general service tariff. The site is zoned for its intended use with permitting underway. No tenant has been announced.
A tenant is signed well ahead of delivery, as happened at Hawesville, converting an uncontracted site into a second multi-year revenue stream.
Substation construction or permitting slips, or no tenant emerges, leaving capital in land and interconnection that generates nothing.
Source: Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, May 26, 2026. Filed
The block subsidy halves at a protocol-defined interval, which the company anticipates falling in April 2028. It would cut the revenue from a fleet that produced $13.0 million in the first quarter of 2026, against $34.4 million a year earlier. On the current trajectory the mining business may be largely displaced by lease capacity before the date arrives, which is why the impact is marked Low despite the certainty of the event.
The fleet has been retired or fully displaced by HPC tenants by then, making the halving irrelevant to the company.
Mining is still contributing meaningfully and the subsidy cut removes half of it at a stroke, with no compensating price move.
Source: Form 10-K, February 27, 2026. Filed
Ongoing and undated, most material first. These take “Why undated” in place of timing confidence.
Google's backstop of Fluidstack's obligations becomes effective only after the relevant lease commences. If a project is delayed beyond specified thresholds the customer may terminate, and such a termination does not trigger the backstop. The backstop is triggered only by a payment or insolvency default, so other events of default can end a lease without it engaging.
This is the structural gap in the credit story: the investment-grade support that made the debt financing possible is absent during the period when the risk is highest.
Each commencement closes the gap permanently for that lease, converting a construction exposure into an investment-grade receivable.
A delay-triggered termination ends a lease with the backstop never engaged, leaving financed buildings without a tenant or a guarantor.
Three convertible series and the Google warrants together underlie 264,413,068 shares against 495,532,645 outstanding, a ceiling of 53.4%. See the dilution and capital overlay in section 5 for the arithmetic and the offsets.
Cash settlement and the capped calls hold realized dilution far below the ceiling, and conversion retires $2.5 billion of debt without a cash outflow.
All three series convert in shares above their caps while the warrants exercise in full, and per-share claims on the contracted book fall by a third.
Fluidstack holds 378 MW at Lake Mariner and 168 MW at Abernathy; Anthropic holds approximately 401 MW at Hawesville. Core42's 60 MW was the first energized and revenue-generating lease; 81 MW was revenue-generating at June 30, 2026 and 102 MW after the CB-3 delivery in early July. The company also discloses that certain customer agreements may restrict it from providing services to competitors of existing tenants, which narrows the replacement pool if a lease is lost.
Concentration in two of the best-capitalized names in AI, both with third-party credit support, is a higher quality book than a diversified list of unfunded startups.
One counterparty changing plan strands capacity built to its specification, with a replacement pool narrowed further by the exclusivity terms.
Liabilities of $7,086.4 million exceeded assets of $7,008.8 million at March 31, 2026, a deficit of $77.6 million against positive equity of $140.4 million three months earlier. The 2030 Senior Secured Notes are secured on substantially all assets of Wulf Compute and its guarantors, which hold the Lake Mariner HPC buildings, and the revolving facility carries a minimum liquidity covenant.
The April raise and rent commencement restore positive equity within two reporting periods, and the deficit reads as a timing artefact of warrant accounting.
The deficit deepens as construction payables and interest accrue ahead of revenue, tightening the minimum liquidity covenant and forcing equity issuance into weakness.
The company states Lake Mariner can scale to approximately 500 MW in the near term and to approximately 750 MW subject to additional approvals from the New York Independent System Operator. The operator's own load interconnection queue carries two requests at the Kintigh 345 kV substation in Zone A, each for 250 MW, which is consistent with 500 MW being requested and the further step not yet lodged.
Approval for the step to 750 MW adds 250 MW at a site with transmission already built, which is the cheapest capacity in the portfolio to deliver.
The operator declines or defers, capping the flagship campus at roughly 500 MW and pushing growth to sites with longer paths to power.
