BKKT
BKKT · Bakkt, Inc. · Equity Research Report · as of August 17, 2026
Key figures, each tagged by provenance. Retained revenue is revenue net of crypto costs and execution, clearing and brokerage fees.
| Metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $7.56 | Market Aug 4, 2026 close, up 2.86% on the day |
| Market capitalization | $340.7M | Estimate 45,069,458 shares at the $7.56 close, Aug 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $6.75–$49.79 | Market Intraday over the 251 sessions to the Aug 4, 2026 close, unchanged from the 31 July measurement |
| Revenue (Q1 2026) | $243.6M | Filed 10-Q, Q1 2026 |
| Retained revenue (Q1 2026) | $1.6M | Estimate 0.67% of revenue, being revenue less crypto costs and execution fees, 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Net loss (Q1 2026) | ($11.7M) | Filed 10-Q, Q1 2026 |
| Cash and restricted cash | $82.6M | Filed 10-Q, Mar 31, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | None | Filed 10-Q, Mar 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | ~23.6% of float | Market ~6.3M shares on a 26.73M float, Jul 31, 2026 |
Bakkt sells infrastructure, not consumer products. It does not compete for retail accounts against Coinbase or Robinhood. It supplies the licensed, regulated back end that other firms integrate in order to offer crypto trading or stablecoin payments to their own users under their own brand.
The company was founded in 2018 as a subsidiary of Intercontinental Exchange and went public via a SPAC merger in October 2021. That heritage is the source of its principal asset: the licensing stack. Its subsidiary holds a New York BitLicense, money transmitter licenses across US states where required, and is registered with FinCEN as a money services business.
Since the January 2026 rebrand from Bakkt Holdings, Inc. to Bakkt, Inc., management organizes the business around three pillars:
Bakkt Global is a holding company activity rather than a service anyone buys. The Strategic Asset Value KPI reports the mark on an investment portfolio, not operating performance. Two of the three pillars are therefore pre-revenue or non-operating.
Recent filings carry extensive language about an updated investment policy and related treasury strategy, including risk factors on digital asset price volatility, fair-value accounting of holdings, exposure to the corporate alternative minimum tax on unrealized gains, and competition by other Bitcoin treasury companies. Board appointments align: Mike Alfred, a director of IREN and Eaglebrook Advisors, and Lyn Alden, a Swan Bitcoin director and general partner at Ego Death Capital, joined in autumn 2025.
Public commentary from one of Bakkt's own directors describes the structure as deliberate: Bitcoin held not on the US parent's balance sheet but on the balance sheets of overseas listed entities that Bakkt indirectly controls or holds stakes in, namely Bitcoin Japan and prospectively Transchem.
If accurate, that reframes Bakkt Global from a geographic diversification program into an indirect offshore vehicle for Bitcoin exposure, which would mean the Strategic Asset Value KPI carries more crypto beta than a portfolio of foreign financial stakes implies. This structure has not been confirmed from the 10-Q, and the source is a secondary account of a director's remarks rather than a company disclosure. It is a hypothesis to verify at the 10 August report, not an established fact.
Q2 2026, against that assumption. Bakkt retained $0.8M on $168.8M of Total Transacting Volume, being $170.1M of revenue less $169.3M of crypto costs and execution, clearing and brokerage fees. That is an implied take rate of about 0.47%, against the 0.68% assumed above on the Q1 print. Holding the Q2 rate against an annualised controllable cost base of roughly $82M, being the quarter’s $20.5M of operating expenses excluding those pass-through costs, breakeven would require roughly $17B of annual volume rather than the $10.9B derived above. Volume fell from $241M in Q1 and first-half volume was $410.0M, against the year-end estimate of approximately $2.5B. Filed
Bakkt reports as a single operating segment. The three-engine framing is a management narrative, not a reporting structure with separate audited financials behind it.
Sources: 10-Q Q1 2026, Notes 1, 2 and 6; press releases January 12, 2026, May 11, 2026 and June 4, 2026; Q1 2026 earnings call.
Gross revenue is almost entirely pass-through. The retained figure is the one that carries analytical weight.
When a partner's customer buys $1,000 of Bitcoin through the platform, Bakkt books close to the full $1,000 as revenue and books the cost of acquiring that Bitcoin as crypto costs. It retains the spread. The accounting is conventional; the effect on the top line is not.
| Q1 2026, simplified | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto services revenue, gross | $243.6M | Filed 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Less crypto costs | ($240.0M) | Filed 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Less execution, clearing and brokerage fees | ($2.0M) | Filed 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Retained revenue | $1.6M | Estimate the two lines above subtracted from revenue |
| Less controllable operating expenses | ($18.6M) | Filed 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Operating loss, continuing operations | ($16.9M) | Filed 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Net loss | ($11.7M) | Filed 10-Q Q1 2026 |
| Adjusted EBITDA, company-defined | ($13.7M) | Filed Q1 2026 results release |
The two deducted lines total $242.0M, which is 99.3% of gross revenue. Retained revenue was $3.4M in Q1 2025 against $1,065.8M of gross revenue, so the retained line fell 52% year over year while the gross line fell 77%.
Within gross revenue the split is stark: transaction revenue was $243.4M and service revenue, covering subscription and software, was $0.197M. A company describing itself as infrastructure software currently earns almost nothing from recurring software fees. Revenue from outside the United States was $31.5M in the quarter.
Bakkt retained $1.6M on $241M of Total Transacting Volume, an implied take rate of about 0.68%. Holding that take rate, breakeven against the current annualised controllable cost base of roughly $74M would require about $10.9B of annual volume, roughly eleven times the current annualised run rate.
Reading the $2.5B year-end figure generously as an annualised run rate implies roughly $17M of retained revenue against a $74M cost base. The company has published no path to profitability, and none is asserted here. The arithmetic states the size of the gap.
Sources: 10-Q Q1 2026, consolidated statements of operations and Note 4; Q1 2026 results release and earnings call, May 11, 2026. Take rate and breakeven figures are analyst calculations from those disclosures.
As of mid-2026 the sector has split, and the split governs how the backdrop reads for a transaction-fee business.
Float is contracting. Total stablecoin market capitalization fell to roughly $310B by late July 2026, down more than $10B from its May peak, the largest monthly decline since the Terra collapse in May 2022. One contributing mechanism is the GENIUS Act prohibition on issuers paying interest on payment stablecoins, which has moved capital toward yield-bearing alternatives.
Throughput is rising. Over the same period, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reached a record $1.79 trillion in June 2026, up 63% month over month.
The second figure is the one that bears on Bakkt, which earns a spread on transactions rather than a yield on float. A contracting float with rising throughput is a more favorable configuration for a transaction-fee business than the reverse, though it also describes a sector losing capital even as its rails are used harder.
Estimates of real-economy stablecoin payment volume put 2025 between $350B and $550B, growing around 60% year over year, with business-to-business settlement roughly 60% of the total.
The GENIUS Act established a federal framework for payment stablecoins, and the European MiCA regime is in hard enforcement. For a licensed operator this is a tailwind: regulated counterparties can transact without legal ambiguity. The same clarity invites banks in. Commentary through 2026 has flagged that large depository institutions are the best-positioned stablecoin issuers and that non-bank fintechs face consolidation pressure.
Management cites a $44 trillion global payments market. Independent sizing of the stablecoin cross-border opportunity is smaller: one estimate puts the base addressable market at $17.9 trillion.
