IREN

Every contract lands in 2027, and the capital that builds them is spent in 2026

IREN · IREN Limited · Catalyst Calendar · as of August 13, 2026

Dated catalysts 15
Standing conditions 12
Resolved 17
Horizon 12 months
Pricing basis Aug 12, 2026 close · $43.67 Market

Basis

  1. The fiscal year ends 30 June, so the annual report covers a June period and the quarterly cadence runs from it. The company checks Large accelerated filer on its cover page, which fixes the annual deadline at 60 days after year end. Reporting dates in the next twelve months are therefore unusually firm; the operational ones are not.
  2. Which items are genuinely scheduled, and which are event-driven and could land any day. The delivery and acceptance of GPU tranches sits in the second group and drives most of the first.
  3. Timing confidence rates the date, never the outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can still be a coin flip.
  4. Estimated dates are cadence-based until the company announces. Treat them as approximate.

01Dated catalysts

Banded 0–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 months, earliest first. Numbering is gapless and runs straight through the bands, so a boundary never resets the count. An ID marks position in the current ordering and changes between revisions, so catalysts are named by title.

0–3 monthsD1–D3
D1

Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections

Two-sided
Timing August 20, 2026
Impact High
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

The Batch Zero process this file's Sweetwater condition rests on has been suspended. ERCOT suspended that process on August 3, 2026 in market notice M-A080326-01: it will not notify how any large load is classified in the Batch Zero study by August 7, 2026, gives no replacement date, and will seek a good cause exception on the Batch Zero timelines at the Public Utility Commission of Texas open meeting of August 20, 2026. The suspension follows the Governor of Texas directing the Commission and ERCOT, on August 3, 2026, to audit every data center advancing through the interconnection process, with any project failing to comply to be denied connection to the grid. No completion deadline for the audit itself has been named, and the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026 is the next point at which anything about the batch becomes knowable.

Sweetwater 1 at 1,400MW and Sweetwater 2 at 600MW are 44% of the 4,510MW under executed connection documents, and both sit in ERCOT. Three of the seven sites are in that market and 2,750MW of the 4,510MW total is Texas, so this is the largest single regulatory exposure in the file.

Upside

The Commission grants an exception on a short timetable and allocation decisions follow within weeks. An audit that thins a queue the operator has described at more than 438 GW favours committed, mature load over speculative requests, which is the position the company's own risk disclosure says a batch process rewards.

Downside

The timetable is reset rather than extended and the batch slips behind an audit with no completion date. The 1,210MW target for 2027 has Sweetwater as its largest single component, and a pause is a delay to the capacity behind that target rather than to a filing.

Analyst assumption

Whether the Sweetwater sites fall inside the audit's scope is not established here. The directive names projects advancing through the interconnection process and both sites are in it, but which projects the verification reaches, and on what test, is not on any record read. The date is the Commission's own; the outcome for this issuer is unknown and is not guessed at.

Source: ERCOT market notice M-A080326-01, August 3, 2026; Office of the Governor of Texas, directive of August 3, 2026. Filed Neither appears in an SEC filing.

D2

FY2026 results and annual report on Form 10-K

Two-sided
Timing By Aug 29, 2026
Impact High
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

The most information-dense event in the window, and the deadline is statutory rather than a guess: the cover page of the prior annual report checks Large accelerated filer, and that category files within 60 days of a 30 June year end. Last year's annual report and results release both landed on August 28, 2025, 59 days after the period end.

Six things resolve here at once. The approximately $520M of transition impairment the company estimated on May 8, 2026 is either taken, revised or deferred. KPMG issues its first opinion on this company and its first assessment of internal control. The remaining performance obligation at June 30, 2026 shows whether any Microsoft tranche was accepted in the June quarter, against nil at 31 March. The cover page gives a current share count against the 30 April figure the multiples still rest on. The $7.6bn of cash reported as preliminary is confirmed or restated. And the project financing agreements of May 29, 2026 are filed as exhibits, which is where the covenant detail actually becomes readable.

Upside

Accepted tranches appear in remaining performance obligations, the impairment lands at or below the estimate, and the audit and control opinions are clean.

Downside

Remaining performance obligations barely move, impairment exceeds $520M, or a material weakness is reported in the first year under a new auditor.

Source: Form 10-K, August 28, 2025, cover page and Item 9A; Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, subsequent events. Filed

D3

2026 proxy statement and the advisory vote on the founder equity grants

Two-sided
Timing ~early Oct 2026
Impact Medium
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

Last year the preliminary proxy was filed September 22, 2025 and the definitive proxy October 6, 2025. This year's carries the disclosure the independent chair promised in his letter of July 8, 2026: the full accounting value of the July 1, 2026 awards of 9,099,328 restricted stock units to each Co-Chief Executive, the valuation discount applied for the two-year post-vesting holding period, and the market precedent analysis conducted with the compensation consultant.

The chair states shareholders are encouraged to have their say through the advisory vote on executive compensation. The register on which that vote is taken is described in the standing condition on founder voting control (S9).

Upside

A grant-date fair value materially below the headline share value, a defensible precedent set, and the disclosure settles the governance question rather than extending it.

Downside

A very large reported expense, proxy adviser opposition, and a low advisory vote that the board is not obliged to act on.

Source: DEF 14A, October 6, 2025; DEFA14A, July 9, 2026; Form 8-K, July 1, 2026. Filed

3–6 monthsD4–D7
D4

Q1 FY2027 results and Form 10-Q, September quarter

Two-sided
Timing ~Nov 5, 2026
Impact High
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

Cadence estimate from a 37-day lag last year, the widest of the three quarterly lags on record. This is the first quarter in which meaningful AI Cloud revenue from the Childress build could appear, and the first clean read on whether the revenue decline of the last three quarters has turned. AI Cloud revenue ran $17.3M then $33.6M in the December and March quarters against a target measured in billions.

Upside

AI Cloud revenue steps up by an order of magnitude and total revenue rises for the first time in four quarters.

Downside

Mining revenue is largely gone, AI Cloud has not replaced it, and the quarter is the trough with depreciation now running above $120M.

Source: Form 10-Q, November 6, 2025, and the filing lags on the three quarterly reports to date. Filed

D5

2026 annual general meeting

Two-sided
Timing ~Nov 19, 2026
Impact Medium
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

Cadence estimate from the 2025 meeting held November 19, 2025. Directors now stand for election at each annual general meeting following the constitutional amendment approved at that meeting, so the whole board faces a vote. Voting results are reported under Item 5.07 of Form 8-K within four business days.

Upside

Broad support on the compensation vote and director elections removes the governance overhang ahead of the 2027 capital program.

Downside

A weak advisory result or meaningful votes against directors, with the founder voting block making the ordinary-shareholder split hard to read from the totals alone.

Source: Form 8-K, November 24, 2025, Items 3.03, 5.02 and 5.07. Filed

D6

Horizon 1 to 4 delivery and the 480MW year-end target

Two-sided
Timing Dec 31, 2026
Impact High
Confidence Medium
Provenance Filed

The four liquid-cooled data centers at Childress carrying roughly 200MW of critical IT load are stated as on track for delivery by year end, inside a 480MW gross AI Cloud target for the same date. The company states the same four facilities as 300MW. Page 9 of its Q3 FY26 results presentation of May 7, 2026 heads them “Horizon 1-4 (+300MW)”, and page 27 reconciles it: Childress contributes 350MW in 2026, being that 300MW plus a 50MW air-cooled retrofit. Estimate That is the same buildings gross rather than at critical IT load, which is the basis the 480MW target already uses, so the two agree once the basis is said aloud. The deck also names an earlier checkpoint this row does not carry: Horizon 1 was scheduled for handoff to Microsoft in Q3 CY2026, with Horizons 2 to 4 on track for delivery by the end of CY2026. Estimate Nothing in this calendar records whether that handoff happened, and the presentation is three months old, so it is carried as a stated May intention and not as a dated catalyst. This is the physical event on which the Microsoft contract, the project financing and the revenue recognition all depend, and the company's own contract terms give Microsoft a termination right, subject to cure, for missed delivery dates.

Delivery is not the same event as acceptance, and the calendar keeps them apart: acceptance is the standing condition on Microsoft tranche acceptance (S1).

Upside

All four facilities delivered inside the window, commissioning begins, and the first tranches move toward acceptance in the March 2027 quarter.

Downside

A slip pushes acceptance into the second half of 2027, delays the drawdown schedule, and puts the delivery-date cure provisions into play.

