VIP
VIP · Vulcan Infrastructure and Power Inc. · Catalyst Calendar · as of August 17, 2026
Banded 0–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 months, earliest first. Numbering is gapless and runs straight through the bands. The ID is a position, not a name; catalysts are referred to by title.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to speak, his first in the role following his first FOMC in July. This is the main scheduled opportunity to reset rate expectations between the July and September meetings. Warsh has signalled a preference for shorter statements and less forward guidance, which raises the information value of his speeches relative to his predecessors.
A signal that the three hawkish dissents do not represent the committee's direction would relieve pressure on high-beta small caps.
Confirmation of a tightening bias ahead of September compresses the cohort VIP sits in, independent of anything the company does.
Source: Reporting following the July 29, 2026 FOMC decision. Open
Fixed and automatic. The certificate of incorporation converts every Class B share into Class A five years after the Class A was first registered under Exchange Act Section 12. The company now states the date itself, three times in the June quarter report: the conversion is expected to occur on September 14, 2026. This card previously carried September 15, derived from the registration date rather than taken from a filing, and the company’s own statement supersedes the derivation. Filed
2,733,394 Class B shares are outstanding and Atlas holds 2,680,031 of them. The two figures are not the same and this file previously used the second where it meant the first. Atlas controlled 66.1% of voting power at June 30, 2026 and 65.8% at August 12, 2026 against about 23% economic ownership, and that supervote disappears on this date. On the company’s own pro forma, Atlas moves to roughly 23.1% economic and loses voting control outright. Filed
One share one vote removes the discount some investors apply to controlled companies.
Post-conversion and post-PIPE, no single holder controls the vote, which makes future consents slower and removes a takeover defense.
The PIPE was approved by written consent of majority voting power on 19 July, eight weeks before this supervote expires. A reasonable reading is that the transaction was timed to use that control while it existed. This is an inference from the sequence of dates; the company has offered no explanation of timing.
Source: Form S-3 (May 15, 2026) and S-3/A (June 12, 2026), Other Dual-Class Provisions; 424B3 (July 2026) for the voting figure. Filed
Triggered by the Class B conversion and reinforced by PIPE dilution. Requires a majority independent board and fully independent compensation and nominating committees. Nasdaq permits a transition period after status is lost. The reconstituted board appears designed to accommodate this: six of the ten seats carry explicit independence requirements. The company states it expects to cease to qualify as a controlled company on September 14, 2026. Filed
This is not a prospective compliance question. The company is already out of compliance and is running a cure period. The June quarter report discloses that Nasdaq issued a notice on April 29, 2026 confirming noncompliance with Listing Rule 5605(c)(2)(A), the audit committee composition requirement, and that the company is relying on the cure period under Rule 5605(c)(4)(B), under which it must regain compliance no later than October 12, 2026. That deadline sits two days after the PIPE outside date and nineteen days before the notes mature, so the board work this card describes has a hard date on it that this file did not previously carry. Filed
Removes a screening exclusion applied by some governance-sensitive funds.
Compliance friction if the sponsor-nominated slate does not satisfy independence tests on the expected timetable.
Source: 424B3 (July 2026) disclosing controlled company status; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, board composition terms. Filed
The 28–29 July meeting has resolved: held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with all three dissenters preferring a quarter-point increase. First time since September 2016 that three officials dissented in the same direction. September carries a Summary of Economic Projections. Reported beta is 3.02, and rates set the cost of the project-level debt the acquisition strategy requires.
Limited on this axis. The June dot plot puts year-end 2026 between 3.6% and 4.1% and markets price two increases rather than cuts, so a dovish surprise would help disproportionately but is not the base case.
A hike compresses this cohort hardest. Long rates already backed up on the July decision, with the 30-year above 5.19%. The September meeting opens the day after the Class B conversion, concentrating two independent sources of volatility inside the same 48 hours.
Source: FOMC statement and implementation note, July 29, 2026; June 2026 dot plot; Federal Reserve 2026 calendar. Filed
The most consequential item on this calendar, and it now has both ends. Conditions include effectiveness of the stockholder consent (R11), which cannot occur before on or about September 6, 2026, twenty calendar days after the definitive information statement was mailed; Nasdaq listing approval of the new shares; execution of security documents; and delivery of Mississippi collateral including a pledge of the owning entity's equity and a deed of trust. The window is therefore about five weeks wide, from roughly 6 September to the 10 October outside date, against a 31 October maturity.
The company calls the raise $39.4 million and the subscription agreements sum to $39,320,000. Both are correct and this file carries both: the issuer describes it as a “$39.4 million capital raise” in the 14 August results release, the 17 August press release subhead and the investor deck, while the four agreements total $15,000,000 plus $5,000,000 plus $5,950,000 plus $13,370,000. The difference is rounding in the issuer’s favour of about $80,000, and neither figure is a mistake. Roughly $33M redeems the 8.50% notes; going concern doubt becomes curable; board control transfers; 17,146,190 new shares issued. Filed
Early closing removes the solvency question and lets attention return to the development story. Sponsors on the register also change who is buying the stock.
Termination or slippage past 10 October returns the company to its pre-July position with three weeks to a $33.1M maturity and roughly $7M of cash. MIG may walk on uncured material breach, and the Mississippi collateral condition is a genuine execution item.
Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Item 1.01. Filed
Four Atlas nominees, the CEO, two independents identified by MIG, one independent identified by Atlas, and two identified by the company, one of which is Conversant's nominee. Directors Timothy Lowe and Charles Zeynel have tendered resignations effective at closing, null and void if the PIPE fails, which makes them a useful tell.
Named appointees with data center development or power M&A pedigree would validate the platform thesis faster than any press release.
Sponsors hold board seats, a right of first offer on future financings, a security interest in the assets, and incentive fees payable in cash or stock. Interests are broadly aligned with common holders but not identically aligned.
Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Items 1.01 and 5.02. Filed
Principal outstanding was $33,138,350 at June 30, 2026, after the May and June debt-for-equity exchanges and a further exchange of approximately $3.6M during the second quarter. It is 90% of total debt of $36.9M, the remainder being $3,740,000 of 10.00% notes due 2030. A redemption notice is required in advance under the indenture. Either redeemed from PIPE proceeds, or the company faces an event it has stated it cannot fund. No intermediate path has been disclosed. The 21-day gap between the PIPE outside date and this maturity is the tightest point on the calendar. Filed
The redemption is planned and unnoticed, and the company says so under a heading. Both the 14 August results release and the 17 August press release carry a section titled “No Notice of Redemption” stating that the release “does not constitute a notice of redemption ... and does not create any obligation on the part of the Company to redeem”. With the PIPE unclosed, the redemption is an intention with a condition in front of it rather than a scheduled repayment, and nothing in this calendar should be read as the latter. Filed
Redemption eliminates the highest-cost debt and removes the going concern trigger, leaving the $3,740,000 of 2030 notes plus the $10M MIG note.
Default and acceleration. The FY2025 10-K risk language contemplates bankruptcy or liquidation, in which case equity would likely be substantially or entirely impaired.
Source: Form 8-K, June 2026 (exchange agreements); Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 5, Debt; FY2025 10-K risk factors. Filed
The first balance sheet reflecting the PIPE and the notes redemption, and the first quarter under the new board.
Clean pro forma capitalization, positive cash position, and commentary on the acquisition pipeline from the new sponsors.
Continued operating losses, now visible without the debt overhang as a distraction. Q3 is a seasonally weaker power quarter in the Northeast than Q1, so the power and capacity line may not repeat its Q1 strength.
Source: Historical reporting cadence. No company confirmation. Estimate
The Q2 report was filed before the PIPE closed, exactly as this card expected, and what it says is more interesting than a simple repetition. Management states that projected operating cash flows are not sufficient to meet existing debt obligations and that this raises substantial doubt; it then states that, counting existing cash, digital assets, operations and the proceeds of the PIPE expected on closing, the Company believes that doubt has been alleviated. So the qualification has not been removed, and the alleviation rests on a financing that has not closed. Filed
The Q3 report is the first that can conclude the same thing without a conditional in front of it. A going concern qualification excludes a stock from many institutional mandates and index products, so removal can widen the buyer base independently of any operating improvement.
Clean removal alongside a repaired balance sheet is the clearest signal that the existential phase has ended.