Addressable market size does not indicate capture. Retained revenue last quarter was $0.8M. The distance between a $44 trillion market and $0.8M retained is where the risk sits, and market-size figures in company materials are context rather than evidence.
Sources: Deluair, April 2026; Tazapay 2026 stablecoin guide citing BCG and Allium Labs; Forbes and FXC Intelligence, March 30, 2026; ABA Banking Journal, July 2026; Wolters Kluwer, July 2026; Bakkt press release, April 30, 2026.
Named peers on comparable metrics. The category is regulated crypto and stablecoin infrastructure sold business to business.
| Competitor | Position | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Zero Hash | Closest direct analogue: white-label trading, payments and custody via API. Reported 50+ US state licenses and clients including Interactive Brokers and the Morgan Stanley E*TRADE platform. | Private |
| Bridge | Branded stablecoin issuance with reserve-yield sharing, distributed through Stripe. Acquired for $1.1B in 2024. | Stripe-owned |
| Paxos | Deepest multi-jurisdiction regulatory stack for white-label issuance. | Private |
| Circle | Issuer of USDC; broadest distribution in stablecoins. | Public |
| Fireblocks, Anchorage, BitGo | Institutional custody and settlement credentials. | Private / public |
| Coinbase | Prime and infrastructure offerings, with a far larger balance sheet. | Public |
| BVNK, Mural Pay, Ripple | Cross-border payment corridors and B2B settlement. | Private / private |
Sources: Stablecoin Insider competitive reviews, June to July 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 1; Q1 2026 earnings call; Google Finance company profile, July 2026.
The reported history requires adjustment, because the business has been repeatedly reshaped. The sequence, with dates, comes first.
| Date | Event | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | Webull and Bank of America both decline to renew | Webull was 74% of crypto services revenue; the stock fell 27% in a day |
| Mar 21, 2025 | Akshay Naheta appointed co-CEO | Strategy pivots toward stablecoin payments |
| May 15, 2025 | Bakkt Trust sold to ICE | $1.5M cash; $2.3M loss recognized |
| Jun 2025 | $25M convertible debenture issued to Yorkville | $17.5M later converted to shares; $7.5M redeemed |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Loyalty business sold | Reported as discontinued operations; Bakkt later sued the buyer |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Up-C structure collapsed | Single share class; $26.9M tax receivable settlement expense |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Renamed Bakkt, Inc. | n/a |
| Apr 30, 2026 | DTR acquisition closes | 11.3M shares issued to the CEO and other holders |
| Metric | FY 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP revenue | $2,335.2M | $1,065.8M | $243.6M |
| Change year over year | −32.1% | n/a | −77.1% |
| Retained revenue | n/d | $3.4M | $1.6M |
| Net loss, continuing operations | ($97.7M) | +$19.4M | ($11.7M) |
| EPS, basic and diluted | n/d | +$1.18 | ($0.41) |
| Operating cash flow | n/d | ($101.3M) | ($12.1M) |
Two cautions on that table. Q1 2025 positive net income was not operating profit: it was driven by a $32.2M non-cash gain on revaluation of warrant liabilities. The FY2025 net loss was inflated by one-off items, principally the $26.9M tax receivable settlement and share-based compensation booked in Q4.
The Q1 2026 10-Q carries a full going concern discussion, and management concluded that cash will be sufficient to fund operations for twelve months from the filing date. That is not a substantial doubt statement.
The operative caveat is that management's analysis excludes activation of new clients or products not yet live on the platform. The twelve-month conclusion therefore rests on the existing business plus the cash raised in early 2026, not on the growth plan.
Sources: 10-Q Q1 2026, balance sheet, statements of operations and cash flows, Notes 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9; FY2025 results release, March 16, 2026; Form 8-K, March 17, 2025.
Shares, warrants, the ATM, the shelf, the resale registration, and the ownership register.
| Date | Shares outstanding | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 13.69M | Class A and Class V combined |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 25.52M | Debenture conversions, Up-C collapse, tax receivable settlement shares |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 30.71M | $21.5M ATM plus $48.1M registered direct |
| Apr 2026 | +2.48M | February pre-funded warrants exercised in full, 2,475,201 shares issued |
| May 5, 2026 | 44.61M | 11.32M shares issued for DTR |
That is roughly 226% growth in share count over about seventeen months. A 1-for-25 reverse split in April 2024 accounts for the shape of the historical price series.
The ICE Class 1 and Class 2 Warrants, 230,680 of each, carry an exercise price of $25.50 and expire in September 2029. Against a share price near $7 they are far out of the money.
Because the DTR anti-dilution ratchet is triggered by warrant exercise, a ratchet that depends on those exercises is correspondingly unlikely to operate. Treating warrant-driven dilution and the ratchet it would trigger as probable near-term events overstates both.
On May 12, 2026 Bakkt filed a registration statement covering the resale of up to 21,010,640 shares of Class A common stock. The company's own risk factors state that, measured against shares outstanding at April 30, 2026, this represents approximately 43.9% of total outstanding voting securities.
| Selling stockholder | Maximum shares registered | Relationship |
|---|---|---|
| Akshay Naheta | 8,926,320 | CEO, President, director |
| Intercontinental Exchange Holdings | 8,380,362 | Former majority owner |
| Clear Haven STAR Trust | 1,498,750 | DTR holder |
| Lotus Grove Trust | 782,780 | Trust for Naheta family members |
| Others: DTR holders, Cohen, Loeffler, Ishag | 1,422,428 | Various |
The registration was declared effective on May 28, 2026, with its prospectus filed the previous day, so the shares have been freely saleable for eleven weeks rather than merely registered. There is no lock-up on the DTR consideration shares. The Registration Rights Agreement obligated Bakkt to file a resale registration within five business days of the DTR closing. Registration is permission rather than prediction: the selling stockholders may sell all, some or none, and the CEO's sales are further constrained by blackout periods given his access to material non-public information. The legal impediment is removed, and the filing itself describes the result as a public market overhang.
The register turned over almost completely between mid-2025 and mid-2026, and the two largest positions in it now are an insider's and a fund's rather than the former parent's.
| Reporting person | Shares | % of class | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akshay Sudhir Naheta, co-chief executive | 11,138,989 | 22.3% | Filed Schedule 13D/A no. 3, May 4, 2026, event date Apr 30, 2026. Sole voting and dispositive power over all of it |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and ICE Holdings | 8,380,362 | 19.8% | Filed Schedule 13D/A no. 13, May 4, 2026, event date Apr 30, 2026. Shared power only; includes 461,360 replacement warrant shares ICE cannot vote unless it exercises |
| Alyeska Investment Group, L.P., Alyeska Fund GP and Anand Parekh | 3,053,153 | 9.99% | Filed Schedule 13G, May 15, 2026, event date Mar 31, 2026, under Rule 13d-1(b) |
| BlackRock, Inc. | 2,452,659 | 5.5% | Filed Schedule 13G, Jul 27, 2026, event date Jun 30, 2026, under Rule 13d-1(b) |
BlackRock holds sole voting power over 2,419,374 and sole dispositive power over the full position, and its statement certifies the stake is held passively, in the ordinary course, and not to influence control.
The largest holder is an officer and director, and he reports on Schedule 13D rather than 13G, which is the activist form. The position was built in four steps: 1,592,015 shares at 6.3% on an event date of October 31, 2025, 3,199,732 at 11.9% on November 14, 2025, the same holding at 11.6% on January 11, 2026 as the count grew, and 11,138,989 at 22.3% on April 30, 2026, the closing of the DTR share purchase.