Source: Results release, May 7, 2026; Form 8-K, November 3, 2025, Item 1.01. Filed

D7

Year-end 2026 annualised run-rate revenue measurement

Two-sided
Timing Dec 31, 2026
Impact High
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

The date is fixed by the metric's own definition rather than by a company announcement, which is why timing confidence is High while the value is entirely open. The company defines the measure as GPU-hour pricing for commissioned GPUs as of December 31, 2026, multiplied by 8,760 hours, plus annualised storage and ancillaries. The target moved from $3.7bn to more than $4bn on July 20, 2026, with approximately 85% stated as under contract.

Two figures in circulation are on different bases and should not be netted. The $4.4bn published on May 26, 2026 is a post-commissioning construct that includes the Childress Blackwell deployment expected in early 2027; the $4bn published on July 20, 2026 is measured at December 31, 2026. The first is a later date and a larger number, the second is the one that lands inside this window.

Upside

Commissioned capacity at the measurement date supports a figure at or near $4bn, converting the target into an observed metric.

Downside

Commissioning slips past the measurement date, and a metric defined on commissioned GPUs registers a fraction of the target through no change in the contract book.

Source: Company releases of May 26, 2026 and July 20, 2026, assumptions and notes. Filed

6–12 monthsD8–D11
D8

Q2 FY2027 results and Form 10-Q, December quarter

Two-sided
Timing ~Feb 4, 2027
Impact High
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

Cadence estimate from a 36-day lag last year. The first report published after the December 31, 2026 measurement date, so it is where the year-end capacity target is reconciled against what was actually commissioned, and where the remaining performance obligation should first reflect accepted Microsoft tranches if delivery held.

Upside

Remaining performance obligations step up by billions rather than millions, and quarterly revenue reflects a commissioned fleet.

Downside

Backlog is still measured in hundreds of millions a year after the largest contract was signed, with a full year of depreciation now running against it.

Source: Form 10-Q, February 5, 2026, and the filing lags on the three quarterly reports to date. Filed

D9

Childress air-cooled Blackwell commissioning

Two-sided
Timing Early 2027
Impact High
Confidence Low
Provenance Filed

Air-cooled Blackwell systems bought from Dell for approximately $1.6bn, deployed across existing data centers at Childress within 60MW, serving the five-year $3.4bn NVIDIA contract. Commissioning is targeted for early 2027 and the company states it would take run-rate revenue from $3.7bn to $4.4bn. Timing confidence is Low because "early 2027" is the company's own phrasing and no month is given.

Upside

Commissioning inside the first quarter of 2027 validates the retrofit route, which is faster and cheaper per megawatt than greenfield liquid-cooled build.

Downside

Retrofit of data centers designed for mining hardware proves slower than expected, and $1.6bn of hardware sits uncommissioned while depreciation runs.

Source: Form 8-K and company release, May 26, 2026, Item 1.01. Filed

D10

Q3 FY2027 results and Form 10-Q, March quarter

Two-sided
Timing ~May 7, 2027
Impact Medium
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

Cadence estimate from a 38-day lag last year. By this report the transition should be complete on both sides: no Bitcoin mining revenue at Childress and a full quarter of contracted AI Cloud revenue. It is the first period that can be compared against the March 2026 quarter on a like basis, which showed $144.8M of revenue and a $247.8M net loss.

Upside

A clean quarter of contracted cloud revenue at a margin that supports the fixed cost base, with the mining comparison finally out of the way.

Downside

Utilization below contract assumptions, or pricing below the GPU-hour rates the run-rate metric was built on, with no mining revenue left to cushion it.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, and the filing lags on the three quarterly reports to date. Filed

D11

Delayed draw availability period ends at the financing subsidiary

Two-sided
Timing May 29, 2027
Kind Threshold
Impact High
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

A contractual date, not an estimate. Borrowings under the approximately $1.5bn delayed draw term loan and issuances of the $2.1bn of 5.96% senior notes are available until May 29, 2027, subject to certain extensions. A commitment fee of 0.40% per annum runs on the undrawn portion throughout. Anything not drawn by then must be funded another way.

Upside

The full $3.6bn is drawn against delivered tranches, and the Microsoft build is funded without further recourse to equity.

Downside

Delivery delay leaves commitments undrawn at expiry, the commitment fee has been paid for capacity never used, and replacement funding is sought on 2027 terms.

Source: Form 8-K, June 1, 2026, Items 1.01 and 2.03. Filed

Beyond 12 months, context onlyD12–D15

Structural items that shape the backdrop but do not trade in the window.

D12

NVIDIA investment rights expiry

Neutral
Timing May 7, 2031
Kind Threshold
Impact Medium
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

Rights over 30,000,000 ordinary shares at $70.00, for gross proceeds of up to approximately $2.1bn, exercisable through May 7, 2031 subject to terms and conditions. Vesting is tied to deliveries of up to 600,000 GPUs, so the rights and the delivery schedule move together.

Upside

Deliveries vest the tranches and the supplier funds up to $2.1bn of primary capital at a price well above the current level.

Downside

Deliveries fall short, the rights never vest, and a funding source counted in the plan is not there.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, subsequent events; results release, May 7, 2026. Filed

D13

Convertible maturity ladder

Neutral
Timing Jul 1, 2031 to Dec 1, 2033
Impact High
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

Four series mature in sequence: $1,000M of zero-coupon notes on July 1, 2031, $1,150M at 0.25% on June 1, 2032, $1,150M at 1.00% on June 1, 2033, and $3,000M at 1.00% on December 1, 2033, alongside a $445.7M residual of the 2029 and 2030 series. Conversion prices are $85.63, $51.40, $51.40 and $73.07 against a $43.67 close, so none is presently in the money and each is a cash maturity unless the price recovers.

Upside

The shares trade above the conversion prices and $6.7bn of principal settles in equity that has already been substantially hedged by the capped calls.

Downside

The shares stay below, and $6.7bn falls due in cash from a business that generated $75.3M of operating cash flow in its most recent quarter.

Source: Forms 8-K of October 14, 2025, December 8, 2025 and May 14, 2026; Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026. Filed

D14

Project debt final maturity

Neutral
Timing Dec 31, 2031
Impact Medium
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

The delayed draw term loan and the 5.96% senior notes mature on December 31, 2031, or earlier if the final service fee under the Microsoft contract has been paid in full. The debt is sized and dated to the contract it funds, which is the point of the structure.

Upside

Amortisation tracks contract cash flows and the facility retires itself without a refinancing event.

Downside

A shortened contract leaves debt outstanding against hardware seven years into its life.

Source: Form 8-K, June 1, 2026. Filed

D15

Founder award holding period runs to fiscal 2033

Neutral
Timing Fiscal 2033
Kind Threshold
Impact Low
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

The July 2026 awards vest in four equal annual tranches, each locked for a further two years, so the final tranche cannot be sold until fiscal 2033. Neither Co-Chief Executive receives a further equity grant until fiscal 2031. The structure fixes the timing of any founder selling pressure years in advance, which is unusual enough to be worth knowing.

Upside

No founder supply reaches the market before fiscal 2029 on the first tranche, and the alignment argument the board makes is structurally real.

Downside

A known and dated supply schedule from fiscal 2029 onward, on 18,198,656 units from the 2026 award alone.

Source: Form 8-K, July 1, 2026, Item 5.02; DEFA14A, July 9, 2026. Filed

02Standing conditions

Ongoing and undated, most material first. These take “Why undated” in place of timing confidence.

S1

Delivery and acceptance of Microsoft GPU tranches

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact High
Why undated Acceptance is a contractual process with no published schedule
Provenance Filed

The most important line in the accounts is a negative one. The Form 10-Q states that amounts enter unsatisfied remaining performance obligations only for tranches delivered and accepted, "of which there have been nil as of the reporting date". Until that changes, none of the $9.7bn contract is booked backlog. Acceptance also releases the drawdowns, starts the coverage ratio, and closes the one circumstance in which the parent guarantee bites.

Each tranche is separate, so this resolves in pieces rather than at once, and no schedule of tranche dates is published.

Upside

The first accepted tranche converts a headline into recognized backlog and starts the revenue clock on a five-year term.

Downside

Non-acceptance of a tranche triggers the parent shortfall guarantee and leaves the associated hardware to be remarketed.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, revenue note; Form 8-K, November 3, 2025, Item 1.01. Filed

S2

Coverage covenant and the parent shortfall guarantee

Down
Timing Tested quarterly
Impact High
Why undated Determination dates are quarterly but unpublished
Provenance Filed

The financing subsidiary must maintain a debt service coverage ratio of at least 1.05 to 1.00 at each quarterly determination date, subject to equity cure rights. Mandatory prepayment can be required if the ratio falls below 1.10 to 1.00 for six consecutive months, if the projected ratio for the third and fourth tranches would be below 1.20 to 1.00, or if loan-to-cost exceeds 65%.

