MARA

4.8 gigawatts of potential capacity, no signed tenant, and a bitcoin treasury now pledged against the build

MARA · MARA Holdings, Inc. · Equity Research Report · as of August 19, 2026

Price $8.96 Market
Market cap $3.46B Estimate
Shares out 386,299,297 Filed
Pricing basis Aug 18, 2026 close Market

Framing

  1. MARA is mid-pivot. It is the largest publicly traded bitcoin miner by hashrate, but management now describes it as a digital infrastructure company. Essentially 100% of current revenue still comes from bitcoin mining. Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026
  2. The company lost $1.3 billion in Q1 2026 and a further $0.6 billion in Q2, against $1.3 billion for full-year 2025. Most of that is a non-cash mark on its bitcoin rather than cash leaving the business, and the sensitivity is large in both directions. Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026, May 11, 2026 and Feb 26, 2026
  3. MARA has not signed a single AI or HPC tenant lease. The pivot rests on contracts that do not exist. Management repeated at the Q2 results that it expects at least one before year-end 2026 and named no counterparty and no contracted megawatts. Open Q2 2026 shareholder letter, Aug 6, 2026
  4. On August 4, 2026 MARA pledged 18,750 bitcoin, more than half its treasury, as collateral for $750M of term loans. The funding route has changed from selling the treasury to borrowing against it, and the terms governing what a price fall would require are not disclosed. Filed Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026, Note 18

01Snapshot

Key figures, each tagged by provenance. Balance-sheet and treasury figures are struck at different dates and are shown with the date each was struck.

MetricValueBasis
Share price$8.96Market Aug 18, 2026 close, down 7.77% on the day
Market capitalization$3.46BEstimate 386,299,297 shares at the $8.96 close, Aug 18, 2026
52-week range$6.66 – $23.45Market Aug 18, 2026 close, across 251 sessions. Unchanged: the low of February 5, 2026 sits well inside a window ending here
Day range$8.91 – $9.545Market Aug 18, 2026, opened $9.36
Revenue (Q2 2026)$174.9MFiled Form 10-Q and 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Down 27% from $238.5M. Q1 2026 was $174.6M
Revenue (FY2025)$907.1MFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026
Net loss to common (Q2 2026)($609.7M)Filed Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026. $(1.60) per diluted share. Q1 2026 was $(1,259.6M)
Net income (loss), FY2025($1,311.9M)Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026. Roughly $(1.31)B
Cash$421.3MFiled Jun 30, 2026, from $513.7M at Mar 31, 2026 and $547.1M at Dec 31, 2025
Bitcoin held35,577 BTCFiled Jun 30, 2026, from 35,303 at Mar 31 and 53,822 at Dec 31, 2025. 2,422 mined and 2,213 sold in the quarter; none purchased
Bitcoin pledged as collateral18,750 BTCFiled Aug 4, 2026, ~$1.2B, against the two new term loans. It was 4,528 at Jun 30, 2026
Energised hashrate70.3 EH/sFiled Q2 2026, 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Up 22% year on year, below 72.2 EH/s at Mar 31, 2026
Convertible principal$2,297.2MFiled Jun 30, 2026, unchanged since the Q1 repurchases. Total debt $3,047.2M including the Aug 4 facilities
Total assets$4,348.9MFiled Jun 30, 2026, Form 10-Q, from ~$4.95B at Mar 31
Total liabilities$2,589.5MFiled Jun 30, 2026, Form 10-Q. Book equity attributable to MARA $1,660.6M, ~$4.35 per share on 381,888,004 shares

No enterprise value is shown here. The inputs a reader would expect it to combine are struck at three different dates rather than the four of the previous revision: market capitalization at the 18 August close, the balance sheet at 30 June, and pledged collateral and total debt at 4 August. Combining them would still produce a figure with no single date behind it. The valuation section builds the residual explicitly instead, showing each date as it goes.

02Business model

MARA buys electricity, runs it through ASICs, and earns bitcoin. That is the business paying the bills.

Management's strategic argument is that power, not compute, is the scarce resource: AI adoption is outpacing the ability of grids to expand, so whoever controls connected, energised sites holds the valuable asset. MARA spent years accumulating power-rich sites for mining, and the pitch is that those sites redirect to higher-value AI workloads.

The three legs, as at July 2026

LegWhat it isStatus
Bitcoin mining70.3 EH/s energised hashrate in Q2 2026, the operational baseOperating, generates all revenue
Starwood JVPartnership with Starwood Digital Ventures to build hyperscale AI campuses on MARA sitesAnnounced February 2026, in development, no signed tenants
Exaion64% stake in a French sovereign and private-cloud AI companyClosed, integrating

The Starwood joint-venture mechanic

MARA contributes a site to a joint venture at a pre-agreed value, and that contribution counts as equity credit before MARA writes any cheques. Starwood handles design, construction and tenant sourcing. The structure is what allows a company with $421.3M of cash to participate in a buildout costing $8M to $11M per IT megawatt without funding it alone.

Analyst assumption

Management's illustrative example: a 200 MW site valued at $200 million could leave MARA with 50% ownership generating $50M to $100M of annualised stabilised cash flow, on a 9% to 15% yield on cost, "for little to no incremental equity exposure beyond its site contribution." This is a hypothetical supplied by the company, not a signed deal and not guidance. It is an illustration of intent and carries no evidential weight on outcome. Filed Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026

The two acquisitions

Long Ridge Energy & Power, announced April 30, 2026: approximately $1.5 billion total transaction value including assumption of at least $785 million of debt, backstopped by a Barclays bridge loan. A 505 MW combined-cycle gas plant in Hannibal, Ohio (485 MW currently authorised for sale, rising to 505 MW in 2H 2026), plus 1,600+ contiguous acres in PJM. It contributes roughly $144 million of annualised adjusted EBITDA on 2H 2025 performance, at all-in operating costs below $15/MWh with ~76% of capacity hedged. Closing expected 2H 2026, subject to Hart-Scott-Rodino and FERC approvals. The purchase agreement carries a termination right exercisable by either party any time after November 30, 2026, or June 30, 2027 if specified regulatory conditions remain unsatisfied: a harder deadline than the 2H 2026 guidance implies. Filed 8-K, Apr 29, 2026; press release, Apr 30, 2026

MARA already operates a 200 MW bitcoin mine on that site, so Long Ridge wraps around existing operations rather than standing alone.

Matagorda County, Texas, closed July 2, 2026 simultaneously with execution and announced July 9, 2026: MARA subsidiary Volt Texas, LLC acquired MAT 1177 LLC from HIF USA LLC. The project company holds rights under purchase and sale contracts to acquire one parcel (the "Site Under Contract") plus title to an adjacent "Owned Site", and rights under a letter agreement with a utility for up to 2,000 MW. This is not 1,200 acres owned outright with 2,000 MW interconnected: it is partly optioned land and an unexecuted power arrangement. The price is milestone-contingent up to $600 million, with additional payments due on certain shortfalls. Targets are 1 GW of grid capacity by October 2027 and 2 GW by April 2028. HIF retains a minority interest once a data center lease is executed. Starwood is the development partner. Filed 8-K, Jul 9, 2026

Combined with Long Ridge, MARA states this takes total potential power capacity to approximately 4.8 GW. Filed Press release, Jul 9, 2026

03Revenue streams

Where revenue comes from today, and what the pivot intends it to come from.

StreamQ1 2026Basis
Bitcoin mining~$170.3MFiled Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026. Block rewards $156.5M plus $12.8M mining participant and $1.0M transaction fees. Essentially all of revenue
Bitcoin lending interest$4.3MFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Recorded separately, 4,742 BTC loaned to counterparties, from $6.4M on 5,742 in Q1 2026
Hosting and other digital assetsminimalFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026. Down $3.7M year on year
Total revenue$174.9MFiled Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026. Down 27% from $238.5M in Q2 2025
AI and HPC colocation0%Open No signed tenant lease. Expected by year-end 2026 per Q1 2026 shareholder letter

The same mechanism ran again in Q2 2026. Production rose, 2,422 BTC against 2,247 in Q1 2026 and 700 blocks won against 694 a year earlier, while revenue fell 27% year on year. Revenue falls because bitcoin falls, not because MARA mines less: in Q1 2026 an 18% fall in the average price accounted for roughly $33.1 million of that quarter’s decline against nearly flat production of 2,247 BTC against 2,286.

Intended streams, not yet contracted

Mining revenue and bitcoin lending income are disclosed figures. The AI and HPC revenue is entirely prospective: management stated roughly 90% of non-hosted capacity is "being considered for site conversion", and that it expects to sign one or more tenant leases by year-end. Considering and expecting are not contracts. Open Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026

04Industry & market backdrop

Mining economics

MetricLevelBasis
Bitcoin price~$63,000Market Aug 1, 2026, low end of the July range, down ~29% year to date. Traded ~$62,000 to $66,000 through July 2026
Hashprice~$29–31 /PH/s/dayMarket Hashrate Index, CoinWarz, Jul 2026. At or below breakeven for many miners
Network hashrate~908–974 EH/sMarket Jul 2026, down from ~1,154 EH/s peak, Oct 2025
Mining difficulty127.17TMarket After a 5% cut on Jul 11, 2026; peaked 146.47T on Jan 8, 2026

Hashprice peaked near $49 in late October 2025 and has fallen roughly 37% since. Network hashrate has traced lower highs all year. Margins are compressed, and the difficulty reductions are largely a symptom of weaker operators switching machines off.

The sector-wide AI pivot

Nearly every large listed miner is redirecting power toward AI and high-performance computing. CoinShares expects AI and HPC to reach roughly 70% of listed-miner revenue by end-2026, from around 30% at the start of the year. S&P Global Market Intelligence projects HPC at 71% of revenue for both IREN and Core Scientific. Market Industry research, Apr to Jul 2026

Two economics govern the pivot. First, AI infrastructure costs far more to build: CoinShares puts bitcoin mining infrastructure at $700,000 to $1 million per MW against $8 million to $11 million per IT megawatt for AI data centers, roughly a 10× difference in capital intensity. Second, the returns are moderate: Bernstein estimates unlevered IRRs on colocation deals at 8% to 13% against financing costs of 6% to 7%. That spread only works with cheap finance and reliable leasing.