The 30 April step was not a purchase. He acquired 7,927,831 consideration shares in exchange for his equity interests in DTR, with no cash paid, and the statement records that the number remains subject to adjustment under the agreement's top-up consideration provisions, so it can rise further without any market transaction. Shares he holds as nominee and custodian for other former DTR holders are excluded and their beneficial ownership disclaimed.
What the statement says about purpose is the material part. It reserves the right to engage with management, the board and other securityholders and to encourage or seek to cause the company to explore extraordinary corporate transactions, naming among them a merger, reorganization or take-private that could result in the delisting or deregistration of the Class A common stock, sales or acquisitions of assets, changes to capitalization or dividend policy, changes to the certificate of incorporation or bylaws, and changes in management or the composition of the board. It then states that he holds no current plans or proposals under Items 4(a) to (j) other than as may arise in his capacity as a director or officer, and that he does not expect to amend the statement to disclose developments arising in that capacity.
That last sentence is the one to read twice. A 22.3% holder who is also co-chief executive has told the market in advance that plans formed in his executive capacity will not necessarily produce an amendment to this statement. The take-private language is boilerplate reservation of rights and appears on most Schedule 13D filings; what is not boilerplate is that the person reserving those rights already controls the largest block, sits on the board, runs the company, and acquired the block for no cash in a transaction he was on the other side of. Nothing here says a take-private is planned. It says the register would not have to warn anyone first.
ICE has gone from majority owner to a fifth of the class without selling a share. Its successive statements report 54.2% on June 27, 2025, 36.0% on July 28, 2025, 33.6% on October 16, 2025, 32.3% on January 11, 2026, 27.0% on March 2, 2026 and 19.8% on April 30, 2026. The share count rose across that span, 7,914,472 to 8,380,362; the percentage fell because the denominator more than doubled.
Two figures circulate for the same holding and they differ on two axes rather than one. The 8,380,362 shares in the Schedule 13D/A include 461,360 replacement warrant shares; net of those, ICE holds 7,919,002 shares outright, which is the difference exactly. The 19.8% is struck against 41,878,871 shares, being 30,562,096 outstanding at March 11, 2026 per the Form 10-K plus 11,316,775 issued on April 30, 2026 per the Form 8-K. Both figures are correct on their own basis, and this report carries the filed one because it is the only basis stated in a document.
The BlackRock position of 2,452,659 shares equates to 5.5% only against a denominator of roughly 44.6 million shares. That corroborates the 10-Q cover series over the resale prospectus figure of 47,866,956, and is why this report uses the cover count rather than the prospectus one. BlackRock struck its percentage on July 27, 2026 against the count standing then; the cover count now used is the Q2 figure of 45,069,458 as of August 5, 2026. The discrepancy is not fully explained.
Director Michael Alfred acquired 865,000 shares of Class A common stock in open-market purchases through Alpine Fox LP, a limited partnership he controls: 365,000 shares on May 15, 2026 at a weighted-average $8.34, 220,000 on 18 May at $8.20, 180,000 on 9 June at $7.71 and 100,000 on 10 June at $7.83. That is roughly $7.0M committed at prices between $7.52 and $8.93, leaving Alpine Fox holding 905,000 shares. He holds a further 28,476 shares directly, subject to unvested restricted stock units.
Set against it, every other disclosed insider transaction in the period is a withholding-scale sale: 3,789, 4,684 and 2,352 shares by the General Counsel, CFO and COO on April 29, 2026; 1,562, 1,907 and 1,562 shares by the same three on 29 June; and 539, 657 and 94 shares on 15 July.
This is a single director rather than a board, and Alfred is the director most closely associated with the digital asset treasury posture described in business model above, so his purchase is partly a view on that strategy rather than on the operating business alone. He also served on the Special Committee that approved the DTR acquisition. The purchases are nonetheless the only open-market buying above withholding scale in the record, made after the Q1 results and after the resale registration was filed, at weighted-average prices between $7.71 and $8.34, above the current $7.56.
Because ICE, the CEO, DTR holders and other affiliates hold most of the register, the tradable float is only about 26.73 million shares, roughly 60% of shares outstanding.
| Supply and demand structure | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Shares outstanding | 45.07M | Filed 10-Q cover, Q2 2026, as of Aug 5, 2026 |
| Public float | ~26.73M | Market Jul 31, 2026 |
| Shares sold short | ~6.3M | Market Jul 31, 2026 |
| Short interest as share of float | ~23.6% | Market Jul 31, 2026 |
| Change in short interest since Jul 2025 | +216.8% | Market Jul 31, 2026 |
| Days to cover | ~6.5 | Market Jul 31, 2026 |
| Shares registered for insider resale | 21.01M | Filed Form S-3, May 12, 2026 |
Roughly a quarter of the tradable float is sold short and the position has more than tripled in a year. Two consequences follow and both are real. A thin float with heavy short interest and 6.5 days to cover means favorable news can force covering into limited supply, and unfavourable news meets few natural buyers, which is consistent with a beta near 5.9 and a 52-week range from $6.75 to $49.79. It is also a large standing position against the company: a 216.8% increase over twelve months describes how a body of capital reads the same filings. The 10 August results land into this structure.
In May 2026, three weeks after closing DTR, Bakkt acquired Gyzer Inc., a digital asset payments business, from Daniel Ishag, its own Chief Commercial Officer and Gyzer's sole stockholder. Consideration was 94,595 shares plus warrants over 250,000 shares, exercisable for roughly $2.5M in aggregate.
The transaction is small in dollar terms. It matters as a pattern: within roughly six weeks Bakkt acquired companies from two of its own senior executives. Unlike DTR, no independent special committee process is described in the filings reviewed for Gyzer.
On DTR itself: a Special Committee of independent directors reviewed and approved the transaction, the CEO recused himself, and shareholders voted. Per the Form 8-K/A filed July 16, 2026, DTR reported no revenue for FY2025, a net loss of €8.4M, total assets of €5.1M and equity of €2.7M, and generated €41,909 of revenue in Q1 2026. At the $8.65 VWAP used in the deal, the 11.3 million shares were worth roughly $98M. Whether that price is defensible turns on the value of unproven technology, which cannot be verified externally.
The March 2025 inducement grant to Naheta, made outside the shareholder-approved plan under NYSE Listed Company Manual Rule 303A.08, comprised 1,607,717 performance stock units and 11,426 RSUs with a grant-date value of roughly $15M. Vesting is tied to share price hurdles, the first of which was $18.66. The stock closed at $7.56 on August 4, 2026, about 59% below that hurdle, and the performance period runs to March 21, 2028. Two readings hold simultaneously: the alignment is real, since the award pays only if the shares regain the $18.66 hurdle; and the same fact removes near-term incentive to sell into the resale registration. The 2026 proxy also discloses $1.5M of severance to former Co-CEO Andrew Main and $250,000 of special committee compensation for the 2025 strategic review.
Sources: 10-Q Q1 2026, cover page, Note 9 and Note 11; Form 8-K/A, July 16, 2026; Form S-3, May 12, 2026; press releases January 20, 2026, February 27, 2026 and April 30, 2026; ICE Schedule 13D/A, May 2026; BlackRock Schedule 13G, July 27, 2026; 2026 proxy statement.
