GLXY

Every leased megawatt has one tenant, and every unleased one needs a grid decision

GLXY · Galaxy Digital Inc. · Catalyst Calendar · as of August 13, 2026

Dated catalysts 4
Standing conditions 5
Resolved 6
Horizon 12 months
Pricing basis Aug 12, 2026 close Market

Basis

  1. Which items are genuinely scheduled, and which are event-driven and could land any day. Galaxy's reporting dates are scheduled; its ERCOT approvals and its leasing announcements are not.
  2. Timing confidence rates the date, never the outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can still be a coin flip.
  3. Estimated dates are cadence-based until the company announces. Treat them as approximate.
  4. The second-quarter results released on August 5, 2026 are already resolved here and appear in section 3. What follows is what has not yet happened.

01Dated catalysts

Banded 0–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 months, earliest first. Numbering is gapless and runs straight through the bands, so a boundary never resets the count. An ID marks position in the current ordering and changes between revisions, so catalysts are named by title.

0–3 monthsD1–D2
3–6 monthsD3
D1

Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections

Two-sided
Timing August 20, 2026
Impact High
Confidence High
Provenance Filed

On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to conduct a comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, and stated that any project failing to comply will be denied connection to the Texas grid. ERCOT suspended the Batch Zero Large Load classification notifications due by August 7, 2026 in market notice M-A080326-01 and will file for a good cause exception on the Batch Zero timelines ahead of the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026, which is the dated point here. No completion deadline for the audit itself has been named.

This is the dated face of the standing condition on Helios III and Helios IV. Two one-gigawatt load requests are progressing through the process now under audit, and Caspian and Selene at a further 1.6 GW are expressly subject to it. Roughly two thirds of the headline 5.7 GW pipeline turns on decisions the company does not make, and those decisions now sit behind a verification exercise with no completion date.

Upside

The Commission grants an exception on a short timetable and determinations resume. An audit that thins a queue the operator has described at more than 438 GW favours requests that can satisfy it, and the approved 1.6 GW at Helios is already past the step the pipeline requests are waiting for.

Downside

Determinations stay paused behind an audit with no deadline, and the distinction this file draws between approved capacity and a load request in a queue widens. The pipeline is read as ambition for longer, which is the reading the equity is trying to escape.

Analyst assumption

Whether the audit reaches these particular requests is not established here. The directive names projects advancing through the interconnection process and these are in it, but which requests the verification covers, and on what test, is not on any record read. The date is the Commission's own; the outcome for this issuer is unknown and is not guessed at.

Source: Office of the Governor of Texas, directive of August 3, 2026; ERCOT market notice M-A080326-01, August 3, 2026. Filed Neither appears in an SEC filing.

D2

Third-quarter 2026 results, and the first full quarter of Phase I rent

Two-sided
Timing ~early November 2026
Impact High
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

This is the most consequential scheduled item on the calendar, because it tests a number the company has already put in public. Galaxy states it expects Helios Phase I to generate quarterly leasing revenue of approximately $80M and a project-level adjusted EBITDA margin above 90 percent beginning in the third quarter of 2026. The second quarter booked $18.9M of leasing revenue on a partial period. The third quarter is the first with all 133 MW in service throughout.

Upside

Leasing revenue lands at or near $80M at the stated margin, and the data center segment is shown to earn what the lease says it earns. That converts a contracted claim into a demonstrated one.

Downside

Revenue undershoots the company's own figure, or the margin does not hold once the segment carries a full quarter of operating cost. Either would put the Phase II and III economics in question by extension.

Analyst assumption

The date is a cadence estimate from the two reporting dates this document can see, April 28, 2026 for the first quarter and August 5, 2026 for the second. Galaxy has not announced a third-quarter date.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

6–12 monthsD4
D3

FY2026 annual report on Form 10-K

Two-sided
Timing ~late February 2027
Impact Medium
Confidence Medium
Provenance Estimate

The second annual report Galaxy Digital Inc. will have filed, and the first covering a full year in which the data center segment produced revenue. It carries the audited treatment of the Helios build, the impairment history on the mining infrastructure conversion, and the internal control assessment.