Direction is Down because the covenant has no upside case: meeting it is the expected state and only failure is an event. The parent guarantee covers any shortfall attributable to a tranche Microsoft does not accept or terminates, to the extent not satisfied by disposing of or remarketing the hardware, which is the same trigger as the standing condition on tranche acceptance (S1).

Upside

Coverage is met comfortably from contract cash flows and the ring fence works as designed, insulating the parent.

Downside

A missed test forces an equity cure or prepayment at the moment the parent is also funding the 2027 build.

Source: Form 8-K, June 1, 2026, Item 1.01. Filed

S3

Capital raising cadence against $11.9bn of commitments

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact High
Why undated Issuance is opportunistic and announced on completion
Provenance Filed

Commitments were $11,902.5M at March 31, 2026 against $368.8M nine months earlier. In the last ten months the company has raised $1.0bn, $2.3bn and $3.0bn of convertibles, $3.6bn of project debt, and $683.5M through the at-the-market program after March 31, 2026 alone. Investing outflows ran $1,477.1M in the March quarter against $75.3M of operating cash flow.

Every financing to date has been completed on announcement, so the record is one of access rather than of attempts. That is a fact about the past twelve months and not a commitment about the next twelve.

Upside

Customer prepayments at the 45% level stated on July 20, 2026 become normal and the equity component of each megawatt falls sharply.

Downside

A closed window with $11.9bn of commitments outstanding forces issuance at a depressed price or the deferral of committed capacity.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, contractual obligations and subsequent events; company release, July 20, 2026. Filed

S4

Sweetwater under the ERCOT Batch Zero process

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing from Jul 11, 2026; classification SUSPENDED Aug 3, 2026
Impact High
Why undated Batch timing is set by the grid operator, not the issuer
Provenance Filed

Sweetwater 1 at 1,400MW and Sweetwater 2 at 600MW are 44% of the 4,510MW under executed connection documents, and both sit in ERCOT. On July 11, 2026 large load interconnection moved from individual studies to the Batch Zero process, which evaluates requests system-wide and allocates available transmission capacity among studied and committed loads. The previous process ran only through the end of July 10, 2026. It has not run since August 3, 2026. ERCOT suspended that process on August 3, 2026 in market notice M-A080326-01: it will not notify how any large load is classified in the Batch Zero study by August 7, 2026, gives no replacement date, and will seek a good cause exception on the Batch Zero timelines at the Public Utility Commission of Texas open meeting of August 20, 2026. The suspension follows the Governor of Texas directing the Commission and ERCOT, on August 3, 2026, to audit every data center advancing through the interconnection process, with any project failing to comply to be denied connection to the grid. The Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections (D1) carries the dated point.

The company names this exposure in its own risk disclosure, referring to a process that may batch multiple large load interconnection requests. An individual queue rewards being early; a batch process rewards being mature and committed when the batch closes.

Upside

Both sites clear with their full allocation and the 2027 and 2028 build proceeds on the stated capacity.

Downside

Partial allocation cuts the usable megawatts at Sweetwater, and the 1,210MW target for 2027 loses its largest single component.

Source: ERCOT Market Notice M-B062326-01, June 23, 2026; results release, May 7, 2026. Filed

S5

Bitcoin mining wind-down and the transition impairment

Down
Timing Ongoing
Impact Medium
Why undated Redeployment runs site by site with no published schedule
Provenance Filed

All Bitcoin mining at Childress is expected to cease over time as data centers are redeployed. The company estimates additional impairment charges of approximately $520M from the transition and describes that estimate as preliminary and subject to further evaluation, including final project scope, deployment timing and recoverability. Impairment of $140.4M was already taken in the March 2026 quarter and $188.4M across the nine months.

Direction is Down because the accounting consequence is a charge in every scenario; only the size and timing are open. The strategic consequence is treated separately in the growth case.

Upside

The charge lands at or below $520M, redeployment is faster than a greenfield build, and the retrofit route proves cheaper per megawatt.

Downside

The charge exceeds the estimate, and mining revenue is removed before AI Cloud revenue is in place to replace it.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, subsequent events and impairment note. Filed

S6

Nostrum closing

Two-sided
Timing Pending
Impact Medium
Why undated Conditional on regulatory approvals with no stated outside date
Provenance Filed

One of the two acquisitions signed in May 2026 is still unclosed. Ingenostrum, S.L., trading as Nostrum Group, a Spanish data center developer adding 490MW and a gigawatt-plus pipeline, for approximately EUR 165M in a 65% cash and 35% share mix. Purchase price allocation was unfinished at the last report and the share portion is not disclosed as a count. The other of the two completed on August 3, 2026 and is carried as the Mirantis acquisition completes (R17).

Upside

It closes, adding a European platform and 490MW without a cash-dominant outlay.

Downside

A regulatory block or a failed condition removes the European entry, and the cash portion is committed against an asset not received.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, business combinations note; complete submissions index to August 4, 2026, which records no closing filing for it. Filed

S7

Third Circuit appeal in the securities class action

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact Medium
Why undated No briefing schedule has been entered
Provenance Filed

The putative class action in the District of New Jersey was dismissed in full and with prejudice on February 18, 2026, after a hearing on 4 February. Lead plaintiffs filed a notice of appeal on March 13, 2026 and the matter was docketed at the Third Circuit as number 26-1560 on March 20, 2026. The parties are awaiting a briefing schedule. The putative class covers purchasers traceable to the November 2021 initial public offering and purchasers of securities between November 17, 2021 and November 1, 2022.

Upside

Affirmance closes a matter that has run since December 2022 and removes it from the risk disclosure.

Downside

Reversal revives a claim over the listing period, with discovery and management time against a company in the middle of a $12bn build.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, commitments and contingencies; CourtListener federal docket index, searched August 2, 2026. Filed

S8

NVIDIA investment rights vesting on delivery volumes

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact Medium
Why undated Vesting tracks cumulative GPU deliveries, which are not reported
Provenance Filed

The rights vest in tranches on achieving certain volumes of deliveries of up to 600,000 NVIDIA GPUs. Neither the volume thresholds per tranche nor cumulative deliveries to date are disclosed, so a reader cannot tell how much has vested. Exercise brings primary capital at $70.00 against a $43.67 close, so exercise would be a positive price signal as well as a funding event.

Upside

Vesting confirms delivery volumes the company does not otherwise report, and exercise supplies capital at a premium.

Downside

Nothing vests, which would itself indicate deliveries below plan, and the shares are held in a supplier's hands with a six-month restriction on any issued.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, subsequent events. Filed

S9

Founder voting control through two B Class shares

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact Medium
Why undated A structural feature of the constitution, not an event
Provenance Filed

Two B Class shares are outstanding, held by Awassi Capital Holdings 1 Pty Ltd and Awassi Capital Holdings 2 Pty Ltd as trustees. Each carries fifteen votes per ordinary share held by that holder, giving the Co-Founders and Co-Chief Executives approximately 35.4% of voting power at August 15, 2025. Each holder may designate a nominee for election to the board. B Class shares carry no dividend entitlement.

This is the register on which the advisory vote at the 2026 annual general meeting (D5) will be counted, and on which the compensation vote in the 2026 proxy statement (D3) will be decided.

Upside

Founders with locked equity and durable control can commit to a seven-year build without regard to quarterly pressure.

Downside

Ordinary shareholders have limited practical recourse on compensation or strategy, and the constitution's proportional takeover provisions further limit a change of control premium.

Source: Exhibit describing securities registered under Exchange Act Section 12, filed with the Form 10-K, August 28, 2025. Filed

S10

Short interest above a quarter of shares outstanding, against divided coverage

Two-sided
Timing Reported twice monthly
Impact Medium
Why undated A market condition rather than a scheduled event
Provenance Market

93.71 million shares were reported short at the July 15, 2026 settlement, 26.22% of shares outstanding and 30.34% of float. Against that, the issuer's investor relations page names sixteen covering firms, read August 4, 2026, and they do not converge. Fifteen publish a target and they run from $46 to $105, the high 2.28 times the low; the sixteenth declines to publish one. Ratings run from Underweight through Neutral and Hold to Buy, Overweight and Market Outperform. Half the actions predate the 20 July contract announcement, the oldest by ten months. Two data providers publish an aggregate and disagree about it: $81.07 over sixteen contributors with a $41 to $126 range as reported August 2, 2026, and $82.71 over twenty-one with a $46 to $105 range read August 4, 2026. No center is computed here from any of it.

None of that is evidence about the business, and none is treated here as such. Two things follow for timing. A short position of this size means news resolving the delivery question in either direction moves the price by more than the news alone would justify. And a coverage set that disagrees this widely about the same disclosed contracts will re-rate in steps as commissioning dates are confirmed, rather than at one moment.

Upside

Confirmation of tranche acceptance forces covering into an already thin float and pulls the cautious half of the coverage toward the constructive half.