Multiples with their basis and pricing date. No target price is derived here.
| Approach | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Price / sales on GAAP revenue | ~0.35× | $340.7M over annualised Q1 GAAP revenue of $974.4M. Uninformative: revenue is 99% pass-through. |
| Price / earnings | n/m | Loss-making. |
| EV / retained revenue, annualised | ~45× | The multiple that carries information. |
| Price / book, equity $354.4M at June 30 | ~0.96× | Approximate; book is post-DTR and includes $156.7M of goodwill. |
| Cash per share | ~$1.12 | $50.7M over 45.07M shares, 15% of the share price. |
Enterprise value: $340.7M market capitalization, being 45,069,458 shares at the $7.56 close of August 4, 2026, less $50.7M cash and no debt, approximately $290.0M. Against annualised retained revenue of about $6.4M, being Q1 multiplied by four, that is roughly 45 times retained revenue. Three caveats attach: the retained-revenue denominator is still the first quarter while the balance sheet and the count are not, so the multiple will move again when it is advanced; the $12.0M warrant liability is excluded as non-cash; and annualising a single quarter of a volatile business is crude.
The count used here is 45,069,458, stated on the cover of the Q2 10-Q as of August 5, 2026, one day after the pricing date, and reached by the same rule this report already applied: the cover count of the latest 10-Q. The share count is also disputed. The Q1 10-Q cover page reported 44,612,329 shares outstanding as of early May 2026. The resale prospectus states 47,866,956 shares outstanding as of April 30, 2026, 3.25 million higher on an earlier date. The February pre-funded warrants over 2,475,201 shares were previously offered here as the likely explanation. The Q1 10-Q discloses that they were exercised in full in April 2026 and the shares issued, so they sit inside both counts and account for none of the gap. The 3.25 million difference is unreconciled, and the earlier explanation is withdrawn rather than reduced. Market data providers use the 10-Q figure and so does this report. On the prospectus figure, market capitalization would instead be about $362M.
Management reported roughly $76M of Strategic Asset Value at Q1-end. It does not reconcile straightforwardly to the balance sheet:
These figures are not necessarily inconsistent: they measure different things at different dates on different bases. Strategic Asset Value is a company-defined, non-GAAP construct and is materially larger than the GAAP carrying values, in the sense that $76M exceeds the $10.9M equity method figure by roughly seven times. A sum-of-the-parts valuation should use the audited numbers and treat the KPI as management commentary.
On India, Bakkt paid roughly $9.4M for 25% of the Transchem subscription. The remaining 75%, roughly $28M, is payable only if it exercises within an 18-month window, and does not appear as a liability today.
Price at publication is the close on the last trading day before the action, which is what the firm could see when it struck the figure. Where an action carries a date on which no session traded, the last session that did still supplies the close.
| Firm | Analyst | Date | Rating | Target | Price at publication | Basis and disclosed conflict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Benchmark Company | Mark Palmer | May 13, 2026 | Buy | $19, cut from $22 | $8.87 | Market The close on May 12, 2026, the last session before the action. The conflict is filed rather than merely reported: the firm is one of seven sales agents named in the Sales Agreement of January 16, 2026 through which up to $300M of stock may be sold at the market, disclosed in the quarterly report. |
| Clear Street | Brian Dobson | Mar 20, 2026 | Buy, maintained | $21, cut from $39 | $9.00 | Market Reported by the service carrying it, read August 4, 2026, and not read from the note. Price at publication is the close on March 19, 2026, the last session before the action. No more recent action by the firm confirms it, so the target's currency is not established. The conflict is filed rather than merely reported: the firm is one of seven sales agents named in the Sales Agreement of January 16, 2026 through which up to $300M of stock may be sold at the market, disclosed in the quarterly report of May 11, 2026. |
| Weiss Ratings | n/a | Jul 2, 2026 | Sell, raised from E+ to D− | none | $8.42 | Market The close on July 1, 2026, the last session before the action. A quantitative ratings service rather than broker research: the grade is model-derived, carries no target and names no analyst. Reported for what it is. What it discloses about this issuer specifically is not established. |
These are the published views of the sources named, reported as market data. This report issues no rating and derives no target of its own, and the Benchmark target is not used to anchor any conclusion above. No center is computed from them, and none could honestly be: two rows, one of which publishes a letter grade rather than a target.
Every covering house the issuer acknowledges is paid by the issuer to sell its stock. Bakkt names two firms as following it, The Benchmark Company and Clear Street, on the coverage list published on its own investor relations site and read on August 4, 2026. Both are sales agents on the company's at-the-market program: two of the seven named in the Sales Agreement of January 16, 2026, through which up to $300M of common stock may be sold at the market, disclosed in the quarterly report of May 11, 2026. The claim rests on that list and that filing, both dated, so it describes the coverage set as the issuer stated it on that day rather than the set as it may later stand. Weiss Ratings is not part of it and its absence from the list is not evidence: a model-derived service was never going to appear on an issuer's coverage page.
The services are behind the file on the one target that matters. One still shows Benchmark at $22 dated March 18, 2026 and builds an average price target of $22.00 on it, having not recorded the 13 May cut to $19. Its average therefore rests on a superseded figure, which is the stale-aggregator pattern in its most concrete form: nothing on the page reveals it. The services also disagree about how many firms cover the stock at all, one giving two analysts over twelve months and another eight.
Two things about it are worth stating, because a target is a claim about a moment and this one is now thirteen weeks old.
The firm publishing it is also a distribution agent for the issuer. The Benchmark Company, LLC is one of seven sales agents named in the Sales Agreement dated January 16, 2026 through which Bakkt may sell up to $300M of common stock at the market. Filed A firm that earns fees placing an issuer's stock is not a disinterested source of a target on that stock. This is disclosed in the quarterly report rather than hidden, and it does not make the target wrong; it does mean the target is not independent research, and this report treats it accordingly.
It predates the events most likely to bear on it. The target was struck on May 13, 2026, one day after the resale registration was filed and fifteen days before it was declared effective, so it precedes the 44% overhang becoming live. It also predates the June director purchases, the further build in short interest to about 23.6% of float, and the fall in the shares from the $8.87 at publication to $7.56. At the current price a $19 target implies about 151% upside, against about 114% when it was set.
Analyzing what a target assumes is in scope here; adopting it is not. No part of the valuation above rests on it.
Sources: 10-Q Q1 2026, balance sheet and Note 6; Q1 2026 earnings call, May 11, 2026; press release June 4, 2026; Morningstar and Robinhood quote data, July 23 to 25, 2026; Investing.com, May 2026. Multiples are analyst calculations.
Separating what is contracted from what is stated.
Every item in the second list is a partnership announcement, a memorandum, or a launch date. None is a signed revenue contract of disclosed size.
Sources: press releases February 17, 2026, April 30, 2026, May 11, 2026 and June 4, 2026; Q1 2026 earnings call; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 9.
Severity-ranked, most severe first.
$0.8M retained per quarter against $20.5M of controllable costs. Closing that gap requires more than a twentyfold increase in volume at the current take rate.
Webull was 74% of crypto services revenue and did not renew. No disclosure shows that today's revenue is more diversified.
Share count up 226% in seventeen months, an active ATM program, and a registration statement covering the resale of 21,010,640 shares, roughly 44% of the company, by holders including the CEO and ICE. Operating progress can be real while per-share value erodes.
