BKKT
BKKT · Bakkt, Inc. · Catalyst Calendar · as of August 17, 2026
Banded 0–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 months, earliest first. Numbering is gapless and runs straight through the bands, so a boundary never resets the count. An ID marks position in the current ordering and changes between revisions, so catalysts are named by title.
These are not thirteen independent shots on goal. A failure early in the sequence invalidates what sits below it: the Bakkt Agent launch (D2) gates partner activation, which gates volume against the year-end Total Transacting Volume target (D6), which gates retained revenue at the Q3 2026 results (D3) and the FY2026 results (D9), which is what would make equity issuance optional rather than necessary. Separately, cash is contested: the remaining Transchem warrant exercise of roughly $28M (D12) competes with operating runway.
Sibos 28 September to 1 October in Miami Beach, Korea Blockchain Week 29 September to 1 October in Seoul, TOKEN2049 Singapore 7 to 8 October, and Money20/20 USA 18 to 21 October in Las Vegas. Bakkt is not a confirmed exhibitor or speaker at any of them in public materials, so this is a window rather than a scheduled company event. Confidence rates the conference dates, which are published; it does not rate whether Bakkt appears.
A partner or corridor announcement timed to one of these events, particularly anything Korea-related, which would extend the overseas thesis beyond Japan and India.
Better-capitalized competitors use the same window. Absence from the conversation during peak season is a soft negative in itself.
Source: schedules published by their organizers for Sibos, Korea Blockchain Week, TOKEN2049 and Money20/20, June to July 2026; Q3 2025 earnings call for the Korea reference. Filed
Management guided to a Q3 2026 launch of the software layer coordinating onboarding, account creation, funding and cross-border money movement. Monthly Active Users becomes a reported KPI only after launch, and management tied that guidance to being ready to announce partnerships alongside the platform. This is the gate on the forward chain: partner activation, volume growth and the change in revenue mix all sit downstream.
Launch on time with named partners attached, which would give the Q3 report a Monthly Active Users baseline rather than a technical milestone.
A slip past Q3, or a launch with no partners named, which on management's own framing would read as a soft launch and push revenue contribution into 2027.
A management-stated quarter for a product that has never shipped is not a contractual date, which is why timing confidence is Medium rather than High.
Source: Q1 2026 earnings call and results release, May 11, 2026. Filed
Filing deadline around November 9, 2026; Q3 2025 was reported on November 10, 2025. First full quarter with DTR consolidated, and the first report that can carry an Agent Monthly Active Users figure if the Q3 launch held. Last data point before the year-end volume target is measured.
A reported Monthly Active Users number, volume inflecting, retained revenue in the mid-single-digit millions, and the year-end target reiterated with supporting detail.
Reaching $2.5B from a $241M quarterly base requires roughly a tenfold step-up. Without a large sequential move here the target is arithmetically out of reach.
Source: SEC accelerated-filer deadlines; Q3 2025 results release, November 10, 2025. Estimate
Guided for H2 2026: support for more than 200 assets, up from roughly 45 today, plus same-day fiat to stablecoin conversion through the owned DTR settlement engine. Asset breadth is table stakes for institutional partners rather than a differentiator, but it removes an objection during sales cycles.
Delivered early and paired with the Agent launch, giving the Q3 report two shipped items rather than one.
Integration consumes engineering capacity Agent needs. A 48-person company running two major technical programs at once is a real constraint.
Source: Q1 2026 earnings call, May 11, 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 1, for the current asset list. Filed
Bakkt states it operates in 60+ jurisdictions and targets 90+ by year-end, verifiable at the FY2026 report with possible interim disclosure at Q3. The interim disclosure has partly arrived, in a presentation rather than a filing. Page 24 of the company's August 2026 investor presentation, located August 10 states money movement in 63+ countries and enumerates off-ramps from stablecoins to 19 local currencies. Filed That is a datum between quarter-ends of exactly the kind a filing does not publish, and it moves the count off the 60+ this row was written against. Jurisdiction count is a reach metric rather than a revenue metric: Q1 revenue from outside the United States was $31.5M gross, which on the same pass-through arithmetic is a small retained figure.
Expansion into high-volume corridors rather than a count of low-activity markets, where corridor quality would matter more than the number.
Reaching 90 jurisdictions with no corresponding volume increase would confirm the metric is presentational.
Source: Q1 2026 earnings call, May 11, 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 4, for foreign revenue. Filed
Measured at December 31, 2026 and reported at FY2026 results, with progress observable at Q3. This is the only quantified forward target management has published, so it functions as the scorecard for the 2026 plan. Q1 volume was approximately $241M.
Hit or beaten with retained revenue scaling proportionally. At the implied 0.68% take rate, $2.5B of volume would produce roughly $17M of retained revenue: short of the $74M annualised cost base, but a changed trajectory.
Missed or quietly restated. The figure is ambiguous as published, since it is unclear whether $2.5B is a cumulative full-year total or an annualised exit run rate, and the two readings differ roughly fourfold in implied revenue.
The take-rate arithmetic above is analyst calculation on disclosed figures: $1.6M retained on $241M of volume gives roughly 0.68%, applied to $2.5B.
