A $4 billion revenue target, $710 million of booked backlog, and $11.9 billion already committed

01Snapshot

Key figures, each tagged by provenance. Balance sheet items are at March 31, 2026 unless stated.

02Business model

IREN secures grid-connected land and power, builds its own data centers on it, buys GPUs, and rents compute. It owns each layer rather than leasing capacity from someone who does, and it describes itself as a vertically integrated AI Cloud provider. The company was incorporated in New South Wales on November 6, 2018 as Iris Energy Pty Ltd, converted to a public company on October 7, 2021, listed on Nasdaq on November 19, 2021, and changed its name to IREN Limited on November 27, 2024. Filed

The four layers

Power and land. Seven sites hold executed grid connection agreements, letters of agreement or equivalents totalling 4,510MW: Childress, Texas at 750MW, Sweetwater 1 at 1,400MW, Sweetwater 2 at 600MW, a site in Oklahoma at 1,600MW, and three in British Columbia, Canal Flats at 30MW, Mackenzie at 80MW and Prince George at 50MW. The company separately describes a 5GW secured power portfolio, which is the wider figure including sites without executed connection documents. Filed Its own presentation identifies what fills the gap, and this report did not name it. Page 27 of the Q3 FY26 results presentation of May 7, 2026 sets the portfolio out site by site, and the only component outside the seven sites above is Spain at 490MW. Estimate The arithmetic closes exactly: 4,510MW of executed documents plus 490MW is 5,000MW. The Spain component carries no executed connection document, which is what the wider figure was already saying without saying where.

Data centers. Childress is the build. Horizon 1 to 4 are direct-to-chip liquid-cooled facilities carrying roughly 200MW of critical IT load, and Horizons 5 and 6 add a further 150MW. Total AI Cloud capacity is targeted at 480MW by the end of calendar 2026 and 1,210MW during 2027. Filed Two bases are in play in that first sentence and nothing above signals where one ends. Page 9 of the Q3 FY26 results presentation of May 7, 2026 heads Horizon 1 to 4 “+300MW”; page 14 heads Childress “+400MW” and splits it into 100MW of IT load for Horizons 5 and 6 plus 250MW of retrofitted air-cooled capacity. Estimate The 300MW and the 200MW are the same buildings measured gross and at critical IT load, so they do not disagree. The 150MW does. It follows an IT-load figure inside one sentence and so reads as IT load, and the issuer's IT-load figure for those two facilities is 100MW. Not reconciled here, because the presentation predates this report by three months and 150MW may be the later number. The retrofit is the part carried above with no figure at all, and the company puts it at 250MW. The 480MW and 1,210MW targets are gross, on the same basis as the portfolio bar rather than as the IT-load figure beside them.

Compute. Roughly 150,000 GPUs were installed or on order at March 31, 2026, bought through Dell under a series of purchase agreements totalling approximately $10.9bn of stated purchase price across four transactions since November 2025. Filed

Cloud and software. The company sells both bare metal and managed cloud services, and in May 2026 agreed to acquire Mirantis, Inc., a cloud software and services provider, for approximately $625M payable mostly in shares; that acquisition completed on August 3, 2026. Filed

What is being retired

Bitcoin mining built the business and is being wound down. The company reported 38 EH/s of installed hashrate at March 31, 2026 and, after that date, announced that all Bitcoin mining at Childress will cease over time as data centers are redeployed. It estimates additional impairment charges of approximately $520M from that transition, an estimate it describes as preliminary and subject to further evaluation. Filed

The company mined 5,153 Bitcoin in the nine months to March 31, 2026 against 3,674 in the comparable period, and liquidates what it mines daily, so it held no Bitcoin on balance sheet at March 31, 2026. That is a deliberate choice not to run a treasury, and it separates IREN from several listed miners whose balance sheets move with the coin price. Filed

03Revenue streams

Two streams, moving in opposite directions. Quarterly split as filed.

Mining fell $56.2M quarter on quarter. The company attributes $25.8M of the decline to a lower average Bitcoin price and $4.2M to fewer Bitcoin mined, the latter reflecting a rise in implied global hashrate partly offset by growth in its own operating capacity. AI Cloud nearly doubled off a small base, adding $16.3M, so the net movement was a $39.9M decline. Filed

Cost of revenue moved with it, down $25.9M to $39.9M, driven by lower electricity cost as mining capacity came out. AI Cloud cost of revenue was $4.6M against $33.6M of AI Cloud revenue, a gross margin materially wider than mining's, though the comparison excludes the depreciation of the GPUs themselves, which sits below the line at $121.2M for the group. Filed

The contracted book

The gap between what has been announced and what has been booked is the most important number in this document, so it is set out in one place.