VanEck has estimated the sector's near-term funding gap for the AI buildout at around $50 billion. That capital comes from debt, equity dilution, or selling bitcoin. Listed miners sold more than 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 alone, more than in all of 2025 combined. Market Industry research, Apr to Jul 2026

05Competitive position

Peers sort by how far along the AI pivot they are, which currently matters more than hashrate.

Contracted AI backlogs

CompanyContracted positionBasis
Cipher Digital (CIFR)~$9.3B contracted HPC backlog; 300 MW AWS deal; Google-backstopped Fluidstack agreement; has exited most bitcoin miningMarket Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026
TeraWulf (WULF)~$12.8B in AI contracts; 25-year Fluidstack deal; HPC leasing overtook mining revenue in Q1 2026Market Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026
IRENMicrosoft AI cloud partnership; ~4.5 GW pipeline; HPC projected at 71% of revenueMarket Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026
Applied Digital (APLD)400 MW of 15-year CoreWeave leases; ~$11B contracted revenueMarket Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026
Core Scientific (CORZ)HPC projected at 71% of revenue; reportedly preparing to exit mining entirelyMarket Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026

Capacity built, contracts pending

CompanyPositionBasis
MARA~2.2 GW post-Long Ridge; ~4.8 GW potential; Starwood JV; no signed AI tenantsFiled Press release, Jul 9, 2026
Riot Platforms (RIOT)1.7 GW power; 112 MW AI-ready shell under construction at Corsicana, 600 MW planned; HPC projected at 13% of revenueMarket Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026
CleanSpark (CLSK)>1.8 GW under contract; advanced hyperscaler discussions; AI deployments targeted 2026 to 2027Market Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026
Hut 8, HIVE, BitdeerVarious stages, generally behind on contracted revenueMarket Industry press, Apr to Jul 2026

The competitive read

MARA has the largest potential power portfolio in the group and among the least contracted AI revenue of the major names. Several competitors have investment-grade counterparties signed on 15 to 25 year leases. MARA has inbound interest and active discussions.

The gap is not necessarily permanent: the sites are real and the balance sheet is unusually liquid at ~$2.9 billion of combined cash and bitcoin. But the market is pricing contracted backlog, and MARA has none.

Analyst assumption

One structural advantage separates MARA from the peers above: the Starwood JV means it is not funding the buildout alone, and Long Ridge brings owned generation rather than grid access. Owning the plant is a different position from renting from a utility. Whether it converts into better lease economics is unproven and no signed lease exists to test it.

06Financial performance

Most recent quarter, Q2 2026

MetricQ2 2026Q2 2025Basis
Revenue$174.9M$238.5MFiled Form 10-Q and 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Down 27%
Operating loss($521.1M)$679.8MFiled Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026. The prior-year period was a profit on a positive bitcoin mark
Net loss to common($609.7M)$808.2MFiled Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026. Net loss before minority interests was $611.3M
Loss per diluted share($1.60)$1.84Filed Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA($360.9M)~$1.2BFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026
Bitcoin mark in the loss($343.0M)$1,192.6MFiled Form 10-Q, Aug 6, 2026. Both periods sum the two places the mark falls: $249.6M in operating costs plus $93.5M on the receivable in Q2 2026, against gains of $846.0M and $346.5M in Q2 2025
Energised hashrate70.3 EH/s57.4 EH/sFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Up 22% year on year, down from 72.2 EH/s at Mar 31, 2026
BTC produced2,422n/aFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Up 8% from 2,247 in Q1 2026; blocks won 700 against 694 in Q2 2025
Purchased energy cost per BTC$38,690$33,735Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, Aug 6, 2026. Down from $40,047 in Q1 2026
Cash$421.3Mn/aFiled Jun 30, 2026, against $513.7M at Mar 31, 2026

The loss is smaller than the first quarter’s and the business underneath it is not much changed. Revenue fell 27% year on year on a lower bitcoin price while production rose 8% against Q1. Stripping the mark out on the same basis section 06 uses for Q1: revenue $174.9M, less purchased energy $48.8M, third-party hosting $69.2M and operating and maintenance $26.9M, gives $144.8M of direct costs and roughly $30M of gross margin, before $114.7M of general and administrative expense, $174.7M of depreciation and $1.8M of restructuring. That is the same shape as Q1: marginally positive at the gross line, clearly loss-making after overhead and depreciation. Component figures are filed; the subtraction is the analyst’s. Estimate Derived from the Q2 2026 statement of operations

Prior quarter, Q1 2026

MetricQ1 2026Q1 2025Basis
Revenue$174.6M$213.9MFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026. Down 18%
Operating loss($1,061.5M)($541.1M)Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026
Net loss to common($1,259.6M)($533.2M)Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026
Loss per diluted share($3.31)($1.55)Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA($1,037.7M)($483.6M)Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026
Energised hashrate72.2 EH/s54.3 EH/sFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026. Up 33%
BTC produced2,2472,286Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026. Down 2%
Cost per petahash per day$27.6$28.5Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026. Improved 3%
Cash$513.7Mn/aFiled Mar 31, 2026, against $547.1M at Dec 31, 2025
MetricFY2025FY2024Basis
Revenue$907.1M$656.4MFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026. Up 38%
Net income (loss)($1,311.9M)$541.0MFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026. Swung to loss
Adjusted EBITDA($330.8M)$1,235.0MFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026. Swung to loss
BTC mined8,7999,430Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026. Down 7%
Energised hashrate, year-end66.4 EH/s53.2 EH/sFiled 8-K Ex. 99.1, Feb 26, 2026. Up 25%

Interim data to May 31, 2026

MetricYTD to May 31, 2026Basis
BTC produced3,805Filed Investor presentation 8-K, Jun 25, 2026. ~25.2 per day average
Blocks won1,100Filed Investor presentation 8-K, Jun 25, 2026
Share of network rewards5.6%Filed Investor presentation 8-K, Jun 25, 2026
Energised hashrate70.7 EH/sFiled Investor presentation 8-K, Jun 25, 2026. Down from 72.2 EH/s at 31 Mar, and 70.3 EH/s for Q2 as filed Aug 6
Total assets~$4.95BFiled At Mar 31, 2026, investor presentation 8-K, Jun 25, 2026. $4,348.9M at Jun 30, 2026
Total liabilities~$2.62BFiled At Mar 31, 2026, implied ~$2.33B book equity and ~$6.10 per share. $2,589.5M at Jun 30, 2026, book equity $1,660.6M and ~$4.35 per share

Energised hashrate fell from 72.2 EH/s at 31 March to 70.7 EH/s at 31 May and finished the quarter at 70.3 EH/s. After eleven quarters of near-continuous growth the fleet stopped expanding, and the Q2 print confirms it did not resume: the figure is up 22% year on year and down against the quarter before. Production nonetheless rose, 2,422 BTC against 2,247 in Q1, or 26.6 per day against 25.0, so the fleet produced more from slightly less hashrate as its share of network rewards went from 5.5% to 5.9%. Whether the flat hashrate reflects capital reallocation toward power assets or machines switched off at unprofitable hashprice is still not disclosed.

Separating the mark from the operations

MARA marks bitcoin to market each quarter and runs the change through the income statement. Bitcoin fell 22% in Q1 2026, producing a $1.0 billion non-cash loss. The CFO gave the sensitivity on the Q1 call: every $10,000 move in bitcoin swings the fair value of holdings by roughly $350 million. The loss line reports what happened to the bitcoin price; it does not report whether mining is healthy.

Analyst assumption

Stripping out the mark, the operating business runs as follows. Revenue $174.6M, less purchased energy $44.7M, third-party hosting $70.0M and operating and maintenance $30.6M, giving $145.3M of direct costs and roughly $29M of gross margin. That is before $86.9M of general and administrative expense, $191.6M of depreciation and $45.9M of restructuring. Mining was therefore near break-even at the gross level and clearly unprofitable after overhead and depreciation at Q1 2026 bitcoin prices. Component figures are filed; the subtraction is the analyst's. Estimate Derived from the Q1 2026 statement of operations

Balance sheet and capital allocation

Management sold a hard asset at a low price to retire debt cheaply and avoid dilution. Whether that was the right trade is arguable; it was a deliberate, disclosed choice rather than distress.

The counterpoint: bitcoin holdings fell from 53,822 at year-end 2025 to 35,303 at March 31, 2026, a 34% reduction in one quarter, and 23,093 coins went out across the half year. Q2 stabilised the count and not the policy. Holdings ended June at 35,577, up 274, because 2,422 coins were mined against 2,213 sold. No bitcoin was purchased in either quarter: an earlier reading here that roughly 1,000 coins were bought back in mid-June is withdrawn against a 10-Q reporting purchases of nil, and the log records it. An issuer that once championed never selling has become a large net seller, so a position held for leveraged bitcoin exposure no longer functions that way, and from August 4 more than half of what remains is pledged.

07Capital structure & dilution

Convertible principal, shelf capacity, and the routes by which share count can rise.

The convertible stack

InstrumentBeforeAfterBasis
0.00% notes due 2030$1,000.0M$632.5MFiled 8-K, Mar 26, 2026
0.00% notes due 2031$925.0M$291.6MFiled 8-K, Mar 26, 2026
1.00% notes due Dec 1, 2026$48.1M$48.1MFiled 8-K, Mar 26, 2026; original offering terms
2.125% notes due 2031$300.0M$300.0MFiled 8-K, Mar 26, 2026
0.00% notes due 2032$1,025.0M$1,025.0MFiled 8-K, Mar 26, 2026
Total convertible principal$3,298.1M$2,297.2MFiled 8-K, Mar 26, 2026

The Q1 repurchase cut convertible principal by 30.3%, matching management's description of retiring roughly 30%, and the Form 10-Q confirms the $2,297.2M unchanged at June 30, 2026. The 1.00% notes mature on December 1, 2026: at $48.1 million against $421.3 million of cash this is covered and is not a solvency question, but it is a dated obligation that neither the guidance nor the commentary has drawn attention to. What has changed is what sits beside it. The 0.00% 2031 notes carry a holder put exercisable from June 4, 2027, so $291.6M of them is classified current, and with the line of credit that puts $485.4M of debt in the current portion at June 30. The August 4 facilities then add $750M maturing in 2028, of which $600M is new money.

