MARA
MARA · MARA Holdings, Inc. · Catalyst Calendar · as of August 19, 2026
Banded 0–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 months, earliest first. Numbering is gapless and runs straight through the bands, so a boundary never resets the count.
On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to conduct a comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, and to complete it before any additional data centers are approved to move forward. ERCOT has paused Batch Zero, the transitional study process for large loads of 75 MW or more, and filed its request for good cause exceptions on August 10, 2026, ahead of the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026, which is the dated point here.
Two things in that filing reach this company directly. ERCOT records that "the Commission and ERCOT interpret data centers as including virtual currency mining facilities and other computational loads", and states that community impact information will be requested from all such facilities of 25 MW or more that have not yet energised. It also says the verification "will take several months" and that it expects to begin shortly after the August 20 meeting.
The exposure here is Matagorda, and it is the unexecuted half of it. The 2,000 MW rests on a utility letter agreement rather than an executed interconnection, notice to proceed has been given on the grid-connection switchyard, and no grid capacity is targeted before October 2027. That is unenergised large-load capacity seeking a Texas grid connection, which is the population the audit describes. Up to $600M of milestone payments sit behind the construction start (D5).
An exception on a short timetable, and the process resumes. An audit that thins a queue the operator has described at more than 400 GW is worth more to a buyer with land, a switchyard notice to proceed and a balance sheet than to the speculative requests that make up much of that number. A slower queue also slows the competitors bidding for the same tenants.
A letter agreement is the weakest position in a queue that is being verified, and MARA is paying milestone payments into a site whose power arrangement is not executed. Delay pushes the October 2027 grid-capacity target and the tenant conversation behind it, while the payments continue.
Confidence basis: the meeting date is the Commission's own and the filing is on its docket; what the audit concludes for any particular site is not.
Neither MARA document names a grid operator, so the connection to ERCOT is an assumption and is stated as one. Matagorda County sits in the ERCOT region, which covers about 90% of Texas load, and the filings describe a utility letter agreement and a grid-connection switchyard rather than naming the operator. Whether this site was submitted into Batch Zero is not established, and that is the fact which decides whether the verification reaches it directly. No filing read here names this company.
Source: Office of the Governor of Texas, directive of August 3, 2026, as filed at item 26 of PUCT Project 58317; ERCOT's requests for good cause exceptions, item 42 of PUCT Project 59142, August 10, 2026. Filed Neither appears in any SEC filing by this issuer.
The August window elapsed with no vote, and that is now established rather than open. The previous revision carried this card as elapsed with its outcome unknown, because no market or legislative source had been read. One has been read. The Senate recorded eleven roll call votes between August 3 and August 8, 2026, numbers 218 through 231, and none of them concerns H.R. 3633. They cover continuing appropriations, a series of nominations and a voter photo identification bill. Senator Lummis had said on 31 July that the Senate would proceed the following week, and Majority Leader Thune confirmed it on 3 August; it did not happen.
What happened instead was procedural, and it sets the new date. In the early hours of Saturday August 8, after an overnight session and before the Senate left for its state work period, the Majority Leader filed cloture on the motion to proceed to Calendar No. 423, H.R. 3633, which is the calendar number this card already carried. The cloture vote is reported for September 15, 2026, the day after the Senate returns. Cloture on a motion to proceed does not pass the bill. It opens debate, and it needs the same 60 votes the passage arithmetic needs.
This card is re-timed rather than resolved, deliberately. Nothing was decided in the window, so there is no outcome to record and nothing to move to the resolved sequence. The bill is one procedural step further along and no closer to 60 votes.
Cloture is invoked on 15 September and the bill reaches floor debate with three weeks of session before the midterm calendar closes. Regulatory certainty has supported crypto prices, which flows into MARA's 35,577 BTC.
Cloture fails and the bill has no realistic path before the midterms, pushing market structure into 2027. The filing having come too late for an August vote already cost the bill a month of a shortening calendar. Sector sentiment weakens and MARA falls with it despite no company-specific change.
Confidence basis: the absence of a vote is read off the Senate's own roll call record and is not an inference. The 15 September date is reported rather than read off the Senate's published schedule, and cloture ripening is procedural rather than discretionary, which is why the date is carried at medium to high and the outcome is not carried at all. Passage still requires 60 votes against a 53 to 47 majority, and Senator Tillis described negotiators as "not quite there" on the ethics language that Senators Murphy, Van Hollen and Merkley have formally opposed over.
Source: United States Senate roll call votes, 119th Congress second session, votes 218 to 231, August 3 to 8, 2026, published by the Senate. Filed Cloture filing of August 8, 2026 and the September 15, 2026 vote date, as reported August 8, 2026. Market
Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance and FERC approval are required before closing. The company guides the close to 2H 2026, and clearance necessarily precedes it. The purchase agreement's regulatory carve-out extends the outside date to June 30, 2027 if these conditions specifically remain unsatisfied, as set out under the Long Ridge closing (D7).
This is the gate on ~$144M of annualised adjusted EBITDA and a 65% increase in owned and operated power capacity. Nothing downstream at Hannibal moves until it clears.
Early clearance pulls the close forward, letting Long Ridge cash flow appear in Q4 2026 rather than 2027 and de-risking the bridge refinancing.
FERC review of a generation asset transfer can extend. Delay past year-end pushes the Long Ridge AI and critical IT construction start (D11) and keeps MARA carrying deal costs without the EBITDA.
Confidence basis: approvals are customary but timing is not in the company's control.
Source: MARA press release, April 30, 2026; Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026. Filed
The plant is authorised to sell 485 MW against 505 MW nameplate, and the company expects the full nameplate authorisation this half. A 20 MW uplift is roughly 4% more saleable capacity: modest in isolation, but a clean read on how responsive the regulatory path at Hannibal is.
Confirms the site can expand its interconnected position, supporting the case for scaling to 600 gross MW of AI and critical IT load over time.
Slippage is a small negative on its own but a poor signal about the larger grid-expansion assumptions embedded in the 1 GW campus figure.
Confidence basis: company-stated expectation with a stated half-year window.
Source: MARA press release, April 30, 2026, footnote 2; Q1 2026 shareholder letter. Filed
Phased construction is expected to begin during 2026, contingent on regulatory approvals. Notice to proceed on the grid-connection switchyard has been given. The 8-K describes part of the site as held through purchase and sale contracts rather than owned, and the 2,000 MW as a utility letter agreement, so acquisition of the land itself is one of the milestones. This is also the point at which milestone payments toward the $600M aggregate begin to become payable.
The process the grid connection depends on has been paused. On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Commission and ERCOT to audit every data center advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, and ERCOT has paused Batch Zero and asked the Commission for good cause exceptions, with the verification expected to take several months. Construction start and grid connection are different gates, and nothing read here says the switchyard work stops; what the audit reaches is the unexecuted 2,000 MW behind it. The Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections (D1) carries the dated point.
Construction start alongside tenant discussions supports the claim that the site is genuinely leasable rather than speculative land banking.
Spending begins well before any lease revenue, with first grid capacity not targeted until October 2027. Cash out with no offsetting inflow, funded from a shrinking bitcoin treasury. The agreement also provides for additional payments on certain shortfalls, beyond the $600M headline.
Confidence basis: switchyard notice to proceed is confirmed; broader phasing is contingent.
Source: MARA press release, July 9, 2026; transaction closed July 2, 2026. Filed
Q3 2025 was reported November 4, 2025 and no date has been announced for 2026. Likely the first quarter to show Long Ridge either consolidated or explicitly still pending, plus a fuller read on the restructured cost base and any Matagorda capital outflow.
Long Ridge closed and contributing; contracted megawatts disclosed; general and administrative run-rate confirmed below the Q1 level as guided.
Deal still pending with the bridge loan outstanding; continued bitcoin liquidation; hashprice still near breakeven leaving mining loss-making at the operating level.
Confidence basis: quarterly reporting is a legal obligation; only the precise date is estimated.
Source: Estimated from MARA's prior-year reporting pattern. Estimate
Guided to 2H 2026, but the contract sets a harder limit: either party may terminate any time after November 30, 2026, or after June 30, 2027 if specified regulatory conditions remain unsatisfied. That walk-away right, not the guidance, is the date that matters.
The most concrete positive on the calendar. It adds ~$144M of annualised adjusted EBITDA from a hedged operating asset at under $15/MWh all-in cost, and increases owned and operated capacity ~65% to roughly 2.2 GW.
Closing gives MARA a cash-generative business that is not marked to bitcoin every quarter, improving the quality of reported earnings regardless of crypto prices.
MARA assumes at least $785M of debt. Pro forma Long Ridge debt is ~$900M with ~$185M of tack-on secured notes expected. If the AI campus does not materialise, MARA has levered up to own a gas plant. If the close slips past 30 November without regulatory cover, the seller can walk after MARA has carried deal costs for seven months.