Upside

A clean opinion with the data center assets and lease accounting set out in full, giving the segment an audited basis for the first time.

Downside

A control deficiency, a restatement of a non-GAAP presentation, or an impairment on capacity not yet leased.

Analyst assumption

Estimated from the one prior annual report under this registrant, filed February 26, 2026 for the 2025 financial year. One observation is a thin basis for a cadence, and the date should be treated as approximate rather than as a filing schedule.

Source: Filing index for CIK 0001859392, searched August 5, 2026. Filed

D4

Helios Phase II first data hall deliveries

Up
Timing ~Q2 2027
Impact High
Confidence Medium
Provenance Filed

Phase II is a 260 MW critical IT expansion. HITT Contracting has been mobilised and on site since April 2026, earthwork is complete and structural foundation work is underway. Galaxy states data hall deliveries are expected to begin in the second quarter of 2027. This is the milestone the $3.5B July note issue was raised to fund, and the gap between the financing and the first revenue it supports is roughly seven quarters.

Upside

Delivery begins on the stated timetable, as Phase I did, and the company's construction record starts to look like a repeatable capability rather than a single success.

Downside

A slip extends the period over which $3.5B of notes accrue interest against no associated revenue. Galaxy names risks related to the timing of construction and its impact on lease revenue among its own risk factors.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

Beyond 12 months, context onlyn/a

No structural item is carried in this band. The CoreWeave leases run 15 years from Phase I rent commencement in the second quarter of 2026, with two five-year extension options, but no dated decision point inside that term is disclosed.

02Standing conditions

Ongoing and undated, most material first. These take “Why undated” in place of timing confidence.

S1

Leasing the 830 MW of approved Helios capacity not under contract

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact High
Why undated Commercial negotiation, no announced timetable
Provenance Filed

Helios has more than 1.6 GW of approved power capacity. The CoreWeave leases account for 800 MW of gross power. Galaxy states it continues to advance discussions with prospective tenants for the additional 830 MW of approved capacity not yet under lease. This is the single largest undated item on the calendar: approved capacity is the part of the pipeline that does not need a grid decision, only a counterparty.

Upside

A second named tenant on approved capacity ends the single-customer concentration in the data center segment and validates the campus for tenants other than the first.

Downside

Approved capacity sits unleased while its development cost is carried, and the concentration risk stays where it is. A long silence would also raise the question of whether the capacity is as marketable as the pipeline figure implies.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

S2

ERCOT determinations on Helios III and Helios IV

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact High
Why undated Third-party regulatory process with no published decision date
Provenance Filed

Two additional one-gigawatt load requests are progressing through the ERCOT interconnection process. Together with the approved 1.6 GW they would represent potential total capacity of 3.6 GW at Helios. The recently acquired Caspian and Selene sites, at roughly 700 MW and 900 MW, are expressly subject to the same process. Roughly two thirds of the headline 5.7 GW pipeline turns on decisions Galaxy does not make.

That process has been stopped. On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to conduct a comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, and stated that any project failing to comply will be denied connection to the Texas grid. ERCOT suspended the Batch Zero Large Load classification notifications due by August 7, 2026 in market notice M-A080326-01, gives no replacement date, and will seek a good cause exception on the Batch Zero timelines at the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026. No completion deadline for the audit has been named. The requests this item turns on are inside the process being audited, and whether the audit reaches these particular requests, and on what test, is not established here.

Upside

Approval of either request converts a queue position into approved capacity, which is the step that made the existing 1.6 GW leasable.