The company sold 10,326,000 shares for $190.9 million gross under the program between 31 March and May 8, 2026, and the 10-Q states no amounts remained available for sale. Incremental equity now requires a new registration or another underwritten offering, both of which are slower and more visible than tapping an existing shelf.
With $3.09 billion of cash and a $250 million revolver, no further equity is needed, and the exhausted program simply marks the end of the dilution phase.
Capital is needed sooner than planned and must be raised through an announced offering, which signals the need publicly and prices it accordingly.
Roughly 49,400 miners at 9.3 EH/s produced $13.0 million in the first quarter of 2026 against $34.4 million a year earlier. Rewards come through the Foundry mining pool and digital assets are custodied at NYDIG. The company carries no business interruption insurance on the mining assets, citing limited market availability, and property cover is approximately $50 million per occurrence.
A rising bitcoin price funds construction from operations while the fleet occupies capacity no tenant has yet called for.
A sharp fall removes the residual cash contribution and writes down the fleet, with no business interruption cover behind the assets.
Closed items, kept for the record, ordered by resolution date. A resolved catalyst takes the next free R number; it does not carry its old D number over.
Three data center lease agreements with Fluidstack USA I Inc. for 378 MW of critical IT load at Lake Mariner, supported by credit enhancement from Google. This is the transaction that made the subsequent debt financing possible at scale, and it created the warrant block that now dominates the reported loss.
Net proceeds of approximately $975.3 million, conversion price approximately $12.43, effective interest rate 10.9% against a 1.00% coupon. Capped calls costing $100.6 million lift the effective dilution threshold to $18.76.
Issued through Wulf Compute LLC to finance the Lake Mariner HPC buildout, secured on substantially all assets of that subsidiary and its guarantors, on the equity of Wulf Compute, and on a designated Fluidstack lockbox account. Issuance costs and up-front fees of $105.4 million bring the effective rate to 8.7%. The single largest financing in the company's history.
An amended and restated limited liability company agreement with Fluidstack CS I Inc. governing FS CS 1 LLC, with a board of managers of three TeraWulf designees and two from the partner. Fully pre-leased to Fluidstack USA III on a 25-year term with Google credit support. The interest is now under agreement to be sold.
Net proceeds of approximately $998.4 million on notes bearing no regular interest, conversion price approximately $19.94, effective rate 0.4%. The filing states the month but not the day, so this item sorts last within October.
Approximately 750 acres at Hawesville, Kentucky, acquired by Justified DataPower LLC from Century Aluminum of Kentucky General Partnership. The seller retains a 6.8% non-dilutive minority equity interest in Raylan Data Holdings LLC with a right to require repurchase from the first anniversary of the data center's commencement of operations. The company's own disclosure states the acreage and the minority interest but not the price; the $200,000,000 cash consideration appears in the seller's Current Report of the same date.
Revenue of $168.5 million and a net loss of $661.4 million, of which $429.8 million was fair value movement on warrants and derivatives. Deloitte & Touche LLP issued an unqualified opinion and a clean opinion on internal control at December 31, 2025. No going concern paragraph.
Between Raylan Finance LLC, Raylan Data LLC and Justified DataPower LLC with Morgan Stanley Senior Funding as administrative and collateral agent, at Term SOFR plus 2.75%, to finance construction at Hawesville. Short-term debt of $98.6 million appeared on the March 31, 2026 balance sheet.
47,400,000 shares plus the full exercise of a 30-day option over 7,110,000 more, with Morgan Stanley as representative of the underwriters. Priced at $19.00, which is above the August 18, 2026 close of $15.62 by 21.6%, having been 0.9% above the previous basis.
Senior secured, at Term SOFR plus 1.75% until the first Fluidstack lease commencement and thereafter on a grid tied to total debt against market capitalization. Secured on substantially all assets, with a minimum liquidity covenant and a maturity that springs 91 days before the 2030 convertible notes if certain conditions exist.