Source: Q1 2026 earnings call and results release, May 11, 2026. Filed
The statutory rulemaking deadline of July 18, 2026 passed with no final rules published. Open comment periods extend past it: the FDIC compliance proposal closes August 4, 2026 and a five-agency customer identification proposal closes August 21, 2026. Seven federal agencies must finalise rules on reserves, capital, anti-money-laundering and licensing for permitted payment stablecoin issuers. Bakkt is a distributor and infrastructure provider rather than an issuer, so it does not face issuer capital requirements directly.
Rules that entrench licensed intermediaries and raise compliance costs for unlicensed competitors would favor the licensing stack. This is the clearest structural argument in the company's favor.
Rules that let large banks issue and distribute directly would compress the intermediary layer Bakkt occupies.
Source: GENIUS Act rulemaking trackers and legal commentary, June to July 2026. Market
The Act takes effect on the earlier of January 18, 2027 or 120 days after final rules. Final rules would have needed to publish by roughly September 20, 2026 to pull the date forward, so January 18, 2027 is the operative date. A separate restriction binds from July 18, 2028: US digital-asset service providers may no longer offer stablecoins unless issued by a permitted domestic issuer or a registered foreign issuer. That is the provision binding Bakkt directly, since it distributes rather than issues.
A licensed, compliance-ready intermediary is well placed if partners must route through supervised infrastructure.
Compliance cost against a $20.5M quarterly cost base, and constrained asset support if key stablecoins lack a permitted-issuer pathway.
Source: GENIUS Act Section 20; legal commentary and rulemaking trackers, July 2026. Filed Market
Filing deadline around March 16, 2027; FY2025 was reported on March 16, 2026. Audited full-year results, the first with DTR consolidated for eight months, and the definitive answer on the volume target, jurisdiction expansion and whether Agent produced revenue. Also where a full audit could surface DTR purchase-accounting outcomes and any internal control findings.
Retained revenue scaling toward the cost base, a clean audit, and 2027 guidance with quantified targets rather than directional language.
Targets missed and reframed. Late-filing notices were filed for both FY2024 and FY2025, so a third consecutive one would itself be a governance signal independent of the numbers.
Confidence is Medium rather than High despite a statutory deadline. The issuer filed a notification of late filing for each of the last two annual reports, on March 17, 2025 and March 17, 2026, and one for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, which argues against assuming punctuality.
Source: SEC accelerated-filer deadlines; FY2025 results release, March 16, 2026; the Commission's filing index for the Form NT 10-K of March 17, 2026 and the Form NT 10-K of March 17, 2025, two consecutive late annual reports. Estimate Filed
Annual test plus interim testing on any triggering event, reported with FY2026 results. Goodwill stood at $64.7M at March 31, 2026, before the DTR acquisition added more. Accumulated goodwill impairment already recognized historically is $1,511.3M.
No impairment, implying the DTR technology is generating or credibly forecast to generate value.
The company's disclosure names the triggers: performance below expectations, a decline in market capitalization, or negative revisions to key assumptions. At $7.56 the shares sit 12% above the 52-week low of $6.75, and traded within 7.3% of it intraday on 4 August, so a market-capitalization trigger is live rather than hypothetical.
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 5, goodwill and intangible assets. Filed
Filing deadline around May 10, 2027. First clean year-over-year comparison against a quarter that already reflected the new strategy, and the first full year of DTR ownership.
Large percentage growth off a small base, with an established Agent Monthly Active Users trend line.
Failure to grow against the $0.8M retained-revenue base would be difficult to attribute to transition effects two years into the pivot.
Source: SEC filing deadlines; Bakkt reporting history. Estimate
Structural items that shape the backdrop but do not trade in the window.
An 18-month exercise window runs from the June 2026 allotment, so the outer deadline is around December 2027, though the decision point may arrive earlier if the broking acquisition progresses. Bakkt has paid roughly $9.4M for 25% of the subscription; exercising requires funding the remaining 75%, roughly $28M. That is about a third of current cash and more than two quarters of operating burn, and it does not appear as a liability on the balance sheet.
Transchem shares appreciate and Bakkt exercises into a gain, or it walks away having risked $9.4M. The structure is a call rather than an obligation.
Exercise using cash the operating business needs, or funded with equity at depressed prices. Letting the warrants lapse writes off $9.4M. Exposed to INR and USD movement and the BSE price.
Source: Bakkt press release and Form 8-K, June 4, 2026, including the risk factors listed there. Filed
Ongoing and undated, most material first. These take “Why undated” in place of timing confidence. An item whose timing reads unscheduled, pending or not announced is classified here by substance, whatever its category and whatever number it carried before.
Bakkt funds itself with equity. The ATM established under a Sales Agreement dated January 16, 2026, announced 20 January, carries capacity of up to $300M of common stock through seven sales agents, and remains available under an effective shelf at management's discretion, disclosed only after the fact. Against a market capitalization near $340M the authorised capacity is close to the whole company. Usage to March 31, 2026 was 1,990,434 shares for $21.5M gross and $20.8M net. Separately and larger, a resale registration filed May 12, 2026 and declared effective May 28, 2026, with its prospectus filed 27 May, covers up to 21,010,640 shares, approximately 43.9% of outstanding voting securities, held by insiders including the CEO at 8,926,320 and ICE at 8,380,362. Forward-looking statements contemplate raising capital including by the Chief Executive Officer. At the Q1 operating burn of $12.1M a quarter, $50.7M implies roughly four quarters of runway before the India commitment, and materially less including it.