Repetition of the language after the PIPE closes would imply that auditors view the remaining burn or the March 2027 redemption trigger as still threatening. Closing does not automatically cure it.
Source: Q2 2026 10-Q going concern note, August 14, 2026; Q1 2026 10-Q; FY2025 10-K. Filed
The June quarter turns this from an assertion into arithmetic. Six-month power and capacity revenue was $19,976k against a second quarter of $1,310k, which places roughly $18.7M of the half in the first quarter and $1.3M in the second. The line is seasonal and commodity-linked, not a growth annuity, and it is the only line that has produced cash. Power and capacity was 39% of a much smaller second-quarter total and 90% of the first-quarter one. Filed
A cold winter with tight New York capacity pricing improves cash generation while the AI story develops.
A mild winter or softer gas spreads removes the only cash-generating line and makes the Q1 2027 year-over-year comparison look sharply negative for reasons unrelated to strategy.
Source: Q1 2026 results; revenue composition per Form 10-Q. Filed
The first hard, dated, company-guided operational milestone against which development guidance can be scored.
On-time energization is evidence that the pipeline converts to real capacity, which is the point bears doubt most.
Slippage undermines the credibility of every other pipeline number, including the 654 MW figure the valuation argument rests on.
Source: Q1 2026 press release, May 18, 2026; Form S-3 prospectus, May 2026. Filed
First full audited year under the new structure, and the first without one-off asset sale gains. FY2025's $5.3M of net income was substantially produced by a $10.5M gain on the South Carolina sale, which will not repeat.
Clean audit opinion with no going concern paragraph, plus first disclosure of AI/HPC development capex and any contracted backlog.
Without the gains, FY2026 GAAP results will look materially worse than FY2025 even if the operating business improved. Expect headline framing that misreads the prior-year comparison.
Source: FY2025 filing cadence; FY2025 10-K gain disclosures. Filed
Begins after PIPE closing. Unlocks the second board reconstitution (D14), MIG's conversion rights (S15), the equity issuance freeze, and the $10M minimum liquidity covenant, and avoids the 130% redemption (D15). Interim progress may or may not be publicly disclosed.
Early approval removes a cliff-edge risk that will otherwise sit over the stock for two quarters.
Approval processes for changes of control at power generators can extend well beyond initial estimates, particularly where intervenors participate. Vulcan has a documented history of intervenor opposition in New York.
Correction. This card said the approvals were not specified and asked for them to be verified in the Schedule 14C (R11). They were specified on August 5, 2026. Both the preliminary and the definitive information statement identify them as (i) an application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under Section 203 of the Federal Power Act and (ii) an application to the New York State Public Service Commission under the New York Public Service Law. The reading carried here, “Section 203 approval, possibly with New York elements”, was right in both limbs and had already stopped being an inference when this file last stated it was one. Filed
Confidence stays Low, and for a different reason than before. The statutory basis is now known; the timetable is not. Section 203 and NYPSC proceedings for a change of control at a generator run to their own schedules, both admit intervention, and the company has a documented history of intervenor opposition in New York. Knowing which regulators must act does not date their action.
Source: Definitive Information Statement on Schedule 14C, August 17, 2026, and the Preliminary Information Statement of August 5, 2026, for the statutory basis; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, for the condition. Filed
Atlas's four nominees drop to one; MIG gains one nominee. A two-member Capital Committee forms with one MIG and one Atlas designee, the body that will drive acquisition decisions.
A tighter board with a dedicated capital allocation committee is a sensible structure for an acquisition vehicle.
Concentrates capital allocation authority in two sponsor designees who also receive project-level acquisition fees and promote incentives, a structure requiring genuine independent oversight.
Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Investor Rights Agreements. Filed
If Regulatory Approvals are not obtained by that date, the company must redeem the MIG convertible note at 130% of then-outstanding principal, including capitalized PIK interest, plus accrued interest. On a $10M note accreting at 10% PIK, principal by March 2027 would be roughly $10.7M, implying a cash call near $14M against a company that burned $11.4M in a single quarter in early 2026.
Approvals obtained well before the date make this a non-event and it leaves the risk picture entirely.
A forced outlay near $14M would likely require an emergency equity raise at whatever price prevails, which is the scenario the PIPE was meant to end.
Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Special Mandatory Redemption. Filed
Key comparison quarter: Q1 2026 delivered $20.8M of revenue on winter power pricing. Also the first quarter that could include a Mississippi contribution.
Any AI/HPC revenue line appearing for the first time, however small, is a genuine inflection.
A year-over-year revenue decline against that comparison, with still no AI/HPC line, makes the case that the story has run eighteen months without execution difficult to rebut.
Source: Historical cadence. Estimate
Following the 2027 annual meeting, MIG and Atlas each gain the right to nominate two directors rather than one, so long as each holds at least 7.5% of Class A on a fully diluted basis. The 2026 meeting was held June 24, 2026 with materials mailed on or about 12 May.
Continued sponsor holdings above the 7.5% threshold signal conviction, since the rights lapse if they sell down.
First meeting with one share one vote, a much larger share count and increasing sponsor representation. Also the likely venue for any request to increase authorized shares.
Source: DEF 14A filed ~April 30, 2026; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Investor Rights Agreements. Filed
No dated catalyst falls beyond the 12 month window. The MIG note forced conversion window (S15) may open in this period but is conditional on price and financing rather than dated, so it sits in standing conditions. The next Bitcoin halving is expected in 2028. Mining is a small and shrinking business in absolute terms, though its share of revenue swings widely with the seasonal power line: 9% of the first quarter and 50% of the second.
Ongoing and undated, most material first. These take “Why undated” in place of timing confidence. The first AI/HPC tenant (S1) is the item that would change what kind of company this is; nothing else on the calendar does that.
The step change event. Moves VIP from the un-contracted peer cohort, which is the group the company itself benchmarks against, toward the contracted cohort where TEV/MW multiples have been several times higher. The company describes only a path toward commercializing more than 100 MW of AI/HPC-ready capacity in the near term.
Judge any announcement on four things in this order: megawatts of critical IT load, term length, counterparty credit quality, and delivery date. A 30 to 60 MW deal with an investment grade or hyperscaler-backstopped counterparty would be transformative at this market capitalization.
Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding and exclusivity arrangements are not contracts and should not be priced as such. Watch also for deals contingent on financing the company has not raised.
Source: Press release, July 20, 2026. No guidance on timing. Open
Currently favorable. Late July guidance came in higher, not lower: aggregate 2026 capex across the top five hyperscalers is tracked near $700B to $750B, with Alphabet lifting the top end of its forecast to roughly $205B and Amazon guiding to about $200B. Next checkpoint is the late October reports, which land in the same window as the PIPE outside date and the notes maturity.
Continued mega-deals keep bidding up scarce energized capacity, and as the largest sites are absorbed, demand eventually reaches smaller ones such as Dresden.
A genuine capex deceleration would reprice un-contracted megawatts first and hardest. No sign of that in current guidance.
Source: Hyperscaler Q2 2026 earnings coverage, late July 2026. Market
Currently unfavourable, and the variable that changed in late July. Alphabet's capex raise met roughly a 7% share price decline, with Amazon, Meta and Microsoft falling alongside it amid scrutiny of infrastructure investment producing uncertain returns. The demand and multiple signals have separated: more money is chasing powered land while investors pay less for the companies supplying it.
If the market re-accepts high capex as value-creating, multiple compression reverses quickly and small un-contracted names are high-beta beneficiaries.
Multiple compression can proceed even while demand strengthens. VIP is among the smallest and least contracted names in the cohort, so it sits at the sharp end of the sentiment leg regardless of how healthy demand looks. Watch peer trading multiples rather than peer announcements; a contract announcement that fails to move a peer's stock is the clearest warning.
Source: Hyperscaler Q2 2026 earnings coverage and sector reporting, late July 2026. Market
Independent of both gates. Sixty megawatts of non-curtailable grid-supplied power at Dresden is what an AI tenant needs in order to underwrite a lease. It also sidesteps the plant's emissions cap, because the power comes from the grid rather than from burning more gas on site.
Execution converts Dresden from a site with power into a site a tenant can contract against, and is the most likely precursor to any tenant announcement (S1).
A proposed agreement is not an executed one. Terms, cost allocation and upgrade obligations remain undisclosed. Silence through year end would suggest friction.