Confidence basis: definitive agreement signed and the change-of-control obstacle cleared, but regulatory timing remains open and the outside date is three months away.
Source: Form 8-K, April 29, 2026 (termination provision); MARA press release, April 30, 2026; consent solicitation results, May 15, 2026; Q1 2026 shareholder letter. Filed
A fixed contractual maturity, the only one on this calendar that cannot slip. $48.1M of principal remains outstanding against $421.3M of cash at June 30, 2026, and it is no longer the only near-dated claim: the June 2031 notes carry a holder put exercisable from June 4, 2027, so $291.6M of them sits in current liabilities, and the August 4 facilities (R11) add $750M maturing in 2028. This is the residue of a $575M 2021 issue that MARA has repurchased down across three later offerings. Low impact on its own, useful as a signal.
Repayment in cash without refinancing demonstrates that the balance sheet handles obligations without touching the ATM or selling bitcoin, consistent with the Q1 posture.
Refinancing rather than repaying $48M outright would say something uncomfortable about liquidity priorities heading into the Long Ridge close and Matagorda milestone payments.
Confidence basis: a stated maturity date on an outstanding instrument.
Source: Form 8-K, March 26, 2026 (principal table); original offering terms, November 2021. Filed
The expiry of management's stated expectation to sign one or more tenant leases by year-end. A self-imposed, publicly stated deadline: whether it is met is a direct test of management credibility on the pivot, separate from the economics of any individual lease.
Meeting the guidance validates the Starwood structure and the claim that ~90% of non-hosted capacity is convertible, and would likely trigger the re-rating the bull case depends on.
Missing it costs more than the lease. It converts active discussions into a missed commitment and hands the bear case its central evidence, that power capacity without counterparties is not worth a growth multiple.
Confidence basis: the date is certain; whether the company treats it as a hard commitment is not. It was framed as an expectation rather than guidance.
Source: Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026. Open
Estimated for the shareholder letter, with the audited 10-K following. FY2025 results came February 26, 2026. This is the first audited annual picture including Long Ridge, and the filing that will restate risk factors around the AI pivot, leverage and bitcoin treasury policy.
A full year of Long Ridge contribution modelled, contracted megawatts disclosed, and a clean audit with no new control findings.
The FY2025 preliminary letter reported an $82.8M goodwill impairment and $110.5M of accelerated depreciation. Fresh impairments on mining assets are a live possibility if hashprice stays depressed.
Confidence basis: annual reporting is obligatory; the date is estimated from pattern.
Source: Estimated from the FY2025 reporting date, February 26, 2026. Estimate
Construction start in 1H 2027, ready for service targeted mid-2028, with initial capacity accelerated by the 200 MW of existing MARA capacity on site. It is the first physical AI construction MARA will have started, and no revenue arrives from it inside this calendar's horizon.
Starting on schedule, ideally with a tenant already signed, demonstrates the Starwood EPC relationship works in practice rather than on paper.
Starting without a tenant means building on spec at $8M to $11M per IT megawatt. Delay pushes first AI revenue beyond mid-2028 and extends the period funded by bitcoin sales and debt.
Confidence basis: company-stated half-year window, wholly dependent on the Long Ridge closing (D7) happening first.
Source: MARA press release, April 30, 2026. Filed
Q1 2026 was reported May 11, 2026. This should be the first clean quarter with Long Ridge fully consolidated and no acquisition or restructuring noise, and therefore the first undistorted look at the combined operating business.
Power segment revenue reported separately from mining, giving a non-bitcoin earnings stream to value on its own multiple.
A full year on from the pivot's announcement with still no contracted AI revenue would make the power company framing hard to sustain.
Confidence basis: obligatory reporting; the date is estimated.
Source: Estimated from the Q1 2026 reporting date, May 11, 2026. Estimate
The 2026 meeting was held June 18, 2026 and the proxy was filed April 30, 2026. Two Class III directors were elected through 2029 at that meeting, and the board is staggered in three classes so only one class stands each year. Watch for any further equity plan share increase.
A clean say-on-pay result and no further plan increase would signal management is not leaning on equity compensation while the share price is depressed. The Forms 4 support this reading: insider selling runs on fixed-share Rule 10b5-1 plans adopted in May and September 2025, mechanical and predating the current strategy.
Stockholders approved an 18 million share increase to the 2018 Equity Incentive Plan in June 2026, and a repeat request would compound dilution, as set out in the dilution and capital overlay in section 5. Every live filing in the ownership register is a Schedule 13G under Rule 13d-1(b), which is open only to passive holders. Seven Schedule 13D filings exist, but the most recent is from April 2021 and every one of the seven states investment purposes only, so no holder is positioned to force a governance change.
Confidence basis: annual meetings are required, but MARA's date has moved between June and July across years.
Source: DEF 14A filed April 30, 2026; meeting held June 18, 2026. Filed
No dated catalyst falls beyond the 12-month window. Items that shape the backdrop without a date are carried as standing conditions in section 2.
Ongoing and undated, most material first. These take “Why undated” in place of timing confidence. Three of them carry a company expectation but no scheduled date, which is what places them here rather than among the dated catalysts.
Management guided to one or more leases by year-end 2026, but no date is scheduled and the signature is a counterparty's to give. The deadline itself is carried by the year-end tenant commitment test (D9); the lease event is undated.
This is the single highest-impact item on the calendar. It would move MARA from the uncontracted peer group into the group already carrying multi-billion-dollar backlogs, and it is the event both bull and bear cases turn on.
An investment-grade or shadow-investment-grade counterparty at Hannibal or Matagorda, with disclosed megawatts and term. Management has said it intends to disclose contracted megawatts as the pipeline converts.
An MOU or LOI rather than a lease; a small pilot rather than an anchor; or a counterparty weaker than the hyperscalers competitors have signed. Any of these reads as a miss against expectations.
Source: Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026, stated as a company expectation rather than a commitment. Open
Bitcoin was ~$63,000 on August 1, 2026, the low end of the July range, down about 29% year to date and roughly 50% from the October 2025 all-time high near $126,210. Management's own sensitivity: every $10,000 move in bitcoin swings the fair value of holdings by roughly $350 million, running straight through the income statement.
Recovery restores mining profitability, halts treasury depletion and adds several hundred million of non-cash gains. It also reduces the pressure to sell BTC to fund Matagorda milestones.
Further weakness compounds through every part of the business at once: revenue, asset value, funding capacity and the collateral behind pledged bitcoin.
Why undated: assigning a horizon and a timing confidence to a continuously traded price would rate something that has no date to be right or wrong about.
Source: Q1 2026 earnings call sensitivity Filed; market data, July and August 2026 Market
Difficulty retargets roughly every two weeks. Hashprice was ~$29 to $31 per PH/s per day in July 2026, down ~37% from the October 2025 peak near $49. This determines whether the mining business that funds everything else is profitable. MARA's own energised hashrate was 70.3 EH/s in Q2 2026, up 22% from 57.4 EH/s a year earlier but below the 72.2 EH/s of March 31, 2026: against the prior quarter the fleet has stopped growing. At current levels hashprice is at or below breakeven for many operators. The $0.04/kWh owned-site cost is a defense, and purchased energy cost per bitcoin fell to $38,690 in Q2 2026 from $40,047 in Q1, reversing the direction reported here, though it remains above the $33,735 of Q2 2025 and cost per petahash per day improved 4% to $27.7.
Competitor capitulation reduces network hashrate and difficulty, raising hashprice for survivors. Network hashrate has already fallen from ~1,154 EH/s in October 2025 toward ~900 to 970 EH/s.
Hashrate returning from lower-cost jurisdictions raises difficulty without a corresponding bitcoin price gain, squeezing margin further.
Why undated: difficulty adjusts on a block schedule and hashprice is continuous. Neither is a diarisable event.
Source: Hashrate Index and CoinWarz, July 2026 Market; Q1 2026 shareholder letter for unit costs Filed
The 29 July meeting held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive time, on a 9 to 3 vote with all three dissents favoring a hike. Remaining 2026 meetings are 15 to 16 September with projections, 27 to 28 October, and 8 to 9 December with projections. Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, 27 to 29 August, the main scheduled signal before September.
Two channels, both material. Rates set the cost of the debt MARA needs for a buildout at $8M to $11M per IT megawatt, and liquidity conditions drive the bitcoin price carried in the mark-to-market mechanic (S2). High-beta crypto equities are among the most rate-sensitive assets in the market.
An extended hold with softening inflation removes the tightening premium from financing costs on the bridge refinancing (S8). Easing, the scenario that helps both channels at once, is no longer the market's base case for 2026.
Markets now price two 25bp hikes in 2026, and the June dot plot moved year-end expectations up to 3.6% to 4.1% from 3.25% to 3.75%. CME FedWatch put the odds of a September hold at only 41.9%. A tightening path raises the cost of capital exactly as MARA must refinance the bridge and fund the buildout, while pressuring bitcoin.