Downside

Refusal, curtailment conditions or an extended study period would strand a large part of the stated pipeline. Galaxy lists any delay in obtaining, or failure to obtain, necessary ERCOT power approvals among its own risk factors.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

S3

The Treasury and Corporate digital asset position

Two-sided
Timing Ongoing
Impact High
Why undated A market position, repriced continuously
Provenance Filed

The segment holds spot positions, derivatives, ETFs, equities, venture and private equity holdings and fund investments, with disclosed exposure to Bitcoin and Solana among others. It produced an adjusted gross loss of $42M in the second quarter and $140M in the first, and it has set the sign of Galaxy's reported net result in each of the last four quarters. It resolves in a direction daily and never closes.

Upside

A recovery in digital asset prices turns the segment positive and reported earnings with it, as happened in the third quarter of 2025 when net income reached $505.1M.

Downside

A further drawdown compounds the operating losses and consumes equity that the data center build is relying on, as in the fourth quarter of 2025 when net loss reached $481.7M.

Source: Form 8-K and financial supplement, August 5, 2026. Filed

S4

Single-tenant concentration in the data center segment

Down
Timing Ongoing
Impact High
Why undated A structural exposure that persists until a second lease is signed
Provenance Filed

Every megawatt of leased critical IT load Galaxy discloses is contracted to CoreWeave: 526 MW across Phases I, II and III on a 15-year base term with two five-year extension options. Galaxy names risks associated with the leasing business, including those associated with counterparties, among its own risk factors.

Upside

A single strong counterparty on a long lease is a real asset, and the contracted term removes re-leasing risk for fifteen years. Concentration and security are the same fact read two ways.

Downside

Any deterioration at the tenant transmits directly to the whole segment, with no other lessee to absorb it. There is no diversification within the leased book to fall back on.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

S5

Class B exchange into Class A

Neutral
Timing Ongoing
Impact Medium
Why undated Holder-driven, exercisable at the holder's election
Provenance Filed

196,596,698 convertible Class B shares were outstanding at June 30, 2026 against 194,798,949 Class A shares. The Class B tracks limited partnership interests in Galaxy Digital Holdings LP and is exchangeable into Class A. The economic interest already exists and is already consolidated, so exchange transfers ownership between classes rather than creating it.

Upside

Exchange increases the listed float and can improve index eligibility and liquidity in the traded class.

Downside

Exchange followed by sale puts stock into the market. It also doubles the denominator a reader meets, and per-share comparisons drawn across different sources will disagree without either being wrong.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

03Resolved

Closed items, kept for the record, ordered by resolution date. A resolved catalyst takes the next free R number; it does not carry its old D number over.

R1

Reorganization and United States listing

Resolved
Resolved May 13, 2025
Outcome Completed; Class A common stock listed on Nasdaq under GLXY
Provenance Filed
Upside

Access to the United States market, index eligibility and a domestic filer's disclosure regime on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K.

Downside

The filing history under the new registrant begins in 2025. The predecessor filed no periodic reports with the Commission, so the comparable United States record is short.

Galaxy Digital Inc., Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd and Galaxy Digital Holdings LP completed a series of transactions reorganizing the corporate structure, moving the group from a Cayman company quoted in Toronto into a Delaware corporation. The predecessor's filings stay under its own Central Index Key, 0001405064, and do not join this issuer's index.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026, and the filing indexes for CIK 0001859392 and CIK 0001405064, searched August 5, 2026. Filed

R2

May 2025 Class A offering

Resolved
Resolved May 30, 2025
Outcome 31,600,000 Class A shares sold; thirteen underwriters
Provenance Filed
Upside

Equity raised into the listing, with a large syndicate distributing the stock and establishing United States institutional ownership.

Downside

Twelve of the sixteen firms now covering Galaxy were in that syndicate, so most published research on the company comes from houses that sold its shares.

Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and Morgan Stanley acted as representatives. The underwriters also held an option over a further 4,740,000 shares from the founder rather than from the company. The syndicate composition is what makes the coverage shape in the research report a finding rather than a coincidence.

Source: Form 424B4, May 30, 2025. Filed

R3

Helios Phase I full delivery

Resolved
Resolved June 30, 2026
Outcome 200 MW gross, 133 MW critical IT load, in service and on schedule
Provenance Filed
Upside

Delivered on schedule, which is the first evidence that Galaxy can build what it contracts. Rent commencement scaled with delivered capacity through the quarter.