Source: Q1 2026 results press release, May 18, 2026. Filed
Drives 90% of current revenue and is the only line generating cash today. The seasonal expression of this exposure is dated as winter NYISO power and capacity pricing (D10).
Tight New York capacity markets and wide spark spreads improve cash flow directly while the development story runs.
Compressed spreads eliminate the cushion. This is a commodity merchant power business carrying an AI infrastructure label.
Source: Q1 2026 Form 10-Q revenue composition. Filed
The stated strategy. MIG's partner described looking for the right public platform rather than a passive investment. Machine has roughly 700 MW under development and a pipeline above 1 GW; Atlas manages roughly 5 GW of merchant generation.
An acquisition at a lower TEV/MW than VIP's own trading multiple would be immediately value-creating and would prove the roll-up thesis.
Acquisitions at this scale require capital far beyond the PIPE. Expect equity issuance, project debt, or asset-level partnerships, all dilutive or encumbering. Sponsor incentive fees attach to these transactions.
Source: Press release, July 20, 2026; Form 8-K sponsor incentive terms. Filed
Not a catalyst but the most useful freely available signal. The 8.50% notes continue trading on Nasdaq under GREEL, unchanged by the rebrand and with the same CUSIP. The credit market prices the probability of repayment daily, and bondholders typically assess restructuring risk more accurately than equity holders.
Notes at or near par imply the market expects redemption, which is a cross-check on PIPE closing odds.
A material discount to par ahead of the maturity would signal doubt the equity market may not yet have priced.
Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Item 5.03. Filed
Request submitted before May 18, 2026. Studies of this scale typically run several quarters to over a year. Two hundred fifty megawatts would be more than double the entire current energized footprint and represents a large share of the 654 MW pipeline figure.
A favorable study with a credible delivery timeline substantiates the pipeline number and supports the low TEV/MW argument.
An unfavourable result, a long delivery horizon, or large network upgrade cost allocations would quietly shrink the pipeline. A study is not an allocation and an allocation is not an energized megawatt.
Source: Q1 2026 press release, May 18, 2026. Filed
Management disclosed continued discussions with multiple parties, including a possible sale, as of May 18, 2026. Mississippi is the larger long-run opportunity, 40 MW near term plus the 250 MW study request, but requires capital Vulcan does not have standalone.
A joint venture with a funded partner de-risks development and provides third-party validation of the site's value.
The site is now pledged to MIG via an equity pledge and deed of trust, so a unilateral sale is constrained by the note's negative covenants on disposing of collateral. Selling also cedes the pipeline underpinning the $91k/MW valuation argument.
Source: Q1 2026 press release, May 18, 2026; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, collateral and negative covenants. Filed
The November 2025 settlement resolved a four-year dispute and secured a final Title V permit, which is real de-risking. It requires a 44% reduction in permitted greenhouse gas emissions and a 25% reduction in actual emissions by 2030, which structurally caps how much additional behind-the-meter load Dresden can serve from its own generation. Coal ash pond remediation of $17.3M must be completed by November 2028.
Compliance is achievable if growth comes via grid-supplied non-curtailable power (S4) rather than by burning more gas. The permit and the interconnection are complementary, not competing.
The $17.3M remediation liability is a cash claim on a company with limited liquidity. Seneca Lake Guardian, the Committee to Preserve the Finger Lakes and the Sierra Club remain active and have participated in prior proceedings.
Source: Company release November 7, 2025; NYSDEC settlement terms; Q1 2026 10-Q environmental liability note; NY Appellate Division, Fourth Department, February 11, 2026. Filed
Currently tightening. Beyond the equity duration effect, the acquisition strategy requires project-level debt priced off the rate environment. Long rates rose on the 29 July decision, with the 30-year above 5.19% and the 10-year near 4.66%.
Peers have accessed attractive senior secured financing where hyperscaler credit backstopped the lease, one deal near 7.125%. A contract would unlock similar markets for VIP.
Without a contracted tenant, VIP borrows on its own credit, which is that of a company that has just avoided a default.
Source: FOMC statement, July 29, 2026; sector financing reporting, 2026. Market
Structural constraint on the New York asset. The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act was the legal basis for the 2022 permit denial, and the settled permit embeds declining emissions caps to 2030.
The settlement is durable and was framed by the company as the first of its kind in New York, so near-term legal risk is genuinely resolved.
Future state policy tightening, or a change in how the act is applied to data center load, could reopen questions the settlement appeared to close.
Source: NYSDEC rulemaking record; company release, November 7, 2025. Filed
Declining relevance but not zero, and the second quarter makes the share of revenue a misleading way to say so. Mining was 9% of first-quarter revenue and 50% of second-quarter revenue, $1,685k of $3,385k, not because mining grew but because power and capacity revenue fell seasonally from $18.7M to $1.3M. Across the half it is 14%. In absolute terms mining revenue fell 60% year on year and 29 bitcoin were produced against 110. Filed
The company held 103.0 bitcoin at June 30, 2026, up from 74.0 at the year end, carried at a fair value of $6,027k against a cost basis of $9,596k, so the treasury holding sits at an unrealised loss of roughly $3.6M and produced a $1,063k charge in the quarter. It is counted in the company’s own net debt calculation, and roughly 6,258 miners are pledged as first-priority collateral to MIG. Bitcoin therefore affects both liquidity and collateral coverage. Filed
Higher prices improve the value of retained BTC and the pledged fleet, and make a residual mining business worth keeping.
A sharp decline reduces headroom against the $10M minimum liquidity covenant, which explicitly counts Bitcoin.
Source: Q1 2026 10-Q; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, collateral terms. Filed
Reported beta is 3.02. The stock went from $1.71 (PIPE price, 17 July) to $2.94 (22 July) to $2.84 (23 July) to $2.45 (24 July) to $2.10 (31 July) and $2.16 (3 August), a 26.1% fall over the six sessions to 31 July, with volume on that session at roughly 3.7x the 71,320 share average. It has kept falling. The stock closed $1.65 on 10 August, the low of the series, and $1.84 on 14 August, the last completed session before this stamp and the basis for every market figure here. The round trip is now complete and past: the price sits 7.6% above what insiders paid in July, against 26.3% at the 3 August close and 72% at the 22 July peak close. Market
Post-PIPE the share count roughly doubles, which over time should improve liquidity and reduce gap risk.
Most PIPE shares carry registration rights beginning only after the first anniversary, so tradeable float expands less than share count does. Screener data is unreliable: one major quote page shows a 52 week range of $1.95 to $2.79, which cannot be correct given GREE closed at $2.94 on 22 July and $2.84 on 23 July, and its share count field conflicts with the filings. Note also that VIP is easily confused with Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC).
Source: Market data, August 14, 2026 close, the last completed session; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, registration rights. Market
Opens at the earlier of 18 months after issuance, roughly Q2 2028 on a Q4 2026 closing, or the date the company raises more than $75M of equity capital, which could occur sooner. The company may force conversion if VWAP exceeds 215% of the conversion price, about $4.60, for 20 of any 30 consecutive trading days, subject to conditions.
Forced conversion eliminates the note as a cash obligation and removes the 130% redemption risk entirely.
Conversion issues shares. The trigger price is roughly 119% above the 31 July close, so this is a good-outcome scenario, but the $75M equity raise condition implies dilution on that scale as its precondition.
Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Forced Conversion. Filed
Closed items kept for the record, ordered by resolution date, earliest first. A resolved catalyst takes the next free R number and does not carry a prior ID. Note the character of this list: these are predominantly risk resolutions and liability reductions rather than a record of compounding, which is a real but narrower competence than the forward strategy requires.
Produced a $10.5M book gain. Most Mississippi assets were also sold for $4.2M. Funded the operating deficit through 2026. This gain is what produced FY2025's positive net income and will not repeat; the contingent $18.0M remains a live receivable worth tracking.
NYSDEC agreed to issue a final Title V permit modification and renewal, ending a four-year dispute that began with the 2022 denial and ran through a November 2024 Yates County Supreme Court ruling in the company's favor. Requires 44% reduction in permitted greenhouse gas emissions and 25% in actual emissions by 2030. This is the reason the Dresden asset is investable: without an air permit there is no power plant and no behind-the-meter load.
Commenced March 11, 2026, amended 25 March, final results 9 April. Early consideration was pitched at a 45% premium to the 60-day VWAP of the 2026 notes, with a minimum tender condition of $11M or 30%. Pushed a slice of the maturity from October 2026 to 2030, reducing but not solving the wall: the 8.50% notes still stood at $36.7M at 31 March.