Why undated: the meetings are dated but the policy path is a standing condition. Separate meeting cards across horizons would count one exposure several times.
Source: FOMC statement and implementation note issued by the Federal Reserve, July 29, 2026, and the Federal Reserve published meeting calendar, for the target range, the vote split and the remaining meeting dates. Filed Rate commentary and CME FedWatch pricing, late July 2026. Market
Restated each quarter. Holdings fell from 53,822 BTC at year-end 2025 to 35,303 at March 31, 2026, a 34% reduction in one quarter, and then rose slightly to 35,577 at June 30, 2026 as 2,422 coins were mined against 2,213 sold. No bitcoin was purchased in either quarter, the 10-Q reporting purchases of nil for the six months; an earlier reading here that roughly 1,000 coins were repurchased in June is withdrawn and is corrected in the log. This is how the pivot has been paid for: MARA sold ~$1.5B of bitcoin in Q1 2026, ~23,093 coins across the half year, and expects to "continue to monetize bitcoin opportunistically." From August 4, 2026 it is also borrowed against rather than sold, 18,750 coins standing as collateral for the new term loans (R11) against 4,528 pledged at the quarter end. The treasury is both the balance sheet's largest asset and its working capital, and more than half of it is now encumbered.
It has avoided dilution, with no ATM use since September 2025, funded instead by asset sales. On any measure that is friendlier to existing holders than issuing equity at these levels.
It is finite and depleting, and the leveraged bitcoin proxy thesis no longer holds: anyone holding MARA for BTC exposure now holds a company selling BTC. 9,995 of the remaining holdings are loaned or pledged as collateral.
Why undated: a standing capital-allocation policy executed opportunistically, not a transaction with an announced date.
Source: Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 shareholder letters. Filed
The ATM program has not been used since September 2025 and has not been withdrawn. It operates off the shelf registration at file 333-277498, last drawn on by a 424B5 prospectus supplement in March 2025, and raised $568.6M during 2025. A Form S-8 registering additional employee-plan shares was filed December 30, 2025. This is the mechanism by which the bear case would express itself. Weighted average diluted shares rose from 344.1M in Q1 2025 to 380.2M in Q1 2026, roughly 10% in a year, before any new issuance.
Four consecutive quarters of restraint, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reporting no ATM sales in the three or six months to June 30, is a real signal, and management has framed non-use of the ATM as "an important data point for shareholders."
Restraint is a choice, not a constraint. If bitcoin falls far enough that treasury sales become untenable, the ATM is the obvious next source and would be tapped at a depressed price. The full set of routes is in the dilution and capital overlay in section 5.
Why undated: a standing facility. There is no scheduled issuance, only a capacity that exists continuously.
Source: Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 shareholder letters. Filed
Competitors have been signing 15 to 25 year leases through 2025 and 2026 while MARA remains uncontracted. Cipher reports ~$9.3B of contracted HPC backlog, TeraWulf ~$12.8B and Applied Digital ~$11B. Each signed lease removes a counterparty from the available pool. CoinShares expects AI and HPC to reach ~70% of listed-miner revenue by end-2026.
Demand may exceed supply for years: hyperscaler capex is still rising and power is the binding constraint. MARA's owned generation at Long Ridge is a differentiated position that grid-dependent competitors cannot easily replicate.
If the best counterparties are absorbed by earlier movers, MARA faces worse terms or none. Fifteen-year lease structures make reverse migration uneconomic, so displacement tends to be one-way. The market is already pricing the distinction: IREN rose ~30% in late July after its chief executive said AI demand exceeds what it can build, while bitcoin-levered names sold off.
Why undated: a gradual competitive process with no decision date. Individual competitor announcements are not MARA events.
Source: Industry press and research, April to July 2026, not filing-verified. Market
The transaction is backstopped by a Barclays bridge loan that must eventually be replaced. The terms MARA achieves reveal how credit markets price the pivot, and whether the buildout can be debt-funded rather than equity-funded.
Permanent financing at rates near the 7% MARA achieved on its refinanced line of credit would support the case that Bernstein's 8% to 13% colocation IRRs clear the cost of capital.
Expensive terms, or a structure requiring equity, would validate the dilution scenario. A bridge left outstanding is itself an overhang.
Why undated: the need is disclosed but no date or structure has been announced, so there is nothing to rate for timing.
Source: MARA press release, April 30, 2026, bridge disclosed; Q1 2026 shareholder letter, pro forma structure. Filed
Management said it expects to provide "more detailed pipeline and roadmap information in the future" for Exaion, and is in discussions with energy companies in France, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. This is a second, independent pathway into AI revenue: sovereign and private cloud rather than hyperscale colocation. Existing operations in the UAE, Finland and Oman give it a base.
A named sovereign or enterprise contract would diversify the pivot away from sole dependence on US hyperscaler leasing, and would arrive on a shorter timeline than campus construction.
Exaion has no disclosed pipeline figures at all. Continued silence would suggest the 64% stake is optionality rather than a business, and international discussions have been described as ongoing since 2025 without conversion.
Why undated: the company frames the roadmap disclosure as indefinite, so there is no date to rate.
Source: Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 shareholder letters. Open
Closed items, kept for the record, ordered by resolution date. A resolved catalyst takes the next free R number and does not carry an earlier number over. Where an item spans dates, it sorts on the date it completed.
The stake gives MARA a sovereign and private-cloud AI platform with European and Canadian reach. Integration advanced through Q1 2026. It matters as a second, structurally different route into AI revenue that does not depend on hyperscaler colocation leases.
Residual risk: no pipeline or revenue figures have been disclosed, and integration sits alongside three other simultaneous corporate projects.
Source: Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 shareholder letters. Filed
Announced with the Q4 2025 results. A partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures to develop, finance and operate digital infrastructure, targeting more than 1 GW of initial IT capacity with a roadmap beyond 2.5 GW, and giving MARA an option to invest up to 50% in projects. It establishes the capital-efficient structure the pivot depends on, and brings EPC capability and hyperscaler leasing relationships MARA does not have.
Residual risk: announced 17 months ago with no signed tenant to date. The illustrative 200 MW economics remain a company hypothetical.
Source: Q4 2025 shareholder letter, 8-K Exhibit 99.1. Filed
Over $1B face value of 2030 and 2031 notes repurchased at a 9% discount to par, funded by ~$1.5B of bitcoin sales. The line of credit was cut by $200M and $150M refinanced from 10.5% to 7%. A $70.6M gain on extinguishment was booked. It removes a slice of future conversion dilution and lowers interest cost ahead of a capital-intensive period.
Residual risk: roughly 70% of the converts remain outstanding, and the bitcoin was sold at an average $70,137, below where it had traded months earlier.
Source: Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026. Filed
$45.9M of restructuring costs were recognized in the quarter. Management stated the organization needed to scale a mining platform differs from the one needed to build a digital infrastructure company. General and administrative expense excluding stock compensation had risen to $57.7M in Q1 2026 from $36.9M a year earlier, and management guided the quarterly run-rate to trend below the Q1 level. Q2 2026 came in at $69.5M on the same basis, against $40.1M a year earlier, and management attributes the sequential improvement to the reduction in force while the year-on-year figure carries $15.4M of acquisition and integration costs and a $10.2M litigation settlement. The guidance is repeated. The Q3 2026 results (D6) are the next test of it.
Residual risk: $12M of annualised savings against $45.9M of one-time cost is a long payback, and losing mining expertise while mining still generates 100% of revenue carries execution risk.
Source: Q1 2026 shareholder letter, May 11, 2026. Filed
Moreno v. Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc., No. 2:23-cv-00470, filed in the District of Nevada on March 30, 2023 for a class period of May 10, 2021 to February 28, 2023, and terminated on the docket on March 31, 2026. Claims under Securities Exchange Act Sections 10(b) and 20(a) and Exchange Act Rule 10b-5 alleged misstatements regarding bitcoin impairment methodology and mining-pool revenue recognition, following a restatement of nearly two years of results. Dismissal with prejudice bars refiling of the same claims, which is why the securities class action reads as closed rather than as a forward catalyst.
Residual risk: a companion shareholder derivative action was filed on July 8, 2023 and has not terminated. It is carried as the open shareholder derivative action (S10). The class action docket itself carries a transcript designation on June 15, 2026 and two notices in July, all after judgment, whose subject cannot be read from the docket index. The underlying restatement history remains a governance fact even though the claim failed.
Source: United States District Court for the District of Nevada, docket record for No. 2:23-cv-00470, read August 3, 2026 through CourtListener. Case number, filing date and termination date; the dismissal order itself was not read. Filed
Agreement to acquire Long Ridge Energy & Power from FTAI Infrastructure for ~$1.5B including assumption of at least $785M of debt, backstopped by a Barclays bridge. 505 MW CCGT plus 1,600+ acres in PJM. It moves MARA from grid customer to generation owner and wraps around its existing 200 MW Hannibal mine rather than standing alone. Shares rose ~11.9% on the day.