Downside

A delivery slip meets a crowded long side and a published target range whose upper end is more than double the current price.

Source: FINRA semi-monthly short interest, July 15, 2026 settlement; the company's investor relations coverage page, read August 4, 2026, for the sixteen firms; research notes published July 20 to 22, 2026 by Goldman Sachs, Cantor Fitzgerald, Needham, Compass Point and H.C. Wainwright, and named data services read August 4, 2026 for the other eleven firms, all cited for rating, target and date only; two provider aggregates as reported August 2, 2026 and read August 4, 2026. Market

S11

Canada Revenue Agency permanent establishment appeal

Down
Timing Ongoing
Impact Low
Why undated No deadline is in place for the parties to set the remaining dates
Provenance Filed

A Notice of Appeal was filed with the Tax Court of Canada on June 23, 2025 disputing the agency's determination that the company has a permanent establishment in Canada, and the related goods and services tax assessment. The Crown filed a reply on November 3, 2025 and the parties are preparing a timetabling order. The amount at issue is not quantified in the filings read for this document.

Direction is Down because the company is the appellant against an assessment already made: success restores the status quo rather than creating a gain.

Upside

The determination is overturned and the assessment vacated, removing an unquantified contingency from the three British Columbia sites.

Downside

A permanent establishment is confirmed, bringing Canadian tax exposure on historical operations and an ongoing compliance obligation.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, commitments and contingencies. Filed

S12

Discharge of the equipment financing proceedings

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact Low
Why undated Termination requires court approval in two jurisdictions
Provenance Filed

Two subsidiaries defaulted on limited recourse equipment financing in 2022 and 2023, producing receivership and bankruptcy proceedings in the Supreme Court of British Columbia and recognition proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia. A settlement agreement of August 12, 2025 resolves all claims, with a payment to NYDIG stated as $20 million in the most recent report and as exceeding prior accruals by $18.2 million in the annual report, the two figures measuring different things. Dismissal remains subject to court approval, and the annual report states the Canadian bankruptcy termination requires steps expected to take around six months and potentially longer.

Upside

Final discharge closes a matter that has run since 2023 and removes it from the litigation disclosure.

Downside

Approval is withheld or delayed, and a matter recorded as settled stays open on the docket in two jurisdictions.

Source: Form 10-K, August 28, 2025, Item 3; Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026. Filed

03Resolved

Closed items, kept for the record, ordered by resolution date. A resolved catalyst takes the next free R number; it does not carry its old D number over.

R1

United States domestic filer status takes effect

Resolved
Resolved July 1, 2025
Outcome Quarterly reporting, Exchange Act Section 16 filings and proxy rules begin
Provenance Filed

The company ceased to meet the foreign private issuer definition as of the December 31, 2024 determination date, and from July 1, 2025 was required to file on domestic forms. The last Form 6-K was filed June 30, 2025 and the first Form 8-K on July 1, 2025. Accounts moved from International Financial Reporting Standards to United States generally accepted accounting principles, restating three years.

Source: Form 8-K, July 3, 2025, Item 8.01; Form 10-K, August 28, 2025. Filed

R2

Chief Financial Officer transition

Resolved
Resolved September 8, 2025
Outcome Anthony Lewis appointed; Belinda Nucifora departed
Provenance Filed

Anthony Lewis, previously Co-Treasurer of Macquarie Group and the company's Chief Capital Officer since July 1, 2025, was appointed Chief Financial Officer. The change came two months before the largest financing program in the company's history began.

Source: Form 8-K, September 8, 2025, Items 5.02 and 7.01. Filed

R3

$1.0bn zero-coupon convertible notes due 2031

Resolved
Resolved October 14, 2025
Outcome $979.0M net; conversion $85.63; cap $120.18; $56.7M of capped calls
Provenance Filed

Priced off a $60.09 close on October 8, 2025. A zero-coupon note at a 42% conversion premium, sold before the Microsoft contract was announced, and the cheapest capital the company has raised.

Source: Form 8-K, October 14, 2025, Items 1.01, 2.03 and 3.02. Filed

R4

Microsoft $9.7bn contract and the $5.8bn Dell purchase agreement

Resolved
Resolved November 2, 2025
Outcome Signed; delivery through 2026, revenue conditional on acceptance
Provenance Filed

A five-year Partner Statement of Work for dedicated NVIDIA GB300 capacity across Horizon 1 to 4 at Childress, roughly 200MW of critical IT load, with 20% of each tranche paid before delivery and credited against fees after the twenty-fourth month. Matched by a Dell purchase agreement of approximately $5.8bn payable within 30 days of each tranche shipping, unconditionally guaranteed by the parent. The transformative event for this company, and the one whose revenue has yet to begin.

Source: Form 8-K, November 3, 2025, Items 1.01 and 7.01; Partner Statement of Work filed as an exhibit to the Form 10-Q of February 5, 2026. Filed

R5

2025 annual general meeting: constitution amendments and the omnibus plan

Resolved
Resolved November 19, 2025
Outcome All proposals approved
Provenance Filed

Shareholders approved five constitutional amendments, including annual election of all directors, a forum selection provision and updated universal proxy notice provisions; the 2025 Omnibus Incentive Plan under which the July 2026 founder awards were later granted; repurchases pursuant to the Prepaid Forward and Capped Call Transactions; and, on an advisory basis, executive compensation and an annual frequency for that vote.

Source: Form 8-K, November 24, 2025, Items 3.03, 5.02 and 5.07. Filed

R6

Auditor change to KPMG

Resolved
Resolved November 27, 2025
Outcome KPMG appointed; Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton dismissed
Provenance Filed

No disagreements were reported. The only reportable event was the prior auditor's communication of a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting disclosed in the FY2024 Form 20-F, and the FY2024 audit report carried an explanatory paragraph expressing significant doubt about the ability to continue as a going concern. The FY2026 annual report (D2) will be KPMG's first opinion.

Source: Form 8-K, November 28, 2025, Item 4.01, and the letter from Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton filed as Exhibit 16.1. Filed

R7

$2.3bn of 2032 and 2033 convertible notes, and the repurchase of the 2029 and 2030 notes

Resolved
Resolved December 8, 2025
Outcome $2,270.0M net; $1,632.4M used to repurchase earlier notes
Provenance Filed

Two series of $1.15bn each, at 0.25% and 1.00%, both converting at $51.40 off a $41.12 close on December 2, 2025, with capped calls costing $201.0M. Proceeds and a concurrent equity offering repurchased approximately $227.7M principal of the 2030 notes for $608.2M and approximately $316.6M principal of the 2029 notes for $1,024.2M. The premium paid produced the $111.8M debt conversion inducement expense in the December quarter.

Source: Form 8-K, December 8, 2025, Items 1.01, 2.03, 3.02 and 8.01. Filed

R8

Securities class action dismissed with prejudice

Resolved
Resolved February 18, 2026
Outcome Motion to dismiss granted in full; second amended complaint dismissed with prejudice
Provenance Filed

Filed December 14, 2022 in the District of New Jersey and terminated on the federal docket on February 18, 2026, after a hearing on 4 February. The claims were brought under Exchange Act Sections 10(b) and 20(a) and Securities Act Sections 11, 12(a)(2) and 15. Resolved at first instance only: the appeal is carried as the standing condition on the Third Circuit appeal (S7).

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026; CourtListener federal docket index, searched August 2, 2026. Filed

R9

Dell Canada and Dell USA purchase agreements

Resolved
Resolved March 4, 2026
Outcome Approximately $2.3bn and $1.2bn, delivery in phases during the second half of 2026
Provenance Filed

Hardware for the British Columbia and further Childress deployments, payable within 30 days of each tranche shipping and unconditionally guaranteed by the parent. Accompanied by a prospectus supplement the same day.

Source: Form 8-K, March 4, 2026, Items 1.01 and 7.01. Filed

R10

NVIDIA $3.4bn contract, 5GW partnership and investment rights

Resolved
Resolved May 7, 2026
Outcome Contract signed; rights over 30,000,000 shares at $70.00 issued
Provenance Filed

A five-year cloud services contract for air-cooled Blackwell capacity within 60MW at Childress, a partnership covering the 5GW pipeline, and a securities purchase agreement granting rights over 30 million ordinary shares at $70.00 for gross proceeds of up to approximately $2.1bn, vesting on deliveries of up to 600,000 GPUs. A chip supplier taking equity that vests on how much it ships is a different arrangement from a purchase order.