HPC lease revenue of $21.0 million exceeded digital asset revenue of $13.0 million for the first time. Total equity of negative $77.6 million was reported. Sixty megawatts were energized for Core42.
Acquired from Industrial Equity Partners within the 1,000-acre EastPark Industrial Park. Transmission infrastructure and energy service agreements were executed concurrently. No price was disclosed and no tenant has been announced.
348,345,521 shares were present or represented, approximately 80.01% of the common stock outstanding at the April 13, 2026 record date. Directors serve until the 2027 annual meeting.
A 20-year lease with Anthropic at Justified Data expected to generate approximately $19 billion of contracted revenue over the initial term, and a definitive agreement to sell the entire Abernathy joint venture interest to an investor group led by Fluidstack. The chief executive noted that the customer commitment had been expected by around the end of the second quarter, which is when it was delivered. Execution of the lease is resolved; commencement of the lease and completion of the sale are not, and both appear above as dated items.
Reported August 5, 2026 with the Form 10-Q the same day, ahead of the mid-August estimate this card carried.
| Line | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| HPC lease revenue | $31.9M | nil | 71% of revenue, from nothing a year ago |
| Digital asset revenue | $12.8M | $47.6M | Down 73%. Mining is now the minority line |
| Total revenue | $44.8M | $47.6M | Roughly flat, and entirely different in composition |
| Operating loss | ($140.5M) | ($15.6M) | SG&A of $112.4M against $10.0M is most of the move |
| Change in fair value of warrants | ($755.7M) | nil | Non-cash. It grows when the share price rises |
| Net loss | ($940.8M) | ($18.4M) | Larger than the whole of FY2025 |
The headline loss is not the operating result and should not be read as one. Of $940.8M, the warrant mark is $755.7M and interest expense $56.4M; the operating loss is $140.5M. The warrant line is the accounting mirror of a rising share price, so a quarter in which the equity performed well produces a larger loss. Cash and restricted cash ended at approximately $3.0 billion.
Capacity moved, and the credit support turned on. 81 MW of revenue-generating critical IT capacity at Lake Mariner at June 30, with CB-3 delivered in early July taking it to 102 MW and thereby satisfying the conditions for $600 million of Google’s credit support for Fluidstack’s lease obligations to become effective. A further 336 MW is under construction across CB-4 and CB-5, within the stated $8–10M per critical IT MW guidance.
Residual risk: the warrant mark cuts both ways and will reverse against a falling share price, so neither direction of that line is an operating signal. SG&A at $112.4M in one quarter against $44.8M of revenue is the figure to watch next, and the release does not decompose it here.
Source: Form 8-K under Items 2.02, 7.01 and 9.01 with Exhibit 99.1, and Form 10-Q, both August 5, 2026. Filed
Every category reviewed appears as a row, including those that produced catalysts, which read across by title and ID. A category checked and found empty is recorded rather than omitted.