Residual risk: still unclosed. The Long Ridge regulatory clearance (D3), the Long Ridge closing (D7) and the bridge refinancing (S8) are all downstream of this agreement.
Source: MARA press release, April 30, 2026. Filed
Launched May 7, 2026 with expiration and results announced May 15, 2026. Noteholders of Long Ridge's 8.750% senior secured notes due 2032 consented to waive the change-of-control provision, avoiding a 101% put. Pro forma Long Ridge debt falls to ~$900M from ~$1.1B, the $400M term loan is to be repaid at closing and the $115M Can-Am facility remains. It removed the largest financing obstacle in the transaction and de-risked the close.
Residual risk: ~$185M of tack-on secured notes are still expected to be issued.
Source: MARA press releases, May 7 and 15, 2026; Q1 2026 shareholder letter. Filed
Held virtually, with the proxy filed April 30, 2026. Four proposals: election of two Class III directors through 2029, ratification of PwC as auditor for 2026, advisory approval of 2025 executive pay, and an increase of 18 million shares reserved under the 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The share increase is a concrete, approved dilution authorisation and is carried into the dilution and capital overlay in section 5.
Residual risk: the board is staggered in three classes, so stockholders would need consecutive annual meetings to change a majority. PwC has audited only since 2025, following Marcum.
Source: DEF 14A, April 30, 2026; MARA investor relations calendar. Filed
Announced July 9, 2026. Volt Texas, LLC acquired MAT 1177 LLC from HIF USA LLC: 1,200+ acres with rights to up to 2,000 MW, ~90 miles south-west of Houston, at a milestone-contingent price up to $600M. HIF retains a minority interest once a data center lease is executed. It would more than double potential capacity to ~4.8 GW including Long Ridge. Shares rose 11% to 18% intraday on the announcement.
Residual risk: payments are milestone-contingent and forward-dated, first grid capacity is not targeted until October 2027 and the full 2 GW until April 2028, and no HPC tenant is signed for the site.
Source: MARA press release, July 9, 2026. Filed
Barbara Humpton and Georges Antoun notified the board on July 29 and 30, 2026 of their resignations effective 31 July, each stating personal reasons and no disagreement with the company on its operations, policies or practices. On 1 August the board appointed Nancy Novak as a Class I director, with a term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, and Craig Hart as a Class II director, with a term expiring at the 2028 annual meeting. Hart also succeeds Antoun on the Risk and Audit Committee. The two incoming profiles read to the pivot rather than to mining: Hart is Senior Portfolio Manager and Global Co-Head of Energy and Power at Avenue Capital Group and was chief financial officer of US Power Generating Company, and Novak was Chief Innovation Officer of Compass Datacenters, where she led development for hyperscale and cloud customers. Power investment and hyperscale data center development arrive on the board in one step, three days before the Q2 2026 results (R12). What the departing directors brought is not described in the filing, so this is an addition that can be characterised against a subtraction that cannot.
Residual risk: board composition is a signal about intent, not about execution, and it changes nothing about the first AI or HPC tenant lease (S1), which is still unsigned. Two departures for stated personal reasons on consecutive days, effective the same date, is a coordinated transition rather than two coincidences, and the company describes it as planned; nothing on the record contradicts that, and nothing on the record independently confirms it either. The board remains staggered in three classes, so the two new directors face election at different meetings.
Source: Form 8-K, August 4, 2026, Items 5.02, 7.01 and 9.01, and its Exhibit 99.1 press release of the same date. Filed
MARA entered two bitcoin-backed term loans on August 4, 2026. The Coinbase Credit facility refinances and consolidates the existing $150.0M 2026 line of credit and provides $300.0M of additional funding, priced at the arithmetic average of the upper and lower bounds of the federal funds target range plus 3.875%. The Two Prime Lending facility is a further $300.0M at a fixed 7.65%. They mature on August 4 and August 3, 2028 respectively, the Coinbase facility carrying an automatic one-year extension unless either party cancels in time. 18,750 bitcoin, with a fair value of approximately $1.2 billion, were pledged as initial collateral on the closing date. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes including part of the cash consideration for Long Ridge.
The funding route changed, and that is the finding rather than the amount. Through the first quarter the pivot was paid for by selling the treasury: ~$1.5B of bitcoin, 20,880 coins, went out of the door in Q1 2026 alone and ~23,093 coins across the half year. This borrows against the treasury instead of consuming it. Bitcoin pledged as collateral was 4,528 coins at June 30, 2026, of which 4,253 secured the line of credit; four days later it is 18,750. Encumbrance moves from roughly an eighth of the holding to more than half in a single step, against holdings of 35,577.
Residual risk: a coin that has been borrowed against is still owned and is no longer freely disposable, so the treasury reads the same size and does less work. The subsequent-events note states the amount, the rate, the maturity and the initial collateral, and states no maintenance threshold, top-up obligation or liquidation term, so what a fall in the bitcoin price would require of MARA cannot be settled from this filing. That is a disclosed gap in the record here rather than an inference about the terms. Reading it beside the bitcoin price and the mark-to-market mechanic (S2) is the point: the same price move that used to mark the balance sheet down can now also call for cash or for more coins.
Source: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Note 18, Subsequent Events, filed August 6, 2026; collateral at the quarter end from Note 5. Filed No Form 8-K reported these agreements on the day they were signed; the Form 8-K of August 4, 2026 reports the board transition (R10) under Items 5.02, 7.01 and 9.01. Filed
Reported on the stated date and hour, with the Form 10-Q lodged the same day. The card named four things to watch and each is answered below against what it asked for in advance rather than against what the quarter happened to contain.
| What the card asked | The print |
|---|---|
| Remaining BTC count | 35,577 at June 30, 2026, carried at ~$2.1B on a $58,524 quarter-end mark. Up 274 coins from 35,303 at March 31 |
| Whether further bitcoin was sold | Yes, 2,213 coins at an average $73,078, against 2,422 mined. Materially smaller than Q1's 20,880 |
| General and administrative run-rate against the guided decline | Down against Q1 and up 73% year on year. $69.5M excluding stock compensation against $40.1M, including $15.4M of acquisition and integration costs and a $10.2M litigation settlement. Management repeats the guidance that the run-rate trends lower |
| Any tenant-pipeline language | No counterparty and no contracted megawatts. Lease discussions are described as progressing across multiple sites alongside Starwood, with confidence in signing at least one before year end |
The downside limb was the one that landed. It named further bitcoin sales, another mark-to-market loss, hashprice pressure visible in energy cost per bitcoin, and no movement on leasing. Three of those four arrived: coins were sold, a $343.0M unrealised bitcoin mark drove a net loss of $611.3M, and nothing was signed. The fourth went the other way and is worth stating rather than rounding into the rest: purchased energy cost per bitcoin fell to $38,690 from $40,047 in Q1 2026, and cost per petahash per day improved 4% to $27.7. Against Q2 2025's $33,735 it is still higher.
No upside limb landed in full. General and administrative expense fell sequentially but not year on year; holdings were higher than at March 31 but 29% lower than a year earlier; no tenant was named. Revenue was $174.9M, down 27% from $238.5M, with energised hashrate up 22% to 70.3 EH/s and 700 blocks won. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $360.9M against positive $1.2B. The loss was $1.60 per diluted share, of which $609.7M was attributable to common stockholders.
The claim this print contradicts is the one worth recording. Both files carried a repurchase of roughly 1,000 bitcoin reported in mid-June 2026, taking holdings to about 36,303. The 10-Q reports purchases of digital assets of nil for both the three and the six months ended June 30, 2026, and the shareholder letter states plainly that no bitcoin was purchased in the quarter. Holdings did rise inside the quarter, and mining rather than buying is what lifted them: 2,422 coins were mined against 2,213 sold. The figure was close to right and the mechanism was wrong, which is the harder of the two to notice.