These are not competing estimates of one quantity. They are different quantities, and the filing says exactly what separates them: "The Group includes amounts in unsatisfied RPO only for tranches that have been delivered and accepted, of which there have been nil as of the reporting date." Announced contract value is the whole five-year term at signature. The remaining performance obligation is the part the company is presently entitled to bill for work not yet done. On the largest contract in the company's history, that part was zero at the last balance sheet date. Filed

The $120.4M of deferred revenue is the countervailing fact and it is growing fast, from $0.9M nine months earlier. Microsoft pays 20% of each tranche's value before its delivery date, credited back against service fees only after the twenty-fourth month of that tranche's term. Cash is arriving ahead of revenue, which is the shape of the model working as designed. Filed

04Industry & market backdrop

The bid for AI compute has moved upstream from chips to the things that constrain chip deployment: interconnected power, shell capacity and the operational capability to commission at scale. Management describes time-to-compute as the binding constraint, and the contract structure it has won is consistent with that: hyperscalers and model developers contracting years of capacity from a third party rather than building it.

Texas interconnection is changing under the company's feet

Three of the seven sites sit in ERCOT, and 2,750MW of the 4,510MW total is Texas. On July 11, 2026 the process by which large loads connect to that grid changed. The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved Planning Guide Revision Request 145 and Nodal Protocol Revision Request 1325, implementing the Batch Zero process, with the previous individual study-based process running only through the end of July 10, 2026. ERCOT describes Batch Zero as a transitional process that evaluates large load interconnection requests system-wide and allocates available transmission capacity to studied and committed loads. Filed ERCOT Market Notice M-B062326-01, Jun 23, 2026.

The company names this risk itself, referring to ERCOT's announced amendments to the approval process for large load interconnection requests and to a process that may batch multiple requests. Sweetwater 1 and Sweetwater 2, at 2,000MW between them, are the exposure: an individual study queue rewards being early, a batch process rewards being mature and committed at the batch date. Filed

The 1,600MW Oklahoma site is outside ERCOT and is not governed by this change. The British Columbia sites sit under a different utility and regulator again.

The hardware cycle

The Microsoft deployment is NVIDIA GB300. The Childress air-cooled deployment announced in May 2026 is Blackwell, targeted for commissioning in early 2027. The company's own risk disclosure names hardware obsolescence and the impairment it causes as a material exposure, and the $140.4M impairment in the March 2026 quarter plus the further $520M it expects from the mining transition are that exposure realized on the previous generation of hardware rather than on GPUs. A reader should treat the useful-life assumption on a GPU fleet bought for roughly $10.9bn as the single largest accounting judgment in this business.

05Competitive position

Named peers on comparable metrics, not a general market description.

IREN sits between two groups that are usually analyzed separately. It came out of listed Bitcoin mining, where its peers name it as a competitor, and it now sells into the market served by the AI neoclouds.

What actually distinguishes it

Three things are checkable rather than asserted. First, the power position: 4,510MW under executed connection documents is large relative to the listed miner group and is the asset the neoclouds do not have. Second, the customer list. As at July 20, 2026 it comprised Microsoft, NVIDIA, Perplexity, Figure AI, Together AI, Fluidstack, Fireworks AI, Fal AI, Hume AI and one further developer not named, across bare metal and managed services. Third, the NVIDIA relationship is unusual in kind: alongside the $3.4bn services contract, NVIDIA holds rights to buy 30,000,000 ordinary shares at $70.00, vesting on delivery volumes of up to 600,000 GPUs. A supplier taking an equity position that vests on how much it ships is a different alignment from a purchase order. Filed

06Financial performance

Fiscal year ends 30 June. Figures for FY2023 to FY2025 are as restated under US GAAP in the Form 10-K of August 28, 2025.

Filed Form 10-K, Aug 28, 2025, and Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026. Cost of revenue and net income for FY2023 and FY2024 read n/a because the 10-K's selected data presents those years on a basis that does not isolate them on the same line; the full statements are in that filing.

The trend, stated

Revenue rose 6.6 times across three fiscal years and the company reached its first full-year operating profit in FY2025, $17.3M on $501.0M. Fiscal 2026 has gone the other way. The nine-month operating loss of $426.3M is not an operating-cost story: $305.6M of it is depreciation and $188.4M is impairment, together $494.0M against a nine-month revenue of $569.8M. Depreciation more than doubled quarter on quarter as data centers and GPUs came into service ahead of the revenue they were built for.

The nine-month net loss of $18.6M is much smaller than the operating loss because $409.6M of non-operating income sits between them, and that item is volatile in both directions. It was $651.7M positive in the September 2025 quarter, $221.5M negative in the December quarter, and $20.6M negative in the March quarter. The December swing includes a $111.8M debt conversion inducement expense and a $107.4M unrealized loss on financial instruments; the March quarter includes a $23.7M unrealized loss on the capped calls. Reading the net line alone will mislead in any single quarter. Filed

Cash

Filed Results release, May 7, 2026.

Operations generate cash, modestly and consistently. Investing consumed $1,477.1M in the March quarter alone, $949.2M on property, plant and equipment and $406.1M on computer hardware, and the shortfall is met from the capital markets. That is the arithmetic of the whole business at present: roughly $75M a quarter in, roughly $1.5bn a quarter out, and the difference raised. The $3.0bn convertible issue of May 14, 2026 and the $3.6bn project financing of May 29, 2026 are what the June quarter's version of that gap looked like.