Routes to a higher share count

SourceScaleBasis
ATM programUp to $2.0B, unused since Sep 2025Filed Form 424B5, Mar 28, 2025, for the at-the-market offering agreement of that date through seven sales agents; Q1 2026 shareholder letter for the dormancy. Operations funded by selling bitcoin rather than by issuing stock. Dormant by choice: the program still exists
Convertible principal outstanding$2,297.2MFiled Form 10-Q, Jun 30, 2026. Unchanged since the Q1 repurchases, which cut it 30.3%
Long Ridge debt assumed≥$785MFiled Press release, Apr 30, 2026. Pro forma Long Ridge debt ~$900M after the consent solicitation, with ~$185M of tack-on notes
Matagorda milestone paymentsUp to $600MFiled 8-K, Jul 9, 2026. Contingent on milestones, with additional payments on certain shortfalls
Buildout capital$8–11M per IT MWEstimate Against ~4.8 GW of potential capacity, this exceeds current liquidity by a wide margin
Shares outstanding386,299,297Filed Cover of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, stated as at July 30, 2026, thirteen sessions before the close this document is priced on. The count runs 379,464,892 at December 31, 2025, 380,873,087 at March 31, 381,270,503 at April 30, 381,888,004 at June 30 and 386,299,297 at July 30, so it is still rising, and it rose by more in that final month than in the preceding six. No filing read here states what issued those 4.4 million shares, and no ATM sale did: the 10-Q reports none for the three and six months

The Q1 2026 sequence was the opposite of dilution: $1.5 billion of bitcoin sold to repurchase over $1 billion face value of 2030 and 2031 notes at a 9% discount to par, a $70.6 million gain booked on extinguishment, the line of credit cut by $200 million and $150 million refinanced from 10.5% to 7%. Four consecutive quarters have now passed without equity issuance, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reporting no ATM sales in the three or six months to June 30, 2026. The share count nevertheless rose 4.4 million between June 30 and July 30, and no filing read here states what issued those shares.

The ownership register

Two Vanguard entities are the only holders currently reporting a position above 5%. Both filed fresh statements on an event date of March 31, 2026, following an internal realignment at Vanguard on January 12, 2026 under which subsidiaries and business divisions report on a disaggregated basis rather than through the parent. The Vanguard Group, Inc. itself amended to zero on March 27, 2026, which is a reporting change and not a disposal.

Reporting personShares% of classBasis
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC26,585,3266.99%Filed Schedule 13G, Apr 29, 2026, event date Mar 31, 2026, under Rule 13d-1(b)
Vanguard Capital Management LLC19,211,4145.05%Filed Schedule 13G, Apr 30, 2026, event date Mar 31, 2026, under Rule 13d-1(b)
The Vanguard Group, Inc.00%Filed Schedule 13G/A no. 6, Mar 27, 2026, event date Mar 13, 2026, reporting zero after the realignment
Susquehanna, four affiliated broker-dealers filing as a group18,825,5204.9%Filed Schedule 13G/A no. 1, Nov 13, 2025, event date Sep 30, 2025. Below 5%, so no further amendment is owed
Vanguard units combined45,796,74012.04%Estimate 26,585,326 plus 19,211,414 shares; 6.99% plus 5.05%. The two units report separately and each disclaims the other, so no filing states a combined figure

The Susquehanna position was overwhelmingly derivative rather than stock, which is why it crosses and re-crosses the threshold inside two quarters. Its first statement, on an event date of June 30, 2025, reported 19,297,219 shares at 5.3%, of which 17,125,400 were options held through Susquehanna Securities and the whole of Susquehanna Investment Group's 1,276,700 was options. The November amendment cut the group to 18,825,520 at 4.9%, on options of 15,940,300 and 1,188,900 at the same two entities. A 5% crossing built out of options is a market-making book rather than an ownership position.

Every Schedule 13D on file, and what each states as its purpose

Seven statements on Schedule 13D have been filed against this issuer, spanning three former corporate names, and the most recent is more than five years old. Every one states that the securities were acquired for investment purposes only and that the reporting persons hold no plans or proposals falling under paragraphs (a) through (j) of Item 4 of Schedule 13D. None sought board representation, a sale of the company, or any other change of control.

FiledReporting personsShares%Stated purpose
Nov 29, 2012Doug Croxall and LVL Patent Group LLC4,166,6669.4%Investment purposes only. Filed against the predecessor name American Strategic Minerals Corp
Jul 17, 2013Doug Croxall and LVL Patent Group LLC5,083,3297.59%Investment purposes only. Croxall was by then chief executive
Oct 16, 2018Merrick Okamoto and First Stage Capital, Inc.2,587,5009.2%Investment purposes only. Okamoto was then chairman and chief executive, and 2,500,000 of the total were exercisable options
Nov 9, 2020Lucky Liefern LLC and Paul Prager3,000,0005.8%Investment purposes only
Nov 25, 2020Two Point One, LLC and Christopher Ensey3,000,0005.7%Investment purposes only. The shares were issued as compensation for services under a services agreement
Apr 1, 2021Two Point One, LLC and Christopher Ensey3,000,0003.0%Purpose unchanged. The position had fallen below 5% against 98,804,636 shares outstanding at Mar 16, 2021
Apr 6, 2021Two Point One, LLC and Christopher Ensey3,000,0003.0%Records that the operating agreement required distribution of all 3,000,000 shares to members on the acquisition date, 420,000 of them to an entity of which Ensey is sole member

One of those statements connects to a peer. The November 9, 2020 filing names Paul Prager as a reporting person and gives Lucky Liefern LLC's notice address as 9 Federal Street, Easton, Maryland 21601, which is the principal executive office TeraWulf reports to the SEC. The position dates from October 2020, well before the pivot, and no amendment to it appears anywhere in the filing index, so what became of it is not established.

Analyst assumption

No holder is currently positioned to act. Every live statement sits on Schedule 13G under Rule 13d-1(b), which is available only to passive institutional holders acquiring without a purpose of changing control, and the Schedule 13D record ends in April 2021 on a position that had already fallen to 3.0%. What the register does not settle is the institutional share or the free float: Schedules 13D and 13G capture only holders above 5%, and three of the four names above sit within two points of that threshold, so the disclosed register is a floor on institutional ownership rather than a measure of it.

Insider activity

Insider selling runs on pre-adopted plans. Chief Executive Frederick Thiel sold exactly 27,505 shares on the 17th or 18th of each month across April, May, June and July 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted May 28, 2025, before the current strategy was announced. Chief Financial Officer Salman Khan sold 16,000 shares in each of May, June and July, on the 18th, the 17th and the 17th under a plan adopted September 11, 2025. Dispositions coded F are shares withheld against tax on RSU vesting rather than open-market sales. Thiel holds ~4.47 million shares directly, worth ~$40 million. A fixed-share plan produces falling proceeds as the price falls: $391,946 in June at $14.25 against ~$299,805 in July at $10.90. The selling is mechanical rather than a change of conviction. What can fairly be said is that no insider has bought. Filed Forms 4, Apr to Jul 2026

Analyst assumption

The two non-dilutive funding sources, bitcoin sales and cheap debt, both deteriorate as conditions deteriorate: a lower bitcoin price means selling more coins for the same dollars, and a higher rate environment means costlier debt. Equity issuance therefore becomes most likely at the point where it is most damaging to existing holders. The Q1 decision to retire debt at a 9% discount rather than draw the ATM reads as an attempt to get ahead of that sequence.

08Valuation

Multiples with their basis and pricing date. No target price is derived.

Sum of the parts

ComponentEstimateBasis
Bitcoin holdings~$2.2BEstimate 35,577 BTC at ~$63,000. Holdings filed at Jun 30, 2026, price Aug 1, 2026. The quarter-end mark inside the filing is $58,524, giving ~$2.1B
Cash~$0.4BFiled Jun 30, 2026 balance, $421.3M
Liquid assets~$2.7BEstimate Sum of the two rows above. 18,750 of the coins are pledged as of Aug 4, so roughly $1.2B of this is encumbered rather than unavailable
Market capitalization$3.46BEstimate 386,299,297 shares at the $8.96 close, Aug 18, 2026
Implied value of everything else~$0.8BEstimate Market cap less liquid assets
Analyst assumption

This is the analyst's construction from disclosed figures, not company guidance, and every step is an assumption. Its inputs are struck at different dates, which is why no single enterprise value appears in the masthead. On that basis the market assigns roughly $0.8 billion to the mining fleet, ~2.2 GW of power capacity, the Starwood JV, Exaion, Long Ridge and Matagorda combined, before debt.

The debt added back is now total debt rather than convertible principal alone, and the change is stated because it moves the answer. The earlier construction added back ~$2.3 billion of convertible principal and ignored a $150 million line of credit, which was immaterial at that size. The August 4 facilities take non-convertible debt to $750 million, so ignoring it no longer is. At the 18 August close and the July 30 share count, adding back convertible principal alone would give ~$3.1 billion; adding back total debt of $3,047.2 million gives ~$3.8 billion. Of the move from the ~$4.9 billion previously shown, the whole ~$1.1 billion is the price: the share count, the treasury and the debt are unchanged.

The residual is highly geared to the share price. At the 18 August close of $8.96 it is ~$0.8 billion, on the July 30 share count and the June 30 balance sheet. On the same inputs the 3 August close of $11.75 gave ~$1.9 billion and the 17 August close of $9.715 ~$1.1 billion; a 7.77% fall in the price then moved the residual by about 27%. Because liquid assets are now roughly three quarters of market capitalization rather than three fifths, small moves in the price produce larger moves in the residual than they did. It is a snapshot, not a level, and this comparison holds the treasury and the share count fixed and moves only the price.