| Category | Status | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Covered above | Second quarter 2026 results (R15), third quarter 2026 results (D4), FY2026 annual report on Form 10-K (D5), first quarter 2026 results released (R11), FY2025 annual report filed (R7). |
| Product launches | None | The company leases data center capacity and mines bitcoin; it ships no product. The nearest equivalent is delivery of a building, carried as CB-4 and CB-5 delivery and rent commencement (D3). |
| Investor days | None | No investor day is announced. The company's events page hosts quarterly earnings calls only, and no Form 8-K to July 31, 2026 announces one. |
| Regulatory decisions | Covered above | Morgantown generating station acquisition completes (D1), which requires Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval; NYISO approval gates Lake Mariner beyond roughly 500 MW (S5). |
| Lawsuits | Not established | Not examined. Federal and state court dockets were not searched. The FY2025 Form 10-K legal proceedings item was read and discloses no material pending proceeding, but that is the issuer's own account rather than a docket check. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Macro events | Covered above | Next bitcoin halving (D9). Residual bitcoin exposure on a shrinking fleet (S8) carries the continuous price exposure. |
| Industry conferences | Not established | Not examined. No conference organizer's published schedule was checked for company participation. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Management changes | None | No Form 8-K under Item 5.02 was filed between October 1, 2025 and July 31, 2026. Paul Prager remains chairman and chief executive and Patrick Fleury chief financial officer, both named in the May 8, 2026 results release. |
| Buybacks | None | No repurchase program is disclosed in the FY2025 Form 10-K or the first quarter Form 10-Q. Treasury stock of 24,468,750 shares arises from earlier transactions. Capped call transactions exist over the 2030 and 2031 notes, but they offset conversion dilution rather than authorise repurchase. |
| Dividends | None | No common dividend has been declared or paid, and the FY2025 Form 10-K states the company does not currently intend to pay one. No preferred stock was outstanding at March 31, 2026. |
| Major contracts | Covered above | Anthropic lease executed and Abernathy sale agreed (R14), Akela Fluidstack leases signed (R1), Abernathy joint venture agreement entered (R4), initial Anthropic capacity placed in service at Justified Data (D7). |
| Convertible and other financings | Covered above | 2030 senior secured notes issued (R3), 2031 convertible notes issued (R2), 2032 convertible notes issued (R5), delayed-draw bridge facility entered (R8), revolving credit facility entered (R10), underwritten equity offering closed (R9), the at-the-market program is exhausted (S7). |
| Mergers and acquisitions | Covered above | Hawesville site acquired (R6), Muskie Data Campus acquired (R12), Morgantown generating station acquisition completes (D1), Abernathy joint venture sale completes (D2). |
| Index membership | Not established | Not examined. No index provider's published methodology or rebalance schedule was checked. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Analyst coverage | None | Checked against two aggregators on August 4, 2026. Twelve firms carry a dated, attributed rating or target, with targets from $30 to $72, but no coverage event is scheduled and none of them produces a dated catalyst. |
| Short interest | Not established | Not examined. Exchange short interest reports were not retrieved. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Credit rating actions | Not established | Not examined. The $3.2 billion 2030 senior secured notes are a rated-market instrument and may carry agency ratings, but no rating agency publication was consulted. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Segment reporting | None | The FY2025 Form 10-K and first quarter Form 10-Q present revenue in two lines, digital assets and HPC leases, within a single reportable segment. No segment split of costs or assets is disclosed. |
| Beneficial ownership changes | Covered above | Filings by Vanguard, BlackRock, Bank of Nova Scotia, Citadel Securities, Jane Street and Lone Pine Capital were swept under both schedule spellings and are now quantified: Bank of Nova Scotia is the largest disclosed holder at 7.70% and rising, while BlackRock at 4.5% and Vanguard Portfolio Management at 4.52% both fell below the threshold at the June 30, 2026 event date, and Citadel Securities and Jane Street crossed it in both directions three times in six months. The only Schedule 13D positions are Paul Prager at 10.7% and Bayshore Capital at 4.9%, neither amended since August 2025; the dilution overhang of 264 million shares (S2) carries the structural share-count effect. Positions below the 5% reporting threshold are not established. |
Sits across every other catalyst rather than beside them.