Downside

Only $18.9M of leasing revenue was booked on the partial period, so the economics remain a company expectation rather than a demonstrated quarterly result until the third quarter.

Delivery completes the first of three CoreWeave lease phases. What it leaves behind is a testable claim: approximately $80M of quarterly leasing revenue at a project-level adjusted EBITDA margin above 90 percent from the third quarter of 2026.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

R4

$3.5 billion senior secured notes due 2031

Resolved
Resolved July 28, 2026
Outcome Private offering completed at Galaxy Helios Data Centers II LLC
Provenance Filed
Upside

Phase II construction is funded without issuing equity, at a project subsidiary rather than at the parent, and the market took $3.5B against a build with a contracted tenant.

Downside

Interest accrues from closing while the first Phase II data hall deliveries are not expected until the second quarter of 2027. Notes payable were already $3,262.8M at 30 June against total equity of $2,720.1M.

Proceeds fund construction of Helios I Phase II. The indenture was filed as an exhibit to the 8-K of July 28, 2026 and was not read for this document, so nothing is stated here about recourse, covenants or security.

Source: Form 8-K, July 28, 2026, and Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

R5

Second-quarter 2026 results

Resolved
Resolved August 5, 2026
Outcome Net loss $85.3M; adjusted gross profit $43.4M; first Data Centers revenue
Provenance Filed
Upside

Adjusted gross profit returned to positive from $(87.9)M in the first quarter, Digital Assets adjusted gross profit rose 34 percent on the quarter, and the data center segment produced revenue for the first time.

Downside

A third consecutive quarterly net loss, driven by the Treasury and Corporate position, with $181.3M of digital asset impairment in the quarter.

Released before the open on August 5, 2026 with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Reported as a Form 8-K under Items 2.02, 7.01 and 9.01, with the press release, a quarterly update presentation and a financial supplement as exhibits. The corresponding Form 10-Q was filed on August 10, 2026 and appears below as a resolved item, where it is recorded as reconciling exactly to this release.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026. Filed

R6

Second-quarter Form 10-Q

Resolved
Resolved August 10, 2026
Outcome Reconciles exactly to the release; filed four days early
Provenance Filed

Filed on August 10, 2026, four days inside the 14 August statutory deadline for a non-accelerated filer reporting a June 30 quarter end. This card asked whether the quarterly report would reconcile to the August 5 release, and it does, to the thousand.

LineThe August 5 releaseThe Form 10-Q
Net loss$(85.3M)$(85,316) thousand
Total assets$10,844.0M$10,843,981 thousand
Data centre operating revenue$5.8M$5.8M

None of the downside limb arrived. No figure moved against the release, no control deficiency is disclosed, and the filing was early rather than late. Galaxy has still filed no notification of late filing in its history.

The detail the release did not carry is where the news is. The outstanding commitment for construction of improvements at Helios stands at $1,489.2M at June 30, 2026, against $529.8M at December 31, 2025, so it has nearly tripled in six months. Property and equipment rose to $2,218.2M from $1,423.1M over the same period. Digital assets held fell to $3.5 billion from $4.5 billion at the year end, with net gains on digital assets of $237.3M in the quarter.

Residual risk: a commitment is not a spend, and $1.5B of contracted construction against a balance sheet holding $3.5B of digital assets is the shape of the funding question the Helios Phase II deliveries card (D4) turns on. The 10-Q does not schedule the commitment, so when it falls due is not established here.

Source: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed August 10, 2026, Notes 4, 12 and 15; Form 8-K and financial supplement, August 5, 2026. Filed

04Null categories

Every category reviewed appears as a row, including those that produced catalysts, which read across by title and ID. A category checked and found empty is recorded rather than omitted.