07Capital structure & dilution

Ordinary shares, B Class shares, five convertible series, capped calls, prepaid forwards, an at-the-market program, supplier equity rights and ring-fenced project debt.

Equity

357,378,674 ordinary shares were outstanding at April 30, 2026, up from 283,465,490 at October 31, 2025. A further 15,877,502 shares were issued under the at-the-market program after March 31, 2026 for gross proceeds of approximately $683.5M, and the Form 10-Q's subsequent-events note does not state how much of that sits inside the 30 April cover-page count. The count used in this document is therefore a floor rather than a current figure. Filed

Two B Class shares are also outstanding, held by Awassi Capital Holdings 1 Pty Ltd and Awassi Capital Holdings 2 Pty Ltd as trustees. Each carries fifteen votes per ordinary share held by that holder, and together they gave the Co-Founders and Co-Chief Executives approximately 35.4% of the voting power of outstanding capital stock at August 15, 2025. B Class shares carry no dividend entitlement and each holder may designate a nominee for election to the board. Filed

Convertible notes

Filed Forms 8-K of Oct 14, 2025, Dec 8, 2025 and May 14, 2026, and Form 10-Q of May 8, 2026 for the residual balance. Two distinct series carry a 1.00% coupon and a 2033 maturity; they differ in issue date, maturity day, conversion price and cap, and are not the same instrument.

The conversion prices matter against a $43.67 close. The two cheapest series convert at $51.40, 18% above the current price; the largest series converts at $73.07, 67% above it. None is close to the money, so none is presently a live dilution event, and the capped calls sit above each conversion price again. The maximum share counts issuable on conversion, as stated at issue, are 16,641,700 for the 2031 series, 27,966,850 each for the two December 2025 series, and 54,396,900 for the May 2026 series. Filed

The capped calls have cost real money: $56.7M in October 2025, $201.0M in December 2025 and $201.3M in May 2026, $459.0M in total, paid in cash to narrow a dilution that has not yet occurred. They also introduce mark-to-market noise, including the $23.7M unrealized loss in the March 2026 quarter. Estimate The $459.0M total is the sum of three filed figures.

Ring-fenced project debt

On May 29, 2026 a wholly owned subsidiary entered approximately $3.6bn of financing to fund the Microsoft deployment: an approximately $1.5bn delayed draw term loan at term SOFR plus 2.25% with a 0.40% commitment fee on undrawn amounts, and $2.1bn of 5.96% senior notes due December 31, 2031, under a common terms agreement. Drawings are available until May 29, 2027. The obligations are secured on the subsidiary's assets, including the GPUs and the Microsoft cash flows, and on a pledge of 100% of its equity. Filed Form 8-K, Jun 1, 2026.

The parent's guarantees are deliberately narrow: performance by an affiliate manager under a managed services agreement, and any shortfall attributable to a tranche of GPU services that Microsoft does not accept or terminates, to the extent not covered by remarketing the hardware. The parent does not guarantee the subsidiary's obligations generally. The structure requires a debt service coverage ratio of at least 1.05 to 1.00 tested quarterly, with mandatory prepayment triggers if that ratio falls below 1.10 to 1.00 for six consecutive months, if the projected ratio for the third and fourth tranches would be below 1.20 to 1.00, or if loan-to-cost exceeds 65%. Filed

Supplier and management equity

NVIDIA holds investment rights over 30,000,000 ordinary shares at $70.00, for gross proceeds of up to approximately $2.1bn if fully exercised, vesting in tranches on deliveries of up to 600,000 GPUs and exercisable through May 7, 2031, with a six-month restriction on shares issued. On June 30, 2026 the board approved grants of 9,099,328 restricted stock units to each of the two Co-Chief Executives, granted on or about July 1, 2026, vesting in four equal annual tranches with a further two-year holding period on each tranche and no further equity grants to either until fiscal 2031. The independent chair's letter of July 8, 2026 states that across the 2025 and 2026 awards each Co-Chief Executive has received restricted stock units representing in aggregate approximately 3% of the company. Filed

Dilution, totalled

The convertible maximum is a ceiling reached only well above current prices and is reduced in practice by the capped calls and by the company's right to settle in cash. It is shown because the ceiling is what a reader needs to bound the case, not because it is expected.

08Valuation

Multiples shown with their basis and pricing date. No target price is derived here.

Enterprise value, as components

No single enterprise value is struck here, for the reason given in section 1. The components, each with its own date, are: market capitalization of $15,606.7M on the August 12, 2026 close and a April 30, 2026 share count; convertible principal of $6,745.7M after the May 14, 2026 issue; finance lease liabilities of $274.3M at March 31, 2026; cash of $7.6bn at June 30, 2026, preliminary and unaudited, of which $1.7bn is restricted; and an undisclosed drawn balance under the $3.6bn project financing available from May 29, 2026. A reader wanting one number can assemble it; they should not read the result as a like-for-like figure. Estimate

Third-party coverage: the sixteen firms the issuer names

The company's investor relations page names sixteen covering firms, read on August 4, 2026. All sixteen are tabled below with the analyst, date, rating, target and price at publication that a source establishes for each. Ratings and targets are market data. This document adopts none of them, issues no rating of its own, and derives no target. No figure anywhere in this document comes from a research note. Market

The evidence behind the rows is not uniform, and the Basis column is where the difference is visible rather than assumed. Five rows rest on notes read in full: Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, Needham, Compass Point and H.C. Wainwright, all published within three days of the July 20, 2026 announcement of $2.8bn of new AI Cloud contracts and the raising of the year-end 2026 run-rate target from $3.7bn to more than $4bn. That is what allows their disclosure blocks to be quoted in each publisher's own terms. Eleven rest on data services, and each of those cells names the service that carries the figure and says the note itself was not read. A service is a courier for a claim about what a firm published; it is not the firm, and a target no service can date is not carried here at all.