Restraint, and no insider selling. At $7.56 the stock is 14% below the $8.75 February placement and 13% below the $8.65 DTR VWAP, so neither the company nor the selling stockholders should want to transact here. A strategic investor at or above market would validate the platform rather than just fund it.
Heavy ATM usage at depressed prices, a discounted registered direct, or the start of insider resales. The company's own risk factors describe the result as a public market overhang.
Registration is permission rather than prediction: the selling stockholders may sell all, some or none, and the CEO's sales are constrained by blackout periods given his access to material non-public information. What changed on 12 May is that the legal impediment was removed. There is no lock-up.
Source: Form S-3 resale prospectus, May 12, 2026, cover page, risk factors and selling stockholders table; 10-Q Q1 2026, Notes 2 and 11; press releases January 20, 2026 and February 27, 2026. Filed
Revenue is almost entirely transaction-driven: $243.4M of Q1 2026's $243.6M was transaction revenue against $0.197M of service revenue. Because retained revenue is a thin spread on notional volume, a market-wide swing moves the economics proportionally with no change in competitive position or execution. The equity carries a beta near 5.9.
State at July 31, 2026: Bitcoin around $63,870, down from a $126,000 peak in October 2025 and off a 21-month low near $58,000 in late June. Total crypto market capitalization around $2.26 trillion, roughly a third below a year earlier, with the Fear and Greed index in fear territory. Total stablecoin market capitalization fell to around $310 billion by late July, the largest monthly decline since the Terra collapse in May 2022, while adjusted stablecoin transaction volume hit a record $1.79 trillion in June, up 63% month over month.
A sustained rise in retail and institutional activity lifts volume mechanically, making the year-end target easier for reasons unrelated to the Agent launch or partner conversion.
A quiet market makes the target unreachable regardless of execution, and makes strategic failure hard to distinguish from cyclical weakness.
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 4, and forward-looking statements; market data as of July 31, 2026. Filed Market
Zero Hash, the closest direct analogue, reports over $65B in settled volume, 50+ US state licenses and clients including Interactive Brokers and the Morgan Stanley E*TRADE platform. Bridge is owned by Stripe, Paxos holds the deepest multi-jurisdiction licensing, Circle issues USDC, and Fireblocks runs custody for 2,400+ organizations. Bakkt's quarterly volume is $241M and it employs roughly 48 people. Each institutional mandate won by a rival is one the rebuilt sales organization cannot win, and the sales cycles are long.
Consolidation pressure could make a licensed, debt-free operator valuable to a buyer, or drive smaller competitors out and leave a thinner field.
Banks entering directly would compress the intermediary layer. Custody is also outsourced to BitGo, Coinbase Custody and Fireblocks Trust, so some dependencies are also competitors.
Source: competitive reviews, June to July 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 1, for custody arrangements. Filed Market
A thin float, a quarter of it short and 6.5 days to cover together explain a beta near 5.9 and a 52-week range from $6.75 to $49.79. Because ICE, the co-chief executive, DTR holders and other affiliates hold most of the register, the tradable float is about 26.73 million shares against 44.61 million outstanding. The concentration is now measurable rather than asserted: the co-chief executive reports 11,138,989 shares at 22.3% on Schedule 13D, ICE 8,380,362 at 19.8% on Schedule 13D/A, Alyeska 3,053,153 at 9.99% and BlackRock 2,452,659 at 5.5%, both on Schedule 13G. Four disclosed holders account for roughly 25 million shares, which is very close to the whole of the notional float. Roughly 6.3 million shares are sold short, about 23.6% of that float, up 216.8% since July 2025, at roughly 6.5 days to cover. On the long side, BlackRock filed a Schedule 13G on July 27, 2026 disclosing 2,452,659 shares, 5.5% of Class A as of 30 June, held passively under Exchange Act Rule 13d-1(b) with sole voting power over 2,419,374. This is a transmission mechanism rather than a catalyst: it governs how violently every other item gets priced.
Short covering into limited supply. If the Agent launch or a disclosed contract surprises positively, 6.3 million shares needing to be repurchased across 6.5 days of average volume can drive a move larger than the news warrants.
The same illiquidity works in reverse, and the 21,010,640-share resale registration sits ready to add supply into any rally. A 216.8% increase in short interest is a standing position against the company by capital reading the same filings.
The BlackRock position of 2,452,659 shares equals 5.5% only against a denominator near 44.6 million, which corroborates the 10-Q cover figure over the resale prospectus figure of 47,866,956.