CategoryStatusBasis
EarningsCovered aboveSecond-quarter Form 10-Q (R6), third-quarter 2026 results (D2), FY2026 annual report (D3), second-quarter 2026 results (R5).
Product launchesCovered aboveThe OTC prediction markets offering, the Galaxy Fintech Fund and the State Street Galaxy Onchain Liquidity Sweep Fund were launched in the quarter, reported in the 8-K of August 5, 2026. None carries a disclosed revenue figure or a dated follow-on decision, so they inform the Digital Assets position (S3) rather than standing as separate dated items.
Investor daysNoneGalaxy's investor relations events page, read August 5, 2026, lists the second-quarter earnings call, the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference of June 4, 2026 and the first-quarter earnings call. No investor day is scheduled or past.
Regulatory decisionsCovered aboveERCOT determinations on Helios III and Helios IV (S2).
LawsuitsNot establishedCourt dockets were not searched, on CourtListener, PACER or any state portal. Also named in what was not checked.
Macro eventsNot establishedNo central bank or macro calendar was checked. Digital asset prices drive the Treasury and Corporate position (S3), but no scheduled macro event is dated here. Also named in what was not checked.
Industry conferencesNoneGalaxy's own events page, read August 5, 2026, lists no upcoming conference appearance. The most recent was the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference on June 4, 2026, which is past.
Management changesNoneNo change is pending. Two Item 5.02 reports appear in the index in the last twelve months, an 8-K of July 13, 2026 and one of July 29, 2025, both of which report completed appointments or departures rather than scheduled transitions. Index for CIK 0001859392, searched August 5, 2026.
Major contractsCovered aboveThe CoreWeave leases across Phases I, II and III underlie Helios Phase I full delivery (R3) and Helios Phase II first data hall deliveries (D4), and the single-tenant concentration condition (S4). The BNY agreement is reported in the 8-K of August 5, 2026 without a disclosed term or value, so it carries no dated decision point.
BuybacksNoneNo repurchase program is disclosed. A self-tender on Form SC TO-I and its amendment appear in the index, connected to the reorganization rather than to an open-market program. Index for CIK 0001859392, searched August 5, 2026.
DividendsNoneNo common dividend has been declared or paid, and none appears across the 258 filings the index holds for CIK 0001859392, searched August 5, 2026.
Financings and capital structureCovered aboveThe $3.5B senior secured notes (R4) and the May 2025 Class A offering (R2); Class B exchange (S5). Added beyond the standard categories because a capital structure is not a major contract and this issuer's financings are the largest events on its record.
Mergers and acquisitionsCovered aboveThe reorganization and United States listing (R1). Three Texas site acquisitions, Merlin, Caspian and Selene, are reported in the 8-K of August 5, 2026 as asset purchases; they feed the interconnection condition (S2) rather than standing separately. Added beyond the standard categories for an issuer of this size.
Analyst coverage and short interestNot establishedCoverage itself is set out in the research report, from the issuer's own page read August 5, 2026. No forthcoming initiation, transfer or rating event is dated, and no exchange short interest report was retrieved. Added beyond the standard categories for an issuer of this size. Also named in what was not checked.
Credit rating actionsNot establishedNo rating agency action was sought or read, though the July 2026 secured notes are rated instruments by their nature. Added beyond the standard categories because this issuer now has rated debt. Also named in what was not checked.
Index membershipNot establishedNo index provider announcement was checked. Membership is decided by a provider rather than by the company, and the Class B exchange condition (S5) bears on float-based eligibility. Added beyond the standard categories for an issuer of this size. Also named in what was not checked.
Segment reportingCovered aboveGalaxy reports three segments, and the first full quarter of Data Centers rent (D2) is the test of the newest. Added beyond the standard categories because segment disclosure is where this issuer's two businesses become separable.

05Dilution & capital overlay

Sits across every other catalyst rather than beside them.

Galaxy's capital overlay has three distinct parts, and only one of them is dilution in the ordinary sense.