Per-megawatt cross-check

Against ~4.8 GW of potential capacity, $3.8 billion implies roughly $800,000 per potential megawatt. On the convertible-only construction it would be ~$645,000, against the ~$1.03 million this document showed at the 3 August close and ~$860,000 at the 17 August close. MARA paid up to $600 million for 2,000 MW at Matagorda, roughly $300,000 per megawatt for raw powered land, and for land that is partly optioned rather than owned. Estimate Derived from stated capacity, total debt at Aug 4, 2026 and the Aug 18, 2026 close

Two readings follow. On one, the market values MARA at ~2.7× the cost of acquiring powered land, which is defensible if developed and leased capacity is worth far more than raw land, and the multiple has compressed toward acquisition cost as the shares have fallen. On the other, MARA is valued as though the buildout is largely de-risked, when potential capacity is not energised capacity and energised capacity is not leased capacity. The Matagorda 2 GW does not arrive until April 2028.

Which multiples work

MultipleValueBasis
P/En/aNo earnings
EV/EBITDAn/aAdjusted EBITDA is negative on the bitcoin mark
TTM revenue, Q3'25 to Q2'26~$804MEstimate Summed from filed quarterly revenue. The window rolled forward one quarter with the Q2 print, from ~$867M
EV/Sales~4.8×Estimate On TTM revenue and enterprise value including total debt. ~3.9× on the convertible-only construction this document used previously, against the ~6.1× carried at the 3 August close
Long Ridge purchase multiple~10.4×Estimate ~$1.5B for ~$144M of annualised adjusted EBITDA

EV/Sales carries a caveat that matters: the revenue in the denominator is 100% bitcoin mining, a commodity business that arguably deserves a low multiple, while the market is paying for an AI story that produces no revenue at all. The Long Ridge multiple is the one benchmark struck against contracted power assets, and is a defensible price for them.

Published third-party targets and ratings

FirmAnalystDateRatingTargetPrice at publicationBasis and disclosed conflict
Compass PointMichael DonovanNov 24, 2025Buy, upgraded from Neutral$30$10.07Market Three services carry the action. Two of them name the analyst as Ed Engel where the third and the company's own list name Michael Donovan, and the divergence is recorded rather than resolved. Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC is named in the company's Long Ridge announcement as a financial adviser to MARA, a mandate dated five months after this rating.
MacquariePaul GoldingMar 4, 2026Outperform$26, cut from $30$8.66Market One service carries this action, and the same service's October 2025 entry records the target then at $29 rather than $30, so the figure it was cut from is not settled. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
GuggenheimJonathan LeeMar 11, 2026Holdnone$8.57Market One service dates this action; two others carry the initiation at Neutral on October 21, 2025 and no action after it. The rating carries no target. Guggenheim Securities, LLC is one of the seven sales agents under the at-the-market agreement.
Clear StreetBrian DobsonMay 12, 2026Hold$12, raised from $9$13.39Market One service dates this action. Two others carry the March 4, 2026 cut to $9 that it raises from, and neither carries a later Clear Street action. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
Rosenblatt SecuritiesChris BrendlerMay 12, 2026Buy$15$13.39Market One service dates this action; two others carry the raise from $11 to $15 on May 1, 2026 and no action after it. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
J.P. MorganReginald Smith on the services, Richard Choe on the company's listMay 14, 2026Overweight$13$12.75Market One service dates this action; two others carry the cut from $20 to $13 on November 24, 2025 and no action after it. The company's own list names Richard Choe where the services name Reginald Smith, and the divergence is recorded rather than resolved. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
BTIGGregory LewisJun 1, 2026Buy, reiterated$27$14.38Market Three services carry the action. BTIG, LLC is one of the seven sales agents under the at-the-market agreement.
H.C. WainwrightKevin Dede on the services, Mike Colonnese on the company's listJun 23, 2026Under Review, rating withdrawn from Neutralnone$14.85Market Read from the firm's own note of July 20, 2026, not carried by a service: its rating and price target history dates this move to June 23, 2026 and its disclosure page prints no rating and no target, while the same note's comparison sheet prints Not Rated, and the divergence is recorded rather than resolved. It supersedes the February 27, 2026 downgrade to Neutral carried here before, which this document had published for nearly two months after the firm withdrew it. The note names no analyst, so the Kevin Dede against Mike Colonnese divergence stands. The firm discloses investment banking compensation from the issuer inside twelve months, an offering it managed or co-managed in that window, an intention to seek further compensation inside three months, no market making and no 1% ownership. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC is one of the seven sales agents under the at-the-market agreement.
CitizensGreg P. MillerJun 24, 2026Market Outperform, on initiation$24$14.70Market Three services carry the initiation and agree on the date, the analyst and the number; two of them record the firm as Citizens JMP and the rating on the Citizens scale as Market Outperform rather than as a plain Outperform. The firm is absent from the company's own coverage list, which is what a house that has just initiated looks like on a list maintained by hand. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
Morgan StanleyStephen ByrdJul 8, 2026Underweight$5.50, cut from $7$12.05Market Three services carry the action and agree on the date. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
Cantor FitzgeraldBrett KnoblauchJul 10, 2026Buy$14$13.22Market One service carries this action, and its record carries a note date of July 9, 2026 against a publication stamp of 10 July; on the earlier date the preceding close is $12.02 rather than $13.22. The divergence is recorded rather than resolved. The other two services carry nothing later than the cut to $10 on April 9, 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. is one of the seven sales agents under the at-the-market agreement.
NeedhamJohn TodaroJul 10, 2026Holdnone$13.22Market One service dates this action; the other two carry nothing later than a reiteration at Hold on February 27, 2025. The rating carries no target. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
Piper SandlerPatrick MoleyJul 17, 2026Overweight$13, cut from $16$11.42Market Three services carry the action and agree on the date. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
BernsteinGautam ChhuganiAug 3, 2026Hold$17$11.32Market Reported by one service, and supersedes the rating previously carried here without a target. What the firm discloses about this issuer specifically is not established.
JefferiesJonathan PetersenNot establishedNot establishedNot establishedn/aMarket The company's own coverage page, read August 4, 2026, names the firm and its analyst. No service consulted carries a single dated action for it, so the firm is asserted to follow the stock with no published number this document can cite. Jefferies LLC is named in the company's Long Ridge announcement as a financial adviser to FTAI Infrastructure, the seller.

These are the published views of the firms named, reported here as market data. This document adopts none of them, derives no target of its own, and issues no rating. No average, midpoint or center is computed from them: striking one would be deriving a target. Price at publication is the close on the last trading day before the action's date, which is what the author could see when the target was struck; a same-day close is set after the note is out and sometimes moves because of it. Four of these rows previously carried the close on the action date itself and have been restruck.

The shape of the coverage says more than any single figure. The company's own coverage list, read August 4, 2026, names fourteen firms, and it is the company asserting who follows it: Bernstein, BTIG, Cantor Fitzgerald, Clear Street, Compass Point, H.C. Wainwright, Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, Macquarie, Needham, Piper Sandler, Rosenblatt Securities, Guggenheim and Morgan Stanley. Thirteen of the fourteen have a dated published view located here. Jefferies alone has none: the company asserts the firm follows it and no service consulted carries a single dated action, so it is covered without a published number to cite. Of the fourteen dated views in the table, three carry no target at all, from Needham, H.C. Wainwright and Guggenheim, and the eleven that do run from Morgan Stanley's $5.50 to Compass Point's $30. The ratings themselves span Morgan Stanley's Underweight to Macquarie's Outperform and Citizens' Market Outperform.

Two firms publish on MARA without appearing on that list, and they are different cases. Citizens initiated coverage on June 24, 2026, eight weeks before this document, at Market Outperform with a $24 target, on three services that agree about the date, the analyst and the number. An issuer's coverage list is authoritative about who follows it and is not instantaneous: it is maintained by hand and lags a new house by weeks. Absence from it is therefore not evidence that coverage has ended where a recent initiation contradicts it, and a firm eight weeks into covering a stock is exactly what a hand-maintained list is slowest to show. Barclays is the second case and is set out below.

What the issuer's own filings say about these firms

One research note was read for this document, the H.C. Wainwright note of July 20, 2026, and one row rests on what that firm discloses about itself. Nothing else here does. The issuer's filings settle part of the question instead, and they settle it for the whole set rather than for the firms that happen to publish a disclosure this document could reach. The at-the-market offering agreement of March 28, 2025, for up to $2.0 billion of common stock, names seven sales agents: Barclays Capital Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BTIG LLC, Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Guggenheim Securities LLC, H.C. Wainwright & Co. LLC and Mizuho Securities USA LLC. Each is deemed an underwriter for those sales and is entitled to a commission of up to 3% of gross proceeds. Four of the seven are on the coverage list: BTIG, Cantor Fitzgerald, Guggenheim and H.C. Wainwright. That reaches all fourteen covering firms by presence or absence. Filed Form 424B5, Mar 28, 2025, under shelf file 333-277498

The Long Ridge announcement adds three more mandates. Barclays Capital Inc. and Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC acted as financial advisers to MARA on the transaction, and Jefferies LLC acted for FTAI Infrastructure on the other side of it. Of the three, only Compass Point and Jefferies are on the coverage list. Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, Apr 30, 2026

Barclays is the finding. It is a sales agent under the at-the-market agreement; it committed the 364-day senior secured bridge term loan facility of up to $785.0 million behind the Long Ridge acquisition; it acted as a financial adviser to MARA on that transaction; and it publishes a rating on the stock, Equal Weight at $16 dated May 12, 2025 against a $15.76 close the trading day before. It is absent from the company's coverage list. Four relationships at once, and the one list a reader would consult to learn who follows the stock does not carry it. The rating is more than a year old and predates the Starwood joint venture, both acquisitions and the current framing of the pivot, so it is reported as a dated view rather than as a current one. Of the two remaining sales agents, no published rating on MARA from BMO Capital Markets or Mizuho Securities was found on any of the three services consulted. Filed 8-K, Apr 30, 2026, for the bridge commitment · Market Rating and target reported by two services, May 12, 2025

Read against the targets, agency does not sort the views, and it fails to for the opposite reason to the one a sales-agent list might suggest. The four agents on the coverage list sit inside the range rather than at its edges: BTIG at $27, Cantor Fitzgerald at $14, and Guggenheim and H.C. Wainwright abstaining from a target altogether. Both extremes belong to firms that are not sales agents. One of them, Compass Point at $30, is a financial adviser to MARA on Long Ridge, on a mandate dated five months after its rating; the other, Morgan Stanley at $5.50, has no relationship this document has established. Agents holding both ends of a range would say that agency tracks the view; agents clustered in the middle with two abstentions says it does not track it either way.