Every catalyst on this calendar is read against a share count that can rise by more than half without the company selling a single new share into the market. That is the overlay: the outcomes above change the value of the enterprise, and this changes how much of it each holder owns.
| Source | Shares | Strike | Working | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 convertible notes | 58,962,250 | $8.48 | 500,000 units × 117.9245 per $1,000 | Estimate from stated conversion rate |
| 2031 convertible notes | 80,460,200 | $12.43 | 1,000,000 units × 80.4602 per $1,000 | Estimate from stated conversion rate |
| 2032 convertible notes | 51,410,618 | $19.94 | 1,025,000 units × 50.1567 per $1,000 | Estimate from stated conversion rate |
| Google warrants | 73,580,000 | $0.01 | stated in the filing | Filed Form 10-K; Form 10-Q |
| Total potential | 264,413,068 | n/a | 53.4% of 495,532,645 outstanding | Estimate sum of the above |
Treat 53.4% as a ceiling rather than a forecast. The company may settle conversions in cash at its election. Capped calls bought for $60.0 million and $100.6 million offset dilution on the 2030 and 2031 notes up to cap prices of $12.80 and $18.76. At the August 18, 2026 close of $15.62 the 2032 notes remain out of the money at $19.94, while the 2030 and 2031 notes are in the money and the price has fallen back below the $18.76 cap, so the 2031 capped call offsets dilution again; the $12.80 cap on the 2030 capped call is still passed. The Google warrants are the firm part: struck at $0.01 and automatically exercised on a net basis at expiry if in the money, so that 73,580,000 block is close to certain rather than contingent.
The equity side has already moved. Shares outstanding went from 425,050,328 at March 31, 2026 to 495,532,645 at May 5, 2026, a rise of 16.6% in five weeks, through an underwritten offering of 54,510,000 shares at $19.00 and 10,326,000 at-the-market shares for $190.9 million. That at-the-market program is now exhausted, which removes the quiet route and means the next equity raise will be an announced event in its own right.
Debt does not dilute but it does rank ahead. Of the $5,290.0 million outstanding at March 31, 2026, the $3,200.0 million of 2030 senior secured notes sit against the Lake Mariner buildings specifically, through security over Wulf Compute and its guarantors. A stress case at Lake Mariner therefore reaches the equity before it reaches most of the debt.
What would prove this read wrong, stated in advance. Each trigger is settleable from a document; an unquantified threshold is not a test.
| # | If this happens… | …this was wrong | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The second or third quarter 2026 Form 10-Q reports HPC lease revenue below the $21.0 million recorded for the first quarter of 2026. | The reading that lease revenue ramps monotonically as buildings energize. | Untriggered |
| 2 | Any Form 8-K or periodic report discloses termination, or notice of termination, of a Fluidstack or Anthropic lease. | The reading that the contracted book is durable and that the counterparties are committed. | Untriggered |
| 3 | The FY2026 Form 10-K carries a going concern paragraph, or reports a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting. | The reading that a $3.09 billion cash balance makes the negative equity position a presentational matter rather than a solvency one. | Untriggered |
| 4 | A periodic report states that CB-4 and CB-5 will not deliver and commence rent during calendar 2026. | The reading that delivery is broadly on the announced schedule. | Untriggered |
| 5 | The Abernathy joint venture sale is reported as terminated, or completes at consideration below the $434.8 million carrying value at March 31, 2026. | The company's statement that the sale monetises its investment at a premium to invested capital. | Untriggered |
| 6 | A Form 8-K or periodic report discloses that the Morgantown agreement has been terminated, or the FY2026 Form 10-K still reports it as pending. | The reading that the owned-generation leg of the strategy is executable on the announced timetable. | Untriggered |
| 7 | A registration statement or prospectus supplement registers common stock for sale, or a Form 8-K announces an underwritten offering, before December 31, 2026. | The reading that the April 2026 raise and the $250 million revolver fund the program through the year. | Untriggered |
| 8 | A periodic report or Form 8-K discloses that the credit support behind the Anthropic lease has not been documented, or describes that support as other than investment grade. | The reading that the $19 billion contracted revenue figure rests on a rated counterparty. | Untriggered |
| 9 | The New York Independent System Operator interconnection queue shows either Kintigh 345 kV request, queue 1670 or 1732, withdrawn. | The reading that Lake Mariner has a settled path to approximately 500 MW. | Untriggered |
Every ID in one table, gapless within each class. Must match the cards above exactly: same IDs, same count, same order. Links point at title slugs so they survive renumbering.