Source: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and Form 8-K under Items 2.02 and 9.01, both August 6, 2026, with the Q2 2026 shareholder letter at Exhibit 99.1. Filed
Every category reviewed appears as a row, including those that produced catalysts, which read across by title and ID. Status reads Covered above, None where a named source was checked and found empty, or Not established where the category was not examined. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
| Category | Status | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Covered above | Q3 2026 results (D6), Q4 and FY2026 results plus Form 10-K (D10), Q1 2027 results (D12). The Q2 2026 results (R12) are resolved. |
| Product launches | None | Checked against company press releases to July 22, 2026. MARA is an infrastructure operator rather than a product company. The nearest analogue, the TAE Power Solutions hybrid energy storage prototype shipped June 30, 2026, is a pilot deployment rather than a commercial launch and carries no disclosed economics. |
| Investor days | None | Checked against the investor relations calendar and press releases to July 22, 2026. No capital markets day or analyst day announced. Strategy updates arrive through quarterly shareholder letters. |
| Regulatory decisions | Covered above | CLARITY Act Senate floor vote (D2), Long Ridge regulatory clearance (D3), Long Ridge 505 MW authorisation uplift (D4). |
| Lawsuits | Covered above | Securities class action dismissed with prejudice (R5), terminated March 31, 2026, and the open shareholder derivative action (S10), which has not. Both read from the District of Nevada dockets on August 3, 2026. No securities class action has been filed since. |
| Macro events | Covered above | Fed policy path (S4), which carries the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings and Jackson Hole. Bitcoin price (S2) and hashprice (S3) carry the crypto-specific macro exposure. |
| Industry conferences | Not established | Not examined. No conference schedule, sponsorship or speaking commitment was checked for this document. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Management changes | Covered above | Board transition, two directors out and two in (R10), reported on Form 8-K of August 4, 2026. Fred Thiel remains Chairman and Chief Executive and no executive officer changed; the organizational realignment (R4) cut headcount without an announced executive departure. |
| Buybacks | None | Checked against the quarterly shareholder letters. No equity repurchase program. The Q1 2026 repurchase of over $1B of the company's own convertible notes, in the convertible debt retirement (R3), is deleveraging rather than a buyback of stock. |
| Dividends | None | Checked against the quarterly shareholder letters. No common dividend has been paid or declared, and none is contemplated. Capital is directed toward buildout and debt reduction. |
| Major contracts | Covered above | First AI or HPC tenant lease (S1), Long Ridge closing (D7), year-end tenant commitment test (D9), Exaion roadmap and international campus agreements (S9). |
| Activist ownership | None | Checked against all 57 beneficial-ownership filings in the complete index on August 4, 2026, under all six spellings of the form type that the index carries. Seven Schedule 13D filings exist, from November 2012 to April 2021, and every one states investment purposes only with no plans under paragraphs (a) through (j) of Item 4. Every live position is a Schedule 13G under Rule 13d-1(b), which is confined to passive holders. No activist position is open. |
| Insider transaction filings | Covered above | Forms 3, 4 and 144 through July 20, 2026 record Rule 10b5-1 sales and RSU tax withholding. Carried in the 2027 annual meeting (D13) and the dilution and capital overlay in section 5. |
| Late-filing notices | None | Checked against the complete index of 1,100 filings on August 12, 2026. Eight NT filings are on file, four NT 10-K and four NT 10-Q, between August 14, 2012 and February 28, 2023; the last covers the 2022 year end and is the restatement itself. None has been filed since February 28, 2023, and that unbroken run of timely filing across the pivot is the finding. |
| Foreign-issuer filings | None | Checked against the filing index. Forms 6-K, 20-F and 40-F apply to foreign private issuers. MARA is Nevada-incorporated and files as a US domestic issuer, so these cannot exist for it. |
| Registration on Form S-1 | None | Checked against the filing index. MARA raises through an S-3 shelf at file 333-277498 with 424B5 prospectus supplements. An S-1 appearing would itself signal a loss of shelf eligibility. |
| Index inclusion or removal | None | Checked against press releases to July 22, 2026. MARA is an established Nasdaq constituent and no pending index event was identified. |
| Going concern | None | Checked against the FY2025 and Q1 2026 reporting. No going-concern qualification. With ~$2.9B of combined cash and bitcoin at March 31, 2026, near-term solvency is not the constraint; capital adequacy for the buildout is. |
Sits across every other catalyst rather than beside them. Dilution accrues through several of the items above rather than arriving as one dated event, so the routes are collected here.
| Source | Timing | Scale and mechanism | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline drift | Realized | Weighted average diluted shares rose from 344.1M in Q1 2025 to 380.2M in Q1 2026, roughly 10% in one year, before any new program. | Filed 8-K Ex. 99.1, May 11, 2026 |
| 2018 Equity Incentive Plan increase | Approved Jun 18, 2026 | 18 million additional shares reserved, roughly 4.7% of the current ~378M share count. Approved, not yet issued. | Filed DEF 14A, Apr 30, 2026 |
| Form S-8 | Dec 30, 2025 | Additional shares registered for employee benefit plans, the delivery mechanism for the equity-plan awards above. | Filed S-8, Dec 30, 2025 |
| ATM program | Available, unused since Sep 2025 | Raised $568.6M during 2025. Dormant by choice, not withdrawn. The most likely relief valve if bitcoin sales become untenable, and it would be drawn at a depressed price. Carried as the equity issuance capacity (S6). | Filed 424B5, Mar 28, 2025; Q1 2026 shareholder letter |
| Remaining convertible notes | 2026 / 2030 / 2031 / 2032 | $2,297.2M of principal remains after the convertible debt retirement (R3), confirmed unchanged in the Form 10-Q at June 30, 2026: $632.5M on the 2030s, $291.6M on the 0.00% 2031s, $300M on the 2.125% 2031s, $1,025M on the 2032s, plus $48.1M of 1.00% notes maturing December 1, 2026. The 0.00% 2031s now sit in current liabilities, their holder put becoming exercisable June 4, 2027, which with the line of credit puts $485.4M of debt in the current portion. At $8.96 all sit far below their conversion prices, $25.91 on the 2030s and $34.58 on the 2031s, so conversion is not the near-term route. | Filed 8-K, Mar 26, 2026; price Market Aug 18, 2026 close |
| Long Ridge tack-on notes | At closing | ~$185M expected on the Long Ridge closing (D7). Debt rather than equity, so dilutive to enterprise value and cash flow rather than to share count. Included for completeness. | Filed Consent solicitation results, May 15, 2026 |
| Matagorda milestone payments | 2026–2028 | Up to $600M aggregate on the Matagorda construction start (D5) and beyond, contingent on development milestones, with additional payments on certain shortfalls. Funded from bitcoin sales, debt or equity. | Filed 8-K, Jul 9, 2026 |
| Buildout capital | Unscheduled | At $8M to $11M per IT megawatt, developing even a fraction of 4.8 GW exceeds current liquidity by a wide margin. The Starwood JV is designed to limit this and the design is untested. | Estimate Derived from the capital-intensity range and stated capacity |
The two non-dilutive funding sources both deteriorate as conditions deteriorate. A lower bitcoin price means selling more coins for the same dollars; a higher rate environment means costlier debt. Equity issuance therefore becomes most likely at the point where it is most damaging to existing holders. The Q1 2026 decision to retire debt at a 9% discount rather than draw the ATM reads as an attempt to get ahead of that sequence.
What would prove this read wrong, stated in advance. Each trigger names an event settleable from a document: a filing, a date passing, or a disclosed figure crossing a stated threshold. Each is built from an assertion this calendar already makes.
| # | If this happens… | …this was wrong | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MARA files an 8-K disclosing an executed AI or HPC tenant lease with contracted megawatts stated, on or before December 31, 2026 | The reading that the pivot is uncontracted and that the first tenant lease (S1) has no realistic near-term path | Untriggered |
| 2 | Long Ridge has not closed and either party exercises the termination right on or after November 30, 2026 | The Long Ridge closing (D7) as the calendar's most concrete positive, and the ~$144M of annualised adjusted EBITDA that depends on it | Untriggered |
| 3 | A quarterly report discloses ATM issuance, after none since September 2025 | The equity issuance capacity (S6) reading that restraint holds and the treasury is the funding route | Untriggered |
| 4 | A quarterly report discloses energised hashrate above 72.2 EH/s | The hashprice and network difficulty reading (S3) that the fleet has stopped growing | Untriggered |
| 5 | The 1.00% notes are refinanced rather than repaid in cash at the December 1, 2026 maturity (D8) | The reading that $48.1M against $421.3M of cash is comfortably covered | Untriggered |
| 6 | A quarterly report discloses bitcoin holdings below 35,303 BTC | The bitcoin treasury reading (S5) that the depletion of the first quarter had stopped | Untriggered |
| 7 | The FOMC raises the target range above 3.50% to 3.75% at any remaining 2026 meeting | The Fed policy path (S4) upside case that an extended hold removes the tightening premium | Untriggered |
| 8 | Aggregate weighted average diluted shares exceed 380.2M by more than 4.7% in any quarterly report, the increase approved on June 18, 2026 | The dilution overlay reading that approved authorisations remain unissued | Untriggered |
| 9 | MARA has disclosed no executed AI or HPC tenant lease in any filing or press release by the Q4 and FY2026 results (D10), while three or more of Cipher, TeraWulf, IREN, Applied Digital and Core Scientific each announce a new or expanded hyperscaler contract over the same window. The peer set and the count of three are analyst judgments Estimate | The competitive displacement in hyperscaler demand (S7) reading that MARA is competing for a pool still open to it rather than one already allocated | Untriggered |
Test 9 names its counterparty set and its threshold explicitly because the underlying assertion, that the best counterparties are absorbed by earlier movers, names neither on its own. The five peers and the count of three are analyst judgments rather than filed figures and are tagged as such. A stated threshold that turns out to be wrong is still a test; an unstated one never was.