The limit is worth stating. Absence from the sales-agent list is not absence of a relationship, because a firm may disclose banking compensation in its own note without ever having been an agent or an adviser, and the one note read here is such a case: H.C. Wainwright discloses compensation received and an offering managed or co-managed inside twelve months. What the issuer's filings settle is who holds those particular mandates. What they cannot settle is what any of these firms was paid for anything else, and a firm's book-wide base rate would not answer that question either.

The spread

A $5.50 to $30 range on the same company with the same public information, a 5.5× spread, is wide even for a volatile name. Morgan Stanley appears to be modeling dilution and unleased capacity; Compass Point and BTIG appear to be modeling successful conversion to HPC. The deciding evidence, a signed lease, does not exist, which is why the whole range can be held at once. At $8.96 the shares sit below every published target except the Morgan Stanley $5.50, which is 39% below the current price. The nearest target above the price is the Clear Street $12.

09Growth drivers

Supported by disclosed figures and signed agreements

Dependent on execution, counterparties and financing not yet secured

10Risks

Severity-ranked, most severe first.

Bitcoin price is still the dominant variable Severe

Despite the pivot, ~100% of revenue and ~$2.3 billion of assets are bitcoin-linked, and bitcoin is down ~29% year to date. Every $10,000 move swings fair value ~$350 million through the income statement.

No signed AI or HPC tenant Severe

Every element of the growth case depends on contracts that do not exist, while competitors carry backlogs of $9.3B to $12.8B. Power capacity is necessary and not sufficient.

Funding gap against the buildout Severe

Building 4.8 GW at $8M to $11M per IT megawatt implies capital requirements far beyond current liquidity. That capital comes from debt, dilution, JV partners or further bitcoin sales. The ATM has been unused since September 2025, confirmed again in the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and has not been withdrawn.

The treasury funding the pivot is depleting Severe

Holdings fell 34% in a single quarter, from 53,822 BTC to 35,303, and steadied at 35,577 at June 30 as mining outpaced selling. It is finite, and from August 4, 2026 it is also encumbered: 18,750 coins, more than half the holding, stand as collateral against $750M of term loans. Borrowing against the treasury stops it shrinking and starts it securing, and the terms that would govern a price fall are not disclosed.

The Texas grid regulator is auditing every data center in the interconnection queue Moderate

On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to conduct a comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, to be completed before any additional data centers are approved to move forward. ERCOT has paused Batch Zero, the transitional study process for large loads of 75 MW or more, and filed for good cause exceptions on August 10, 2026 ahead of the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026. It states the verification will take several months.

It reaches this company by its own terms. ERCOT's filing records that data centers are interpreted to include virtual currency mining facilities and other computational loads, and that community impact information will be sought from all such facilities of 25 MW or more that have not yet energised. Matagorda is exactly that: 2,000 MW resting on a utility letter agreement rather than an executed interconnection, with no grid capacity targeted before October 2027 and up to $600 million of milestone payments running against it.

Whether this site was submitted into Batch Zero is not established, and no filing read here names this company. None of this appears in any SEC filing by this issuer. Neither MARA document names a grid operator; Matagorda County sits in the ERCOT region and the connection is an assumption stated as one in the companion calendar.

Mining economics are marginal at current hashprice Moderate

Hashprice at $29 to $31 per PH/s per day is at or below breakeven for many operators. MARA's purchased energy cost per bitcoin fell to $38,690 in Q2 2026 from $40,047 in Q1, having risen to that from $35,728 a year before Q1; against Q2 2025's $33,735 it is still 15% higher. Cost per petahash per day improved 4% to $27.7. The series turned, and one quarter is not a trend.

Long Ridge is conditional and the clock is contractual Moderate

Hart-Scott-Rodino and FERC approvals plus customary closing conditions remain outstanding. Announced 30 April and not closed as at 17 August, the newest filing of any kind on the index. Either party may terminate at any time after November 30, 2026, or June 30, 2027 if regulatory conditions remain unsatisfied.

Leverage rises on completion Moderate

MARA assumes at least $785 million of debt with Long Ridge, with pro forma Long Ridge debt ~$900 million after the consent solicitation and ~$185 million of tack-on notes expected. Existing convertible principal of $2,297.2M sits alongside, and from August 4, 2026 so do $750 million of bitcoin-backed term loans whose stated purpose includes part of the Long Ridge cash consideration. The Barclays bridge must still be refinanced.

The rate environment has turned Moderate

At its 29 July meeting the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive time, on a 9 to 3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike. Markets now price two 25bp increases in 2026 and the June dot plot moved year-end expectations up to 3.6% to 4.1%. A capital-intensive developer needing debt faces a worse cost of capital than the spring assumption implied.

Timelines run past the analysis window Moderate

Long Ridge AI construction begins 1H 2027 and is ready mid-2028. Matagorda reaches full capacity April 2028. Nothing material arrives before 2027.

Matagorda is less locked down than the headline implies Moderate

Payments are milestone-contingent up to $600 million with additional sums due on certain shortfalls. Part of the land is held through purchase contracts rather than owned, and the 2,000 MW rests on a utility letter agreement rather than an executed interconnection. That unexecuted half now sits inside a paused process: ERCOT stopped Batch Zero on the Governor's August 3, 2026 directive and expects the verification to take several months, which is carried as its own risk above.

Competitive displacement in hyperscaler demand Moderate

If the best counterparties are absorbed by miners who moved earlier, MARA faces worse lease terms or none. Lease structures of 15 to 25 years make reverse migration unlikely, so displacement tends to be one-way.

Integration load Low

MARA is absorbing Exaion, closing Long Ridge, developing Matagorda, running a JV and restructuring internally, while the core business is under margin pressure.

Price volatility around a wide analyst range Low

Published targets span $5.50 to $30, which supports continued volatility around news. The 52-week range is $6.66 to $23.45.

Regulatory exposure across three domains Low

Crypto policy, energy market regulation and data center permitting all bear on the story.

A shareholder derivative action remains open Low

In re Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. Derivative Litigation, No. 2:23-cv-01055 (D. Nev.), was filed on July 8, 2023 and carries no termination date, with docket activity as recently as June 9, 2026. The related securities class action, Moreno v. Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc., No. 2:23-cv-00470 (D. Nev.), terminated on March 31, 2026. Severity is Low because a derivative claim runs on the company's behalf against directors rather than against the company, and no quantum is disclosed on the docket. The pleadings themselves were not read.

11Bull / base / bear

Each case with its preconditions: what must be true, not what might be.

Bear

No anchor tenant materialises in 2026. Long Ridge closes but leaves MARA owning a gas plant, a sound asset poorly matched to a growth multiple. Bitcoin weakens, hashprice stays near or below breakeven, and mining burns cash. The treasury, already down 34% in a quarter, keeps shrinking to fund operations and milestone payments. Facing $8M to $11M per IT megawatt with no lease revenue, MARA restarts the ATM and dilutes, or takes on expensive debt. Competitors with signed 15 to 25 year contracts absorb available hyperscaler demand. The Morgan Stanley $5.50 target, roughly 39% below the 18 August close, is reached. In the harshest version remaining bitcoin and cash approach the market capitalization and the power and AI portfolio is valued near zero.

Requires: no tenant, weak bitcoin, expensive capital. A plausible combination rather than a remote one.

Base

Long Ridge closes later than hoped and delivers real but modest cash flow, improving reported earnings quality simply by adding a business not marked to bitcoin each quarter. One tenant lease is signed, smaller than the headline megawatt figures imply, with revenue starting in 2028. Bitcoin trades in a range and mining stays near break-even at the operating level. MARA funds itself through selective bitcoin sales and debt, with limited but non-zero dilution. The stock stays volatile and range-bound between roughly $10 and $16, moving on bitcoin and headlines rather than fundamentals, because the fundamentals are not visible until 2027 to 2028.

Requires: Long Ridge completes, bitcoin range-bound, one lease of modest scale. The current price of $8.96 sits below this range. No average, midpoint or center is computed from the published targets, because striking one would be deriving a target.

Bull

Long Ridge closes in 2H 2026 and contributes ~$144M of annualised adjusted EBITDA from a hedged, contracted power asset. MARA announces its first AI or HPC anchor tenant, at Hannibal, Matagorda or a converted site, before or shortly after year-end. The market re-rates MARA from a bitcoin miner with a story to a power-advantaged data center developer, as it has for IREN, Cipher and TeraWulf. The Starwood structure proves capital-efficient, validating the illustrative 9% to 15% yield-on-cost economics. Bitcoin recovers, adding several hundred million in fair value and restoring mining to profitability. The ~$800k per potential megawatt then looks cheap against 4.8 GW energised.

Requires: Long Ridge closes on time, at least one investment-grade tenant signs, financing available on reasonable terms, bitcoin stabilises or recovers.

12Research summary

MARA is two businesses stapled together, and the market is struggling to price the staple.

The first is measurable and currently unprofitable: the largest bitcoin mining operation among public companies, 70.3 EH/s in Q2 2026 against 72.2 EH/s at 31 March, $0.04/kWh power costs, roughly $30 million of gross margin on $174.9 million of revenue with hashprice near multi-year lows. It is disclosed and verifiable.

The second is a plan: 4.8 GW of potential power capacity, a joint venture with a real estate partner, a gas plant acquisition that should close in 2H 2026, and 1,200 acres in Texas. Almost nothing about it is contracted.