Executed 29 May and June 1, 2026 under Securities Act Section 3(a)(9), leaving $33,138,350 outstanding. The company stated it continued seeking further non-cash satisfaction of the balance. Demonstrates willingness to issue equity to retire debt, which is relevant to assessing future dilution if the PIPE were to fail.
Proxy materials mailed on or about May 12, 2026. No contested outcome reported. Removes the annual meeting from the near-term calendar; the 2027 meeting (D17) will be materially different, following Class B conversion and the PIPE, with sponsor nomination rights stepping up.
Form S-3 filed May 15, 2026, amended 12 June, File No. 333-295953. Registers up to $200M of Class A stock, preferred, debt, warrants, rights and units. Constrained by General Instruction I.B.6, the baby shelf rule, limiting sales to one-third of non-affiliate market value in any twelve month period. See section 5 for why the constraint matters and when it lifts.
Written consent of majority voting power approved the issuances under Nasdaq Rule 5635(b) and the Fourth Amended and Restated 2021 Equity Incentive Plan. Signed is not closed: this event is complete, the transaction it authorises is not, and that distinction is the premise of the PIPE transaction closing (D5).
Approved by the Compensation Committee on July 19, 2026, the same day the PIPE agreements were signed and the consent obtained; granted 20 July; vested in full 23 July. Issued under the Third Amended and Restated 2021 Equity Incentive Plan, existing authorized capacity rather than the expanded Fourth plan awaiting the consent. Worth $596,400 at the 23 July close of $2.84 and $441,000 at the 31 July close of $2.10.
The awards carry no performance or continued service condition. This is the second such award in 2026: in March, following the South Carolina sale, the same three executives received $100,000 Special Bonuses, roughly half in RSUs vesting within seven days. Forms 4 filed 24 July show sell-to-cover at $2.45, Kovler 35,721 shares and Irwin 21,154, described as non-discretionary tax withholding, which appears accurate.
Certificate of Amendment filed in Delaware July 20, 2026, effective immediately. No change to share counts, CUSIPs or shareholder positions; senior notes continue as GREEL. Useful as a research caution: historical data, filings and coverage are split across two names and two tickers, and some aggregators still carry the old business description. The stock fell 13.7% on its first day under the new symbol.
Filed on the statutory deadline this card predicted. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 was filed August 14, 2026, and a Form 8-K of the same date furnished the results release under Item 2.02. The date was carried here as a cadence estimate rebased to the 45 day deadline after an earlier “~Aug 12, 2026” elapsed with nothing overdue, and it was right to the day.
The quarter is materially worse than the one this calendar was built on. Total revenue of $3,385k against $12,861k, down 74%: datacenter hosting $390k, down 94%; cryptocurrency mining $1,685k, down 60%; power and capacity $1,310k, down 49%. Segment gross profit turned negative at $(4,784)k against $1,010k a year earlier, which is the single figure this file had no prior version of. Net loss $(9,897)k against $(4,118)k, loss per share $(0.58) against $(0.27) on 17,136k weighted average shares. Adjusted EBITDA $(6,701)k against $381k. Filed
The power line is seasonal in a way one quarter conceals, and this quarter is the trough. Six-month power and capacity revenue was $19,976k against a Q2 of $1,310k, which places roughly $18.7M of it in the first quarter. The winter NYISO pricing condition (D10) is therefore not a marginal item: it is where substantially all of the year's power revenue is earned. The company attributes part of the first-half result to non-recurring costs and revenue adjustments from the November 2025 electrical switchgear failure, adding back $2,072k of switchgear repairs and $1,732k of contract pricing settlements across the half.
The balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents $3,197k, down from $19,572k at December 31, 2025, plus digital assets of $6,027k, which the company reports together as $9.2 million of cash and digital assets. Total assets $39,268k against total liabilities $96,757k, a stockholders’ deficit of $(57,489)k and an accumulated deficit of $(398,932)k. Total debt at principal $36,878k, being $33,138k of 8.50% senior notes and $3,740k of 10.00% notes due 2030, against net debt of $27,654k. During the quarter approximately $3.6M of senior notes were exchanged for $1.4M of 2030 notes and 1,277,111 Class A shares. Filed
Going concern is stated both ways and both halves matter. Management states that projected operating cash flows are not sufficient to meet existing debt obligations and that this raises substantial doubt; it then states that, counting existing cash, digital assets, operations and the proceeds of the PIPE transaction expected on closing, the Company believes that substantial doubt has been alleviated. The alleviation therefore rests on a financing that has not closed. Reporting either half without the other misleads in opposite directions, and the removal of the going concern qualification (D9) is the item that tests it.
Source: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed August 14, 2026; Form 8-K, August 14, 2026, Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 furnished with it. Filed
The clock has started. The definitive information statement was filed on August 17, 2026 and states that it is being mailed to stockholders of record on or about August 17, 2026. Under Rule 14c-2 the actions approved by the written consent do not become effective until at least 20 calendar days after the statement is first sent, which puts the earliest effective date at on or about September 6, 2026. Estimate The date is arithmetic on a company statement that itself says “on or about”, so it is an estimate in the same degree the mailing date is.
That closes the gap this file could not compute. The preliminary statement started no clock, so the buffer in front of the 10 October outside date was not calculable from it. It is calculable now, and it is about five weeks: the consent cannot be effective before roughly September 6, the PIPE (D5) cannot close before the consent is effective, the outside date is October 10, and the senior notes (D7) mature October 31.
Correction. This calendar said the Regulatory Approvals were not disclosed. They were disclosed on August 5, 2026. Both the preliminary and the definitive statement identify them as (i) an application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under Section 203 of the Federal Power Act and (ii) an application to the New York State Public Service Commission under the New York Public Service Law. This file carried the reading “Section 203 approval, possibly with New York elements” as an analyst inference to be verified in the Schedule 14C. The inference was right in both limbs and stopped being an inference twelve days before this correction. The Regulatory Approvals (D13) and the falsification test in section 6 are both restated on the filed text.
What the definitive statement approves is what the preliminary one did: the PIPE issuance for Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(b), covering 17,146,190 Class A shares, a $10.0M senior secured convertible promissory note and a three-year warrant over 1,754,386 shares; and the Fourth Amended and Restated 2021 Equity Incentive Plan for Rule 5635(c), raising the authorized pool from 2,583,111 to 5,083,111 shares. The plan increase takes effect on the same twenty-day clock. At the July 17 record date there were 15,400,548 Class A and 2,733,394 Class B shares outstanding, so the PIPE’s Class A issuance alone exceeds the entire Class A count, and the Majority Stockholders held 1,505,351 Class A and 2,680,031 Class B, approximately 23.1% of capital and 66.2% of the total voting power.
Source: Definitive Information Statement on Schedule 14C, filed August 17, 2026; Preliminary Information Statement on Schedule 14C, filed August 5, 2026, for the Regulatory Approvals; Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Items 5.07 and Additional Information. Filed
All eleven categories appear as rows, including those that produced catalysts, which read across by title and ID. Listing all eleven is what makes this a proof of work rather than a reading exercise. Rows beyond the eleven are additional disclosure.