Every ID in one table, gapless within each class, matching the cards above in ID, count and order. Links point at title slugs so they survive renumbering.
| ID | Catalyst | Timing | Impact | Confidence | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections | Aug 20, 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D2 | CLARITY Act Senate floor vote | Sep 15, 2026 | Medium | Medium to high | Two-sided |
| D3 | Long Ridge regulatory clearance | 2H 2026 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D4 | Long Ridge 505 MW authorisation uplift | 2H 2026 | Low to medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| D5 | Matagorda construction start | During 2026 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| D6 | Q3 2026 results | Early Nov 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D7 | Long Ridge closing | Outside date Nov 30, 2026 | High | Medium | Up |
| D8 | 1.00% convertible notes mature | Dec 1, 2026 | Low | High | Two-sided |
| D9 | Year-end tenant commitment test | Dec 31, 2026 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D10 | Q4 and FY2026 results, plus Form 10-K | Late Feb 2027 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D11 | Long Ridge AI and critical IT construction start | 1H 2027 | High as proof | Medium | Two-sided |
| D12 | Q1 2027 results | May 2027 | Medium to high | High | Two-sided |
| D13 | 2027 annual meeting of stockholders | ~Jun 2027 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| S1 | First AI or HPC tenant lease | No scheduled date | Decisive | n/a | Two-sided |
| S2 | Bitcoin price and the mark-to-market mechanic | Continuous | Decisive | n/a | Two-sided |
| S3 | Hashprice and network difficulty | Continuous | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S4 | Fed policy path | Continuous | High | n/a | Down |
| S5 | Bitcoin treasury as the funding source | Ongoing policy | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S6 | Equity issuance capacity | Continuous | High | n/a | Down |
| S7 | Competitive displacement in hyperscaler demand | Continuous | High | n/a | Down |
| S8 | Bridge refinancing and permanent Long Ridge capital | No announced date | Medium to high | n/a | Two-sided |
| S9 | Exaion roadmap and international campus agreements | Unscheduled | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S10 | Open shareholder derivative action | No scheduled date | Low | n/a | Two-sided |
| R1 | Exaion majority stake closed | Q4 2025 | Medium | n/a | Resolved |
| R2 | Starwood joint venture announced | Feb 26, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
| R3 | Convertible debt retirement | 30–Mar 31, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
| R4 | Organizational realignment | Q1 2026 | Medium | n/a | Resolved |
| R5 | Securities class action dismissed with prejudice | Mar 31, 2026 | Medium | n/a | Resolved |
| R6 | Long Ridge definitive agreement | Apr 30, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
| R7 | Long Ridge consent solicitation completed | May 15, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
| R8 | 2026 annual meeting held | Jun 18, 2026 | Medium | n/a | Resolved |
| R9 | Matagorda County acquisition closed | Jul 2, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
| R10 | Board transition, two directors out and two in | Aug 1, 2026 | Medium | n/a | Resolved |
| R11 | Bitcoin-backed term loan facilities | Aug 4, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
| R12 | Q2 2026 results | Aug 6, 2026 | High | n/a | Resolved |
Twelve dated catalysts, and only three carry High timing confidence: the Q3 2026 results (D6), the Q4 and FY2026 results (D10) and the Q1 2027 results (D12), all of them reporting dates. Every item that would change the investment case depends on a counterparty or a regulator rather than on MARA, and the highest-impact item of all, the first AI or HPC tenant lease (S1), carries no date at all.
The near-term window that was front-loaded has now passed. The Q2 2026 results (R12) landed on 6 August in the week the CLARITY Act Senate floor vote (D2) had been expected, and that vote did not happen. What remains dated inside three months is no longer thin: the Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections (D1) carries a date of 20 August and High impact, and the CLARITY Act cloture vote is now set for 15 September. The previous revision said no dated High-impact catalyst stood before the Q3 2026 results (D6) in early November, and adding the Texas audit made that untrue on the same day it was written. The stock has a 52-week range of $6.66 to $23.45 and traded at $8.96 at the 18 August close.
One date moved from soft to hard. The Long Ridge closing (D7) was previously carried as "by December 31, 2026" on the strength of company guidance. The purchase agreement grants either party a termination right after November 30, 2026, three months out, which converts that item from a guidance target into a contractual deadline with a counterparty that can walk.
Maps the numbering used before this revision to the current IDs, so earlier log entries remain resolvable.
| Was | Now | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | D2 | CLARITY Act Senate floor vote |
| 1 | R12 | Q2 2026 results |
| 3 | D3 | Long Ridge regulatory clearance |
| 5 | D4 | Long Ridge 505 MW authorisation uplift |
| 6 | D5 | Matagorda construction start |
| 7 | D6 | Q3 2026 results |
| 8 | D7 | Long Ridge closing |
| 11 | D8 | 1.00% convertible notes mature |
| 9 | D9 | Year-end tenant commitment test |
| 12 | D10 | Q4 and FY2026 results, plus Form 10-K |
| 13 | D11 | Long Ridge AI and critical IT construction start |
| 14 | D12 | Q1 2027 results |
| 15 | D13 | 2027 annual meeting of stockholders |
| 4 | S1 | First AI or HPC tenant lease |
| S1 | S2 | Bitcoin price and the mark-to-market mechanic |
| S2 | S3 | Hashprice and network difficulty |
| S3 | S4 | Fed policy path |
| S4 | S5 | Bitcoin treasury as the funding source |
| S5 | S6 | Equity issuance capacity |
| S6 | S7 | Competitive displacement in hyperscaler demand |
| 10 | S8 | Bridge refinancing and permanent Long Ridge capital |
| 16 | S9 | Exaion roadmap and international campus agreements |
| C2 | R1 | Exaion majority stake closed |
| C1 | R2 | Starwood joint venture announced |
| C3 | R3 | Convertible debt retirement |
| C9 | R4 | Organizational realignment |
| C8 | R5 | Securities class action dismissed with prejudice |
| C4 | R6 | Long Ridge definitive agreement |
| C5 | R7 | Long Ridge consent solicitation completed |
| C7 | R8 | 2026 annual meeting held |
| C6 | R9 | Matagorda County acquisition closed |
| Tag | What it asserts |
|---|---|
| Filed | Stated in an SEC filing or a company press release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, such as a central bank statement, an exchange notice, a legislative calendar, or the docket record of a named federal court, with the issuer named in the Source line. What the tag asserts is unchanged: a specific body published this, on this date, and the reader can go and look. |
| Estimate | Derived or inferred here, with the arithmetic or the inference shown. |
| Open | Expected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way. |
| Market | Price, volume, float, published targets and third-party research, stamped with the close or publication date. It also covers a third party's characterisation of someone else's facts, which never qualifies as filed however authoritative the underlying body: a counsel announcement describing a court's order is market data, not a filing. |
Tags are not color-coded. A Filed fact can be bad news, and provenance records where a claim came from rather than whether it is favorable.
| Level | Means |
|---|---|
| High | Date is company-announced, protocol-defined, or statutorily fixed. |
| Medium | Date inferred from filing cadence or a stated deadline window. |
| Low | Date is a judgment call. Could move by a quarter or more. |
Confidence rates timing, never outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can be a coin flip; a Low-confidence one can be near-certain in direction.
Impact is independent of confidence. A High-impact, Low-confidence item is the most important kind here: it matters enormously and could land any time.
An item is dated where it has a scheduled date, a company-guided window, or a defined deadline, including a window as loose as 2H 2026. An item is standing where its timing reads unscheduled, ongoing, continuous or not announced, whatever its category: the first AI or HPC tenant lease (S1), the bridge refinancing (S8) and the Exaion roadmap (S9) are all counterparty-driven or indefinite and sit in the standing class for that reason, not because they are unimportant. Standing items carry a reason in place of a confidence rating, because rating a continuous exposure for timing certainty would rate nothing.
Resolved items are ordered by the date they completed, not the date they began, so a newly resolved item lands at the end and existing numbers stay put.
The docket index is read, the documents on it are not. The securities class action dismissed with prejudice (R5) and the open shareholder derivative action (S10) are both sourced to the District of Nevada docket record: case numbers, filing dates, termination dates and entry descriptions. No pleading, order or judgment was read, so the reason for the dismissal, the quantum sought in the derivative action, and the subject of the post-judgment entries of June and July 2026 are all unestablished. Reading them requires paid docket access that was not available.
Four reporting dates are estimated rather than announced. The Q3 2026 results (D6), the Q4 and FY2026 results (D10), the Q1 2027 results (D12) and the 2027 annual meeting (D13) are inferred from prior-year cadence. Each is tagged as an estimate and carries a Medium or High confidence reflecting that the obligation is certain even where the date is not.