Source: Form 10-Q, May 8, 2026, subsequent events; results release, May 7, 2026. Filed

R11

$3.0bn convertible notes due December 2033

Resolved
Resolved May 14, 2026
Outcome $2.96bn net; conversion $73.07; cap $110.30; $201.3M of capped calls
Provenance Filed

The largest single raise in the company's history, priced off a $55.15 close on May 11, 2026 with the initial purchasers' $400M option exercised in full. A maximum of 54,396,900 shares may be issued on conversion. Note that a second series also carries a 1.00% coupon and a 2033 maturity; they differ in maturity day, conversion price and cap.

Source: Form 8-K, May 14, 2026, Items 1.01, 2.03, 3.02 and 8.01. Filed

R12

Dell Blackwell purchase agreement for Childress

Resolved
Resolved May 26, 2026
Outcome Approximately $1.6bn on post-shipment payment terms
Provenance Filed

Air-cooled Blackwell systems for the NVIDIA contract, inclusive of GPUs, servers, storage, networking, integration and warranties. Announced with a stated run-rate revenue increase from $3.7bn to $4.4bn on commissioning, which is the construct discussed under the year-end measurement catalyst (D7).

Source: Form 8-K, May 26, 2026, Items 1.01 and 7.01. Filed

R13

$3.6bn project financing at the Microsoft subsidiary

Resolved
Resolved May 29, 2026
Outcome $1.5bn delayed draw term loan and $2.1bn of 5.96% senior notes
Provenance Filed

Arranged by Goldman Sachs Bank USA and JPMorgan Chase Bank as joint lead arrangers, secured on the subsidiary's assets including the GPUs and the Microsoft cash flows, with a pledge of 100% of its equity and narrow parent guarantees. Interest rate and power hedges were entered alongside. The agreements themselves are due to be filed as exhibits to the FY2026 annual report (D2).

Source: Form 8-K, June 1, 2026, Items 1.01 and 2.03. Filed

R14

Russell 1000 inclusion

Resolved
Resolved June 26, 2026
Outcome Added effective after the close, following the FTSE Russell reconstitution
Provenance Filed

Announced by the company on June 29, 2026 in a release published on its investor site and never lodged with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is worth noting for anyone sweeping filings alone. Membership follows from inclusion in the Russell 3000. The company does not appear among the additions in the December 2025 Nasdaq-100 reconstitution.

Source: Company release, June 29, 2026, IREN investor site. Filed

R15

Founder equity grants approved and granted

Resolved
Resolved July 1, 2026
Outcome 9,099,328 restricted stock units to each Co-Chief Executive
Provenance Filed

Approved by the board on June 30, 2026 on the unanimous recommendation of the independent directors and granted on or about July 1, 2026, vesting in four equal annual tranches with a two-year holding period on each and no further equity grants until fiscal 2031. The independent chair wrote to shareholders on July 8, 2026 stating that across the 2025 and 2026 awards each Co-Chief Executive has received units representing approximately 3% of the company. Granted, but not yet tested: the advisory vote is carried as a dated catalyst (D3).

Source: Form 8-K, July 1, 2026, Item 5.02; DEFA14A, July 9, 2026. Filed

R16

$2.8bn of further customer contracts and the raised run-rate target

Resolved
Resolved July 20, 2026
Outcome Year-end 2026 target raised from $3.7bn to more than $4bn, ~85% under contract
Provenance Filed

Multi-year cloud services contracts with leading AI developers totalling $2.8bn of contract value, taking the named customer base to Microsoft, NVIDIA, Perplexity, Figure AI, Together AI, Fluidstack, Fireworks AI, Fal AI, Hume AI and one further developer. Recent contracts carry customer prepayments of approximately 45% of associated GPU capital expenditure, and the portfolio's weighted average term is stated as approximately four years. Cash at June 30, 2026 was reported as approximately $7.6bn including $1.7bn restricted, unaudited and preliminary.

Source: Form 8-K, July 20, 2026, Items 2.02 and 9.01. Filed

R17

Mirantis acquisition completes

Resolved
Resolved August 3, 2026
Outcome Closed for approximately 12.6m ordinary shares fixed at signing, plus about $40M of cash, restricted stock units and other consideration
Provenance Filed

The merger agreement of May 4, 2026 among the company, Kube Merger Sub Inc. and Mirantis, Inc. closed on August 3, 2026 and was announced the following morning. A prospectus supplement filed the same day registers the resale of up to 11,981,668 of the shares issued, to satisfy registration rights granted under that agreement; the company sells nothing under it and receives no proceeds from it. Mirantis is described as serving more than 1,500 enterprise customers and as an inaugural partner of the NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready Initiative, and the company states the business has already facilitated several of its announced and prospective AI Cloud contracts. The share issue is roughly 3.5% of the 357,378,674 ordinary shares last filed, at April 30, 2026, and that filed count is unchanged by it.

Source: Form 8-K, August 4, 2026, Items 7.01, 8.01 and 9.01, with Exhibit 5.1 and Exhibit 99.1; Form 424B7 prospectus supplement, August 4, 2026. Filed

04Null categories

Every category reviewed appears as a row, including those that produced catalysts, which read across by title and ID. A category checked and found empty is recorded rather than omitted.

CategoryStatusBasis
EarningsCovered aboveFY2026 results and annual report on Form 10-K (D2), Q1 FY2027 results (D4), Q2 FY2027 results (D8), Q3 FY2027 results (D10).
Product launchesCovered aboveCapacity commissioning stands in for product launch in this business: Horizon 1 to 4 delivery and the 480MW year-end target (D6), Childress air-cooled Blackwell commissioning (D9).
Investor daysNoneNo investor day or capital markets day has been announced. The supporting statement here was wrong and is corrected. This row said that page lists results webcasts only, checked August 2, 2026. The page was read again on August 20, 2026 and carries a downloadable Q3 FY26 results presentation dated May 7, 2026, which was already published when the August 2 check was made. Estimate The status is unchanged: a presentation accompanying a quarterly release is not an investor day, and none has been announced.
Regulatory decisionsCovered aboveSweetwater under the ERCOT Batch Zero process (S4), and the Canada Revenue Agency permanent establishment appeal (S11).
LawsuitsCovered aboveThird Circuit appeal in the securities class action (S7), discharge of the equipment financing proceedings (S12), and the securities class action dismissed with prejudice at first instance (R8). The federal docket index was searched on August 2, 2026, as described in section 9.
Macro eventsNoneNo macro event is carried as a catalyst. Bitcoin price exposure is being removed rather than managed, and the ERCOT change is treated as a named regulatory item rather than as macro. Interest rate exposure on the delayed draw term loan is hedged under the May 2026 arrangements.
Industry conferencesNot establishedNot examined. No conference schedule published by an organizer was checked. Also named in what was not checked.
Management changesCovered aboveChief Financial Officer transition (R2). No change has been announced since; the eight Forms 3 and eighteen Forms 4 in the index to July 1, 2026 were enumerated on August 2, 2026 and disclose no further officer appointment.
BuybacksCovered aboveNot a conventional program, and not None. Shareholders approved repurchases pursuant to the Prepaid Forward Transactions and the Capped Call Transactions at the 2025 annual general meeting (R5), and the capital overlay in section 5 describes both.
DividendsNoneNo dividend has been paid or declared on the ordinary shares. The annual report states any future dividend is at the board's absolute discretion, and B Class shares carry no dividend entitlement. Checked against the complete filing index on August 2, 2026.
Major contractsCovered aboveMicrosoft and Dell (R4), Dell Canada and Dell USA (R9), NVIDIA (R10), Dell Blackwell (R12), and the July contracts (R16), with delivery and acceptance carried as a standing condition (S1).
Index membershipCovered aboveRussell 1000 inclusion (R14). Nasdaq-100 membership is separately recorded below.
Nasdaq-100 membershipNoneThe company does not appear among the six additions in Nasdaq's announcement of the annual reconstitution effective December 22, 2025. Secondary commentary asserting membership was not corroborated by any index publication located on August 2, 2026.
Convertible and other financingsCovered aboveZero-coupon 2031 notes (R3), 2032 and 2033 notes with the earlier repurchase (R7), December 2033 notes (R11), project financing (R13), with the maturity ladder (D13) and the raising cadence (S3).
Mergers and acquisitionsCovered aboveMirantis acquisition completes (R17) and Nostrum closing (S6).
Analyst coverage and short interestCovered aboveShort interest above a quarter of shares outstanding, against divided coverage (S10), which carries the sixteen covering firms the issuer names, read August 4, 2026, and the two provider aggregates alongside.
Stock split or reverse splitNoneNo split or consolidation has been effected or proposed. The 2025 annual general meeting proposals, read in full, contain none.
Credit rating actionsNot establishedNot examined. No rating agency publication was checked, and the filings read do not state whether the senior notes carry a rating. Also named in what was not checked.
Exchange listing deficiencyNoneNo deficiency, compliance or listing determination notice appears anywhere in the complete submissions index of 312 filings to August 4, 2026, searched August 4, 2026.