| Category | Status | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Covered above | Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q (R10), Q3 2026 results and Form 10-Q (D8), FY2026 results and Form 10-K (D12), Q1 2027 results (D16). |
| Regulatory decisions | Covered above | Regulatory Approvals (D13), Title V compliance and coal ash remediation (S10), New York CLCPA trajectory (S12). |
| Macro events | Covered above | Jackson Hole economic policy symposium (D1), FOMC decisions for September and October (D4), interest rates and infrastructure financing cost (S11). |
| Management changes | Covered above | Board reconstituted to ten directors (D6), board reconstituted to eight directors (D14). |
| Major contracts | Covered above | First AI/HPC tenant (S1), first sponsor-sourced powered land acquisition (S6), Mississippi joint venture, partnership or sale (S9). |
| Dividends | None | No common dividend has been paid or declared. With negative stockholders' equity of $50.2M and unresolved going concern doubt, none is plausible in this horizon. |
| Share buybacks | None | No program authorized. The MIG note's negative covenants and the $10M minimum liquidity covenant make repurchases impractical regardless. |
| Product launches | Covered above | The category does not apply to this business directly: infrastructure and merchant power with no product roadmap. The functional equivalents are capacity milestones, tracked as the NYSEG interconnection agreement execution (S4) and the Mississippi 40 MW energization (D11). |
| Investor days | None | None is scheduled. The IR events page stated no upcoming events at the as-of date. Plausible that new sponsors host one post-closing, but nothing is announced. |
| Industry conferences | Not established | Not examined against a conference organizer schedule or the company’s event listings, so no participation finding is made either way. Sector events matter mainly as venues where peers announce contracts that reset sector multiples, an indirect channel captured as willingness to pay for AI infrastructure exposure (S3). |
| Lawsuits | None | No class action has been filed. Pomerantz, Glancy Prongay and Rosen announced investigations in 2022 and 2023 relating to the Support.com goodwill impairment period. No filed consolidated class action has been identified and none appears in current disclosures. Investigation announcements are not litigation. Checked against current filings and docket coverage; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. |
| Activist ownership | Covered above | All 10 beneficial-ownership filings in the complete index were read on August 3, 2026, under both the SC and SCHEDULE form types. The Atlas group has been continuously on Schedule 13D since March 2021 and holds 4,185,382 shares as converted, 23.1% of Class A, per its fifth amendment of July 20, 2026. That amendment is the filing that discloses the subscription agreement and the board reconstitution, carried as the board reconstituted to ten directors (D6) and the board reconstituted to eight directors (D14). Two Schedule 13G statements exist, from 2021 and 2022, neither amended since. |
| Index inclusion | None | The issuer is not eligible for inclusion: market capitalization, negative equity and profitability screens exclude VIP from major indices. |
| Analyst coverage | None | No catalyst arises. The coverage set is the issuer’s own list of covering firms, read on its investor relations site on August 4, 2026, and it names two. Both are conflicted, from separate sources. B. Riley Securities acted as advisor to the company on the PIPE, disclosed in the 20 July release, and its analyst Lucas Pipes holds the only published target, $4.00 from July 12, 2024, lowered from $5.00 with a Buy rating maintained; that target predates the going concern disclosure, the exchange offer, the financing and the rebrand. Water Tower Research, whose analyst is John Roy, initiated on February 20, 2025 with no rating and no target; the firm describes itself as an issuer-sponsored research firm and states that a fee of up to $15,000 a month has been paid for the sponsored material on its site by the client company, so its conflict is the model it operates under. Vulcan discloses no engagement with it: a full-text search of the complete index of 421 filings under Central Index Key 0001844971, run August 12, 2026, returns the firm’s name in none of them. Stifel Nicolaus, whose last action is the downgrade to Sell of November 15, 2022, is not on the issuer’s list, which for a covering house reads as coverage it has stopped publishing. Weiss Ratings is model-derived and would not appear on such a list at all, so its absence there is not evidence. |
| Bitcoin halving | None | Outside the twelve-month horizon: next expected 2028. Mining is roughly 9% of revenue and declining, so relevance is diminishing regardless. Exposure tracked as the bitcoin price (S13). |
Sits across every other catalyst rather than beside them. Dilution here is a continuous process with at least seven identified channels, not a single event. The per-share effect of a successful strategy can still be negative.
| Channel | Shares or capacity | Timing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline, as-converted Aug 12, 2026 | 18,429,902 | Confirmed | 15,696,508 Class A plus 2,733,394 Class B, from the Form 10-Q cover page Filed |
| Executive RSUs (R8) | included above | Vested Jul 23, 2026 | Issued in July and therefore already inside the August 12 count, not additive to it Filed |
| PIPE shares at $1.71 | +17,146,190 | At closing (D5) | Roughly 48.5% of pro forma. New investors approach half the company. Filed |
| MIG convertible note at $2.1375 | +4,678,362 | Post D15 | Grows over time: 10% PIK interest compounds into principal, so the conversion share count rises every month the note is outstanding Filed |
| MIG warrant at $1.71 | +1,754,386 | 3 year term | Exercisable at issuance, subject to a 9.99% beneficial ownership cap until the Regulatory Approvals (D13). Cashless exercise available absent effective registration. Filed |
| Equity incentive plan increase | +2,500,000 | 20 days post D1 | Authorized pool rises from 2,583,111 to 5,083,111 Filed |
| Sponsor incentive shares | Undefined | Ongoing | Project-level acquisition fees and promote, payable in cash or stock. Quantum not disclosed. Subject to independent director approval. Filed |
| Equity Interest Payment Agreement, Atlas | Ongoing | Quarterly | Interest owed to Atlas settled in Class A shares rather than cash. Most recent 114,199 shares issued July 6, 2026 at $1.42 to settle $161,820. Filed |
| $200M shelf (R6) | Capacity | Available | Throttled by the baby shelf rule; see below Filed |
| Pro forma outstanding | 35,576,092 | At closing | Before conversion, warrant, plan or shelf issuance. The company states ~35.6mm on the same basis Filed |
| Fully diluted, identified | ~42,000,000 | Post D15 | Excludes shelf, sponsor incentive and future PIK accretion Estimate |
The company states the dilution in its own words rather than leaving it to be derived. On 15,400,548 Class A outstanding at the July 17 record date, the 17,146,190 PIPE Shares would increase the Class A count by approximately 111%, with a further 4,678,362 shares issuable on conversion of the $10.0 million note at $2.1375 and 1,754,386 on exercise of the warrant. The conversion figure reproduces exactly as 10,000,000 divided by 2.1375, which is the control on it. Filed
Two mechanics govern how quickly this table can be drawn down. Until Regulatory Approvals are obtained, Vulcan is prohibited from issuing equity or equity-linked securities without MIG's prior written consent, subject to limited exceptions: a genuine near-term brake on dilution, but also a constraint on raising equity to solve a problem without the new lender's permission. Separately, under General Instruction I.B.6 a company with non-affiliate public float below $75M may sell no more than one-third of that float in any twelve month period. At the 8 July measurement of $27.5M of non-affiliate value, that capped shelf sales near $9.2M rather than $200M. If price and float rise above $75M the full shelf unlocks, so dilution capacity expands precisely when the stock performs well.
What would prove this read wrong, stated in advance. Each test is derived from a claim made elsewhere in this file, so a triggered test invalidates a specific position rather than a general mood.
| # | If this happens… | …this was wrong | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A lease or colocation agreement is announced in an 8-K or press release, naming the counterparty, with a stated initial term of 10 years or more, before the PIPE closes. Estimate The 10 year floor is an analyst threshold, not a filed figure. | The premise that solvency gates the story, and that the first AI/HPC tenant (S1) sits downstream of the financing rather than beside it. | Untriggered |
| 2 | The PIPE closes and the going concern language still appears in the Q3 2026 10-Q. | The claim at removal of the going concern qualification (D9) that closing makes it curable. It would imply auditors view remaining burn or the MIG note redemption trigger (D15) as still threatening. | Untriggered |
| 3 | The Schedule 14C identifies the Regulatory Approvals as Federal Power Act Section 203 alone, with no state-level approval named. | The Low confidence rating on the Regulatory Approvals (D13) and the weight placed on the MIG note special mandatory redemption (D15) as an under-appreciated cliff edge. | Settled, not triggered. The statement names both a FERC application under Section 203 and an application to the New York State Public Service Commission, so the state-level element is present and the positions this test guarded stand. Filed |
| 4 | GREEL trades at or above par through September and October. | The framing that solvency is genuinely in doubt. The credit market would be signalling that repayment is expected. | Untriggered |
| 5 | Mississippi energizes 40 MW on schedule in Q1 2027. | The scepticism at the Mississippi 40 MW energization (D11) and the TVA 250 MW load study (S8) about whether pipeline megawatts convert, and by extension the discount applied to the 654 MW figure. | Untriggered |
| 6 | Aggregate FY2027 capex guidance from the four largest hyperscalers is revised down by 5% or more against the midpoint of prior guidance at the October reports. Estimate The 5% threshold is an analyst judgment, not a filed figure. | The demand leg, AI capital expenditure (S2), which currently reads as favorable and separable from the sentiment leg, willingness to pay for AI infrastructure exposure (S3). | Untriggered |
| 7 | The company completes a powered land acquisition without issuing equity or project debt. | The assumption that the roll-up strategy necessarily implies further dilution. | Untriggered |
Every ID in one table, gapless within each class, in the section order above. Links point at title slugs so they survive renumbering.