The direction field is derived rather than stated. The source of this calendar recorded an upside and a downside on every item but did not record a direction. Each direction here is inferred from the item's own stated outcomes and impact language. Where both sides carry comparable weight the item reads Two-sided, which is the majority.
This calendar was superseded in part on August 6, 2026, and this revision absorbs it. The Q2 2026 results (R12) updated the bitcoin count, the cash position and the cost run-rate, and disclosed a financing signed two days earlier that no 8-K had reported (R11). The Long Ridge timeline was not changed by the print: the transaction is described as awaiting FERC approval, which is where this calendar already had it.
One category was never examined. Industry conferences produced neither a catalyst nor a checked absence, and reads Not established in the null categories. It is also named in what was not checked.
Primary filings and company releases first, with form type and date.
Run on August 12, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001507605 rather than against the ticker, which does not survive a rename and this issuer has carried four names. The complete submissions index holds 1,100 filings between December 16, 2010 and August 10, 2026, in a current view of 1,000 and one overflow file of 100, and both were read, so every absence recorded in the null categories rests on the whole index rather than on a recent page of it. The current view alone would have covered 90.9% of the record while the absences were stated against all of it. The overflow file is the half that moves without being asked: it grew from 92 rows to 100 between these two sweeps as older filings were pushed out of the current view, so a sweep that re-reads only the current page under-counts the index and reports a total that looks precise. Fifty-seven of those filings are statements of beneficial ownership, and they sit under six spellings of the form type rather than one: SC 13D four, SC 13D/A three, SC 13G nineteen, SC 13G/A twenty-six, SCHEDULE 13G three and SCHEDULE 13G/A two. All six were swept and all fifty-seven were opened; a filter written to a single spelling returns a partial view that reads as complete. Exhibits were enumerated rather than form types alone: the joint filing agreement attached to the Susquehanna statement of August 14, 2025 is the only exhibit anywhere in that family, and the Form 8-K of August 4, 2026 carries one substantive exhibit, the press release announcing the board transition. The Form 10-Q of August 6, 2026 carries three exhibits beyond the certifications, one of which, Exhibit 10.3, is the material one for this revision. Forms 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, S-8, S-3, 424B5, DEF 14A, NT 10-K, NT 10-Q and Forms 3, 4 and 144 were all counted across the same index. The most recent filings are two Forms 144 of August 17, 2026, each a monthly notice under a Rule 10b5-1 plan and neither bearing on any dated item here. Before them stand the two Forms 3 of August 10, 2026, filed by Nancy Novak and Craig Hart for the appointments of August 1 already carried here as the board transition (R10). Third-party items are marked as such on the card that carries them.
Form 10-K for FY2025, filed March 2, 2026; Form 10-Q for Q1 2026, filed May 11, 2026; Q1 2026 shareholder letter, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, May 11, 2026; Q4 and FY2025 shareholder letter, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, February 26, 2026; 8-K of March 26, 2026 on the convertible repurchases; Long Ridge 8-K of April 29, 2026 and press release of April 30, 2026; consent solicitation press releases of May 7 and 15, 2026; investor presentation 8-K of June 25, 2026; Matagorda 8-K and press release of July 9, 2026; earnings call scheduling press release of July 22, 2026; DEF 14A of April 30, 2026; Form S-8 of December 30, 2025; 424B5 of March 28, 2025 under shelf file 333-277498; Schedule 13G and 13G/A filings of 27 March, 29 April and April 30, 2026; Forms 4 filed April to July 2026.
Hashrate Index and CoinWarz for hashprice, network hashrate and difficulty; FOMC statement and implementation note of July 29, 2026 and the Federal Reserve published calendar; CME FedWatch; Senate Legislative Calendar (Cal. No. 423) and reporting of the Lummis and Bessent statements of July 30 to 31, 2026; industry press and research from April to July 2026 for peer contracted backlogs; counsel announcement for the class action disposition.
The standard EDGAR company-browse page served a list ending at May 11, 2026, omitting the 8-K filings of 25 June and 9 July that were verified directly in the archives. Anyone relying on that index alone would have missed six weeks of filings. Individual accession documents and the company investor relations feed were used to cross-check.
Company filings and press releases are treated as primary. Where a figure or event is available only through third-party reporting, including competitor backlogs, hashprice, litigation docket status and published analyst targets, it is labeled as such in the card's Source line and should be verified independently before being relied on.
Two day-trading outlets published identical boilerplate in late July referring to a MARA regulatory investigation. No SEC filing, credible outlet or the April 2026 proxy supports this, and the proxy states there are no disclosable legal proceedings involving directors or officers. It is excluded deliberately rather than overlooked.
A late-July report anticipated a difficulty adjustment near −16% around 26 July, which would have improved hashprice. It was not confirmed at the time of writing and is therefore not reflected in the hashprice and network difficulty condition (S3).
Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten. Entries record what changed about the company and the analysis. Numbering used in earlier entries resolves through the concordance in the methodology section.
Repriced to the 18 August close. $11.75 → $8.96, a fall of 23.74% from the 3 August basis. The three convertible series stay far below their conversion prices, so nothing about the dilution picture changes in kind. The 52-week range is unchanged at $6.66 to $23.45. Market
The countdown to the Long Ridge outside date is recomputed from this stamp. Either party may terminate after November 30, 2026, which is four months → three months from here, stated twice and corrected in both places. Two Forms 144 were filed on August 17, 2026 by the chief executive and one other officer, each continuing a monthly Rule 10b5-1 series and neither bearing on any dated item. No catalyst resolved and no timing elapsed, so the counts stand at thirteen dated, ten standing and twelve resolved. Filed
The CLARITY Act window was read, and the vote did not happen. The previous revision carried the catalyst as elapsed with its outcome unestablished, and said plainly that no market or legislative source had been read for it. One has now been read. The Senate recorded eleven roll call votes between August 3 and August 8, 2026 and none concerns H.R. 3633; in the early hours of August 8 the Majority Leader filed cloture on the motion to proceed to Calendar No. 423, the number this card already carried, and the resulting vote is reported for September 15, 2026. The catalyst is re-timed, not resolved: nothing was decided, so there is no outcome to move to the resolved sequence, and the card said so itself before the reading was made, that moving it would assert one. It sorts behind the Texas audit and the two identifiers swap.
A sentence written this morning was already wrong by the afternoon. The summary above said no catalyst on this calendar carried both a date and High impact before the Q3 2026 results in early November. The Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections (D1), added hours earlier, is dated 20 August and Impact High, so adding a card falsified a claim about the shape of the calendar that no figure sweep and no identifier sweep watches. It is corrected here.
A Texas regulatory review neither MARA document knew about, and this file was the last of seventeen carrying none of it. On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to audit every data center advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, to be completed before any additional data centers are approved to move forward. ERCOT paused Batch Zero, the transitional study process for large loads of 75 MW or more, and filed its request for good cause exceptions on August 10, 2026 at item 42 of Commission Project 59142. Nothing about it appears in any SEC filing by this issuer. It enters as a dated catalyst at the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026, and the Matagorda construction start (D5) records the pause.
Why this file was silent, and why that stopped being defensible. An earlier sweep found MARA silent on the review and the revision stopped before it was made, for a reason recorded below. What changed is the record rather than the reasoning: ERCOT's August 10 filing states that "the Commission and ERCOT interpret data centers as including virtual currency mining facilities and other computational loads", and that community impact information will be requested from all such facilities of 25 MW or more that have not yet energised. Matagorda is 2,000 MW on a utility letter agreement rather than an executed interconnection, with no grid capacity targeted before October 2027.
NOT REPRICED, deliberately, and the reason is a figure this document cannot read. The valuation carries an implied value of everything else, an implied enterprise value and a figure per potential megawatt, each struck off the market capitalisation by a construction stated in prose rather than in arithmetic. Reconstructing that constant from two prior entries gives two answers differing by enough to move the residual about 5%. Publishing a figure inferred from a construction that cannot be read would be worse than carrying an older basis openly, so every price-dependent figure keeps the Aug 3, 2026 close it was struck on, the masthead pricing basis is unchanged, and this note is the disclosure rather than a silence. The next revision that can read the construction should reprice all of them together.
What is not established is stated on the card rather than resolved. Neither document names a grid operator; Matagorda County sits in the ERCOT region and the connection is carried as an analyst assumption with that basis. Whether this site was submitted into Batch Zero, which is the fact deciding whether the verification reaches it directly, is not on any record read.
Q2 2026 results reported on the stated date and hour, with the Form 10-Q the same day. Revenue $174.9M, down 27%; net loss $611.3M including a $343.0M unrealised bitcoin mark, $1.60 per diluted share; Adjusted EBITDA negative $360.9M; energised hashrate 70.3 EH/s. Carried as Q2 2026 results (R12). Three of the four downside limbs landed and no upside limb landed in full.