Price at publication is the last close before the action's date, not the close on that date: a note carrying a given date is written against the preceding session. Every figure in that column is the Nasdaq close of the preceding trading day, taken from the exchange's own historical record on August 4, 2026 and agreeing to the cent with a second service on every date the two both carry. Where an action follows a day the market did not trade, the last session before it is used: the action of July 6, 2026 is set against the 2 July close, the 3rd being a holiday on which no session ran.

Four disclosure statements are established, of sixteen firms. They are Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, Needham and H.C. Wainwright, summarized above in each publisher's own terms. Compass Point's is not, and its cell says so rather than being left blank or read as nil: what a firm discloses about its book as a whole is not a statement about any one issuer in it. For the eleven firms carried from data services no disclosure statement was read at all, and every one of those cells says so. What the issuer's own filings say about these firms is a separate and more complete record, and it is set out next.

What the issuer's own filings say about these firms

A firm's disclosure statement is one route to a conflict; the issuer's own filings are another, and the second reaches firms whose notes were never read. The prospectus supplement of March 4, 2026 names the sales agents under the company's at-the-market program, an authority of up to $6.0bn: B. Riley Securities, Canaccord Genuity, Cantor Fitzgerald, Citigroup Global Markets, Compass Point Research and Trading, J.P. Morgan Securities, Macquarie Capital (USA) and Roth Capital Partners, joined on that date by Citizens JMP Securities, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies. Eleven agents, on a commission of up to 1.25% of gross sales price. Filed

Separately, the registered direct offering of 39,699,102 ordinary shares at $41.12 priced on December 4, 2025 named Citigroup Global Markets, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Securities as placement agents. Filed

Read against the sixteen covering firms, that gives three groups:

• Ten covering firms the issuer's own filings name as its sales agents: B. Riley, Canaccord Genuity, Cantor Fitzgerald, Citizens, Compass Point, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, JPMorgan, Macquarie and Roth Capital Partners.
• Six the filings do not name as agents: Arete Research, Bernstein, BTIG, Freedom Capital Markets, H.C. Wainwright and Needham.
• One agent that covers nothing: Citigroup Global Markets is a sales agent and a placement agent and appears on no version of the issuer's coverage list.

The agent list is a floor on the banking relationships, not a census of them. Needham is not a sales agent and discloses in its own note that it received investment banking compensation from the company and makes a market in the shares. A firm absent from the agent list may have no relationship with the issuer, or may have one that the filings read for this document do not name. That asymmetry is the reason the finding below is put as a distribution rather than as a rule.

Research models. One of the sixteen publishes its own. Arete Research states that it takes no compensation of any kind from the companies it analyzes and is paid by the institutional investors who subscribe to it. Market For the other fifteen no published statement of the research model was read, so the model is not established for them. Being a sales agent is a banking relationship and not a research-payment arrangement; the two are different things and neither implies the other. No firm on the issuer's list was identified as a sponsored-research house, and that is a statement about what was found rather than a clearance.

What this section does not cover

Two houses carry ratings on data services and do not appear on the issuer's list. UBS was last reported reiterating a Buy on November 7, 2025, and JonesTrading, analyst Stephen Glagola, downgrading to Hold on September 2, 2025. Market A covering house absent from the issuer's own list may have ended coverage and left its last view in the service's data, where nothing distinguishes that from live coverage. Neither is reported here as current and neither is tabled above. Two model-derived rating services, Weiss Ratings and Zacks Research, also carry ratings on the shares; a service of that kind was never going to appear on an issuer's coverage list, so its absence there is expected and is not evidence either way.

No note was read for any of the eleven firms carried from services. Their ratings and targets are reported on the service's authority, not on the firm's, and their disclosure statements, their published rationale and their estimates are all outside what this document establishes. Where two services disagree about who authored an action, both attributions are given in the row rather than one being chosen.

Half of this predates the announcement, and the date is where that shows

A target is a claim about a moment, so a date does work that a number cannot. Split at the July 20, 2026 announcement of $2.8bn of contracts and the raised run-rate target, the sixteen divide exactly in half. Eight actions are dated on or after 20 July: Goldman Sachs and Cantor Fitzgerald on the 20th, Needham, Compass Point, Canaccord Genuity and Citizens on the 21st, H.C. Wainwright on the 22nd and Bernstein on the 30th. Eight predate it: Macquarie on 15 July, Freedom Capital Markets on 6 July, Jefferies on 18 June, B. Riley on 4 June, JPMorgan and BTIG on 11 May, Roth Capital Partners on November 3, 2025 and Arete Research on September 24, 2025. The eight were struck before the company raised its own year-end revenue target, and the two oldest predate that by nine and ten months. They are reported as what each service carries at the date it was read, never as current views.