| ID | Catalyst | Timing | Impact | Confidence | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Jackson Hole symposium | Mid to late Aug 2026 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| D2 | Class B automatic conversion | Sep 14, 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D3 | Controlled company exemption lapses | Sep 14, 2026 | Low | Medium | Up |
| D4 | FOMC decisions, Sep and Oct | Sep 15–16, Oct 27–28 | Medium | High | Two-sided |
| D5 | PIPE transaction closing | ~Sep 6 to Oct 10, 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D6 | Board reconstituted to ten | At closing | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D7 | 8.50% senior notes maturity | Oct 31, 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D8 | Q3 2026 results and Form 10-Q | ~Mid Nov 2026 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D9 | Going concern qualification removal | ~Nov 2026 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D10 | Winter NYISO pricing | Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 | Medium | High | Two-sided |
| D11 | Mississippi 40 MW energization | Q1 2027 | Medium | Medium | Up |
| D12 | FY2026 results and Form 10-K | Mar 2027 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D13 | Regulatory Approvals | By Mar 31, 2027 | High | Low | Two-sided |
| D14 | Board reconstituted to eight | On approvals date | Medium | Low | Two-sided |
| D15 | MIG note redemption at 130% | Mar 31, 2027 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D16 | Q1 2027 results | May 2027 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| D17 | 2027 annual meeting | ~Jun 2027 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| S1 | First AI/HPC tenant | Undated | High | n/a | Up |
| S2 | AI capital expenditure, demand | Ongoing | High | n/a | Up |
| S3 | Willingness to pay for exposure | Ongoing | High | n/a | Down |
| S4 | NYSEG interconnection execution | Undated | High | n/a | Up |
| S5 | NYISO power and capacity prices | Ongoing | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S6 | First sponsor-sourced acquisition | Undated | High | n/a | Up |
| S7 | GREEL note price signal | Continuous | Medium | n/a | Neutral |
| S8 | TVA 250 MW load study | Undated | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S9 | Mississippi JV, partnership or sale | Undated | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S10 | Title V compliance and coal ash | Ongoing | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S11 | Interest rates and financing cost | Ongoing | Medium | n/a | Down |
| S12 | New York CLCPA trajectory | Ongoing | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S13 | Bitcoin price | Ongoing | Low | n/a | Two-sided |
| S14 | Float, volatility, market structure | Ongoing | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S15 | MIG note forced conversion window | Conditional | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| R1 | South Carolina land and power rights sale | Dec 2025 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R2 | Title V air permit settlement | Feb 11, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R3 | Exchange offer for senior notes | Apr 9, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R4 | Debt for equity exchanges | Jun 1, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R5 | 2026 annual meeting | Jun 24, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R6 | $200M shelf declared effective | Jul 8, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R7 | PIPE agreements signed and consent obtained | Jul 19, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R8 | Executive RSU awards | Jul 23, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R9 | Name change and ticker migration | Jul 24, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R10 | Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q | Aug 14, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R11 | Schedule 14C information statement | Aug 17, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
Maps the numbering used before this revision to the current IDs, so earlier log entries remain resolvable. The earlier scheme ran a single #1…#30 sequence for forward items, S1a/S1b/S2…S6 for structural items, and a C prefix for completed ones. Every ID moved when the current scheme was adopted.
| Was | Now | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| #2 | R11 | Schedule 14C information statement |
| #3 | R10 | Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q |
| #30 | D1 | Jackson Hole symposium |
| #4 | D2 | Class B automatic conversion |
| #11 | D3 | Controlled company exemption lapses |
| #10 | D4 | FOMC decisions, September and October |
| #1 | D5 | PIPE transaction closing |
| #7 | D6 | Board reconstituted to ten directors |
| #5 | D7 | 8.50% senior notes maturity |
| #12 | D8 | Q3 2026 results and Form 10-Q |
| #6 | D9 | Removal of the going concern qualification |
| #23 | D10 | Winter NYISO power and capacity pricing |
| #20 | D11 | Mississippi 40 MW energization |
| #24 | D12 | FY2026 results and Form 10-K |
| #13 | D13 | Regulatory Approvals |
| #14 | D14 | Board reconstituted to eight directors |
| #18 | D15 | MIG note special mandatory redemption at 130% |
| #26 | D16 | Q1 2027 results |
| #27 | D17 | 2027 annual meeting |
| #19 | S1 | First AI/HPC tenant |
| S1a | S2 | AI capital expenditure, demand leg |
| S1b | S3 | Willingness to pay for AI infrastructure exposure |
| #8 | S4 | NYSEG interconnection agreement execution |
| S3 | S5 | NYISO power and capacity prices |
| #22 | S6 | First sponsor-sourced powered land acquisition |
| #9 | S7 | GREEL note price as a solvency indicator |
| #25 | S8 | TVA 250 MW load study result |
| #21 | S9 | Mississippi joint venture, partnership or sale |
| #28 | S10 | Title V compliance and coal ash remediation |
| S5 | S11 | Interest rates and infrastructure financing cost |
| S4 | S12 | New York CLCPA trajectory |
| S2 | S13 | Bitcoin price |
| S6 | S14 | Float, volatility and market structure |
| #29 | S15 | MIG note forced conversion window |
| C1 | R2 | Title V air permit settlement |
| C2 | R1 | South Carolina land and 60 MW power rights sale |
| C3 | R3 | Exchange offer for 8.50% senior notes |
| C4 | R4 | Privately negotiated debt for equity exchanges |
| C6 | R5 | 2026 annual meeting of stockholders |
| C5 | R6 | $200M mixed securities shelf declared effective |
| C7 | R7 | PIPE subscription agreements signed and consent obtained |
| C9 | R8 | One-time executive RSU awards |
| C8 | R9 | Name change and ticker migration to VIP |
| Level | Means |
|---|---|
| High | Date is company-announced, protocol-defined, or statutorily fixed. |
| Medium | Date inferred from filing cadence or a stated deadline window. |
| Low | Date is a judgment call. Could move by a quarter or more. |
Confidence rates timing, never outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can be a coin flip; a Low-confidence one can be near-certain in direction. The senior notes maturity (D7) and the MIG note special mandatory redemption (D15) rate High because the dates are contractual, not because the outcomes are known.
Impact is independent of confidence. A High-impact, Low-confidence item is the most important kind here: the Regulatory Approvals (D13) matter enormously and could land any time within the window.
Defects identified but not resolved in this revision, with the element at issue named and the reason each remains open. A third party’s target must carry the date it was issued.
| Defect | What is absent | Reason it remains open |
|---|---|---|
| The earlier version of this calendar is unrecoverable | The earlier markup and figure set of this document. Only the current file exists under that filename. | The version this one was built from carried the same filename and has been overwritten by a later copy. No comparison against it can be run in either direction, so any figure dropped or added before this revision cannot be detected here. The companion report’s earlier version survived only because its filename changed at the same point. This limitation does not expire. |
| Tag | What it asserts |
|---|---|
| Filed | Stated in an SEC filing or company press release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, with the issuer named in the Source line: the FOMC statement and implementation note, the Federal Reserve calendar, NYSDEC permit records, and the New York Appellate Division order are carried on that basis. The company’s own investor relations coverage page is carried the same way, with the date it was read. |
| Estimate | Derived or inferred here. The arithmetic is shown. |
| Open | Expected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way. |
| Market | Price, volume, float and trading data, stamped with the close date. Also a third party’s published target or rating, attributed to the firm that issued it. |
The most important variable is undated. A first AI/HPC contract (S1) drives more of the outcome distribution than any scheduled item, and there is no basis for predicting its timing. The Regulatory Approvals are now disclosed, as a FERC application under Section 203 and an application to the New York State Public Service Commission, but their timetable is not, and that gate governs five separate items and a contingent cash call near $14M. Pro forma figures assume the PIPE closes exactly as signed, and the pro forma share count excludes the conversion shares that the company’s own as-converted debt presentation assumes. One reporting date is inferred from cadence rather than confirmed. Data is split across two identities: filings before July 20, 2026 are under Greenidge Generation Holdings and GREE, after under Vulcan Infrastructure and Power and VIP, with notes remaining GREEL throughout; several data providers still carry stale business descriptions, and the widely syndicated claim that the company has exited bitcoin mining is contradicted by its own filings.