Management's actions carry more information than its statements. In Q1 2026 it sold $1.5 billion of bitcoin at low prices to retire debt at a 9% discount, refinanced borrowing from 10.5% to 7%, cut 15% of staff, and refrained from issuing equity for four consecutive quarters. Those are the actions of a team preparing a balance sheet for a capital-intensive buildout. The Long Ridge consent solicitation, removing the change-of-control put on $600 million of notes, was execution on an unglamorous problem.

Against that sits the gap between potential and contracted. Cipher carries $9.3 billion of backlog, TeraWulf $12.8 billion, Applied Digital ~$11 billion. MARA has inbound interest and active discussions. Management acknowledged the point directly, writing that it recognizes "the market is increasingly focused on demonstrated progress in tenant leasing and contracted megawatts."

The valuation resolves to an option. Strip out ~$2.7 billion of bitcoin and cash and roughly $0.8 billion of market capitalization remains for everything else, on inputs struck at different dates. Whether that is cheap or expensive turns on a binary event that has not happened. The $5.50 to $30 range across published targets is not carelessness; it reflects that the deciding evidence is not yet available.

Dates that resolve parts of the question: Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, a Senate floor vote on the CLARITY Act that had been expected the same week and did not happen, with cloture on the motion to proceed now set for September 15, 2026, the November 30, 2026 Long Ridge termination date, the December 1, 2026 convertible maturity, and any tenant lease announcement guided toward year-end 2026.

MARA is not currently a way to own AI infrastructure, and it is no longer a pure way to own bitcoin. It is a bet that a bitcoin miner can become an AI landlord, financed partly by selling the bitcoin. Nothing in the reported numbers before 2027 will settle whether that has worked.

What would prove this read wrong

Each test below names an event settleable from a document, built from assertions this file already makes.

#If this happensThis was wrongBasis
1MARA files an 8-K disclosing an executed AI or HPC tenant lease with stated contracted megawatts on or before December 31, 2026The reading that the pivot is uncontracted and that capacity without counterparties carries no growth multipleOpen Against the year-end expectation in the Q1 2026 shareholder letter
2Long Ridge has not closed and either party exercises the termination right on or after November 30, 2026The base case, which assumes completion and ~$144M of annualised adjusted EBITDAFiled 8-K, Apr 29, 2026
3A quarterly report discloses ATM issuance after four consecutive quarters of noneThe reading that management will fund from the treasury rather than diluteFiled Tested and not triggered: the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reports no shares sold under the ATM in either the three or the six months to June 30, 2026. That is the fourth consecutive quarter, so the next report tests the threshold this row names
4A quarterly report discloses energised hashrate above 72.2 EH/sThe reading that the fleet has stopped expandingFiled Tested and not triggered: Q2 2026 filed 70.3 EH/s on Aug 6, 2026
5The 1.00% notes are refinanced rather than repaid in cash at the December 1, 2026 maturityThe reading that $48.1M against $421.3M of cash is comfortably coveredFiled Form 10-Q, Jun 30, 2026. Still open; the maturity has not arrived
6A quarterly report discloses bitcoin holdings below 35,303 BTCThe reading that the depletion of the first quarter had stoppedFiled Tested and not triggered, by 274 coins: Q2 2026 filed 35,577 BTC on Aug 6, 2026. The premise named in the earlier wording, a mid-June repurchase, did not occur

13Null categories

Categories with nothing to report. Status reads Covered above, None where a named source was checked and found empty, or Not established where the category was not examined. A category nobody looked at is a gap, not an absence.

CategoryStatusBasis
Analyst coverageCovered aboveFourteen published views are reproduced as market data in the valuation section, section 08, each with its analyst, its date and the close on the last trading day before it. The company's own coverage list names fourteen firms, of which Jefferies alone has no dated published number located. Two firms publish on the stock without appearing on that list: Citizens, which initiated on June 24, 2026, and Barclays, whose rating dates from May 2025.
Ownership registerCovered aboveEvery Schedule 13D and Schedule 13G filing is enumerated in the capital structure section, section 07.
DividendsNot establishedNo source examined for this report addressed dividend policy. Also named in what was not checked.
Share buybacksNot establishedNo equity repurchase program was examined. The Q1 2026 repurchase of over $1 billion of convertible notes is retirement of debt, not a buyback of stock, and does not answer this row. Also named in what was not checked.
Preferred stockNot establishedNot examined. Also named in what was not checked.
WarrantsNot establishedNot examined. Convertible notes are covered in the capital structure section; warrants are not.
Securities litigationNoneChecked against the federal dockets for the District of Nevada on August 3, 2026. The securities class action, Moreno v. Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc., No. 2:23-cv-00470, terminated March 31, 2026. A shareholder derivative action, No. 2:23-cv-01055, remains open and is carried in the risks section.
Going concernNot establishedNo audit opinion or going-concern assessment was examined. Also named in what was not checked.
Short interestNot establishedNot examined. Also named in what was not checked.
Reverse split or share consolidationNot establishedNot examined. Also named in what was not checked.

Seven of the ten rows read Not established rather than None. That is a statement about this document's evidence, not about the company: each of these categories may well have a clean answer, but no source consulted for this report was examined for it, and recording an absence that was never tested would misrepresent the work done.

14Methodology & sources

Pricing basis

Market figures are struck at the close of Tuesday August 18, 2026, at which MARA closed at $8.96, down 7.77% on the day. The market capitalization of $3.46 billion is the filed share count of 386,299,297, stated on the cover of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 as at July 30, 2026, multiplied by that close. The two inputs are thirteen sessions apart rather than three months, which is as close as a filed count gets to a pricing date, and the previous revision’s limitation that no count near the pricing date was established is closed rather than carried. The exchange stamped the close at 16:00 Eastern; volume of 45.5 million shares ran about 13% above the mean of 40.4 million across the nine preceding sessions, so nothing on the tape reads as an unfinished session. Bitcoin is quoted at ~$63,000 as at August 1, 2026.

Provenance tags

TagMeaning in this document
FiledStated in an SEC filing or a company press release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, such as a central bank statement or an exchange notice, with the issuer named in the source line. What the tag asserts is unchanged: a specific body published this, on this date, and the reader can go and look.
EstimateDerived or modelled by the analyst, with the arithmetic shown.
OpenExpected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way.
MarketPrice, third-party research and published targets, stamped with a date. It also covers a third party's characterisation of someone else's facts, which never qualifies as filed however authoritative the underlying body. It extends to the company's own statement of which firms follow it, published on its investor-relations coverage page and read on a stated date: that is the company characterising third parties rather than reporting its own affairs, and it is what establishes the one coverage row carrying no published number.

Tags are not color-coded. A Filed fact can be bad news, and provenance says where a claim came from rather than whether it is favorable.

Primary sources

Form 10-K for FY2025, filed March 2, 2026; Form 10-Q for Q1 2026, filed May 11, 2026; Q1 2026 shareholder letter, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, May 11, 2026; Q4 and FY2025 shareholder letter, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, February 26, 2026; investor presentation 8-K, June 25, 2026; 8-K of March 26, 2026 on the convertible repurchases; Long Ridge 8-K of April 29, 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1 of April 30, 2026; Matagorda 8-K of July 9, 2026; Form 8-K of August 4, 2026 and its Exhibit 99.1 on the board transition; Form 424B5 of March 28, 2025 for the at-the-market agreement and its sales agents; MARA press releases dated 30 April, 15 May, 9 July and July 22, 2026; Forms 4 filed April to July 2026.

Dated official publications by named non-SEC issuers, carrying the same weight as a filing: the Federal Reserve statement of July 29, 2026 for the target range, the vote split and the meeting record.

Third-party sources: market data at the August 18, 2026 close; the H.C. Wainwright note of July 20, 2026 and the Compass Point note of July 9, 2026, read for what each firm publishes about its own rating, target and disclosed relationships and for nothing else; Hashrate Index and CoinWarz for hashprice and network data, July 2026; industry press from April to July 2026 for peer contracted backlogs. Published analyst actions come from three services, Benzinga, MarketBeat and TipRanks, which are the services meant wherever the valuation section says one, two or three carry an action; each is a courier for a note this document has not read, except the H.C. Wainwright row, which is read from the note itself. These are characterisations of other parties' facts and are tagged as market data.

Financial data for Q1 2026 and Q4 and FY2025 comes from shareholder letters furnished on Form 8-K, which the company notes are preliminary and unaudited for FY2025. Final audited figures appear in the Form 10-K.

Coverage of the filing sweep

Run on August 12, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001507605 rather than against the ticker, which does not survive a rename and this issuer has carried four names. The complete submissions index holds 1,100 filings between December 16, 2010 and August 10, 2026: a current view of 1,000 and one overflow file of 100, both read, so the negatives below rest on the whole index rather than on a recent page of it. The current view alone would have covered 90.9% of the record while the negatives were stated against all of it. The overflow file grew from 92 rows to 100 between this sweep and the last, because the current view holds a fixed number and pushes the oldest filings out of it as new ones arrive: re-reading only the current page returns a total that is wrong and looks exact. Fifty-seven of the 1,100 are statements of beneficial ownership, and they sit under six different spellings of the form type rather than one: SC 13D four, SC 13D/A three, SC 13G nineteen, SC 13G/A twenty-six, SCHEDULE 13G three and SCHEDULE 13G/A two. All six were swept and all fifty-seven were opened; a filter written to a single spelling returns a partial view that reads as complete. Exhibits were enumerated rather than form types alone: the joint filing agreement attached to the Susquehanna statement of August 14, 2025 is the only exhibit anywhere in that family, and the Form 8-K of August 4, 2026 carries one substantive exhibit, the press release announcing the board transition. The most recent filings are two Forms 144 of August 17, 2026, read for this revision: Fred Thiel notices 27,505 shares and Salman Khan 16,000, each the fifth consecutive month at an identical count under the Rule 10b5-1 plans named above. Before them stand the two Forms 3 of August 10, 2026, by Nancy Novak and Craig Hart, for the appointments of August 1 that the board-transition 8-K reported.