At $7.56 the shares sit 12% above the 52-week low of $6.75, 14% below the $8.75 February placement price and 13% below the $8.65 VWAP used to value DTR. The company's own disclosure names a decline in market capitalization as a goodwill impairment trigger, so that condition is live rather than hypothetical, and ATM usage at these levels is more dilutive per dollar raised.
Two of three growth engines produce no revenue. Bakkt Agent has never shipped.
The CEO sold his own company to the company he runs for roughly 31.5% of it. Three weeks later Bakkt acquired Gyzer from its Chief Commercial Officer. An independent committee process was followed for DTR; no equivalent process is described for Gyzer in the filings reviewed.
Only about 26.73M of 45.07M shares are freely tradable, the float measured at July 31, 2026 and the count at August 5, and roughly 23.6% of that float is sold short, up 216.8% in a year at about 6.5 days to cover. With one to two analysts, a beta near 5.9 and a 52-week range of $6.75 to $49.79, price can detach from fundamentals in both directions.
Three independent registered public accounting firms in three years: Ernst & Young for FY2023, KPMG for FY2024 and Grant Thornton for FY2025, alongside late-filing notices for two consecutive annual reports.
Filings reference an updated investment policy and treasury strategy with risk factors covering digital asset price volatility, fair-value accounting and corporate alternative minimum tax on unrealized gains. The size and location of any holdings are not clear from the filings reviewed.
Filed April 2025 over disclosure of the Webull and Bank of America dependencies. Such cases typically take years and settle more often than not.
Roughly $14.1M of notes, advances and escrow is tied to that counterparty at June 30, 2026, on the components the Q2 filing identifies separately.
Zero Hash, Bridge and Stripe, Paxos, Circle and Coinbase are all better capitalized, and post-GENIUS Act banks are entering.
Roughly $28M may be required to exercise the Transchem warrants within 18 months, over a third of current cash.
Digital assets are held via BitGo, Coinbase Custody and Fireblocks Trust. Bakkt bears counterparty risk it does not control.
Late-filing notices were filed for both the 2024 and 2025 annual reports.
Transaction volumes rise and fall with crypto market activity, which Bakkt does not control.
Sources: 10-Q Q1 2026, forward-looking statements and Notes 5, 6, 9 and 16; class action reporting, April 2025; Simply Wall St filing calendar, March 2026; press release June 4, 2026.
Each case with its preconditions. These are illustrative reasoning, not forecasts, and carry no probabilities.
Partner integrations slip, the Agent launch is delayed past 2026, and banks and better-capitalized infrastructure providers take the institutional mandates. Retained revenue stagnates while costs stay elevated by integration and professional fees. Cash falls toward the point where the $28M India commitment and the ATM become forced rather than opportunistic. DTR goodwill is tested and written down. Dilution accelerates at lower prices and the class action settles for a sum that matters against $50.7M of cash.
Requires: only that the pipeline converts more slowly than management expects.
Agent ships late or lands quietly. Total Transacting Volume grows off a small base but retained revenue stays in the single-digit millions per quarter. The company burns $10M to $15M a quarter, returns to the equity market within twelve to eighteen months, and share count keeps climbing. The equity trades as a volatile option on the stablecoin theme rather than on its own results, and the strategic investments supply mark-to-market noise.
Requires: only that current trends continue.
Agent launches on schedule in Q3 2026 and converts the institutional pipeline. Volume compounds past the $2.5B marker as partner integrations activate, and the owned DTR stack lifts the take rate above 0.68% by capturing payment economics rather than brokerage spread alone. The Japan and India positions appreciate and are monetised. A licensed, debt-free operator below a $350M capitalization becomes an acquisition target for a bank or payments incumbent.
Requires: four things, being a successful launch, a step change in volume, an improved take rate, and no destructive dilution meanwhile.
The asymmetry is deliberate. The bull case requires several independent things to go right in sequence. The base and bear cases require nothing unusual to happen.
Can Bakkt grow transacting volume roughly tenfold, or materially raise the 0.68% take rate, before dilution and cash burn consume the equity value that exists today?
Every other debate is downstream of that. The licenses, the CEO, the stablecoin market size, the Japan stake and the rebrand matter insofar as they move that ratio. If retained revenue is still near $0.8M a quarter when the Q4 2026 results land, the strategy has not yet worked, whatever partnerships were announced meanwhile.
Bakkt is an early-stage business inside a formerly larger company's shell. Stripped of the loyalty division, the trust company and its dominant client, what remains is a licensed crypto and stablecoin infrastructure provider that retained $0.8M of revenue last quarter against $20.5M of controllable costs, holding $50.7M of cash with no long-term debt.
Improved over twelve months: the balance sheet is clean, the capital structure is simplified to a single share class, the strategy is coherent, and the chosen market is heavily used, with stablecoin transaction volume at record levels even as float contracts.
Worse or unresolved: the operating business is a fraction of its former size, retained revenue fell 52% year over year, holders have been diluted 226% in seventeen months, the two most recent acquisitions were both from sitting executives, a resale registration covering roughly 44% of the company is on file, the shares trade 12% above their 52-week low with a live goodwill impairment trigger, roughly a quarter of a thin float is sold short, and the growth case rests on products that have not launched and agreements that are memoranda.
The headline figure at every data provider, being roughly $975M of annualised revenue at a price to sales ratio under 0.35 times, points in the opposite direction from the underlying economics. The pass-through cost line is what reconciles them.
Categories with nothing to report. Status reads Covered above, None where a named source was checked and found empty, or Not established where the category was not examined. A category nobody looked at is a gap, not an absence.
| Category | Status | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Signed contracts of disclosed value | None | Press releases through June 4, 2026 reviewed. The Nexo partnership and the Zoth memorandum carry no disclosed contract value, terms or take rate. |
| Long-term debt and refinancing | None | 10-Q Q1 2026 balance sheet. The ICE facility was terminated in July 2025 and the convertible debenture is retired. |
| Analyst coverage | Covered above | Valuation, section 08: Benchmark, one to two analysts total. |
| Price target derived by this report | None | No target is derived. The Benchmark target is reported as market data only. |
| Dividends | None | Q2 2026 10-Q: no dividend is declared or paid, and the company carries an accumulated deficit of $836.0M at June 30, 2026. Market data at the August 4, 2026 close shows a trailing and forward dividend yield of zero. |
| Share buybacks | None | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 11: no repurchase program is authorised or disclosed. Every equity action described is an issuance, and share count rose about 226% over seventeen months. |
| FY2025 retained revenue, EPS and operating cash flow | Not established | Shown as n/d in financial performance, section 06. Not derived for this document. |
| Segment reporting below the consolidated level | None | 10-Q Q1 2026: the company reports as a single operating segment, so no segment split exists to report. |
| Gyzer special committee process | Not established | No such process is described in the filings reviewed. Absence of description is not evidence of absence. |
Figures are priced off the August 4, 2026 close of $7.56, which the exchange stamped at 16:00 Eastern and which two data services report identically. Volume of 886,823 shares ran at about 1.07 times the mean of the nine preceding sessions, so the volume reading and the venue agree that the session had ended. Every figure in a table Basis column and in the masthead strip carries a provenance tag, defined below.
All figures are drawn from Bakkt SEC filings and press releases, supplemented by third-party market data where named. Calculations described as analyst calculations are arithmetic performed on disclosed figures.