Primary. Form 8-K, July 20, 2026 (PIPE, name change, board, equity plan, stockholder consent); Form 8-K, July 23, 2026 (Item 5.02, executive RSU awards); Form 8-K, June 2026 (debt for equity exchanges); Form 8-K, March 11, 2026 (prior special bonus); Forms 4, July 22 and 24, 2026; Schedule 13D/A, July 8, 2026 and July 2026 (Atlas); Forms 10-Q for the quarters ended June 30, 2026 (filed August 14, 2026) and March 31, 2026; Form 8-K, August 14, 2026, Item 2.02, and the results release furnished with it; Form 8-K, August 17, 2026, Regulation FD, and the investor presentation and press release furnished with it; Definitive Information Statement on Schedule 14C, August 17, 2026; Preliminary Information Statement on Schedule 14C, August 5, 2026; Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025; Forms S-3 (May 15, 2026), S-3/A (June 12, 2026) and 424B3 (July 2026), File No. 333-295953; DEF 14A (~April 30, 2026); company press releases dated 24 July, 20 July, 18 May, 9 April, 25 March, 11 March and March 5, 2026, and November 7, 2025.
Secondary. NYSDEC Greenidge Generation Station permit records; New York Appellate Division, Fourth Department, order of February 11, 2026; FOMC statement and implementation note of July 29, 2026, and the June 2026 dot plot; hyperscaler Q2 2026 earnings coverage; sector reporting on AI/HPC contracting, February to July 2026; the company’s investor relations coverage page and Water Tower Research’s own disclosure, both read August 4, 2026. Market data as of the August 14, 2026 close, the last completed session before this stamp.
Not checked. Intervenor filings in the NYSDEC docket beyond the settlement record; NYISO capacity auction results; the indenture governing the 8.50% notes beyond the summary in the 10-Q; the FERC and NYPSC dockets themselves, now that both are named; the Form 8-K of July 23, 2026, Item 5.02; and conference organizer schedules or company event listings, which is why industry conferences reads Not established rather than None.
Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.
This calendar said the Regulatory Approvals were not disclosed. They were disclosed on August 5, 2026, in a filing this file already cited for other things. Both the preliminary and the definitive information statement identify them as an application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under Section 203 of the Federal Power Act and an application to the New York State Public Service Commission under the New York Public Service Law. The reading carried here, “Section 203 approval, possibly with New York elements”, was right in both limbs. It was carried as an inference to be verified for twelve days after the company had verified it. The Regulatory Approvals card, the basis note, the limitations and falsification test 3 are all restated on the filed text.
The Class B conversion is September 14, 2026, not September 15. The June quarter report states the date three times. This calendar derived September 15 from the registration date, and a company statement supersedes a derivation. Both the conversion card and the controlled company card move, in the cards and in the summary table.
The dilution overlay was built on 2,680,031 Class B shares, which is what Atlas holds rather than what is outstanding. Outstanding Class B is 2,733,394. The baseline moves to the August 12 cover-page count of 18,429,902, being 15,696,508 Class A and 2,733,394 Class B, and the 210,000 executive restricted stock units stop being added to it because they vested in July and are already inside it. Pro forma outstanding 35,322,570 → 35,576,092, which is the ~35.6mm the company itself publishes.
The FOMC timing read “15–16 Sep, 27–Oct 28, 2026” in the card and “15 Sep, Oct 27, 2026” in the summary table. Two different malformations of one timing, in two places, neither matching the other. Both now read the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings.
Two catalysts resolved. The Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q (R10) closed on the filing of 14 August, on the statutory deadline this calendar had rebased to and predicted to the day. The Schedule 14C information statement (R11) closed on the definitive statement of 17 August.
The PIPE window now has both ends and it is about five weeks wide. The information statement is being mailed on or about August 17, the consent cannot be effective until at least twenty calendar days later, so the earliest closing is on or about September 6, 2026 against a 10 October outside date and a 31 October maturity. Nothing in this calendar could compute that before today, because the preliminary statement started no clock.
The quarter is worse than the one this file was built on. Revenue $3,385k, down 74%; segment gross profit turned negative at $(4,784)k against $1,010k, a figure this file had no prior version of; net loss $(9,897)k; cash $3,197k against $19,572k at the year end. The six-month power and capacity line of $19,976k against a Q2 of $1,310k puts roughly $18.7M of it in the first quarter, so the winter pricing condition is where substantially all the year’s power revenue is earned.
A live Nasdaq noncompliance is now carried. The company received a notice on April 29, 2026 for audit committee composition and is running a cure period expiring October 12, 2026, two days after the PIPE outside date. That was in the June quarter report and not in this file.
The senior note redemption is planned and unnoticed. Both August releases carry a “No Notice of Redemption” heading. Nothing here should be read as a scheduled repayment.
Repriced to the 14 August close. $2.16 → $1.84, the last completed session before this stamp. The issuer prices its own investor deck off the same session, which is an unusually direct corroboration of a basis this file chose independently.
Read but not applied: the Form 8-K of July 23, 2026, Item 5.02, remains unread. The FERC and NYPSC dockets are named but not examined. The investor deck is furnished under Regulation FD, so its comparables and its per-megawatt figures are the issuer’s own selections and are tagged as estimates where they are not independently filed.
The Q2 Form 10-Q catalyst was dated by estimate where a statutory deadline was computable, and it raised a false alarm because of it. It read "~Aug 12, 2026" and elapsed on August 13. Nothing is overdue. A Form 10-Q for a quarter ended June 30 is due 45 days after quarter end for a smaller reporting or emerging growth company, which EDGAR states this issuer is, so the date is August 14, 2026. Filed
The cadence agrees with the deadline rather than running ahead of it: the last four 10-Qs landed at +45, +44, +44 and +45 days, and last year's June quarter was filed on August 13, 2025. Estimate The item now carries the deadline and is tagged Filed, matching how a regulatory deadline is already tagged elsewhere in this calendar.
Nothing was filed and no figure moved. The submissions index was read on August 13, 2026 and shows nothing since a Preliminary Information Statement on Schedule 14C on August 5. This entry records a change of basis, not of fact.
Correction. This calendar said a filing had not been made, and it had. The Schedule 14C information statement (D1) was carried as “Overdue as of Aug 1, 2026” with the card opening “Not filed twelve days after the 8-K.” A Preliminary Information Statement on Schedule 14C was filed on August 5, 2026. The card is restated and its timing now reads that the preliminary is filed and the definitive is not.
The card is not moved to resolved, and that is deliberate. What was filed is the preliminary statement. The consent becomes effective twenty calendar days after the definitive statement is furnished, and the preliminary is subject to SEC review first, so the clock has not started. The next observable is the DEF 14C. Treating August 5 as starting the twenty-day period would be wrong in the company’s favour.
What the statement adds. The consent, dated July 19, 2026 against a July 17 record date, approved the PIPE issuance under Nasdaq Rule 5635(b) and the equity plan increase under 5635(c), both already carried here from the July 20 8-K. New: at the record date there were 15,400,548 Class A and 2,733,394 Class B shares outstanding, against which the PIPE’s 17,146,190 Class A shares exceed the entire Class A count; and the Majority Stockholders held approximately 23.1% of capital and 66.2% of the voting power. The Regulatory Approvals are still not specified.
The filing sweep was re-run twice, and the second run is the one that counts. The complete index under Central Index Key 0001844971 holds 421 filings to August 5, 2026, against 420 to July 24 at the previous entry, and the single addition is the PRE 14C. It was re-read immediately before this revision was written rather than only at the start of the pass.
Q2 2026 results and the Form 10-Q (D2) have not been filed. That card is timed ~August 12, 2026 from a consensus cadence estimate, and nothing is on the record as at this revision. No figure in either document moves, and the price was not restruck: the pricing basis stays at the August 3, 2026 close.
The July 23, 2026 close was stated at $4.05, and no session closed there. The close was $2.84, on 1,373,163 shares against a high of $3.36, and the highest close of the July move was $2.94 on 22 July. Two market data services read on August 4, 2026 return that close and that volume to the share, and the sessions either side rest on filings rather than on services: the 17 July close of $1.71 is the price the company’s own release of 20 July names as the close on the last trading day before the subscription agreements were signed, and the 24 July close of $2.45 is the price on the three Forms 4 filed that day.