05Dilution & capital overlay

Sits across every other catalyst rather than beside them.

Almost every catalyst in this file is a capital event wearing a different hat. The build is funded ahead of the revenue it produces, so the sequence is: commit, raise, build, deliver, accept, recognize. A reader tracking dilution should treat the delivery catalysts and the financing catalysts as one chain.

InstrumentSizeEffect and trigger
Ordinary shares outstanding357,378,674Filed cover-page count at April 30, 2026, the most recent on any document lodged with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Filed
At-the-market program15,877,502Issued after March 31, 2026 for approximately $683.5M gross. Overlap with the count above is not disclosed. Continuous and at management's discretion. Filed
Convertible notes$6,745.7MFive series. Maximum 127,062,300 shares on conversion as stated at issue, at conversion prices of $85.63, $51.40, $51.40 and $73.07 against a $43.67 close. None is in the money. Estimate
Capped call transactions$459.0MCash paid across three issues to raise the effective dilution threshold to $120.18, $82.24 and $110.30. Cash out now against dilution avoided later. Estimate
Prepaid forward contractsn/aEntered alongside the 2029 and 2030 notes; partly unwound in connection with the December 2025 equitisation and the May 2026 issue. Filed
NVIDIA investment rights30,000,000At $70.00, up to approximately $2.1bn, vesting on GPU delivery volumes, exercisable to May 7, 2031, six-month restriction on shares issued. Filed
Founder restricted stock units, July 202618,198,656Vesting in four equal annual tranches with a further two-year hold on each. Roughly 5.1% of the 30 April count. Estimate
Acquisition considerationnot statedA fixed number of shares determined at signing for Mirantis, and 35% of EUR 165M for Nostrum. Neither is disclosed as a share count. Filed
Project financing$3,600MNon-dilutive and ring-fenced at the subsidiary, available to May 29, 2027. The alternative to equity for the Microsoft build, and the reason the equity component is smaller than the capital program implies. Filed
Analyst assumption

The dilution that matters over the next twelve months is not the convertibles. All five series sit 40% to 133% above the current price, and the capped calls sit above them again. What actually issues shares in this window is the at-the-market program, which put out roughly 15.9 million shares in a single quarter, and the two acquisitions settling in stock. A reader watching the conversion prices for dilution is watching the wrong instrument until the shares approach $51.40.

06Falsification tests

What would prove this read wrong, stated in advance. Each trigger is settleable from a document; an unquantified threshold is not a test.

#If this happens……this was wrongStatus
1The FY2026 Form 10-K, due August 29, 2026, reports unsatisfied remaining performance obligations at June 30, 2026 of $1.0bn or more.The reading that no Microsoft tranche had been accepted as at the June quarter end, and that booked backlog is still measured in hundreds of millions.Untriggered
2The FY2026 Form 10-K reports transition-related impairment above $520M, the figure the company estimated on May 8, 2026.The reading that the mining write-down is bounded and already disclosed.Untriggered
3Any Form 8-K reports that Microsoft has terminated the Partner Statement of Work, or that agreed delivery dates were not met and a cure period has begun.The base case in full, and the assumption that the ring-fenced financing insulates the parent.Untriggered
4A Form 8-K or Form 10-Q discloses that the debt service coverage ratio at the financing subsidiary fell below 1.05 to 1.00 at a quarterly determination date, or that a mandatory prepayment was triggered.The reading that the covenant package is comfortable while the contract performs.Untriggered
5The FY2026 Form 10-K reports a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting under Item 9A.The reading that the weakness disclosed in the FY2024 Form 20-F is behind the company.Untriggered
6The Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q, expected in early November 2026, reports AI Cloud services revenue for the September 2026 quarter below $100M. The threshold is an analyst judgment, set at roughly three times the $33.6M reported for the March 2026 quarter. EstimateThe reading that the 2026 commissioning ramp is on schedule.Untriggered
7The 2026 proxy statement discloses an aggregate accounting grant-date fair value for the two July 1, 2026 founder awards above $1.0bn. The threshold is an analyst judgment, set near 18,198,656 units at the July 2026 trading range before any holding-period discount. EstimateThe reading that the two-year post-vesting holding restriction materially reduces the reported cost of the awards.Untriggered
8The Third Circuit reverses the dismissal in Network Racing Pty Ltd v. IREN Limited, number 26-1560.The reading that securities litigation over the listing period is effectively closed.Untriggered
9Ordinary shares outstanding on the cover page of the FY2026 Form 10-K exceed 400,000,000. The threshold is an analyst judgment, set at roughly 12% above the 357,378,674 filed at April 30, 2026. EstimateThe reading that the 30 April share count remains a reasonable near-term basis for the valuation multiples.Untriggered
10A Form 10-K or Form 10-Q removes Sweetwater 1 from the stated 2027 capacity, or discloses that a Sweetwater site did not receive an allocation under the ERCOT Batch Zero process.The reading that the 1,210MW target for 2027 is secured on the power side.Untriggered

Every trigger above names an event settleable from a document a reader can obtain: a filing, a docket entry, or a disclosed figure crossing a stated threshold. Where a threshold is an analyst judgment rather than a filed figure, it is tagged and the basis for the number is given in the same cell.

07Catalyst summary

Every ID in one table, gapless within each class. Must match the cards above exactly: same IDs, same count, same order. Links point at title slugs so they survive renumbering.

IDCatalystTimingImpactConfidenceDirection
D1Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnectionsAug 20, 2026HighHighTwo-sided
D2FY2026 results and annual report on Form 10-KBy Aug 29, 2026HighHighTwo-sided
D32026 proxy statement and the advisory vote on the founder equity grants~early Oct 2026MediumMediumTwo-sided
D4Q1 FY2027 results and Form 10-Q, September quarter~Nov 5, 2026HighMediumTwo-sided
D52026 annual general meeting~Nov 19, 2026MediumMediumTwo-sided
D6Horizon 1 to 4 delivery and the 480MW year-end targetDec 31, 2026HighMediumTwo-sided
D7Year-end 2026 annualised run-rate revenue measurementDec 31, 2026HighHighTwo-sided
D8Q2 FY2027 results and Form 10-Q, December quarter~Feb 4, 2027HighMediumTwo-sided
D9Childress air-cooled Blackwell commissioningEarly 2027HighLowTwo-sided
D10Q3 FY2027 results and Form 10-Q, March quarter~May 7, 2027MediumMediumTwo-sided
D11Delayed draw availability period ends at the financing subsidiaryMay 29, 2027HighHighTwo-sided
D12NVIDIA investment rights expiryMay 7, 2031MediumHighNeutral
D13Convertible maturity ladderJul 2031 to Dec 2033HighHighNeutral
D14Project debt final maturityDec 31, 2031MediumHighNeutral
D15Founder award holding period runs to fiscal 2033Fiscal 2033LowHighNeutral
S1Delivery and acceptance of Microsoft GPU tranchesOngoingHighn/aTwo-sided
S2Coverage covenant and the parent shortfall guaranteeTested quarterlyHighn/aDown
S3Capital raising cadence against $11.9bn of commitmentsOngoingHighn/aTwo-sided
S4Sweetwater under the ERCOT Batch Zero processOngoingHighn/aTwo-sided
S5Bitcoin mining wind-down and the transition impairmentOngoingMediumn/aDown
S6Nostrum closingPendingMediumn/aTwo-sided
S7Third Circuit appeal in the securities class actionOngoingMediumn/aTwo-sided
S8NVIDIA investment rights vesting on delivery volumesOngoingMediumn/aTwo-sided
S9Founder voting control through two B Class sharesOngoingMediumn/aTwo-sided
S10Short interest above a quarter of shares outstanding, against divided coverageReported twice monthlyMediumn/aTwo-sided
S11Canada Revenue Agency permanent establishment appealOngoingLown/aDown
S12Discharge of the equipment financing proceedingsOngoingLown/aTwo-sided
R1United States domestic filer status takes effectJul 1, 2025n/an/aResolved
R2Chief Financial Officer transitionSep 8, 2025n/an/aResolved
R3$1.0bn zero-coupon convertible notes due 2031Oct 14, 2025n/an/aResolved
R4Microsoft $9.7bn contract and the $5.8bn Dell purchase agreementNov 2, 2025n/an/aResolved
R52025 annual general meeting: constitution amendments and the omnibus planNov 19, 2025n/an/aResolved
R6Auditor change to KPMGNov 27, 2025n/an/aResolved
R7$2.3bn of 2032 and 2033 convertible notes, and the repurchase of the 2029 and 2030 notesDec 8, 2025n/an/aResolved
R8Securities class action dismissed with prejudiceFeb 18, 2026n/an/aResolved
R9Dell Canada and Dell USA purchase agreementsMar 4, 2026n/an/aResolved
R10NVIDIA $3.4bn contract, 5GW partnership and investment rightsMay 7, 2026n/an/aResolved
R11$3.0bn convertible notes due December 2033May 14, 2026n/an/aResolved
R12Dell Blackwell purchase agreement for ChildressMay 26, 2026n/an/aResolved
R13$3.6bn project financing at the Microsoft subsidiaryMay 29, 2026n/an/aResolved
R14Russell 1000 inclusionJun 26, 2026n/an/aResolved
R15Founder equity grants approved and grantedJul 1, 2026n/an/aResolved
R16$2.8bn of further customer contracts and the raised run-rate targetJul 20, 2026n/an/aResolved
R17Mirantis acquisition completesAug 3, 2026n/an/aResolved