Publication and currency are different questions, and only the first is settled. All sixteen firms appear on the issuer's own list, read August 4, 2026, which is the company asserting that each still follows it. That supports coverage; it says nothing about when any number was last revisited, and a firm that stops revising a target usually leaves the last one in a service's data indefinitely. Where a target is old, its age is in the table and the reader can weigh it.

The FY2026 annual report is due by August 29, 2026 and will carry the first audited figures for the year, the transition impairment and the first opinion from a new auditor. Any of the sixteen not reissued after it will be a target struck before the year's results, and this section will say so.

What the dispersion is actually about

Ratings run from Underweight through Neutral and Hold to Buy, Overweight and Market Outperform. Fifteen of the sixteen publish a target and they run from $46 to $105, the high 2.28 times the low; the sixteenth declines to publish one at all. Within the five notes read on a single week's information the spread was almost as wide, none at all to $105 against closes of $40.20 on the 20th, $41.29 on the 21st and $41.28 on the 22nd. A spread of that width is not a disagreement about what the company has contracted: the contracts are public, they are the same documents for every reader, and their headline values are not in dispute anywhere.

What separates the views is when contracted capacity becomes recognized revenue, and this company's own accounting makes that the hinge rather than a matter of taste. Fiscal 2026 ended on June 30, 2026 and three of its four quarters were on file by May 8, 2026, before fourteen of the sixteen actions above; only Arete Research's and Roth Capital Partners' predate that. For the fourteen the near term is largely history and leaves little room to differ. Fiscal 2027 is entirely forward. It turns on the commissioning schedule for Horizon 1 to 4, about which the filings say only that delivery is targeted by the end of calendar 2026, and on the acceptance process that follows delivery. The revenue policy admits a tranche to remaining performance obligations only once it has been delivered and accepted, and at March 31, 2026 there had been nil. A reader who assumes acceptance early in fiscal 2027 and a reader who assumes it late are both consistent with everything on file, and the two readings do not produce the same revenue for that year from identical contracts. Filed

Conflict does not sort these views, and the wider set says so on better evidence than the narrower one did. The relationship used here is the one the issuer's own filings establish, which reaches all sixteen firms by presence or absence, rather than the four disclosure statements that were all the earlier version had. On that record a banking relationship sits at both ends of the range and through the middle of it.

The lowest target of the set is an agent's and so is the highest. JPMorgan is Underweight at $46, the only Underweight among the sixteen, and is both a sales agent under the at-the-market program and a placement agent on the December 2025 offering. Compass Point is Buy at $105, the highest of the sixteen, and is a sales agent. Goldman Sachs, an agent on both counts and the only one of the four read disclosures recording a stake of 5% or more, is Neutral at $50. Cantor Fitzgerald, an agent, is Overweight at $99. B. Riley at $96, Roth Capital Partners at $94, Macquarie at $90, Citizens at $80, and Canaccord Genuity and Jefferies at $79 are agents too, and they occupy most of what lies between.

The six the filings do not name as agents are spread just as widely: Bernstein at $100, H.C. Wainwright at $90, BTIG at $80, Arete Research at $78, Freedom Capital Markets at $58, and Needham declining to publish a target at all. The one abstention in the set belongs to a firm that is not an agent and that discloses in its own note that it received banking compensation from the company, which is the case that stops the agent list being read as a census of the relationships.

What that rests on is worth stating plainly, because it is not the same evidence in every cell. The agency relationships are the issuer's own filings and cover all sixteen firms. The disclosure statements are the firms' own and cover four. The ratings and targets are five notes read in full and eleven service records. On the strongest of the three, a banking relationship established from the issuer's filings appears at the bottom of the target range, at the top of it, and at most points between, and its absence appears at $58, $78, $80, $90 and $100. Whatever separates these views, it does not line up with who banks the company.

Two limits hold this to a distribution rather than a rule. Absence from the agent list is not absence of a relationship, and Needham is the proof of that inside this table. And this is one issuer's coverage read at one date; nothing general about research follows from it.

Other published views and market data

Two providers publish an aggregate and they do not agree, which is itself the finding. S&P Global reports an average of $81.07 over sixteen contributors with a range of $41 to $126; MarketBeat reports $82.71 over twenty-one with a range of $46 to $105. The averages are close and nothing else is. The contributor counts differ by five, and the ranges do not nest: S&P Global's low is $5 below MarketBeat's and its high is $21 above it. MarketBeat's two extremes both appear in the table above, at JPMorgan's $46 and Compass Point's $105; neither of S&P Global's does, so its set holds at least two targets this document has not seen. Each is reported as what that provider published, over the set that provider used, at the date it was read. Neither is averaged with the other, and no average, midpoint or center is computed here from the sixteen firms above, because doing so would be this document deriving a target.