Source: BlackRock Schedule 13G, filed July 27, 2026 for event date June 30, 2026; float and short-interest data as of July 31, 2026; Form S-3, May 12, 2026. Filed Market
No transaction is pending or disclosed. Commentary through 2026 anticipates consolidation among stablecoin-adjacent fintechs as GENIUS Act requirements bind, and a licensed, debt-free operator at roughly $320M with $50.7M of cash is a plausible target. Bakkt has also repeatedly acted as an acquirer. Included for completeness rather than weight.
An acquisition at a premium to a depressed price, or a strategic investment bringing distribution alongside capital.
Bakkt acquires again using its own depressed shares. It has closed two acquisitions from its own executives in six weeks, so the base rate for further stock-funded related-party deals is not low. Alternatively, takeover speculation drives a rally that unwinds, as it did in 2024 and 2025 when shares rose roughly 160% on unconfirmed reports that produced no deal.
Source: consolidation commentary, July 2026; coverage of the November 2024 speculation; 10-Q Q1 2026 forward-looking statements. Filed Market
Filings reference an updated investment policy and related treasury strategy with an extensive risk-factor set: digital asset price volatility, fair-value accounting of holdings, corporate alternative minimum tax on unrealized gains, custodial counterparty risk, and competition by other Bitcoin treasury companies. Board composition aligns: Mike Alfred of IREN and Eaglebrook Advisors and Lyn Alden of Swan Bitcoin and Ego Death Capital joined in autumn 2025.
Crypto appreciation flowing through Strategic Asset Value, plus a differentiated story for investors seeking indirect exposure, supported by board members with domain credibility.
Compounding exposure. A company whose revenue already tracks crypto activity adding balance-sheet crypto removes diversification precisely when it is most needed. Fair-value accounting injects earnings volatility unrelated to operations, and alternative minimum tax on unrealized gains can create cash liabilities without cash proceeds against $50.7M of liquidity.
Public commentary attributed to a Bakkt director describes a deliberate structure in which Bitcoin sits on the balance sheets of overseas listed entities Bakkt indirectly controls or holds stakes in, namely Bitcoin Japan and prospectively Transchem, rather than the US parent. If accurate, Strategic Asset Value and the overseas pillar carry more crypto beta than a portfolio of foreign financial stakes implies. The description comes from a secondary account of a director's remarks rather than a company disclosure and could not be confirmed from the 10-Q. The existence of a treasury strategy is well evidenced by the filings; its size and location are not. The Q2 print disclosed no sizing, so any disclosure at the Q3 2026 results (D3) is the thing to watch.
Source: Form S-3, May 12, 2026, forward-looking statements; Bakkt press release on board appointment, October 20, 2025; Bakkt board of directors page. Filed
Franklin v. Bakkt Holdings, Inc., docket 1:25-cv-02520. Class period March 25, 2024 to March 17, 2025. Alleges Bakkt misrepresented the stability and diversity of crypto services revenue while Webull accounted for roughly 74% of it. Bakkt moved to dismiss all claims on November 14, 2025 and briefing completed February 12, 2026. As of the Q1 10-Q no hearing had been scheduled, which is why this sits here rather than among dated items. Binary and material against a market capitalization near $340M, and it also gates three shareholder demand letters received in July 2025, two of which were paused pending the ruling.
Dismissal with prejudice removes the overhang, releases the paused demands, and eliminates a legal cost line from a company with $20.5M of quarterly controllable expense.
Denial moves the case into discovery, class certification and settlement negotiation. Roughly half of US securities class actions between 1997 and 2022 settled. Filed April 2025, a plausible resolution window is 2027 to 2028, and a cash settlement would draw on the $50.7M balance. Bakkt has not accrued a loss, stating it is refraining from expressing judgment given the early stage.
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 16, commitments and contingencies; CourtListener docket 1:25-cv-02520; plaintiff firm filings, April to May 2025. Filed Market
Crypto transaction activity is sensitive to liquidity conditions, and an unprofitable, cash-burning issuer dependent on equity is doubly exposed to the cost of capital. Bakkt does not hedge this and carries no debt, so the exposure is indirect but real. The FOMC held at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, 2026, its fifth consecutive hold, on a 9 to 3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, under Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets price two 25 basis point increases during 2026; the June dot plot puts year-end between 3.6% and 4.1%. The next meeting is 15 to 16 September, and Jackson Hole runs 27 to 29 August.
A dovish turn supports risk assets broadly, lifting crypto activity and making equity issuance less punitive. Restored ETF inflows would be the transmission channel most visible in transacting volume.
A hiking bias is the unusual feature: three dissents wanted higher rates. Tightening into an already weak crypto tape compounds pressure on volumes while raising the cost of the equity Bakkt must issue.
Source: Federal Open Market Committee statement and implementation note, July 29, 2026; Federal Open Market Committee June 2026 dot plot and published 2026 meeting calendar; market pricing of the rate path as of July 31, 2026. Filed Market
A memorandum of understanding was signed around May 2026 with Zoth, a privacy-focused stablecoin provider, and the company stated definitive commercial agreements are expected to follow. Zoth was described as processing roughly $300M annualised total payment volume, with a stated partnership target of roughly $1B annualised by year-end 2026, about four times Bakkt's current annualised transacting volume. This is the most concrete named counterparty in the growth story, but a memorandum is not revenue.