08Methodology & confidence scale

Provenance tags

TagWhat it asserts
FiledStated in an SEC filing or company release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, with the issuer named in the Source line. Used here for an ERCOT market notice and for a company release published on the investor site but not lodged with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
EstimateDerived or inferred here. The arithmetic is shown.
OpenExpected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way.
MarketPrice, volume, float, short interest, published targets and ratings. Stamped with the close or publication date.
PressReported by a named publication that is neither the issuer nor an analyst, cited by outlet and date. Corroborates; never the sole basis for a material claim.
SocialPublicly posted by a named account, cited by handle and date. Asserts that the statement was made, never that it is true. No catalyst here rests on it.

Timing confidence

LevelMeans
HighDate is company-announced, protocol-defined, or statutorily fixed.
MediumDate inferred from filing cadence or a stated deadline window.
LowDate is a judgment call. Could move by a quarter or more.

Two of the High ratings in this file rest on something other than an announcement, and both are worth naming. The annual report deadline is statutory: the cover page checks Large accelerated filer, and that category files within 60 days of the 30 June year end. The year-end run-rate measurement date is fixed by the definition of the metric itself, which measures commissioned GPUs as of December 31, 2026, so the date is certain while the value is entirely open. That is the clearest example in this file of the two axes coming apart.

Confidence rates timing, never outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can be a coin flip; a Low-confidence one can be near-certain in direction.

Impact is independent of confidence. A High-impact, Low-confidence item is the most important kind here: it matters enormously and could land any time. The Childress air-cooled Blackwell commissioning (D9) is this file's example, and the acceptance of Microsoft tranches (S1) is the undated version of the same problem.

09Sources

Primary filings and company releases first, with form type and date.

The filing sweep. Run on 2, August 3 and 4, 2026 against the complete submissions index for Central Index Key 1878848, swept by that identifier rather than by ticker: 312 filings, August 26, 2021 to August 4, 2026, with no supplementary index holding older material back. The index grew between each sweep, so every earlier count is superseded rather than confirmed. The two filings of August 4, 2026 are a Form 8-K under Items 7.01, 8.01 and 9.01 announcing that the Mirantis acquisition closed on 3 August, carrying Australian counsel's validity opinion at Exhibit 5.1 and the closing release at Exhibit 99.1, and a Form 424B7 prospectus supplement registering resale of 11,981,668 shares issued for it. The form string is normalized before the index is filtered: the register filings sit under four spellings, 9 as SCHEDULE 13G, 2 as SC 13G, 7 as SCHEDULE 13G/A and 2 as SC 13G/A, and a filter written to one of them would return a partial view and read as a complete one. All eighteen form families were checked for presence and for absence. No filing of type NT 10-K, NT 10-Q, NT 20-F or NT 40-F has ever been made, and no Form 40-F, S-1 or S-3 either, the last three because the company used the foreign-issuer equivalents and then amended its automatic shelf by post-effective amendment. Exhibit lists were opened rather than form types counted: the Microsoft Partner Statement of Work, the Dell purchase agreements, five indentures, the capped call confirmations and the outgoing auditor's letter all sit in exhibits rather than in the covering form.

The fiscal calendar. The year ends 30 June, confirmed from the submissions index and from the annual report cover page, which reads "For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025". Quarterly periods end 30 September, 31 December and 31 March, filed at lags of 37, 36 and 38 days respectively, and the annual report was filed at a lag of 59 days. Every cadence estimate in this file is built from those four observed lags rather than from a generic assumption.

Full-text search. Run on August 2, 2026 against the underlying index. Searching the current name alone would have produced a false negative for this issuer: the company was Iris Energy Limited until November 2024, and most third-party references still use the former name. Under both names, 59 filings by other registrants named the company between January 2025 and August 2026, almost all as a named competitor or index constituent. The one substantive relationship located is a shared director, Michael Alfred, who has served on this board since 2021 and joined the board of Bakkt Holdings in September 2025.

Court dockets. The CourtListener federal docket index was searched on August 2, 2026 under both names. It confirms the District of New Jersey matter terminated February 18, 2026 and the Third Circuit appeal docketed March 20, 2026. It also returns a matter the filings do not describe, In re Iris Energy Limited Securities Litigation in the Eastern District of New York, 1:24-cv-07046, filed October 7, 2024 and terminated March 19, 2025, whose disposition was not retrieved.

A name collision to know about before it is repeated. The same index returns IRIS ENERGY LIMITED, case 26-90567 in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, petitioned May 29, 2026. It is not this company. It is one of thirty-nine debtors jointly administered under GoldenPeaks Poland Holding Limited, whose other members are named Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, Gamma, Helios, Juno, Leto, Rhea, Sierra and Whiskey Energy. This company renamed in November 2024, signed $3.6bn of financing on the petition date, reported $7.6bn of cash a month later, and filed nothing under Item 1.03 of Form 8-K, which a registrant entering bankruptcy must.

Grid operator data. ERCOT's Large Load Integration page and Market Notice M-B062326-01 of June 23, 2026 were read on August 2, 2026. ERCOT publishes the Batch Zero process documents, forms and attestations, but does not publish a large load interconnection queue naming the requesting entity, so the 750MW at Childress and the 2,000MW at Sweetwater cannot be corroborated site by site against the grid operator and rest on company disclosure.

Registries outside the SEC. The company is an Australian public company and lodges annual financial reports and directors' reports with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Australian Corporations Act 2001, as its own exhibit describing securities registered under Exchange Act Section 12 states. That registry's published company register extract for July 2026 was read in full, 4,418,335 rows, on August 2, 2026: it records IREN LIMITED, Australian Company Number 629 842 799, an Australian public company limited by shares, sub-class unlisted, registered since November 6, 2018, with the current name effective November 28, 2024. The Australian Securities Exchange returns no entity for the code IREN, against three controls that resolve. The research report carries the full account of what that means for a reader.

What was not checked

Categories, date ranges and filing families the sweep did not reach. An unexamined area is a gap, not a clean bill.

10Document log

Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.

August 26, 2026 Latest
15 dated · 12 standing · 17 resolved · May 2026 results presentation read · not repriced
Correction

This calendar described a source page it had checked, and the description was wrong. The investor-days row said the events and presentations page lists results webcasts only. That page carries a downloadable results presentation dated May 7, 2026, which was already on it when the August 2 check was made. The row's status does not change, because a presentation accompanying a quarterly release is not an investor day, and none has been announced. Only the sentence supporting it changes.

The year-end delivery row now carries the company's own basis and an earlier checkpoint. The four liquid-cooled facilities are stated by the company at 300MW gross against the roughly 200MW of critical IT load carried here, which is one estate on two bases rather than a disagreement. The deck also scheduled the first of them for handoff to Microsoft in Q3 CY2026. No catalyst changes state and no date moves: nothing here establishes whether that handoff occurred, so it is recorded as a stated intention from May rather than as a dated item.

The presentation predates this calendar by three months, May 7 against a build of August 13. Nothing here is newer information and nothing is repriced.

August 13, 2026
15 dated · 12 standing · 17 resolved · repriced to Aug 12, 2026 close · $43.67
Correction

A standing condition rested on a process that had stopped. The Sweetwater condition (S4) was timed "Ongoing from Jul 11, 2026" at Impact High, over 2,000MW that is 44% of capacity under executed connection documents. ERCOT suspended Batch Zero classification on August 3, 2026, one day before this file was stamped, in market notice M-A080326-01, following the Governor's directive of the same day to audit every data center advancing through the interconnection process. None of it is on EDGAR, and the sweeps behind this file read filings. The condition now records the suspension and stays standing, because its own reason for being undated, that batch timing is set by the grid operator rather than the issuer, is more true than when it was written, not less.

A dated catalyst is added rather than forcing a date onto the standing condition. The Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections enters at the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026, at Impact High, ahead of the annual report. Every dated item shifted one place, and the in-document cross-references and band ranges were swept against the new numbering in the same build.