Against the 3 August close the S&P Global aggregate stands 104% above it and the MarketBeat aggregate 108%. Set beside short interest above a quarter of the shares outstanding, the picture is of a security on which informed opinion is unusually divided. None of that is evidence about the business, and the division is not itself an argument in either direction.

09Growth drivers

Commissioning Horizon 1 to 4. Roughly 200MW of critical IT load in liquid-cooled capacity at Childress carries the Microsoft contract. Delivery is targeted by the end of calendar 2026 and revenue recognition begins on delivery and acceptance of each tranche. This is the single driver that converts announced value into booked revenue, and nothing else on this list matters as much. Filed

The 2027 build. Childress Horizons 5 and 6, Childress air-cooled retrofit capacity, and the initial phase of Sweetwater 1 take targeted AI Cloud capacity to 1,210MW during 2027. The company sizes all three and this paragraph carried no figure for any of them. Its Q3 FY26 results presentation of May 7, 2026 gives Horizons 5 and 6 as 100MW of critical IT load, the air-cooled retrofit as 250MW, and the initial phase of Sweetwater 1 as 200MW of critical IT load under a 300MW gross heading. Estimate The bases differ and the figures do not add. The 1,210MW target is gross, so the two IT-load figures above are not components of it. Filed

Customer diversification. The book has moved from one hyperscaler in November 2025 to ten named or referenced counterparties by July 2026, with contracts announced on July 20, 2026 carrying customer prepayments of approximately 45% of the associated GPU capital expenditure and a weighted average portfolio term of roughly four years. A prepayment at that level materially changes the funding requirement per megawatt. Filed

Geographic extension. The pending acquisition of Ingenostrum, S.L., trading as Nostrum Group, adds 490MW in Spain and a development pipeline described as gigawatt-plus, for approximately EUR 165M in a 65% cash and 35% share mix. Australian development projects are described as advancing toward a connection agreement. Filed

Moving up the stack. Mirantis, at approximately $625M, is bought for orchestration, software and support capability rather than for capacity, and is the mechanism by which managed services can be sold at a different margin from bare metal. It completed on August 3, 2026, so this is capability now held rather than contracted for: the company describes Mirantis as serving more than 1,500 enterprise customers and as an inaugural partner of the NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready Initiative, and states that it has already facilitated several announced and prospective AI Cloud contracts. Filed

10Risks

Severity-ranked, most severe first.

11Bull / base / bear

Each case with its preconditions: what must be true, not what might be.

12Research summary

IREN has converted a Bitcoin mining estate into a contracted AI infrastructure business faster than any of its listed peers, and the contracts are with counterparties that do not sign lightly. Announced contract value across the Microsoft, NVIDIA and July 2026 agreements exceeds $15.9bn. Against that, the accounts at March 31, 2026 recognized $710.3M of unsatisfied remaining performance obligations and nil delivered-and-accepted tranches under the largest of those contracts.

That is not a contradiction and it is not a red flag on its own. It is the definition of the position: the value has been contracted and the revenue has not yet been earned, and everything between the two is execution on a construction and commissioning schedule. The company has funded that schedule aggressively, with $6.7bn of convertible principal, $3.6bn of ring-fenced project debt, an at-the-market program and customer prepayments, and it has bought $459.0M of capped calls to limit the dilution the converts imply.

What a reader should hold on to: revenue fell for three consecutive quarters while commitments rose thirty-two-fold; the auditor is new and the FY2024 opinion carried a going concern paragraph; the two Co-Chief Executives hold roughly 35.4% of the votes and were granted 18,198,656 restricted stock units in July 2026; and a quarter of the shares outstanding are sold short against a consensus target more than double the current price. Almost every one of those facts resolves, one way or the other, on whether Horizon 1 to 4 is delivered and accepted through the back half of 2026.

13Null categories

Requested categories with nothing to report. Status reads Covered above, None where a named source was checked and found empty, or Not established where the category was not examined. A category nobody looked at is a gap, not an absence.

14Methodology & sources

Pricing basis, the tagging scheme, and, importantly, what was not checked.

Pricing basis. All market data is struck on the Nasdaq close of August 12, 2026, the most recent completed session before this stamp, and nothing here is repriced to the day this document is stamped. That session closed at $43.67 on volume of 48,616,710 shares, about 1.10 times the mean of the nine preceding sessions. Share counts are the filed cover-page figure at April 30, 2026, the most recent count on any document lodged with the Securities and Exchange Commission, so every multiple here pairs a current price with a three-month-old count.

How the two earlier bases were chosen, kept as the record and no longer bearing on the figures above. The previous basis was the 3 August close of $39.75, corroborated outside any data service by the company's own prospectus supplement of August 4, 2026, which stated it as the last reported sale price. The 4 August session was excluded at the time because it was still open when the figures were read: the exchange's own quote service returned a market status of Open at 13:55 Eastern time with a last sale of $41.125, against a scheduled close of 16:00, and cumulative volume of 26.9 million shares stood at roughly three fifths of the 43.9 million the 3 August session finished on. Two services quoted different prices minutes apart, which is what an open session looks like; a price that had merely sat still would have established nothing.