A signed agreement with disclosed economics, particularly a take rate, would let the payments business be modelled for the first time.
The memorandum lapses quietly, or converts without disclosed terms. The separate 2025 commercial agreement with DTR generated no payments at all through March 31, 2026 before being superseded by the acquisition, which is a directly relevant precedent.
Source: Q1 2026 results release and earnings call, May 11, 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 9, DTR commercial agreement, no payments made. Filed
The last investor day was held on March 17, 2026 at the NYSE, the day after FY2025 results, and Bakkt replaced its Q4 2025 earnings call with it rather than holding both. A repeat in the same slot is plausible but inferred from a single prior occurrence, not announced, which is why it sits here rather than among dated items. If held, it would be the venue for 2027 KPI targets and any strategy revision.
Quantified multi-year volume, take-rate and profitability targets, being the profitability bridge that has never been published.
No event held, which after two consecutive March events would read as avoidance, or an event that resets 2026 targets without explaining the miss.
Source: press releases January 12, 2026 and March 12, 2026; investor relations events page carrying no 2027 event. Open
If the motion is denied: discovery, class certification and settlement negotiation. If granted: possible amendment or appeal. The three paused shareholder board demands from July 2025 reactivate either way. Securities class actions typically run two to three years.
Early settlement within insurance limits, removing the overhang without a material cash outflow.
A cash settlement drawn from the $50.7M balance, plus multi-year legal costs and management distraction during the rebuild.
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 16; CourtListener docket 1:25-cv-02520. Filed
Transchem has informed Bakkt it is evaluating acquiring a SEBI-regulated stockbroking and depository participant business, alongside a possible name change and management overhaul. Management cited India's 136 million equity investors as the rationale. It would convert the India position from a passive warrant stake into an operating platform, and would bear on the warrant exercise decision (D12).
A completed acquisition creates a second operating business in a large, fast-growing market and would support exercising the warrants.
This is a third-party transaction Bakkt does not control and has not signed. Bakkt's own release lists failure to identify, negotiate or consummate it as a named risk, so it is an option on someone else's execution.
Source: Bakkt press release and Form 8-K, June 4, 2026. Filed
ICE holds Series A non-voting convertible preferred issued in the tax receivable agreement settlement, each share convertible one for one into common on clearance. Mechanically this dilutes voting power rather than economics, since the preferred already sits in the capital structure. ICE held 7,919,002 shares, 16.5% of Class A as of April 30, 2026, diluted from a former majority position by issuance rather than selling.
Conversion signals ICE intends to stay involved rather than exit, which matters for a company whose main asset traces to its ICE heritage.
Conversion followed by registered sales would add persistent supply, and ICE is already registered for 8,380,362 shares of resale.
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 8, tax receivable agreement; ICE Schedule 13D/A, May 2026. Filed
Form 4s were filed around April 29, 2026 in connection with the DTR closing. Three further Form 4s landed on July 17, 2026: the General Counsel sold 539 shares at $8.44, the CFO 657 shares and the Chief Accounting Officer 94 shares. A Form 144 filed July 16, 2026 covers a further 604 shares, roughly $4,989, from performance units that vested on 12 July. The General Counsel's disclosed Rule 10b5-1 sales across April to July 2026 total roughly $96,000 in blocks of a few hundred to a few thousand shares, consistent with tax withholding on vesting rather than discretionary selling.
Further open-market purchases, particularly by the CEO or by a director other than Alfred, would broaden a signal that currently rests on one buyer.
A shift from withholding-scale dispositions to substantive open-market sales would read very differently, and the resale registration, effective May 28, 2026, now makes such sales straightforward. The prospectus expressly contemplates sales through Rule 10b5-1 plans, and one already exists at General Counsel level, so the signal is a disposition on the scale of the 865,000 shares already bought, not the appearance of a plan.
The 865,000 shares an aggregator reports as insider buying are open-market purchases and are verified to Form 4s: Director Michael Alfred acquired them through Alpine Fox LP across four dates in May and June 2026, at a weighted average between $7.71 and $8.34. Reading the figure as award-related, which an earlier version of this document did, asserted something about Forms 4 that only Forms 4 can settle, and they settle it the other way. The signal is narrow rather than absent: one director, not a board.
Source: Forms 4 of 19 May, 11 June, 30 June and July 17, 2026 and Form 144 of July 16, 2026, as filed; Form S-3, May 12, 2026, declared effective May 28, 2026. Filed
Closed items, kept for the record, ordered by resolution date. A resolved catalyst takes the next free R number; it does not carry an earlier number over. Where an item spans dates, the resolution date is the date it completed.
ATM program established January 20, 2026; registered direct priced February 27, 2026. $21.5M raised through at-the-market sales, plus a $48.125M registered direct offering of 3,024,799 shares at $8.75 and pre-funded warrants for 2,475,201 shares. The ATM remains active under an effective shelf, which is the forward component tracked as the issuance overhang (S1).