A $600M bitcoin-backed financing entered on August 4, 2026 was not on this calendar and could not have been. No Form 8-K reported it that day; it reached the record in Note 18 of the Form 10-Q on August 6. Two term loans totalling $750M, of which $600M is incremental, with 18,750 bitcoin pledged as initial collateral. Carried as bitcoin-backed term loan facilities (R11). The pivot is now funded by borrowing against the treasury rather than by selling it, and encumbrance rises from 4,528 coins at the quarter end to 18,750.
A repurchase this calendar reported did not happen. Roughly 1,000 bitcoin were said to have been repurchased in June 2026. The 10-Q reports purchases of digital assets of nil for the three and six months ended June 30, and the shareholder letter states that no bitcoin was purchased in the quarter. Holdings did rise across the quarter, from 35,303 to 35,577, and mining is what lifted them. The figure was near enough; the mechanism was wrong.
The CLARITY Act Senate floor vote (D1) window has elapsed without this document establishing the outcome. Its provenance is Market, no filing settles it, and no market source was read for this revision. The card now says so rather than continuing to present a passed week as forthcoming.
Balance-sheet figures move to June 30, 2026. Cash $421.3M from $513.7M at March 31; bitcoin 35,577 from 35,303; convertible principal confirmed unchanged at $2,297.2M. Purchased energy cost per bitcoin fell to $38,690 from $40,047, reversing the direction this calendar reported. The price was not restruck: the pricing basis stays at the August 3, 2026 close.
The filing sweep was rerun and restated. The complete index holds 1,100 filings reaching August 10, 2026, in a current view of 1,000 and one overflow file of 100, against 1,093 to August 4 at the last entry. Three of the seven added are Forms 4 filed later on August 4 itself, after the previous sweep ran; the newest are the Forms 3 of Nancy Novak and Craig Hart, reporting the appointments already carried as the board transition (R10).
One filing since the previous entry, and it produced a catalyst. The Form 8-K of August 4, 2026, Items 5.02, 7.01 and 9.01, reports the resignations of Barbara Humpton and Georges Antoun effective July 31, 2026 and the appointments of Nancy Novak and Craig Hart effective 1 August. Its exhibits were enumerated rather than the form ticked off: one substantive exhibit, the press release of the same date. Changes against the 3 August entry:
1. New resolved catalyst, the board transition, two directors out and two in (R10), resolved August 1, 2026. It sorts on its completion date and therefore lands at the end of the resolved list.
2. Management changes moves from None to Covered above in the null categories. The previous reading was checked against press releases and the proxy to July 22, 2026 and was accurate on that basis; the resignations were notified on 29 and 30 July, after it.
3. The filing sweep reaches August 4, 2026 across the complete index of 1,093 filings, a current view of 1,001 and an overflow of 92, against 1,092 at the previous entry. The register of 57 beneficial-ownership statements is unchanged in count and is now recorded under the six spellings of the form type the index actually carries rather than two.
4. Resolved catalysts rise from nine to ten in the masthead.
Pricing is unchanged: the 4 August session was still open, so no session has closed since the 3 August close, no figure has been restruck, and only the as-of stamp moves, August 3, 2026 to August 4, 2026.
Not changed: the horizon structure and band boundaries, the section order, the thirteen dated catalysts and their timing, the ten standing conditions, the dilution overlay, and the reading that nothing here is decisive except a tenant lease that has no date.
Repriced to the 3 August close, $11.32 → $11.75. The sweep of the submissions index by Central Index Key reached August 3, 2026 across an index of 1,092 filings and turned up three Forms 4 filed that day, superseding the earlier reading that nothing had been filed since the Forms 4 of 20 July. No catalyst moved class and no identifier changed.
Correction. Two absences asserted in the null categories were false, not merely thin.
The activist ownership row read that no Schedule 13D was on file. Seven are, filed between November 2012 and April 2021 across three former corporate names. The conclusion drawn from it survives, because every one of the seven states investment purposes only with no plans under paragraphs (a) through (j) of Item 4, but the stated basis for that conclusion was wrong. The row now names the seven and the register they sit in.
The late-filing notices row read that no NT 10-K or NT 10-Q was on file, and reasoned from that to an unbroken record of timely filing. Eight NT filings are on file, four of each, from August 14, 2012 to February 28, 2023. The last of them is the NT 10-K for the 2022 year end, which is the restatement the same sentence cited as the reason the record was impressive. What survives is narrower and is now stated as such: no NT filing since February 28, 2023.
Revised against a full sweep of the SEC submissions index by Central Index Key, which reached August 3, 2026 and found nothing filed since 20 July. Pricing is unchanged: no session has closed since the 31 July close, so no figure has been restruck and only the as-of stamp moves, August 1, 2026 to August 3, 2026. Changes against the 1 August entry, beyond the corrections above:
1. The ownership register is now stated rather than asserted. Two Vanguard units report 6.99% and 5.05% on an event date of March 31, 2026, after a realignment on January 12, 2026 under which The Vanguard Group, Inc. amended its own holding to zero. A Susquehanna broker-dealer group crossed to 5.3% at June 30, 2025 and fell to 4.9% at September 30, 2025 on a position that was overwhelmingly options.
2. The securities class action dismissed with prejudice (R5) carries a resolution date for the first time, March 31, 2026, read from the District of Nevada docket. It had been carried last with its date not stated, and dating it re-sorts the resolved list.
3. New standing condition, the open shareholder derivative action (S10), filed July 8, 2023 and still carrying no termination date, with docket activity to June 9, 2026. This calendar had treated the issuer's litigation as closed on the strength of the class action alone.
4. New falsification test 9, which makes the competitive displacement in hyperscaler demand (S7) settleable from filings for the first time. That assertion had been recorded as untestable, and the limitation is withdrawn.
5. Standing conditions rise from nine to ten in the masthead.
No dated catalyst changed number and no existing standing condition changed number, the new one having been appended at the end of that list.
Not changed: the horizon structure and band boundaries, the section order, the thirteen dated catalysts and their timing, the dilution overlay, and the reading that nothing here is decisive except a tenant lease that has no date.
Revised against a full EDGAR form-by-form review and the 31 July market close. No new MARA SEC filings or press releases since 9 July (8-K) and 22 July (press release), so the company-specific pipeline is unchanged. Changes against the 27 July build:
1. New item 11, $48.1M of 1.00% convertible notes mature Dec 1, 2026. The calendar now carries 16 dated catalysts.
2. Item 8, Long Ridge now dated to the contractual termination right after Nov 30, 2026, replacing the softer "by Dec 31, 2026" read of the guidance.
3. Item 2, CLARITY Act vote upgraded to imminent, week of 3–7 Aug, colliding with earnings.
4. Item 6, Matagorda restated: partly optioned land, 2,000 MW held via utility letter agreement, shortfall payments beyond the $600M headline.
5. Item 1, Strategy's $8.22B Q2 loss added as a mark-to-market read-across ahead of 6 Aug.
6. S3 rewritten for a hold-or-hike path after the 29 Jul FOMC 9–3 vote with three dissents; Jackson Hole 27–29 Aug added.
7. S2, energised hashrate fell 72.2 to 70.7 EH/s between 31 Mar and 31 May; the fleet has stopped growing.
8. S1 Bitcoin ~$63,000; S6 IREN and Bitcoin-levered divergence; S5 shelf and S-8 mechanics added.
9. Debt upgraded from third-party estimate to filing-verified, $2,297.2M convertible principal, itemised by tranche.
10. Correction: insider selling recast as mechanical Rule 10b5-1 activity on plans adopted May and Sept 2025, predating the strategy, rather than a discretionary signal.
11. Null categories extended: no Schedule 13D, no NT filing ever, foreign-issuer forms and S-1 structurally inapplicable.
Not changed: the horizon structure and section order, the six structural conditions, the nine completed events, and the absence of any buyback, dividend, investor day or management change.
Initial construction of the calendar. Nothing precedes this entry.
Scope: 15 dated catalysts across three horizons, 6 structural conditions, 9 completed events.
Sources: Q1 2026 shareholder letter (11 May) · Q4/FY2025 shareholder letter (26 Feb) · press releases 30 Apr, 15 May, 9 Jul, 22 Jul · market data 23–24 Jul ($12.96)
Structure: How to Read · horizons 1–3 · Structural Backdrop · Completed & Confirmed · Dilution Overlay · Null Categories · Summary · Methodology
Three conventions were fixed at this point and have held since. Confidence rates timing certainty, never outcome: a High-confidence catalyst may still deliver terrible news. Structural items carry a "Why undated" row in place of Confidence, because rating a continuous exposure for timing certainty is a category error. And the Fed appears once, inside S3, rather than as separate meeting cards across horizons, to avoid double-counting one exposure.