Provenance tags

The filing sweep

Run on 2, August 3 and 4, 2026 against the complete submissions index for Central Index Key 1878848, by that identifier and never by ticker: 312 filings, August 26, 2021 to August 4, 2026, with no supplementary index holding older material back. The index grew between each sweep, so every earlier count is superseded rather than confirmed. Two filings were added on August 4, 2026: a Form 8-K under Items 7.01, 8.01 and 9.01 announcing that the Mirantis acquisition had closed, and a Form 424B7 prospectus supplement registering resale of the shares issued for it.

The form string is normalized before the index is filtered, because the Commission has used more than one spelling. The register filings sit under four distinct strings in this index: 9 as SCHEDULE 13G, 2 as SC 13G, 7 as SCHEDULE 13G/A and 2 as SC 13G/A, which is 20 in the Schedule 13G family. Filtering on either spelling alone would return a partial view and read as a complete one. Exhibit lists were opened rather than form types ticked off; the Microsoft Partner Statement of Work, the Dell purchase agreements and the indentures all sit in exhibits rather than in the covering form, the Bank of America statement carries a power of attorney as its only exhibit, and the 8-K of August 4, 2026 carries Australian counsel's validity opinion at Exhibit 5.1 and the closing release at Exhibit 99.1.

The absence of S-1 and S-3 is not a gap: as a foreign private issuer the company used Forms F-1 and F-3, and after the transition it amended its automatic shelf by post-effective amendment on August 28, 2025 rather than filing a new S-3. Eleven such amendments and effectiveness notices sit in the index.

Where this issuer's continuous disclosure actually sits

The question matters because incorporation and filing status point in different directions here, and the answer is not what an Australian incorporation would suggest.

Filing status was established from the forms filed, not from the place of incorporation, and traced to the earliest document that states it. Three dates are involved and each document is accurate from where it stands. The Form 10-K of August 28, 2025 states that "As of December 31, 2024, the Group no longer met the definition of a 'foreign private issuer'", which is the determination date. The Form 8-K of July 3, 2025 states that "Effective July 1, 2025, the Company is required to file periodic reports and registration statements on U.S. domestic issuer forms", which is the date the obligation began. Between those two, the automatic shelf registration statement of January 21, 2025 still described the company as qualifying as a foreign private issuer, which was correct: the test is failed on the determination date but the forms do not change until the first day of the next fiscal year. Reading only the July 2025 filing would date the change six months late; reading only the January 2025 filing would miss it entirely.

The filing record corroborates both. The last Form 6-K was filed June 30, 2025 and the first Form 8-K on July 1, 2025, with the first Forms 3 following on July 3, 2025 as officers and directors came within Exchange Act Section 16.

Outside the SEC, one regulator holds filings and no exchange does. The company is an Australian public company and its own exhibit describing the securities registered under Exchange Act Section 12 states that "All public companies are required to prepare annual financial reports and directors' reports for each financial year, and to file these reports with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission." That obligation arises from the Australian Corporations Act 2001 and is independent of any listing.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission's own register was reached, by a route other than its web search. Its published company register extract for July 2026 was read in full, 4,418,335 rows, on August 2, 2026. It records IREN LIMITED, Australian Company Number 629 842 799, an Australian public company limited by shares, sub-class unlisted, registered and current since November 6, 2018, Australian Business Number 60 629 842 799, with former names Iris Energy Limited and Iris Energy Pty Ltd and the current name effective November 28, 2024. The same extract records BHP Group Limited as sub-class listed, which is the control establishing that the unlisted classification discriminates. The two B Class holders, Awassi Capital Holdings 1 Pty Ltd and Awassi Capital Holdings 2 Pty Ltd, are recorded as registered Australian proprietary companies from November 5, 2018.

No Australian exchange holds anything. The Form 10-K states the ordinary shares are "solely listed on the Nasdaq in the United States", and the Australian Securities Exchange returns no entity for the code IREN, while returning BHP Group Limited, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Iress Limited for their codes on the same request on August 2, 2026.

Full-text search, and the issuer named in others' filings

EDGAR full-text search was run on August 2, 2026 against the underlying index. Searching the current name alone is not sufficient for this issuer and would have produced a false negative: the company was Iris Energy Limited until November 2024 and most third-party references still use that name.

Restricting to periodic and registration forms and excluding the company's own filings, 59 filings by other registrants named it between January 2025 and August 2026. They divide into two groups. The first is competitor and comparison references from listed miners and data center developers, including Riot Platforms, Bitfarms, Cipher, CleanSpark, TeraWulf, Applied Digital, Hyperscale Data, BitGo, SharonAI and Blockfusion. The second is a single genuine relationship: Michael Alfred has served on this company's board since 2021 and joined the board of Bakkt Holdings in September 2025, which is disclosed in Bakkt's Form 8-K of September 22, 2025 and its proxy statement of April 30, 2026. No counterparty, supply, offtake or financing relationship with any other issuer was located through that index.