| Tag | What it asserts |
|---|---|
| Filed | Stated in an SEC filing or company release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, with the issuer named in the Source line. Used here for the New York Independent System Operator interconnection queue. |
| Estimate | Derived or inferred here. The arithmetic is shown. |
| Open | Expected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way. |
| Market | Price, volume, float, published targets and ratings. Stamped with the close or publication date. |
| Press | Reported by a named publication that is neither the issuer nor an analyst, cited by outlet and date. Corroborates; never the sole basis for a material claim. |
| Social | Publicly posted by a named account, cited by handle and date. Asserts that the statement was made, never that it is true. |
| Level | Means |
|---|---|
| High | Date is company-announced, protocol-defined, or statutorily fixed. |
| Medium | Date inferred from filing cadence or a stated deadline window. |
| Low | Date is a judgment call. Could move by a quarter or more. |
Reporting dates carry the Estimate tag and rest on this issuer's own cadence: annual reports filed March 20, 2024, March 3, 2025 and February 27, 2026; quarterly reports filed August 8, 2025, November 10, 2025 and May 8, 2026. The spread is roughly three weeks around the same point each quarter, which supports Medium confidence and no better. Where a company statement gave a window that has since passed, as with the Morgantown completion expected in the second quarter of 2026, the card records the statement and the fact the window closed rather than substituting a new estimate.
Confidence rates timing, never outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can be a coin flip; a Low-confidence one can be near-certain in direction.
Impact is independent of confidence. A High-impact, Low-confidence item is the most important kind here: it matters enormously and could land any time. Initial Anthropic capacity placed in service at Justified Data (D7) is the clearest example on this calendar.
Primary filings and company releases first, with form type and date.
| Source | Date | What it settles |
|---|---|---|
| Form 10-K, FY2025 | Feb 27, 2026 | Campuses, capital structure, backstop conditionality, related-party leases, subsequent events |
| Form 10-Q, Q1 2026 | May 8, 2026 | Deficit equity, revolver terms, at-the-market exhaustion, share count, Abernathy carrying value |
| Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 | Jul 6, 2026 | Anthropic lease and Abernathy sale agreement |
| Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 | May 26, 2026 | Muskie Data Campus acquisition and Kentucky Power substation |
| Form 8-K, Item 5.07 | Jun 10, 2026 | Annual meeting of June 9, 2026 and the 2027 meeting date reference |
| Form 8-K | Apr 16, 2026 | Underwritten offering terms and closing |
| Form 8-K | Mar 16, 2026 | Delayed-draw bridge facility |
| Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 | Feb 2, 2026 | Hawesville and Morgantown announcements |
| Q1 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 | May 8, 2026 | Energized capacity, CB-3 to CB-5 schedule, pipeline megawatts |
| Century Aluminum Company, Form 8-K | Feb 2, 2026 | Hawesville consideration of $200,000,000 cash and the 6.8% interest |
| NYISO interconnection queue | Aug 3, 2026 | Load interconnection requests 1670, 1683, 1732 and 1733 |
Filings were swept against Central Index Key 0001083301 rather than the ticker, which is what carries the search across the two former registrant names on this issuer's record, Chromaline Corp and Ikonics Corp. The complete index holds 1,228 filings from April 7, 1999 to August 10, 2026. Both spellings of the beneficial-ownership schedules were included: 85 filings carry the legacy prefix and 18 the form the Commission has emitted since December 2024, and a sweep matching only the older spelling would have missed all 18. Exhibit lists were enumerated rather than form types alone, which is how the Century Aluminum consideration was reached. Full-text search was used to find the company named inside other parties' filings.