The four tags used throughout this document, and what each asserts.
| Tag | What it asserts |
|---|---|
| Filed | Stated in an SEC filing or company release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, with the issuer named in the source line: a court docket, a central bank statement, a conference schedule published by its organizer. |
| Estimate | Derived or inferred here. The arithmetic is shown. |
| Open | Expected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way. |
| Market | Price, volume, float, short interest, and published targets and ratings, stamped with the close or publication date. A third party's characterisation of someone else's facts is market data and is tagged here rather than as filed, however authoritative the third party. A third party's target or rating is attributed to the firm that issued it and is never adopted here. |
Enterprise value appears in valuation, section 08, and not in the masthead strip. It pairs a March 31, 2026 cash balance with a August 4, 2026 market capitalization, so it is struck across two dates. It is shown where its caveat can travel with it.
Defects identified but not resolved, with the text at issue quoted and the reason each remains open.
Share count unreconciled, and the previous explanation withdrawn. The report states: "The 3.25 million difference is unreconciled, and the earlier explanation is withdrawn rather than reduced." The pre-funded warrants no longer account for the gap, because the quarterly report discloses they were exercised in full in April 2026. Reconciling it needs the transfer agent record or a later cover page, neither of which is public.
Treasury structure unconfirmed. The report states: "This structure has not been confirmed from the 10-Q, and the source is a secondary account of a director's remarks rather than a company disclosure." Confirming it needs the Q2 filing, due August 10, 2026.
The carry-forward on the third-party target is closed: what the Benchmark target rests on is now analyzed in valuation above, including the firm's role as a sales agent on the at-the-market program and the events the target predates. The carry-forward on dividends and buybacks is also closed, both now checked against a named source and recorded in null categories.
A filing sweep was run for this revision on August 4, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001820302 rather than against the ticker. The complete submissions index holds 752 filings between August 7, 2020 and July 27, 2026 and does not paginate, so the whole record was read rather than a recent view of it. Sixty-eight of those filings are statements of beneficial ownership: forty under the SC 13D and SC 13G form types and twenty-eight under the SCHEDULE spellings the Commission has used on this issuer's filings since May 2025, and all sixty-eight were opened. The sweep was re-run on August 17, 2026 and five filings have appeared since that Schedule 13G: a Form 8-K/A of August 7, 2026, a Form 8-K and the Form 10-Q for Q2 2026 both of August 10, 2026, a Schedule 13G/A of August 14, 2026, and a Form 8-K of August 17, 2026.
The 2025 reorganization was checked for an orphaned predecessor index and there is none. Bakkt Holdings, Inc. became Bakkt Intermediate Holdings, Inc. on November 3, 2025, a new parent succeeded to the Exchange Act registration on Form 8-K12B under the same commission file number, and the predecessor deregistered on Form 15 on November 17, 2025. All of it sits on one Central Index Key. A second registrant, BAKKT Holdings, LLC, exists at Central Index Key 0001755135 and holds two Form D notices from 2019 and 2020 and nothing else.
The Q2 2026 results and the Form 10-Q are absorbed here and recorded in the log below. The following were not reached:
Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.
This report said Agent has no Monthly Active Users figure, and the company publishes a target for one. A 25k target for year-end 2026, against a defined metric: monthly unique users completing at least one qualifying activity in an applicable Bakkt Agent-powered product. The definition is carried with it, because a user metric without its qualifying test is not checkable.
A disagreement about whether Agent has launched is recorded rather than resolved. This report calls it unlaunched and guided to Q3 2026. The deck marks one of three product paths available now and the other two targeted for Q4 2026. Available now on a slide is not revenue recognised in a filing, and the statement that it produces no revenue can be true of a product that has shipped.
The presentation predates this file. August 10 against a build of August 17, and it prints no day on its cover, so it is cited by month with the date it was located. Nothing here is newer information; the as-of does not move and nothing is repriced.
The dividends row dated its market data to a session this report does not price off. It read "Market data at the July 31, 2026 close shows a trailing and forward dividend yield of zero" in a report priced off the August 4, 2026 close of $7.56. The yield is zero on either close, so no figure moved; the date the row gave for it was what was wrong. The capital structure table's float and short-interest cells are stamped July 31, 2026 deliberately and are unchanged.
Two figures computed from the as-of stamp had not moved with it. The resale registration was declared effective on May 28, 2026, which is eleven weeks before this stamp rather than the nine the text carried. The Benchmark target was struck on May 13, 2026 and is thirteen weeks old rather than eleven. Both were correct when written against an earlier stamp, and neither was recomputed at the restamps since.
The filing record is re-dated to today. This section said in the present tense that nothing had been filed since the Schedule 13G of July 27, 2026, which the log below has contradicted since the Q2 2026 results were absorbed. The submissions index was re-read on August 17, 2026: five filings have appeared since that Schedule 13G, of which the Q2 results and the Form 10-Q are already carried here. The Form 8-K/A of August 7, the Schedule 13G/A of August 14 and the Form 8-K of August 17 were not opened, and neither was the Chief Financial Officer appointment the company announced on its newsroom on August 17, 2026. All four are named in what was not checked.
Nothing else changed. The price is not restruck, the pricing basis stays at the August 4, 2026 close of $7.56, and the capitalisation stays at $340.7M on the August 5, 2026 cover count.
The capitalisation is restruck on the share count, and the price is not touched. This file valued the company on 44,612,329 shares from the Q1 cover as of early May 2026 while quoting an August 4 price. The Q2 cover states 45,069,458 as of August 5, 2026, one day after that price, so the count is not merely fresher, it is the one contemporaneous with the basis the file already declared. Capitalisation moves from $337.3M to $340.7M and enterprise value from $287M to $290.0M.
Every denominator keeps its own basis, so only the numerator moved. Price to sales stays on annualised Q1 GAAP revenue and stays at roughly 0.35 times. Enterprise value to retained revenue stays on annualised Q1 retained revenue of $6.4M and moves from roughly 40 to roughly 45 times purely because the capitalisation did. Cash per share falls from $1.14 to $1.12 on more shares against the same $50.7M, and price to book moves from 0.95 to 0.96 times.
A caveat was corrected because an earlier revision falsified it. The enterprise-value note warned that a 31 March balance sheet was paired with a 4 August capitalisation. The balance sheet was advanced to June 30 earlier today, which made that warning untrue, and the caveat now names the real remaining mismatch: the retained-revenue denominator is still the first quarter while the balance sheet and the count are not.
The float is not restruck and does not need to be. Its figure carries its own basis, market data at July 31, 2026, independent of any cover count. The float sentence in the risk section was undated prose and now names both dates rather than implying one.
The balance sheet in the body was still March 31 while the log carried June 30. The Q2 10-Q of August 10, 2026 was absorbed for revenue and cash on August 11, and the balance-sheet section, the Framing item, the price-to-book row, the dividends row and the loyalty receivable were not advanced with it. Every one was correct and dated, and every one was a quarter behind. They now read June 30, 2026.
What the Q2 balance sheet changes. Goodwill $156.7M against $64.7M at December 31, 2025, on $92.0M recognised for the DTR acquisition, with accumulated impairments unmoved at $1,511.3M. Accumulated deficit $836.0M against $905.2M, because the six months to June 30 produced $69.2M of net income rather than a loss, almost all of it the non-cash gain on the Transchem warrants. Equity $354.4M against total assets of $403.6M, so the price-to-book multiple falls from roughly 2.0 times on pre-DTR equity to roughly 0.95 times, and the shares now trade below book.