Repriced to the 12 August close. $39.75 → $43.67, up 9.86% on the session against the one before, on volume of 48,616,710 shares, about 1.10 times the mean of the nine preceding sessions. The convertible series are restated against the new close: none is in the money, and the cheapest at $51.40 now sits 18% above the market against 29% before.

August 4, 2026
14 dated · 12 standing · 17 resolved · priced off Aug 3, 2026 close

The Mirantis acquisition completed on August 3, 2026 and was announced the next morning, so the standing item covering both May 2026 acquisitions no longer describes two pending deals. It is retitled from Mirantis and Nostrum closings to Nostrum closing (S6) and now covers the Spanish acquisition alone, which the complete index to August 4, 2026 records no closing filing for. The completion is added as Mirantis acquisition completes (R17), resolved August 3, 2026: approximately 12.6 million ordinary shares fixed at signing plus about $40M of cash, restricted stock units and other consideration, with a prospectus supplement of 4 August registering resale of 11,981,668 of those shares by the selling holders. That is roughly 3.5% of the 357,378,674 shares last filed at April 30, 2026, a count the same supplement repeats unchanged.

One identifier was added and none moved. The resolved list is ordered by resolution date and the new item carries the latest, so it takes the last position and every existing R number stays where it was. The Nostrum closing (S6) keeps its identifier, its position in the materiality order being unchanged, but its anchor moves with its title, so the summary table link and the null-table row were both swept to the new one. The resolved count moves 16 → 17 in the masthead and in the summary table; the dated and standing counts are unchanged at fourteen and twelve.

Two filings added, and the index count moves 310 → 312. The submissions index for Central Index Key 1878848 was swept again on August 4, 2026: 312 filings, August 26, 2021 to August 4, 2026, no overflow pages. The additions are the two described above. The sweep paragraph now also records that the twenty register filings sit under four different form strings in the index, so a filter written to one spelling would return a partial view and read as a complete one. The finding that no exchange deficiency notice has ever been filed survives the recount, there being still none across 312 filings.

The coverage set moves from five firms to sixteen in the standing condition on short interest against divided coverage (S10). The issuer's investor relations page, read August 4, 2026, names sixteen covering firms. Fifteen publish a target and they run from $46 to $105; the sixteenth declines to publish one. Half the actions predate the 20 July contract announcement, the oldest by ten months. A second provider aggregate is carried beside the first and the two disagree, $81.07 over sixteen contributors against $82.71 over twenty-one, on ranges that do not nest. No center is computed here from any of it and no catalyst on this calendar rests on their contents. The research report carries the firm-by-firm table, the sales agency relationships the issuer's own filings establish, and the correction to a firm this file never named.

Not repriced, because the session was open. The 4 August Nasdaq session was still running when the figures were read: the exchange's own quote service returned a market status of Open at 13:55 Eastern against a 16:00 close, cumulative volume stood at roughly three fifths of the previous session's total, and two services quoted different prices minutes apart. The basis stays at the 3 August close of $39.75, which the company's own prospectus supplement of 4 August states as the last reported sale price. The horizon band boundaries do not move, for the same reason they did not on the last reprice: they are a convention this document adopted for dividing near from far, not a measurement. The as-of stamp moves 3 August → 4 August because what this document asserts changed today, and no figure in it is computed from the stamp.

Known gaps in this version. No note was read for eleven of the sixteen covering firms and twelve of their disclosure statements are unread. Everything owed by the previous version remains owed: industry conferences and credit rating actions unexamined, insider transaction codes unread, megawatt claims uncorroborated by any grid operator, no check against the Southwest Power Pool or BC Hydro, and the June 2026 quarter still unreported.

August 3, 2026
14 dated · 12 standing · 16 resolved · priced off Aug 3, 2026 close
Correction

This document stated that nothing had been filed since the Form 8-K of July 20, 2026, and struck its filing-record findings against an index of 309. Both were true when written and neither is now. Bank of America Corporation filed a Schedule 13G on August 3, 2026 and the complete index holds 310. The statement reports 21,027,180 ordinary shares, 5.8% of the class, filed under Exchange Act Rule 13d-1(b) and certified as held in the ordinary course without the purpose or effect of changing or influencing control, so it adds a holder and not a contest. Both statements resting on the earlier index size have been restruck against the complete index of 310: the sweep paragraph in the sources section, and the null row recording that no exchange deficiency notice has ever been filed. That second finding survives the recount, there being still none across 310 filings. No catalyst turns on the addition and no identifier moved.

Third-party coverage added to the standing condition on short interest, which is retitled from Short interest above a quarter of shares outstanding to Short interest above a quarter of shares outstanding, against divided coverage (S10) and now carries both sides of the divide. Five firms published on the July 20, 2026 contract announcement within three days: Goldman Sachs and Cantor Fitzgerald on 20 July, Needham and Compass Point on 21 July, H.C. Wainwright on 22 July. Ratings run from Neutral and Hold to Buy and Overweight, targets from none to $105. They are cited for rating, target and date only, no center is computed from them, and no catalyst on this calendar rests on their contents. The research report carries the firm-by-firm table and the disclosed conflicts, which now name the authoring analysts at all five firms and establish four of the five disclosure statements, against two unread earlier. Compass Point's remains unestablished and is named in what was not checked.

The anchor for that item is unchanged, so existing links to it still resolve; the summary table link text and the null-table row were both swept to the new title.

No identifier moved. The fourteen dated catalysts, twelve standing conditions and sixteen resolved items are unchanged in number and in order. No catalyst crossed a band boundary on the one-day change of as-of date.

One filing added, and the file is repriced. The submissions index for Central Index Key 1878848 was swept again on August 3, 2026 and holds 310 filings, August 26, 2021 to August 3, 2026, with no overflow pages behind the current view. The addition is the Bank of America Schedule 13G described in the correction above. The 3 August session has since closed, so the pricing basis moves July 31, 2026 → August 3, 2026 and the close $36.80 → $39.75, a gain of 8.02% on 42.85 million shares against a recent average of 45.57 million. The convertible series are restated against the new close and none is in the money: the cheapest converts at $51.40, which is 29% above the price where it was 40% above the previous basis. The horizon band boundaries do not move. They are a convention this document adopted for dividing near from far, not a measurement, and shifting them to track a reprice would risk reclassifying a catalyst without telling a reader anything new.

Known gaps in this version. One remains from the coverage work: what Compass Point discloses about this issuer, which is named in what was not checked. Everything owed by the previous version remains owed: industry conferences and credit rating actions unexamined, insider transaction codes unread, megawatt claims uncorroborated by any grid operator, no check against the Southwest Power Pool or BC Hydro, and the June 2026 quarter still unreported.

August 2, 2026 (original build)
14 dated · 12 standing · 16 resolved · priced off Jul 31, 2026 close

Built from primary filings. The complete Securities and Exchange Commission submissions index for Central Index Key 1878848, swept by identifier rather than by ticker, 309 filings from August 26, 2021 to July 20, 2026, read on August 2, 2026 with exhibit lists opened. Catalysts are drawn from the Form 10-K of August 28, 2025, the three Forms 10-Q to May 8, 2026, and the Forms 8-K covering the domestic filer transition, the Microsoft and Dell agreements, three convertible issues, the NVIDIA contract and investment rights, the project financing, the founder equity grants and the July 2026 customer contracts.

Beyond the filings. The CourtListener federal docket index under both the current and the former company name; the Australian Securities and Investments Commission company register extract for July 2026, read in full; the Australian Securities Exchange company endpoint with controls; ERCOT's Large Load Integration page and Market Notice M-B062326-01; and the company's investor site for the Russell 1000 release of June 29, 2026, which was never lodged with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Conventions fixed at construction. Ten sections. Dated catalysts banded 0 to 3, 3 to 6 and 6 to 12 months from the as-of date, with a fourth context-only band beyond twelve months. Identifiers gapless within each class, dated by expected date, standing by materiality, resolved by resolution date earliest first. Six fields on every forward-looking card with both outcomes stated. Cadence estimates built from the four observed filing lags rather than from a generic assumption.

Pricing basis. Nasdaq close of July 31, 2026 at $36.80. The as-of stamp is two days later and no session traded in between.

Known gaps in this version. Two null rows read Not established: industry conferences, because no organizer schedule was checked, and credit rating actions, because no agency publication was checked. Insider transaction codes were not read, so no insider catalyst is carried. Megawatt claims at Childress and Sweetwater rest on company disclosure, because ERCOT publishes no entity-named large load queue. Documents lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission were not retrieved, only the company register extract. No check was made against the Southwest Power Pool or BC Hydro. The June 2026 quarter is unreported, so the most recent balance sheet in this file is three months old and the $7.6bn cash figure beside it is preliminary and unaudited.