In the float, volatility and market structure condition (S14) the path now reads $1.71 on 17 July, $2.94 on 22 July, $2.84 on 23 July, $2.45 on 24 July, $2.10 on 31 July and $2.16 on 3 August, and the fall over the six sessions to 31 July moves 48% → 26.1%. That item’s downside line set the 23 July close against a screener’s 52 week high of $2.79; it now sets the 22 July close of $2.94 and the 23 July close of $2.84 against it, and both sit above that high as squarely as the figure they replace. The executive RSU awards (R8) are worth $850,500 → $596,400 at the 23 July close. In the name change and ticker migration (R9) the fall on the first session under the new symbol moves 39.5% → 13.7%.
Nothing in the document disagreed with the wrong close, which is why it stood as long as it did. A figure that anchors others propagates into all of them, and each of them then checks out against it.
Repriced to the August 3, 2026 close. The basis moves July 31, 2026 → August 3, 2026 and the price $2.10 → $2.16, up 2.86%. No catalyst was added, removed or re-dated. Two figures that should have moved with the basis now do: the premium to the financing price in the float and market structure condition (S14), 22.8% → 26.3%, and that item’s own source line, 31 July → 3 August. The 4 August session had not closed: the price held $2.165 across reads at 12:24, 12:27 and 12:44 while volume reached 36,223 shares, against 179,722 and 266,806 in the two completed sessions before it, and Nasdaq reported the market open. The complete submissions index under Central Index Key 0001844971 was read again on August 4, 2026: it holds 420 filings, the most recent dated July 24, 2026, so nothing has been filed since the previous entry.
The analyst coverage row now rests on the issuer’s own list of covering firms, read August 4, 2026, which names B. Riley Securities and Water Tower Research. Both are conflicted and the conflicts have separate sources: B. Riley advised the company on the financing, disclosed in its release of July 20, 2026, while Water Tower Research is paid by the companies it covers, on the firm’s own description of itself, at up to $15,000 a month for the sponsored material on its site. Its analyst is John Roy and its initiation of February 20, 2025 carries no rating and no target. Vulcan discloses no engagement with the firm anywhere in the complete index of 420 filings under Central Index Key 0001844971. Stifel Nicolaus, absent from the issuer’s list with its last action at the November 15, 2022 downgrade, is recorded as coverage that has stopped; Weiss Ratings is model-derived and its absence from such a list is expected rather than evidence. Still no catalyst arises from any of it.
Known gaps. The price service returns 499 sessions under the current symbol and seven under the former one, where it still shows a stale $2.84. The former symbol is not used for any figure here. No note by either covering firm has been read, so what each discloses inside its own research is not established. Whether Water Tower Research still covers the issuer is unestablished too: the firm’s own list of covered companies, read August 4, 2026, runs to 83 names and does not include this one, while the issuer’s list, read the same day, does.
The claim that no notification of late filing had ever been made was false, and it was stated twice. A Form NT 10-K was filed on March 27, 2024 for the year ended December 31, 2023, under the predecessor name. Its stated reason was changes to the revenue recognition policy and to the principal market used to measure the fair value of digital assets, which is an accounting-policy delay rather than an administrative one. The inference built on the supposed absence, that an issuer carrying a going concern disclosure had nonetheless never filed late, does not survive it. What survives is narrower and is now what this document says.
Revised against a sweep of the complete submissions index by Central Index Key, which reached August 3, 2026 and found nothing filed after 24 July. Pricing is unchanged: no session has closed since the 31 July close, so no figure has been restruck and only the as-of stamp moves, August 2, 2026 to August 3, 2026.
1. All ten beneficial-ownership filings were read. The Atlas group has been continuously on Schedule 13D since March 2021, and its fifth amendment of July 20, 2026 is itself the filing that discloses the subscription agreement and the board reconstitution already carried as the board reconstituted to ten directors (D8) and the board reconstituted to eight directors (D16). Those items were sourced to the company's own current report; they now rest on the holder's statement as well.
2. Activist ownership joins the null categories as a covered row. Two Schedule 13G statements exist, from 2021 and 2022 and neither amended since, so on the record as filed there is no passive institution above 5%.
No catalyst was added or removed.
Not changed: the horizon structure, the section order, the nineteen dated catalysts, the fifteen standing conditions and the nine resolved items, the falsification tests, and the reading that everything turns on whether the financing closes.
The $4.00 B. Riley Securities target was carried without its date. It was issued on July 12, 2024, when the firm lowered it from $5.00 and maintained a Buy rating, and it predates the going concern disclosure, the exchange offer, the financing and the rebrand. It is now dated and qualified where it appears.
The filing sweep was re-run on August 3, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001844971 rather than against the ticker, which matters here because the issuer renamed from Greenidge Generation Holdings and the symbol changed with it. The complete submissions index holds 420 filings between February 10, 2021 and July 24, 2026 and does not paginate, so every absence recorded here rests on the whole record. Ten of those filings are statements of beneficial ownership, five under the SC form types and five under the SCHEDULE spellings, and all ten were opened. Nothing has been filed after July 24, 2026. One notification of late filing is on the index, a Form NT 10-K of March 27, 2024 covering the 2023 annual report, whose stated reason was changes to the revenue recognition policy and to the principal market used to measure the fair value of digital assets. None has been filed since, and none has ever been filed for a quarterly report.
Two open items are unchanged by the sweep and remain open. The Schedule 14C information statement (D1) is still unfiled, so the twenty day consent period has not begun and the buffer in front of the 10 October outside date continues to compress. The PIPE transaction closing (D7) has not occurred. Neither the senior notes maturity (D9) nor the Regulatory Approvals deadline (D15) has moved.
No catalyst changed class. The 31 July close stands unchanged, 1 August and 2 August being a weekend, so no repricing was required and the pricing basis is carried forward.
Known gaps at this version: the nature of the Regulatory Approvals condition remains undisclosed, so the Federal Power Act Section 203 reading is still an inference, and the Q2 and Q3 reporting dates remain cadence estimates.
Price basis moved from the 24 July close of $2.45 to the 31 July close of $2.10. Enterprise value $86M → $74M; near-term TEV/MW $600k → $515k; pro forma shares refined from an estimate to 35,322,570 on exact filing figures from the Atlas Schedule 13D/A.
A systematic sweep across 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, S-1, S-3, 424, 13D, Forms 3 and 4 and the NT series surfaced one previously missed filing: the Form 8-K of July 23, 2026 disclosing 210,000 rapid-vesting executive RSUs, added as a resolved item (the executive RSU awards) and carried into the dilution overlay. One notification of late filing is on the index, the Form NT 10-K of March 27, 2024, and none has been filed since. No company filing of any type has been made since 24 July.
The Schedule 14C information statement remained unfiled at this date, twelve days after the 8-K, so its confidence was cut to Medium and it now leads the dated list. The 28–29 July FOMC resolved as a hold at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9–3 vote with all three dissents favoring a hike, so the rate item was rewritten and the Jackson Hole symposium added. The AI sector item was split into a demand leg and a sentiment leg after hyperscaler capex guidance rose while hyperscaler equities fell.
The three falsification tests whose triggers could not be settled from a document were rewritten so that each names an observable event. The tenant test now requires a named counterparty and a stated initial term of 10 years or more, in place of a “creditworthy” counterparty. The approvals test now turns on whether the Schedule 14C names Federal Power Act Section 203 alone with no state-level approval, in place of a “routine ministerial” step on a “short” clock. The capex test now states a threshold, aggregate FY2027 guidance from the four largest hyperscalers revised down by 5% or more against the midpoint at the October reports, in place of guidance cut “materially”. Both thresholds are analyst judgments rather than filed figures and are tagged as such. All seven tests are now settleable from a filing, a date, a disclosed figure or a price.
Known gap at this version: the nature of the Regulatory Approvals condition remains undisclosed, so the timing confidence on that item and on the 130% redemption trigger rests on an inference rather than a filing.
Initial 3/6/12 month catalyst calendar. Structural choices fixed at construction: a gating chain placed ahead of the catalyst list, because the items are sequential rather than independent and most do not occur if either gate fails; confidence defined as timing certainty rather than desirability of outcome; and null categories stated explicitly rather than omitted.
Known gaps at this version: the Form 8-K of July 23, 2026 was not captured, so 210,000 executive RSUs were absent from the dilution overlay and no resolved entry existed for them. Two reporting dates were inferred from cadence rather than confirmed, and remain so.