The statement ties out, and the check is recorded rather than assumed. Cash of $50.0M plus $0.7M restricted is the $50.7M already carried. The accumulated deficit moves $69,192 thousand against six-month net income of $69,191 thousand: the one-thousand difference is presentation rounding in the equity statement rather than an unexplained gap, and it is stated rather than smoothed away.
The share count is NOT restruck, and it is the larger item left open. This file uses 44,612,329 shares from the Q1 10-Q cover as of early May 2026, and the Q2 10-Q cover states 45,069,458 as of August 5, 2026, one day after the pricing date. Restriking the capitalisation reaches every multiple derived from it and is a pricing decision rather than a figure refresh, so it is carried openly instead of being taken on the way past. The pricing basis stays at the August 4, 2026 close of $7.56 and the capitalisation stays at $337.3M.
Q1 figures were left standing as current when the Q2 print was recorded. Retained revenue, controllable operating expenses and cash were quoted as current in twenty-one places across the two documents after the Q2 revision earlier today. Retained revenue reads $0.8M rather than $1.6M, controllable operating expenses $20.5M rather than $18.6M, and cash, equivalents and restricted cash $50.7M rather than $82.6M. Every Q1-labelled row, the resolved card for the Q1 results and the condition table set in advance are unchanged, because they are correct history.
Three figures were derived and are recomputed rather than substituted. Cash per share moves from $1.85 and 24% of the close to $1.14 and 15%. Enterprise value moves from about $255M to about $287M, being the $337.3M market capitalisation less $50.7M of cash. Runway at the stated $12.1M quarterly burn moves from six to seven quarters to about four before the India commitment.
The headline changed with them. It read "$1.6 million a quarter to show for them" and now reads $0.8 million, which is the line the index carries.
Q2 2026 reported, and the take rate fell. Retained revenue of $0.8M on $168.8M of Total Transacting Volume implies a take rate of about 0.47%, against the 0.68% this file assumed on the Q1 print. On the quarter’s $20.5M of operating expenses excluding crypto and execution, clearing and brokerage costs, an annualised controllable base of roughly $82M, breakeven moves to about $17B of annual volume from the $10.9B previously derived. Volume fell from $241M in Q1; first-half volume was $410.0M against a year-end estimate of approximately $2.5B.
The reported profit is an unrealised warrant mark. GAAP net income of $80.8M sits against an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.8M, wider than the $9.8M a year earlier, with total revenue down 70.0% to $170.1M. The income comes from 47.5 million Transchem warrants carried at $107.9M against about $9.4M paid. The company states that its strategic asset value does not represent a market or liquidation value. Cash, equivalents and restricted cash were $50.7M at June 30.
The price was not restruck. The as-of stamp moves to August 11, 2026 and the pricing basis stays at the August 4, 2026 close of $7.56, market capitalisation unchanged at $337.3M. This revision records a filing; it does not reprice the file.
Two of the three prices shown beside a third-party action were struck on the action date rather than on the session before it. The price beside a published target is what the firm could see when it struck the figure, so it is the close on the last trading day before the action; a close struck on the action date itself is set after the note is out and sometimes moves because of it. The Benchmark Company, May 13, 2026: $8.02 → $8.87, the close of 12 May. Weiss Ratings, July 2, 2026: $8.36 → $8.42, the close of 1 July. The Clear Street row already stated that basis and is unchanged at $9.00, the close of 19 March against a 20 March action. The table carried two conventions at once, one row saying which session it used and two not; it now states the convention once, above the table, where it governs every row.
What rested on the withdrawn figures moves with them. The Benchmark target stood at about 114% above the price when it was struck, measured against the $8.87 now shown, and the fall in the shares since it was set runs from that figure rather than from the $8.7 previously given without a basis.
The coverage set is now both firms the issuer names, and both are its sales agents. Clear Street joins the table with Brian Dobson, a Buy maintained at $21 on March 20, 2026 cut from $39, and the close of $9.00 on 19 March as the price at publication. The firm sits alongside The Benchmark Company among the seven sales agents named in the Sales Agreement of January 16, 2026 for up to $300M of stock sold at the market. Read against the issuer's own coverage list of August 4, 2026, that makes every covering house Bakkt acknowledges one it pays to sell its stock, which is a sharper statement than the single filed conflict the file carried before.
Weiss Ratings stays and its absence from that list is not a finding. A model-derived grade was never going to appear on an issuer's coverage page, and with two covering houses it would be half the table if read as evidence.
Repriced to the 4 August close. That session has since ended, stamped by the exchange at 16:00 Eastern on volume of 886,823 shares, about 1.07 times the mean of the nine preceding sessions. $7.35 → $7.56, capitalization $327.9M → $337.3M, enterprise value ~$245M → ~$255M, retained-revenue multiple ~38× → ~40×, price to sales ~0.33× → ~0.35×, cash per share unchanged at ~$1.85 but 26% → 24% of the price, the hurdle gap 61% → 59% below $18.66, and on the disputed prospectus count ~$352M → ~$362M. The 52-week range of $6.75 to $49.79 is unchanged across 251 sessions. The filing sweep was re-run to August 4, 2026 across the complete index of 752 filings and found nothing lodged since July 27, 2026.
Two multiples were already stale at the previous close. The valuation table still showed ~37× retained revenue and ~0.33× sales against a capitalization that had moved on 3 August, while the prose beside it read 38×. Both are restruck, and the sales row now names its denominator, annualised Q1 gross revenue of $974.4M, so the figure can be reproduced from what this document carries.
Known gaps. Clear Street's target is reported by a service rather than read from a note, and no later action by the firm confirms it. What either firm discloses about this issuer in its own research is not established.
The ownership register named two holders and there are four, and the largest of them is the chief executive. Akshay Naheta reports 11,138,989 shares at 22.3% on Schedule 13D, the activist form, on an event date of April 30, 2026. Alyeska reports 9.99% on Schedule 13G. Neither appeared in this report, which named only ICE and BlackRock. The register section is rewritten around all four.
ICE's percentage was struck on a denominator this report says it rejects. The 16.5% previously carried resolves against 47,866,956 shares, the resale prospectus figure, while the valuation section states that this report uses the 10-Q cover figure of 44,612,329 instead. The filed basis is now carried: 8,380,362 shares at 19.8% against 41,878,871, with the 7,919,002 net-of-warrants figure identified as what it is rather than left to look like a second answer.
Repriced to the 3 August close. The session has since ended, stamped by the exchange at 16:00 Eastern on volume of about four fifths of the mean of the nine preceding sessions. $7.17 → $7.35, capitalization $319.9M → $327.9M, enterprise value ~$237M → ~$245M, retained-revenue multiple ~37× → ~38×, and on the disputed prospectus count ~$343M → ~$352M. The 52-week range of $6.75 to $49.79 is unchanged across 251 sessions. Third-party coverage now reads as a table with the analyst, the date and the close on that date, and adds the Weiss Ratings grade of July 2, 2026 alongside the Benchmark target.
Filing sweep. Re-run by Central Index Key across the complete index of 752 filings, which does not paginate. Sixty-eight are statements of beneficial ownership, twenty-eight of them under the SCHEDULE spellings, and all were opened. Nothing has been filed since July 27, 2026.
The late-filing record is longer than one notice. Four notifications of late filing are on the index, not the one previously identified: Form NT 10-Q of May 17, 2021, Form NT 10-K of March 17, 2025, Form NT 10-Q of November 12, 2025 and Form NT 10-K of March 17, 2026. Two consecutive late annual reports is a different signal from one, and the March 17, 2026 notice is now sourced to the Commission's index rather than to a third-party filing calendar.