What was not checked

Known limitations carried forward

Bitcoin holdings and bitcoin price are struck at different dates and are not reconciled. The offending construction is the sum-of-the-parts line reading "35,577 BTC × ~$63,000". The holdings figure is filed at June 30, 2026; the price is quoted at August 1, 2026. The gap narrowed with this revision, because the holdings figure moved from a mid-June market report to a filed balance, and it did not close. Reconciling the two, or restating holdings as at the pricing date, would require a figure this document does not contain. Both are shown with their own dates instead, the derived ~$2.2B is tagged as an estimate, and the filing’s own quarter-end mark of $58,524, giving ~$2.1B, is shown beside it.

No enterprise value is stated in the masthead. The inputs are struck at four dates: market capitalization 18 August, cash 31 March, bitcoin holdings mid-June, convertible principal 26 March. A combined figure would carry no single date, so the field is omitted and the residual is built explicitly in the valuation section.

The capital structure section is thinner than its scope implies. This document's evidence base contains no examination of the equity incentive plan or of the conversion prices on the outstanding notes, and of the shelf registration only the prospectus supplement of March 28, 2025, read for the sales agents rather than for the mechanics of issuance. Those routes to a higher share count are therefore absent rather than assessed and found immaterial, and nothing has been supplied in their place. The ownership register, formerly named here, is now set out in full in the capital structure section.

Seven null-category rows read Not established. They are dividend policy, equity repurchase programs, preferred stock, warrants, short interest, any reverse split, and any going-concern assessment. Each names a question this document does not answer rather than an absence it has confirmed, and each is reported as a gap rather than as a clean result.

15Document log

Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.

August 19, 2026 Latest
Repriced to Aug 18, 2026 close · $8.96 · $3.46B cap · one note read
Correction

This document was publishing a rating the firm had withdrawn. The H.C. Wainwright row read Neutral, downgraded from Buy, dated February 27, 2026. That firm’s own note of July 20, 2026 prints a rating history ending UR:NA 06/23/26 and a disclosure page showing the live status as Under Review with no target. The firm moved to Under Review on June 23, 2026 and this document carried the superseded Neutral for nearly two months. The row now reads Under Review at the price at publication of $14.85, the June 22 close, and moves into date order. Market

The implied residual was stated two ways. Section 08 built it at ~$1.9 billion by deducting liquid assets of ~$2.7 billion; the valuation summary said to strip out ~$2.8 billion and leave ~$1.7 billion. One quantity, two constructions, neither reconciled to the other. Both now stand on the section 08 figures. Estimate

An insider sale was recorded as one month when the filing shows three. The document said Salman Khan “sold 16,000 shares on 17 July”. His Form 144 of August 17, 2026 states sales of 16,000 on May 18, 16,000 on June 17 and 16,000 on July 17, all from the same family trust under a plan adopted September 11, 2025. Filed

Repriced to the 18 August close. $11.75 → $8.96, a fall of 23.74% from the 3 August basis, and the capitalization $4.54B → $3.46B on the unchanged July 30 share count, reconciling at 386,299,297 × $8.96 = $3,461,241,701. The residual falls much further than the price does, because liquid assets do not move with it: implied value of everything else ~$1.9B → ~$0.8B, a fall of 58% on a 24% fall in the price. Enterprise value on total debt ~$4.9B → ~$3.8B and on convertible principal alone ~$4.2B → ~$3.1B; per potential megawatt ~$1.03M → ~$800k; EV/Sales ~6.1× → ~4.8×; the multiple of what Matagorda paid for powered land ~3.4× → ~2.7×. Liquid assets were roughly three fifths of market capitalization and are now roughly three quarters, so the gearing the document warns about is greater than when it was written. Market

Two Forms 144 were filed on August 17 and are read here. Fred Thiel notices 27,505 shares and Salman Khan 16,000, each the fifth consecutive month at an identical count under the Rule 10b5-1 plans this document already names, and together 0.011% of the shares outstanding the notices themselves state. They are the newest filings of any kind on the index, which displaces the two Forms 3 of August 10 from that description in both files. Nothing was filed that bears on the Long Ridge closing, which stands announced on April 30 and not closed. Filed

The Citizens interval is recomputed from this stamp. Six weeks → eight weeks, being the 56 days from the initiation of June 24, 2026, stated twice in the same paragraph and corrected in both. The 52-week range is unchanged at $6.66 to $23.45: the low of February 5, 2026 sits well inside a window ending August 18, which is checked rather than assumed. The day range moves to $8.91 to $9.545 on an opening of $9.36. Market

August 13, 2026
Texas interconnection audit carried · not repriced, basis remains Aug 3, 2026 close

The CLARITY Act vote expected in the week of 3 August did not happen. The Senate recorded eleven roll call votes between August 3 and August 8, 2026 and none concerns the bill. Cloture on the motion to proceed was filed on August 8 and the resulting vote is reported for September 15, 2026, needing 60 votes and not itself passing the bill. The dates sentence above is corrected; the companion calendar re-times the catalyst rather than resolving it, because nothing was decided.

A Texas regulatory review this document did not know about. On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Commission and ERCOT to audit every data center advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, to be completed before any additional data centers are approved to move forward. ERCOT paused Batch Zero, the study process for large loads of 75 MW or more, and filed for good cause exceptions on August 10, 2026, expecting the verification to take several months. Nothing about it is on EDGAR. Carried as a new Moderate risk here and as a dated catalyst in the companion calendar.

It reaches this company by ERCOT's own terms. The filing records that data centers are interpreted to include virtual currency mining facilities and other computational loads, and that community impact information will be sought from all such facilities of 25 MW or more that have not yet energised. Matagorda is 2,000 MW on a utility letter agreement rather than an executed interconnection, with no grid capacity targeted before October 2027 and up to $600 million of milestone payments running against it. The existing Matagorda risk now says so.

NOT REPRICED, deliberately. The valuation carries an implied value of everything else, an implied enterprise value and a figure per potential megawatt, each struck off the market capitalisation by a construction this document states in prose rather than in arithmetic; two readings of it differ by enough to move the residual about 5%. Publishing a figure inferred from a construction that cannot be read would be worse than carrying an older basis openly. Every price-dependent figure therefore keeps the Aug 3, 2026 close, the masthead pricing basis is unchanged, and this note is the disclosure. The next revision able to read the construction should restrike them together rather than one at a time.

August 12, 2026
Priced off Aug 3, 2026 close · $11.75 · $4.54B cap

Q2 2026 reported August 6, 2026, with the Form 10-Q the same day. Revenue $174.9M, down 27% from $238.5M; operating loss $521.1M; net loss to common $609.7M, or $1.60 per diluted share, of which $343.0M is the bitcoin mark; Adjusted EBITDA negative $360.9M; energised hashrate 70.3 EH/s, up 22% year on year. The quarter is added to section 06 above the Q1 2026 table rather than over it.

A $600M bitcoin-backed financing signed on August 4, 2026 reached the record only in the 10-Q. Two term loans totalling $750M, with Coinbase Credit and Two Prime Lending, of which $600M is incremental and $150M refinances the existing line of credit. 18,750 bitcoin, fair value ~$1.2B, were pledged as initial collateral. No Form 8-K reported it on the day. The pivot is now funded by borrowing against the treasury rather than by selling it, and encumbrance goes from 4,528 coins at June 30 to 18,750 four days later, more than half the holding.

Correction. A repurchase this report carried did not happen. Section 01 and section 07 both recorded roughly 1,000 bitcoin repurchased in mid-June 2026, taking holdings to about 36,303, and section 08 valued the treasury on that count. The Form 10-Q reports purchases of digital assets of nil for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, and the shareholder letter states that no bitcoin was purchased in the quarter. Holdings did rise across the quarter, from 35,303 to 35,577, because 2,422 coins were mined against 2,213 sold. The count was close and the mechanism was wrong, and it is the mechanism that carried the meaning: a company buying its treasury back is not the same company as one whose mining outpaced its selling for one quarter.

The share count limitation this report raised against itself is closed. It read that a count as at the pricing date is not established by any filing, the best available being 381,270,503 at April 30, 2026. The Q2 cover states 386,299,297 as of July 30, 2026, four sessions before the August 3 close this document is priced on. Market capitalization moves $4.48B → $4.54B on the count alone. The price was not restruck.

The enterprise value construction changed, and the move decomposes. Section 08 added back convertible principal alone, which was reasonable while other debt was a $150M line of credit and is not now that the facilities take it to $750M. Adding back total debt: on the new share count and the same closes, the old convertible-only construction would give ~$4.2B, and adding the facilities gives ~$4.9B. So roughly $0.2B of the move from ~$4.0B is the larger share count and the smaller treasury, and roughly $0.75B is debt the old construction never counted. EV/Sales moves to ~6.1× on TTM revenue of ~$804M, itself restated from ~$867M as the quarter rolled from Q2’25 to Q2’26.

Purchased energy cost per bitcoin fell, reversing the direction reported here. $38,690 in Q2 2026 against $40,047 in Q1, still above $33,735 a year earlier, with cost per petahash per day improved 4% to $27.7. The risk paragraph resting on a rising series is restated.

Balance sheet at June 30, 2026. Total assets $4,348.9M from ~$4.95B, total liabilities $2,589.5M from ~$2.62B, book equity attributable to MARA $1,660.6M or ~$4.35 per share from ~$2.33B and ~$6.10. Cash $421.3M. Convertible principal confirmed unchanged at $2,297.2M, with $485.4M of debt now in the current portion as the 0.00% 2031 notes carry a holder put exercisable June 4, 2027.

The filing sweep reaches August 10, 2026 across a complete index of 1,100 filings, a current view of 1,000 and one overflow file of 100, against 1,093 to August 4 at the last entry. The overflow file grew from 92 rows to 100 between the two sweeps, so the halves must both be re-read: a sweep that refreshes only the current view under-counts and states the total as though it had not.

August 4, 2026
Priced off Aug 3, 2026 close · $11.75 · $4.48B cap

Correction. A firm recorded as having ended coverage had initiated it six weeks earlier.