Debt is doing the funding. Notes payable stood at $3,262.8M at June 30, 2026, $437.0M current and $2,825.8M non-current. On 28 July a wholly owned subsidiary added $3.5B of senior secured notes due 2031. Pro forma, borrowings approach $6.8B against total equity of $2,720.1M. Notes interest expense in the second quarter was $25.1M against $14.2M a year earlier, and that line will rise again once the July issue carries a full quarter. Every dated data center catalyst on this calendar is being financed this way rather than by issuing shares.

The share count can nearly double without a new issue. 196,596,698 convertible Class B shares sit against 194,798,949 Class A shares. Exchange creates no new economic interest, because the underlying partnership interest is already consolidated, but it does move stock into the listed class. This is the item most likely to be misread as dilution when it is a transfer between classes (S5).

Shelf capacity is open and uncapped. An automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3ASR was filed on May 8, 2026, together with a resale registration statement on Form S-3. A well-known seasoned issuer's automatic shelf states no dollar ceiling, so no capacity figure can be given here. Twenty-one prospectuses under Rule 424 have been filed since May 2025, the most recent on May 21, 2026.

Analyst assumption

The reading taken here is that the next material capital event is more likely to be debt than equity, because the July issue was debt, because the data center assets support secured project financing, and because the shares trade below the two established analyst targets. That is an inference from the pattern of financings and not something Galaxy has stated. An equity issue off the open shelf would need no advance notice.

Source: Form 8-K, August 5, 2026; Form 8-K, July 28, 2026; and the filing index for CIK 0001859392, searched August 5, 2026. Filed

06Falsification tests

What would prove this read wrong, stated in advance. Each trigger is settleable from a document; an unquantified threshold is not a test.

#If this happens……this was wrongStatus
1Galaxy's third-quarter 2026 results report Data Centers leasing revenue below $60M, against the approximately $80M the company states it expects from that quarter.The reading that Phase I economics are contracted and therefore predictable. It would mean the lease does not convert to revenue at the stated rate even with all 133 MW in service.Untriggered
2Galaxy's third-quarter 2026 results report a project-level adjusted EBITDA margin for Phase I below 80 percent, against the above 90 percent stated for that quarter.The reading that delivered capacity is high-margin contracted rent rather than an operating business with material cost.Untriggered
3No lease covering any part of the 830 MW of approved but uncontracted Helios capacity is announced in a Form 8-K on or before June 30, 2027.The reading that approved capacity is readily leasable and that the single-tenant concentration (S4) is temporary.Untriggered
4A Form 8-K or periodic report discloses that first data hall deliveries at Helios Phase II are expected after September 30, 2027.The reading that the $3.5B July note issue is funding a build on a known timetable, and the seven-quarter gap between financing and revenue it implies.Untriggered
5Galaxy files a notification of late filing on Form NT 10-Q or NT 10-K.The claim in the research report that no such filing appears anywhere in the 258 filings the index holds for this registrant, and with it the reading that reporting has been consistently timely.Untriggered
6A periodic report or Form 8-K discloses Class A shares outstanding above 250,000,000.The assumption that Class B exchange is the main route by which the listed count grows, rather than new issuance off the open shelf.Untriggered

07Catalyst summary

Every ID in one table, gapless within each class. Must match the cards above exactly: same IDs, same count, same order. Links point at title slugs so they survive renumbering.

IDCatalystTimingImpactConfidenceDirection
D1Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnectionsAug 20, 2026HighHighTwo-sided
D2Third-quarter 2026 results, and the first full quarter of Phase I rent~early Nov 2026HighMediumTwo-sided
D3FY2026 annual report on Form 10-K~late Feb 2027MediumMediumTwo-sided
D4Helios Phase II first data hall deliveries~Q2 2027HighMediumUp
S1Leasing the 830 MW of approved Helios capacity not under contractOngoingHighn/aTwo-sided
S2ERCOT determinations on Helios III and Helios IVOngoingHighn/aTwo-sided
S3The Treasury and Corporate digital asset positionOngoingHighn/aTwo-sided
S4Single-tenant concentration in the data center segmentOngoingHighn/aDown
S5Class B exchange into Class AOngoingMediumn/aNeutral
R1Reorganization and United States listingMay 13, 2025n/an/aResolved
R2May 2025 Class A offeringMay 30, 2025n/an/aResolved
R3Helios Phase I full deliveryJun 30, 2026n/an/aResolved
R4$3.5 billion senior secured notes due 2031Jul 28, 2026n/an/aResolved
R5Second-quarter 2026 resultsAug 5, 2026n/an/aResolved
R6Second-quarter Form 10-QAug 10, 2026Mediumn/aResolved