Late-filing notifications were checked for absence as much as presence. Across those 1,228 filings the index holds exactly one: an NT 10-K filed May 3, 2023 for the period ended December 31, 2022, two days before a Form 10-K/A. None has been filed since, and none has ever been filed for a quarterly report. A company that has changed name twice and filer status once is exactly the case where a missing notification would matter, so the count is stated rather than the bare negative.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission eLibrary was attempted on August 3, 2026 and did not return data to an automated request. No docket reference for the Morgantown authorisation under Federal Power Act Section 203 has therefore been established, and the status of that approval rests on the company's own statements. This is a gap rather than a finding of absence.
Federal and state court dockets were not searched, so lawsuits read Not established above. No index provider's methodology or rebalance calendar was checked. No rating agency publication was consulted, so any ratings on the 2030 senior secured notes are unknown. Exchange short interest reports were not retrieved. Analyst coverage was checked against two aggregators on August 4, 2026 and twelve firms carry a dated, attributed rating or target; the company’s own statement of who follows it was not read, so whether any of them has ended coverage is not established. No conference organizer's published schedule was checked for company participation.
The Southwest Power Pool, PJM and Kentucky interconnection records were not retrieved, so the Abernathy, Hawesville, Muskie and Morgantown capacity figures rest on company statements alone; only the New York sites are corroborated by grid data. Kentucky Public Service Commission and Maryland Public Service Commission records were not examined. No earnings call transcript was read.
On date coverage, the sweep reaches August 17, 2026 and the calendar carries no catalyst arising after that date. Second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026 were filed on August 5, 2026 and are carried in the resolved sequence, so the reported figures now reflect the April equity raise and the July transactions.
Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.
Repriced to the 18 August close. $18.83 → $15.62, a fall of 17.05% from the 3 August basis. Two statements move with it. The underwritten equity offering of April 2026, priced at $19.00, was 0.9% above the previous basis and is now 21.6% above the market. And the capped-call statement had gone false rather than stale: the price had just passed the $18.76 cap on the 2031 capped call and the document said that hedge stops offsetting dilution, whereas at $15.62 it is back below the cap and the hedge offsets again. The $12.80 cap on the 2030 capped call is still passed and the 2032 notes stay out of the money at $19.94. Market
The record was read to August 17, 2026. Morgan Stanley filed an initial Schedule 13G on August 13, 2026 at 30,388,221 shares and 6.1%, carried in the companion report’s register; two Forms 4 of August 17 are a director’s open-market purchases and an officer’s scheduled vesting. No dated catalyst resolved and no timing elapsed, so the counts stand at nine dated, eight standing and fifteen resolved. The date-coverage statement moves from July 31 to August 17, 2026. Filed
Second quarter 2026 reported August 5, 2026, ahead of the mid-August estimate, with the Form 10-Q the same day. Carried as second quarter 2026 results (R15). HPC leasing overtook mining: lease revenue of $31.9M against digital asset revenue of $12.8M, or 71% of a $44.8M total, where a year earlier leasing was nil.
The headline loss is four fifths a non-cash warrant mark and must not be read as an operating result. Net loss $940.8M, of which the change in fair value of warrants is $755.7M and interest expense $56.4M; the operating loss is $140.5M. The warrant line is the accounting mirror of a rising share price, so it grows when the equity does well and reverses when it does not. Cash and restricted cash ended at approximately $3.0 billion.
FERC has authorized the Morgantown acquisition. That card recorded the transaction as overdue with approvals including FERC outstanding, and the approval is now granted. It is not moved to resolved: its own condition was approval granted and closing announced, and no closing has been announced. The card is restated to say which half has happened.
Capacity and credit support. 81 MW revenue-generating at June 30, with CB-3 delivered in early July taking it to 102 MW and triggering $600M of Google’s credit support for Fluidstack’s lease obligations. A further 336 MW is under construction across CB-4 and CB-5, CB-4’s first data hall in commissioning.