Section 08 read that Citizens “does not appear on the company’s list at all, which is the pattern a firm leaves when it ends coverage and its last number stays in the data.” Citizens initiated coverage on June 24, 2026, at Market Outperform with a $24 target, analyst Greg P. Miller, on three services that agree about the date, the analyst and the number. An issuer’s coverage list is maintained by hand and lags a new house by weeks, so absence from it is not evidence of ended coverage where a recent initiation contradicts it. The date, which had been carried as approximately July 9, 2026, and the rating, which had been carried as a plain Outperform where Market Outperform is the Citizens scale, are both corrected with it.

Correction. Every struck price in the coverage table used the wrong close.

All four rows carrying a price at publication used the close on the action date rather than the close on the last trading day before it, which is what the author could see when the target was struck. Cantor Fitzgerald and Needham move $12.60 → $13.22, Piper Sandler $10.69 → $11.42, and Bernstein $11.75 → $11.32. The convention is now stated beneath the table.

Correction. The research summary carried a residual the reprice had left behind.

Section 12 read that roughly $1.5 billion of market capitalization remains after stripping out bitcoin and cash. That was the figure at the 31 July close. At the 3 August close on which this document is priced it is roughly $1.7 billion, as section 08 has said since that reprice, so the two sections stated one quantity differently.

The third-party coverage table grows from seven rows to fifteen, and the sweep of the submissions index moves 1,092 → 1,093 filings. Changes against the 3 August entry:

1. Eight firms are added to the coverage table: Compass Point, H.C. Wainwright, Macquarie, Guggenheim, Rosenblatt Securities, J.P. Morgan, BTIG and Jefferies. Thirteen of the fourteen firms on the company’s own list now carry a dated published view. Jefferies alone does not, and its row says so: the company asserts the firm follows it and no service consulted carries a single dated action.

2. Three rows stop reading Not established. Clear Street is dated to May 12, 2026, Citizens to 24 June and Morgan Stanley to 8 July, and each now carries the close on the trading day before: $13.39, $14.70 and $12.05.

3. Two divergences of analyst name are recorded in the rows rather than resolved. The company’s list names Mike Colonnese for H.C. Wainwright where the services name Kevin Dede, and Richard Choe for J.P. Morgan where they name Reginald Smith. A third, at Compass Point, has two services naming Ed Engel against the company and one service naming Michael Donovan. One divergence of date is recorded the same way: one service’s record carries a note date of July 9, 2026 for the Cantor Fitzgerald action against a publication stamp of 10 July, and on the earlier date the preceding close is $12.02.

4. The issuer’s own filings now supply what the firms’ notes could not. The at-the-market agreement of March 28, 2025, for up to $2.0 billion, names seven sales agents, four of them on the coverage list, which reaches all fourteen covering firms by presence or absence. The Long Ridge announcement names Barclays and Compass Point as advisers to MARA and Jefferies as adviser to the seller. Barclays is a sales agent, the $785.0 million bridge lender, an adviser on that transaction and a firm publishing a rating, and it is absent from the company’s coverage list.

5. Agency does not sort the views, and the reason is recorded: the four agents sit inside the range at $27, $14 and two abstentions, while both extremes are non-agents, Compass Point at $30 and Morgan Stanley at $5.50.

6. Sentences that quantified over the narrower set are re-read against the new one. Six of fourteen becomes thirteen of fourteen; the highest target moves from the Citizens $24 to the Compass Point $30; six numbers from $5.50 to $24 becomes eleven from $5.50 to $30, and the spread 4× to 5.5×, in section 08, in the risk on volatility around the analyst range, in the research summary and in the null categories. That the shares sit below every target but the Morgan Stanley $5.50, and that the nearest target above is the Clear Street $12, were re-read against the fifteen rows and still hold.

7. The filing sweep reaches August 4, 2026 across the complete index of 1,093 filings, a current view of 1,001 and an overflow of 92. The register is recorded under six spellings of the form type rather than two. The new filing is the Form 8-K of August 4, 2026, Items 5.02, 7.01 and 9.01, reporting the resignations of Barbara Humpton and Georges Antoun effective July 31, 2026 and the appointments of Nancy Novak and Craig Hart effective 1 August; its exhibits were enumerated and it carries one substantive exhibit, the press release.

8. The at-the-market row in section 07 gains its size and the agreement that governs it, and the prospectus supplement of March 28, 2025 moves out of what was not checked to that extent.

Pricing is unchanged: the 4 August session was still open, so no session has closed since the 3 August close, no figure has been restruck, and only the as-of stamp moves, August 3, 2026 to August 4, 2026.

Not changed: the section order, the snapshot figures, the bull, base and bear framing, and the central finding that MARA has no signed AI tenant.

August 3, 2026
Priced off Aug 3, 2026 close · $11.75 · $4.48B cap

Correction. The base case rested on a figure this document computed from other firms’ targets.

Section 11 read that the current price and “the median of the published targets” both sat inside the base-case range. A median struck from the targets in this document’s own table is this document deriving a price target, which it does not do. The sentence now gives the price alone and records that no center is computed. The published views are unchanged and are still reported as market data.

Correction. The share count was derived from the market capitalization, and the capitalization from the share count.

The masthead carried “Shares out ~382,000,000”, obtained by dividing the capitalization by the close, while the capitalization was presented as that count times the close, so the figure being sourced was the only source of its own input. The filed count of 381,270,503, on the cover of the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 as at April 30, 2026, now supplies the input and the arithmetic runs one way. The limitation that recorded this defect is withdrawn because it is closed.

Correction. The market capitalization was tagged as published market data.

It is computed here, from a price and a share count struck at different dates, and it now carries the estimate tag. A reader who relied on the earlier tag was told the figure was published when it was not.

Revised against a full sweep of the SEC submissions index by Central Index Key, which reached August 3, 2026 across an index of 1,092 filings and turned up three Forms 4 filed on August 3, 2026. That supersedes the earlier reading that nothing had been filed since the Forms 4 of 20 July. Repriced to the 3 August close, with the figures that move with it: $11.32 → $11.75, capitalization $4.32B → $4.48B, implied residual ~$1.5B → ~$1.7B, implied enterprise value ~$3.8B → ~$4.0B, per potential megawatt ~$790k → ~$830k, EV/Sales ~4.4× → ~4.6×. The 52-week range is unchanged across 251 sessions. Third-party coverage in section 08 now carries the analyst, the date and the close on that date for each published view, and is read against the company’s own coverage list of fourteen firms. Changes against the 1 August entry:

1. The ownership register is now in the capital structure section, where it was previously named as unexamined. Two Vanguard units report 6.99% and 5.05% on an event date of March 31, 2026, following a realignment on January 12, 2026 under which The Vanguard Group, Inc. amended its own holding to zero. A Susquehanna broker-dealer group crossed 5.3% at June 30, 2025 and fell to 4.9% at September 30, 2025 on a position that was overwhelmingly options.

2. All seven Schedule 13D filings against this issuer are now enumerated with the purpose each states, spanning 2012 to 2021 and three former corporate names. Every one states investment purposes only with no plans under paragraphs (a) through (j) of Item 4.

3. Securities litigation moves from Not established to a checked absence. The securities class action terminated on March 31, 2026. A shareholder derivative action filed July 8, 2023 remains open and is added to the risks section at Low severity.

4. Null categories now carry an ownership register row, and seven of ten rows read Not established against eight of nine before.

5. The pricing-basis note no longer reasons from the stamp, which the restamp would have falsified.

Not changed: the section order, the tagging scheme, the bull, base and bear framing, every figure in the snapshot and valuation sections, and the central finding that MARA has no signed AI tenant.

August 1, 2026
Priced off Jul 31, 2026 close · $11.32 · $4.32B cap

Revised against a full EDGAR form-by-form review and the 31 July market close. No new MARA filings since the 9 July 8-K, and no press release since 22 July. Changes against the 27 July build:

1. Market data to the 31 July close, $11.32, market cap $4.32B, cutting the implied value of the non-Bitcoin business from ~$2.0B to ~$1.5B, per-MW from ~$900k to ~$790k, EV/Sales from ~5× to ~4.4×

2. Convertible debt verified at $2,297.2M and itemised by tranche, replacing a third-party estimate, surfacing a $48.1M maturity on December 1, 2026

3. Long Ridge given its November 30, 2026 contractual termination right, a harder date than the "2H 2026" guidance

4. Matagorda restated to match the 8-K: partly optioned land, 2,000 MW via utility letter agreement, shortfall payments beyond the $600M headline

5. Interim operating data added from the 25 June investor presentation: energised hashrate down to 70.7 EH/s at 31 May from 72.2 EH/s at 31 March

6. Fed path added as a risk after the 29 July 9–3 hold with three dissents; Strategy's $8.22B Q2 loss added as a mark-to-market read-across

7. Correction: insider selling recast as mechanical Rule 10b5-1 activity on plans adopted May and September 2025, predating the strategy

Not changed: the ten-section structure, the provenance tagging scheme, the bull/base/bear framing, and the central finding that MARA has no signed AI tenant.

July 27, 2026 (original build)
Priced off Jul 23–24, 2026 market data · $12.96

Initial construction of the report. Nothing precedes this entry.

Scope: ten sections, no buy/sell/hold recommendation.

Sources: Q1 2026 shareholder letter (11 May) · Q4/FY2025 shareholder letter (26 Feb) · press releases 30 Apr, 15 May, 9 Jul, 22 Jul · market data 23–24 Jul ($12.96)

Structure: Read This First · Business Model · Revenue · Industry · Competitors · Financials · Valuation · Growth · Risks · Bull/Base/Bear · Summary · Facts vs Assumptions

Two conventions were fixed at this point and have held since. Every load-bearing claim carries a provenance tag, From filing, Company claim, My calculation, or Third party, applied inline and collected in a register, so management's illustrative economics are never mistaken for disclosed results. And the headline loss is separated from the operating business: the billion-dollar figures are mostly non-cash Bitcoin marks, so the mining economics are derived and shown independently.