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Notes 2 and 11; press releases January 20, 2026 and February 27, 2026. Filed
Agreement signed January 11, 2026, closed April 30, 2026. Bakkt acquired Distributed Technologies Research Global Ltd. from CEO Akshay Naheta and other holders at an $8.65 VWAP, roughly $98M. A Special Committee of independent directors approved it and Naheta recused himself. Per the Form 8-K/A filed July 16, 2026, DTR reported no revenue in FY2025 and a €8.4M net loss, with €41,909 of revenue in Q1 2026. The resulting goodwill faces impairment testing (D10), and an anti-dilution ratchet may issue up to 725,592 further shares if existing warrants are exercised.
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 9; Form 8-K/A, July 16, 2026; press release April 30, 2026. Filed
Revenue $243.6M, down 77.1% year over year; retained revenue after crypto costs and execution fees $1.6M; net loss $11.7M; Adjusted EBITDA negative $13.7M; cash and restricted cash $82.6M with no long-term debt. Three KPIs introduced: Markets Total Transacting Volume at roughly $241M, Agent Monthly Active Users post-launch, and Strategic Asset Value at roughly $76M. Shares rose roughly 15% on the day, reversing a historical pattern in which earnings events averaged a decline of about 12%.
Source: Q1 2026 press release and earnings call, May 11, 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026. Filed Market
Naheta was co-CEO from March 21, 2025 and sole CEO from January 2026. Daniel Ishag was appointed Chief Commercial Officer, announced May 11, 2026, to rebuild the commercial organization across Markets and Agent. Karen Alexander remains CFO. The resulting governance and key-person concentration is tracked as a standing condition (S5).
Source: press releases March 19, 2025, January 12, 2026 and May 11, 2026; 10-Q Q1 2026, Note 2. Filed
Indian regulatory approvals received and Transchem Limited, BSE code 500422, allotted 47,500,000 warrants to Bakkt for approximately $9.4M, representing 25% of the total subscription amount. The remaining 75%, roughly $28M, is payable only on exercise within an 18-month window, tracked as the warrant exercise decision (D12). This was the most recent Bakkt press release of any kind as of the pricing date.
Source: Bakkt press release and Form 8-K, June 4, 2026. Filed
Up-C collapse November 3, 2025, name change to Bakkt, Inc. January 22, 2026, annual meeting held June 23, 2026. The dual-class structure was eliminated, leaving a single share class and no non-controlling interest. The tax receivable agreement was terminated at a settlement cost of $26.9M, of which roughly $0.5M remained payable at March 31, 2026. ICE received Series A non-voting convertible preferred in the settlement, tracked as the preferred conversion (S14).
Source: 10-Q Q1 2026, Notes 1 and 8; company event calendar, June 2026. Filed
Reported after close on the date the company had confirmed, with the Form 10-Q filed the same day at a lag of 41 days from the June 30 period end. The card set five downside conditions in advance and the print met all five, three of them past the marker, and met none of the four upside conditions.
| Condition set in advance | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Volume flat or down | Total Transacting Volume $168.8M, against $241M in Q1, down 30% |
| Retained revenue near $1.6M | $0.8M, being $170.1M of revenue less $169.3M of crypto costs and execution, clearing and brokerage fees |
| Controllable opex up on DTR integration | $20.5M excluding crypto and ECB costs, against $19.0M, up 7.9% |
| Cash toward $65M to $70M | $50.7M cash, equivalents and restricted, below the band |
| Agent slipping to Q4 | Available for partner integration; co-branded card and Neobank-as-a-Service programs targeted for Q4 2026 |
The headline is a profit and the quarter is not. GAAP net income attributable to Bakkt was $80.8M, $1.96 basic and $1.94 diluted, against an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.8M that is wider than the $9.8M of Q2 2025. Total revenue fell 70.0% year on year, $170.1M against $568.1M, which the company attributes to previously disclosed client transitions and softer digital asset trading volumes.
The income is a warrant mark. 47.5 million Transchem warrants were allotted in June following Indian regulatory approval and are carried at a fair value of $107.9M against roughly $9.4M paid to date. The company also reports a strategic asset value combining that position with a $10.6M equity method investment in Bitcoin Japan, and states plainly that it does not represent a market or liquidation value. An unrealised mark on an unlisted position is the whole of the reported profit and none of the operating result.
Source: Form 10-Q and Form 8-K with Item 2.02, both August 10, 2026; second quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1.
Every category reviewed appears as a row, including those that produced catalysts, which read across by title and ID. A category checked and found empty is recorded rather than omitted, and a category not examined reads Not established rather than None.