08Methodology & confidence scale

Provenance tags

TagWhat it asserts
FiledStated in an SEC filing or company release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, with the issuer named in the Source line.
EstimateDerived or inferred here. The arithmetic is shown.
OpenExpected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way.
MarketPrice, volume, float, published targets and ratings. Stamped with the close or publication date.
PressReported by a named publication that is neither the issuer nor an analyst, cited by outlet and date. Corroborates; never the sole basis for a material claim.
SocialPublicly posted by a named account, cited by handle and date. Asserts that the statement was made, never that it is true.

Timing confidence

LevelMeans
HighDate is company-announced, protocol-defined, or statutorily fixed.
MediumDate inferred from filing cadence or a stated deadline window.
LowDate is a judgment call. Could move by a quarter or more.

Confidence rates timing, never outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can be a coin flip; a Low-confidence one can be near-certain in direction.

Impact is independent of confidence. A High-impact, Low-confidence item is the most important kind here: it matters enormously and could land any time.

09Sources

Primary filings and company releases first, with form type and date.

SourceDateWhat it supports here
Form 8-K, Items 2.02, 7.01 and 9.01, with press release, quarterly update presentation and financial supplementAug 5, 2026Second-quarter results, segment figures, Helios capacity and delivery, the pipeline, balance sheet and share counts
Form 8-K, Items 1.01, 2.03 and 9.01Jul 28, 2026The $3.5B senior secured notes due 2031
Form 424B4May 30, 2025The May 2025 offering and its thirteen-member underwriting syndicate
SEC filing index for CIK 0001859392, all form families enumerated before filteringsearched Aug 5, 2026258 filings, May 5, 2021 to August 5, 2026, no overflow file. Absence claims, register direction, and reporting cadence
SEC filing index for CIK 0001405064, Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltdsearched Aug 5, 202662 filings, none periodic. Establishes that the predecessor's record does not join this issuer's index
Galaxy investor relations analyst coverage and events pagesread Aug 5, 2026The sixteen-firm coverage set, and the absence of a scheduled investor day or conference
Nasdaq daily record for GLXY, 253 sessionsAug 1, 2025 to Aug 4, 2026The trading calendar behind the coverage table in the research report. Not the pricing basis, which is the August 12, 2026 close

What was not checked

An unexamined area is a gap, not a clean bill. The following were not reached.

10Document log

Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.

August 13, 2026 Latest
4 dated · 5 standing · 6 resolved · repriced to Aug 12, 2026 close · $21.08
Correction

A standing condition rested on a process that had been ordered audited nine days earlier. The condition on Helios III and Helios IV (S2) is timed Ongoing at Impact High and turns on two one-gigawatt load requests progressing through the ERCOT interconnection process, with Caspian and Selene expressly subject to the same process and roughly two thirds of the headline pipeline depending on it. On August 3, 2026 the Governor of Texas ordered that process audited, with non-compliant projects to be denied grid connection, and ERCOT suspended Batch Zero classification the same day in market notice M-A080326-01. None of it is on EDGAR. The condition now records the suspension and stays standing, because its reason for being undated, a third-party process with no published decision date, is more true than when it was written.