Third-party research

Section 8 tables the sixteen firms named on the company's investor relations page, read August 4, 2026. Five research notes published between July 20 and 22, 2026 were read in full; for the other eleven firms the rating, target and date come from named data services, read the same day, and no note was read. All of it is used for three things only: the rating, the target and the date, which are market data under the tagging scheme above, and the conflicts each publisher discloses, which are part of the attribution. No figure in this document derives from a research note or from a service's aggregate, and no estimate, model or analysis of theirs is reproduced or summarized here. Where section 8 reaches a view about why the published targets differ, that view is built from this company's own filings, which are cited there, and it would stand if none of the research had been read.

A target read from a data service is cited to the service and not to the firm. The service says a firm published something; the note is where that was said, and only one of those two is in evidence for eleven of the sixteen rows. The sales agency relationships in the same section are a different class of evidence and are cited to the prospectus supplements that state them.

Court dockets

The CourtListener federal docket index was searched on August 2, 2026. It confirms the two matters the filings describe: Network Racing Pty Ltd. v. IREN Limited, District of New Jersey 2:22-cv-07273, filed December 14, 2022 and terminated February 18, 2026, and the appeal at the Third Circuit, number 26-1560, docketed March 20, 2026 and open. The one-week difference between the notice of appeal on 13 March and the docketing on 20 March is the ordinary gap between the two courts, not a discrepancy.

The search also returned In re Iris Energy Limited Securities Litigation, Eastern District of New York 1:24-cv-07046, filed October 7, 2024 and terminated March 19, 2025, nature of suit securities. No filing read for this document describes that matter, which was open and closed between the FY2024 and FY2025 annual reports. Its disposition was not retrieved and nothing here rests on it; it is recorded because a reader repeating this search will find it.

Grid operator data

Checked on August 2, 2026 and the result is partly negative, which is itself the finding. ERCOT's Large Load Integration page publishes the Batch Zero process documents, forms and attestations under Planning Guide Revision Request 145, and ERCOT Market Notice M-B062326-01 of June 23, 2026 gives the approval and the July 11, 2026 effective date. ERCOT does not publish a large load interconnection queue naming the requesting entity in the way it publishes generation interconnection data, so the 750MW at Childress and the 2,000MW at Sweetwater cannot be corroborated site by site against the grid operator. They rest on company disclosure. The Oklahoma site sits outside ERCOT and no equivalent check was made for it, nor for the British Columbia sites.

What was not checked

An unexamined area is a gap, not a clean bill. The following were not reached or not attempted.

• Australian Securities and Investments Commission lodged documents. The company register extract was read in full, but the annual financial reports and directors' reports themselves sit behind a paid document service that was not used. The registry's own web search returned a client-side application rather than data on August 2, 2026.
• Australian Business Register. Queried on August 2, 2026 for both the Australian Company Number and the Australian Business Number. The number search returned "No record found matching ACN 629842799" with the registry's own note that an Australian Company Number appears there only if the company also holds an Australian Business Number, and the record pages render their values in the browser rather than in the response. Treated as not reached rather than as an absence, since the Australian Securities and Investments Commission extract records an Australian Business Number for this entity.
• What twelve of the sixteen covering firms disclose about this issuer. Not established. Four disclosure statements were read, at Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, Needham and H.C. Wainwright. Compass Point's was not, and it publishes an aggregate for its rated book, which is a fact about the book and not about any issuer in it, so nothing about this one is inferred from it. For the eleven firms carried from data services no disclosure statement was sought or read. What the issuer's own filings say about ten of them, that they are its sales agents, is established in section 8 and is a different fact from what any of them discloses.
• The research model of fifteen of the sixteen covering firms. Only Arete Research's is established, from that firm's own published statement. For the rest no statement of how the research is paid for was located, so an issuer-paid arrangement is neither asserted nor excluded for any of them.
• Insider transaction codes. Eighteen Forms 4 were enumerated but not opened, so open-market purchases are not separated from award-related transactions.
• Peer comparables. No peer enterprise value, revenue multiple or contracted-megawatt figure was assembled, so section 5 names peers without pricing them.
• The Microsoft Partner Statement of Work as filed. Its existence and headline terms are taken from the Form 8-K of November 3, 2025 and the Form 10-Q of February 5, 2026 exhibit list. The exhibit's own text, including the redacted portions, was not read line by line.
• The June 2026 quarter. The FY2026 Form 10-K had not been filed as at August 4, 2026, re-established against the complete index on that date. The most recent audited or reviewed financial statements are those to March 31, 2026, and the $7.6bn cash figure at June 30, 2026 is a company statement described as preliminary and unaudited.
• Grid operators other than ERCOT. No check was made against the Southwest Power Pool for the Oklahoma site or against BC Hydro for the three British Columbia sites. The BC Hydro page did not respond on August 2, 2026.
• Trade press and social sentiment. Beyond the analyst and index items cited in section 8, no systematic press or social sweep was run, and no promotional activity finding is asserted either way.
• The disposition of the Eastern District of New York matter described above, and the amount at issue in the Tax Court of Canada appeal.

15Document log

Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.