| Category | Status | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Covered above | Q2 2026 results (R7), Q3 2026 results (D3), FY2026 results (D9), Q1 2027 results (D11), Q1 2026 results (R3). |
| Product launches | Covered above | Bakkt Agent launch (D2), DTR platform upgrade to 200+ assets (D4). |
| Investor days | Covered above | Investor day 2027 (S11), undated because no event is announced. |
| Regulatory decisions | Covered above | GENIUS Act final rules window (D7), GENIUS Act effective date (D8), India regulatory approval (R5). |
| Lawsuits | Covered above | Securities class action ruling (S8), class action post-ruling path (S12). |
| Macro events | Covered above | Crypto market activity and transaction volumes (S2), interest rate path (S9). |
| Industry conferences | Covered above | Autumn conference season (D1). |
| Management changes | Covered above | Management team rebuilt (R4); related-party governance and key-person concentration (S5). |
| Major contracts | Covered above | Zoth definitive commercial agreements (S10). No signed contract of disclosed value exists: the Nexo partnership of February 2026 and the Zoth memorandum of May 2026 carry no disclosed value, terms or take rate. |
| Share buybacks | None | No repurchase program is authorised or disclosed in the filings reviewed. Bakkt is a consistent net issuer, with share count up roughly 226% since December 2024. |
| Dividends | None | No dividend has been paid and no policy declared per the filings reviewed. The company carries an accumulated deficit of $836.0M at June 30, 2026. It remains loss-making at the operating level; the six-month net income of $69.2M is the non-cash gain on the Transchem warrants rather than trading profit. |
| Debt maturities and refinancing | None | No long-term debt per the 10-Q Q2 2026 balance sheet. The ICE revolving facility was terminated July 30, 2025 and the $25M Yorkville convertible debenture was fully retired by September 2025. |
| Lock-up expirations | None | There is no lock-up on the DTR consideration shares. The Registration Rights Agreement instead obligated a resale registration within five business days of closing, and the resulting Form S-3 of May 12, 2026 covers 21,010,640 shares. No expiry exists to diarise; the overhang is live and tracked as the issuance overhang (S1). |
| Credit ratings | Not established | Not examined. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Index inclusion and deletion | Not established | Not examined. Also named in what was not checked. |
| Activist ownership | Covered above | Checked against all 68 beneficial-ownership filings in the complete index on August 3, 2026, under both the SC and SCHEDULE form types. Thirteen Schedule 13D filings are on file. The co-chief executive holds 22.3% on that form and reserves the right to press for extraordinary transactions including a take-private; ICE holds 19.8% on the same form as the former parent. Both are carried in the float and short interest condition (S4). |
Sits across every other catalyst rather than beside them. For an issuer that funds itself with equity, share count is the mechanism by which operating progress can still produce a flat or falling price.
| Date | Shares out | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 13.69M | Class A and Class V combined |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 25.52M | Debenture conversions, Up-C collapse, tax receivable settlement shares |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 30.71M | $21.5M ATM plus $48.1M registered direct |
| May 5, 2026 | 44.61M | 11.32M shares issued for DTR |
ICE's Class 1 and Class 2 Warrants strike at $25.50 and expire September 2029. Against a $7.56 share price they are far out of the money, so neither those exercises nor the DTR ratchet they would trigger should be treated as probable near-term dilution.
The share count itself is disputed. The Q1 10-Q cover reports 44,612,329 shares outstanding in early May; the resale prospectus states 47,866,956 as of April 30, 2026, 3.25M higher on an earlier date. The February pre-funded warrants over 2,475,201 shares were previously offered here as the likely explanation. The Q1 10-Q discloses that they were exercised in full in April 2026 and the shares issued, so they sit inside both counts and explain none of the gap. The 3.25M difference is now wholly unreconciled. Market data providers use the 10-Q figure and so does this calendar. The count used is 45,069,458, from the Q2 10-Q cover as of August 5, 2026, giving a capitalisation of $340.7M at the August 4 close; on the prospectus figure it would be about $362M instead.
What would prove this read wrong, stated in advance. Each trigger is settleable from a document; an unquantified threshold is not a test.
| # | If this happens… | …this was wrong | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bakkt does not file its Q2 2026 Form 10-Q on or before August 10, 2026. | That the confirmed date is the statutory deadline and will be met. | Untriggered |
| 2 | No Bakkt Agent launch is announced on or before September 30, 2026. | That the Q3 2026 guided launch holds, and with it the gating chain that depends on it. | Untriggered |
| 3 | Markets Total Transacting Volume reported for FY2026 is below $2.5 billion on the definition management publishes. | That the only quantified forward target management has issued is achievable. | Untriggered |
| 4 | Retained revenue divided by reported Total Transacting Volume, for any quarter of FY2026, is below 0.68%. | That the take rate holds or improves as the owned settlement stack captures payment economics. | Untriggered |
| 5 | Bakkt reports a goodwill impairment charge in its FY2026 Form 10-K. | That the DTR consideration of roughly $98M is supported by the acquired asset. | Untriggered |
| 6 | The court rules on the motion to dismiss in Franklin v. Bakkt Holdings, Inc., docket 1:25-cv-02520. | Whichever way it rules, that the matter stays an unpriced overhang rather than a resolved one. | Untriggered |
| 7 | The GENIUS Act takes effect on a date other than January 18, 2027. | That final rules did not publish by roughly September 20, 2026, which is what fixes the backstop date. | Untriggered |
| 8 | Bakkt does not exercise the Transchem warrants before the 18-month window from the June 2026 allotment expires. | That the India position is a platform rather than an option written off. | Untriggered |
| 9 | A Form 10-Q or 10-K cover page reports shares outstanding above 47,866,956, the higher of the two disputed counts. | That the resale registration and the ATM have not produced further issuance beyond the disputed range. | Untriggered |
| 10 | Markets Total Transacting Volume reported for Q3 2026 is below $750 million. Estimate | That the year-end $2.5 billion target is still reachable when Q3 prints. Reaching $2.5 billion from Q1's $241 million requires about $2,259 million across the remaining three quarters, roughly $753 million each on an even ramp; the threshold is that arithmetic, not a company statement. | Untriggered |
| 11 | The shares move less than 15% in absolute terms from the prior close on the first full session after the Q2 2026 report. Estimate | That a thin float and 23.6% short interest make an outsized reaction likely. The threshold is the size of the move the shares actually made on the Q1 2026 print, recorded above. | Untriggered |
| 12 | Section 16 insiders report open-market dispositions totalling more than 865,000 shares. Estimate | That insider selling remains withholding-scale. The threshold is the size of the only open-market purchase program in the record, the 865,000 shares bought by a director across May and June 2026, so selling past it means the register has turned. | Untriggered |
Tests 10 to 12 quantify assertions that previously carried no threshold. Each is anchored on a figure already in this document rather than a freely chosen number, and each threshold is an analyst judgment rather than a filed figure, which is what the Estimate tag records.