A dated catalyst is added rather than forcing a date onto the standing condition. The Texas audit of ERCOT data center interconnections enters at the Commission's open meeting of August 20, 2026, at Impact High. The three dated items each shifted one place, and the in-document cross-references and band ranges were swept in the same build. The 6 to 12 month band named a range whose upper end was a dated item that did not exist; it now names the single item it actually holds, the Helios Phase II first data hall deliveries.

Repriced to the 12 August close. $22.14 → $21.08, up 4.72% on the session against the one before, on volume of 6,059,119 shares, about 0.78 times the mean of the nine preceding sessions.

August 12, 2026
3 dated · 5 standing · 6 resolved · priced off Aug 4, 2026 close

The second-quarter Form 10-Q was filed on August 10, 2026, four days inside the statutory deadline. Carried as second-quarter Form 10-Q (R6). This card asked one question, whether the quarterly report would reconcile to the August 5 release, and it reconciles to the thousand: net loss $(85,316) thousand against the $(85.3M) released, total assets $10,843,981 thousand against $10,844.0M, data centre operating revenue $5.8M against $5.8M. No figure moved, no control deficiency is disclosed, and the filing was early.

The commitment behind Helios has nearly tripled, and neither document carried it. The outstanding commitment for construction of improvements stands at $1,489.2M at June 30, 2026 against $529.8M at December 31, 2025. Property and equipment rose to $2,218.2M from $1,423.1M. Digital assets held fell to $3.5bn from $4.5bn, with net gains of $237.3M in the quarter. A commitment is not a spend and the 10-Q does not schedule it.

No figure carried in these documents moves, because the Q2 numbers were taken from the release and the report confirms them. The price was not restruck: the pricing basis stays at the August 4, 2026 close. The filing sweep reaches August 10, 2026 across 270 filings, against 259 at the previous entry; the eleven added are the 10-Q, nine Forms 4 and one Schedule 13G/A.

August 5, 2026
4 dated · 5 standing · 5 resolved · priced off Aug 4, 2026 close

Original build. Built from Galaxy's second-quarter 2026 results, released on the morning of August 5, 2026 as a Form 8-K under Items 2.02, 7.01 and 9.01 with the press release, a quarterly update presentation and a financial supplement as exhibits; from the 8-K of July 28, 2026 reporting the $3.5B senior secured notes; from the 424B4 of May 30, 2025 for the underwriting syndicate; from the complete filing index for Central Index Key 0001859392, 258 filings from May 5, 2021 to August 5, 2026 with no overflow file; from the separate index of the predecessor entity Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd, CIK 0001405064; and from Galaxy's own investor relations coverage and events pages read on August 5, 2026.

Pricing basis fixed at the August 4, 2026 close of $22.14. The document is stamped 5 August because the 5 August session had not settled when the figures were taken: Nasdaq reported the market pre-open with 4 August as the previous trading date, so the previous close remains the basis.

Conventions fixed at construction: dated catalysts are banded 0 to 3, 3 to 6 and 6 to 12 months from the as-of date, and those boundaries are a choice about where this document divides near from far rather than a measurement; resolved items are ordered by the date they completed, earliest first, so the reorganization of May 13, 2025 leads and the second-quarter results of August 5, 2026 close the list; and every catalyst is named by title in prose with its identifier in parentheses, because identifiers mark position in today's ordering and will move.

The null table carries seventeen rows rather than eleven. Six were added because this issuer is larger than the categories were shaped for: financings and capital structure, mergers and acquisitions, analyst coverage and short interest, credit rating actions, index membership, and segment reporting. Two of the standard eleven were also read differently at this size: buybacks, where no repurchase program exists but a reorganization-related self-tender appears in the index, and product launches, where three fund and platform launches in the quarter carry no dated decision point and so inform a standing condition rather than standing as catalysts.

Known gaps at this version: court dockets, ERCOT queue records, SEDAR+ and Canadian exchange bulletins, macro calendars, credit rating actions, index membership and short interest were not reached; the indenture for the July notes was not read; and the second-quarter Form 10-Q had not been filed, so every figure comes from the unaudited 8-K and its exhibits. No item is deferred as a defect in the analysis.