The Abernathy consideration is now stated at approximately $530 million for the entire 50.1% interest, where the agreement was previously carried without a figure. The Anthropic lease and the Muskie acquisition were already carried from the July 6 filings and are not re-announced; the release adds that the Anthropic term reaches approximately $33 billion if both five-year extensions are exercised.
The filing sweep reaches August 10, 2026 across 1,228 filings, against 1,225 to August 3 at the previous entry. The index paginates, at a current view of 1,000 and one overflow file of 228, and both halves were re-read. The price was not restruck: the pricing basis stays at the August 3, 2026 close.
An absence was asserted that is not there. The null table read analyst coverage and short interest together as one unexamined category, so a reader could not tell which of the two had been looked at. Twelve firms carry a dated, attributed rating or target, eleven of them acting since May 27, 2026 and four of those initiating coverage. The absence was a failure of the search rather than a fact about the company, which is the heavier of the two errors: a reader was told the coverage did not exist.
The null table now states the two separately, and the coverage is set out in the research report with the analyst, the date, the rating, the target and the price at publication. The twelve actions with the analyst, the date, the rating, the target and the price at publication, which is the close on the last trading day before each action. Three of the twelve underwrote the 47,400,000-share offering of April 16, 2026, whose prospectus supplement discloses a conflict of interest under FINRA Rule 5121, and the table names which. Targets run from $30 to $72 against the $18.83 close. Two services publish a consensus and disagree, at $38.39 over 18 analysts and $34.74 over 20; both are reported and no center is computed here.
The filing sweep was re-run to today. The complete index holds 1,225 filings from April 7, 1999 to August 3, 2026, up from 1,223 to 31 July, the two additions being Forms 4 of August 3, 2026 reporting derivative settlements rather than open-market trades. The single NT 10-K of May 3, 2023 remains the only late-filing notification across the whole index.
Known gaps. Exchange short interest reports were still not retrieved. The company's own statement of who follows it was not read, so whether any covering firm has ended coverage is not established.
Repriced to the August 3, 2026 close and the register quantified. The 3 August session closed while this file was being assembled, so the basis moves July 31, 2026 → August 3, 2026 and the price $17.66 → $18.83, up 6.63%. The July offering at $19.00 is now only 0.9% above the market, and the price has passed the $18.76 cap on the 2031 capped call. The beneficial-ownership schedules were named but not quantified when this file was first assembled today, and are now read. The horizon band boundaries do not move, being a convention this document adopted for dividing near from far rather than a measurement.
Built from the company's filings on EDGAR under Central Index Key 0001083301, swept across the complete index of 1,223 filings from April 1999 to July 31, 2026. The load-bearing documents are the FY2025 Form 10-K of February 27, 2026, the first quarter Form 10-Q of May 8, 2026, and the Current Reports of 2 February, 16 March, 16 April, 26 May, 10 June and July 6, 2026 with their exhibits. Grid data comes from the New York Independent System Operator load interconnection queue, retrieved August 3, 2026. Century Aluminum's Current Report of February 2, 2026 supplied the Hawesville consideration, which the issuer's own filing does not state.
Pricing basis is the close of August 3, 2026 at $18.83, the most recent completed session.
Conventions fixed at construction. Dated items are ordered by expected date and banded 0–3, 3–6 and 6–12 months with a fourth context band beyond twelve months; standing conditions are ordered by materiality; resolved items are ordered by resolution date, earliest first. Anchors are permanent title slugs rather than ID numbers. Every reporting date is an estimate from this issuer's own filing cadence and is tagged as such. Where a company statement gave a window that has since passed, the card records both rather than re-forecasting.
Known gaps in this version. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission eLibrary could not be queried on August 3, 2026, so the Morgantown authorisation has no docket reference. Court dockets, index provider methodologies, rating agency publications, short interest reports and conference schedules were not examined, and five categories read Not established as a result. Only the New York sites are corroborated by grid operator data; the Texas, Kentucky and Maryland capacity figures rest on company statements. Second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026 were not yet filed.