The reorganization leaves no orphaned index. The successor took the same Central Index Key and commission file number, and the predecessor's Form 15 sits on the same index.
Not changed: the section order, the pricing basis, the tagging scheme, the valuation and financial performance sections, the risk ranking, and the reading that a thin float and a heavy short position dominate the trading behavior.
The share-count explanation is withdrawn. Valuation previously offered the February pre-funded warrants over 2,475,201 shares as the likely reconciliation of the gap between the 10-Q cover count and the resale prospectus. The Q1 10-Q discloses that those warrants were exercised in full in April 2026 and the shares issued, so they sit inside both counts and account for none of the difference. The 3.25 million gap is now recorded as unreconciled rather than mostly explained.
An NT 10-Q does exist. The previous entry stated that none had ever been filed. Bakkt filed one on November 10, 2025 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, citing technical problems with the EDGAR submission process rather than any difficulty preparing the statements. The reporting and control history risk is unchanged in severity: two annual notifications stand, and this quarterly one is benign on its face.
Filing sweep. Run across the current, periodic, registration, ownership and late-notification families and reaching today. Nothing has been filed since the Forms 4 of July 17, 2026 and the company release of July 27, 2026. The 10-K notification of March 17, 2026 is now sourced to the notification itself, which cites the time needed to finalise the consolidated statements and for a first-year audit of those statements and of internal control over financial reporting.
Pricing unchanged. July 31, 2026 was a Friday and today is a Sunday, so no session has occurred since the previous entry. The $7.17 close, the $319.9M capitalization and every multiple derived from them carry forward unrepriced. Only the as-of stamp moves.
A $7.0M insider purchase, now on the record. Capital structure gains a subsection: director Michael Alfred bought 865,000 shares in open-market transactions through Alpine Fox LP across 15 and 18 May and June 9 and 10, 2026, roughly $7.0M at $7.52 to $8.93, leaving the partnership holding 905,000 shares. Every other disclosed insider transaction in the period is a withholding-scale sale, and those for 29 April and 29 June are added.
The Benchmark target is now analyzed rather than only reported. Valuation gains a subsection establishing two things about it. The Benchmark Company is one of seven sales agents on the $300M at-the-market program under the Sales Agreement of January 16, 2026, so the firm publishing the target also earns fees placing the issuer's stock. And the target was struck on May 13, 2026, one day after the resale registration was filed and fifteen before it was declared effective, so it predates the overhang going live, the June purchases and the fall to $7.17. The rating and target remain reported as market data and are adopted nowhere.
Dividends and buybacks settled on this document's own evidence. Both null rows moved from Not established to None, each against Note 11 of the Q1 2026 10-Q and market data at the close, rather than by importing the companion calendar's finding.
Newly tracked. The at-the-market program's authorised capacity of up to $300M against a market capitalization near $320M, with $21.5M gross and $20.8M net drawn on 1,990,434 shares to March 31, 2026. The April exercise of the pre-funded warrants is added to the dilution table. The resale registration was declared effective May 28, 2026, so the overhang has been live for nine weeks.
Next scheduled update: Q2 2026 results, confirmed for August 10, 2026 after market close.
Scope of review. Full filing-type audit across 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, S-1, S-3, 424, 13D, 13G, NT 10-K, NT 10-Q and Forms 3, 4 and 144, plus the proxy statement. Not applicable to this issuer: 6-K, 20-F, 40-F, NT 20-F and NT 40-F are foreign private issuer forms, and Bakkt is a Delaware-incorporated domestic filer. No S-1 exists, since Bakkt is S-3 eligible. No NT 10-Q has ever been filed.
Corrections to the 26 July build. ICE ownership restated from 19.8% to 16.5% (7,919,002 shares at April 30, 2026). ICE Class 1 and Class 2 Warrants strike at $25.50 and expire September 2029, far out of the money, so the DTR anti-dilution ratchet they would trigger is far less likely to fire than the capital structure section previously implied. The lock-up question, previously flagged as unverified, is resolved in reverse: there is no lock-up, and registration rights instead obligated Bakkt to file a resale registration within five business days of the DTR closing.
Newly tracked. The Gyzer Inc. acquisition (May 2026) from Chief Commercial Officer Daniel Ishag, a second executive-vendor transaction within six weeks. The Form S-3 resale registration filed May 12, 2026 covering 21,010,640 shares (~43.9% of outstanding), with a selling-stockholder table. BlackRock's Schedule 13G filed July 27, 2026 disclosing 2,452,659 shares (5.5%) held passively. A new float and short-interest subsection: a tradable float of only ~26.73M of 44.61M shares with roughly 23.6% sold short (~6.3M shares, up 216.8% year over year, ~6.5 days to cover). The CEO's inducement-grant terms: 1,607,717 PSUs, ~$15M grant-date value, first price hurdle $18.66 against a $7.17 share price, performance period to March 21, 2028. Three auditors in three years (EY, KPMG, Grant Thornton). A hedged reframe of Bakkt Global around the digital asset treasury strategy, flagged Low confidence pending verification against the 10-Q.
Industry section rewritten. The industry section previously framed stablecoins as straightforwardly growing. It now leads with the divergence: total stablecoin market capitalization fell to ~$310B by late July, the largest monthly decline since the Terra collapse in May 2022, while adjusted transaction volume hit a record $1.79 trillion in June, up 63% month over month. Since Bakkt earns on transactions rather than float, the second figure is the one that bears on its economics.
Valuation repriced to the July 31, 2026 close: $7.49 → $7.17, market cap ~$335M → $319.9M, enterprise value $252M → $237M, EV/retained revenue 38× → 37×, and the 52-week low corrected from $6.87 to $6.75. The share-count discrepancy between the 10-Q cover (44,612,329) and the resale prospectus (47,866,956) is disclosed rather than silently reconciled; BlackRock's 5.5% implies a ~44.6M denominator, which favors the 10-Q figure.
Risks expanded. Added: the 44% resale overhang; a live goodwill impairment trigger, since the shares now sit 6% above their 52-week low and Bakkt's own disclosure names a market-cap decline as a trigger; auditor turnover; and undisclosed-magnitude treasury exposure. The related-party risk was rewritten from an event to a pattern. The volatility risk was upgraded from Low to Medium and rebuilt around the thin float. Verification steps now cover the resale prospectus, Forms 4 and 144, 13D and 13G filings and short-interest reports.
Next scheduled update: Q2 2026 results, confirmed for August 10, 2026 after market close.
Initial research note published across twelve sections: business model, revenue streams, industry trends, competitors, financial performance, capital structure and dilution, valuation, growth drivers, risks, bull/base/bear cases, the single resolving question, and a final summary, with facts separated from labeled assumptions throughout and no buy, sell or hold recommendation. Built around the pass-through revenue problem: $243.6M of reported Q1 2026 revenue against $1.6M retained after crypto costs and execution fees, which makes the price-to-sales ratio quoted by every data provider actively misleading. Sources: Bakkt's Q1 2026 10-Q read directly on sec.gov, Forms 8-K and 8-K/A including the July 16, 2026 DTR financials, company press releases through June 4, 2026, FY2025 results, ICE's Schedule 13D/A, CourtListener docket 1:25-cv-02520, and third-party stablecoin market data, all as available on July 26, 2026. Pricing as of the July 25, 2026 close of $7.49.