Every ID in one table, gapless within each class. Links point at title slugs so they survive renumbering.
| ID | Catalyst | Timing | Impact | Confidence | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Autumn conference season | 28 Sep – Oct 21, 2026 | Low | High | Neutral |
| D2 | Bakkt Agent launch | By Sep 30, 2026 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D3 | Q3 2026 results and Form 10-Q | ~Nov 9, 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D4 | DTR platform upgrade to 200+ assets | H2 2026 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| D5 | Jurisdiction expansion to 90+ markets | Year-end 2026 | Low | Medium | Two-sided |
| D6 | Year-end transacting volume target | Dec 31, 2026 | High | High | Two-sided |
| D7 | GENIUS Act final rules window | Late 2026 – early 2027 | Medium | Low | Two-sided |
| D8 | GENIUS Act effective date | Jan 18, 2027 | Medium | High | Two-sided |
| D9 | FY2026 results and Form 10-K | ~Mar 16, 2027 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| D10 | Goodwill and intangible impairment testing | ~Mar 2027 | Medium | Medium | Two-sided |
| D11 | Q1 2027 results | ~May 10, 2027 | Medium | High | Two-sided |
| D12 | Transchem warrant exercise decision | By ~Dec 2027 | High | Medium | Two-sided |
| S1 | Equity issuance overhang and the active ATM | Continuous | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S2 | Crypto market activity and transaction volumes | Continuous | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S3 | Competitive displacement | Continuous | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S4 | Float structure, short interest and ownership | Continuous | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S5 | Related-party governance and key-person concentration | Standing | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S6 | Strategic acquisition optionality | Standing | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S7 | Digital asset treasury strategy | Standing | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S8 | Securities class action ruling | Pending | High | n/a | Two-sided |
| S9 | Interest rate path and liquidity | Continuous | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S10 | Zoth definitive commercial agreements | No date given | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S11 | Investor day 2027 | Not announced | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S12 | Class action post-ruling path | Follows the ruling | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S13 | Transchem broking acquisition | No date | Medium | n/a | Two-sided |
| S14 | ICE Series A preferred conversion | No date disclosed | Low | n/a | Two-sided |
| S15 | Insider transaction flow | Continuous | Low | n/a | Two-sided |
| R1 | $69.6M raised, ATM and registered direct | Feb 27, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R2 | DTR acquisition closed | Apr 30, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R3 | Q1 2026 results | May 11, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R4 | Management team rebuilt | May 11, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R5 | India regulatory approval | Jun 4, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R6 | Corporate simplification completed | Jun 23, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
| R7 | Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q | Aug 10, 2026 | n/a | n/a | Resolved |
Ordered by timing confidence rather than importance: what is most likely to happen, not what would matter most.
What would change the read fastest, positive: a signed contract with disclosed economics, any counterparty, any size. Bakkt has never published a take rate on a partnership, and one disclosed rate would let the payments business be modelled rather than guessed at.
Negative: the Agent launch (D2) slipping past Q3 while Q3 retained revenue stays near $0.8M. That combination removes both the near-term catalyst and the argument that the current quarter is a trough. A close secondary is the first substantive insider sale under the now-effective resale registration.
Maps the numbering used before this revision to the current IDs, so earlier log entries remain resolvable. Items whose timing was unscheduled, pending or not announced moved from the dated class to standing conditions, which is why several numeric IDs now carry an S prefix.
| Was | Now | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | R7 | Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q |
| 2 | D2 | Bakkt Agent launch |
| 3 | S8 | Securities class action, motion to dismiss ruling |
| 4 | S10 | Zoth definitive commercial agreements |
| 5 | D4 | DTR platform upgrade to 200+ assets |
| 6 | D1 | Autumn conference season |
| 7 | D3 | Q3 2026 results and Form 10-Q |
| 8 | D5 | Jurisdiction expansion to 90+ markets |
| 9 | D6 | Year-end transacting volume target |
| 10 | D7 | GENIUS Act final rules window |
| 11 | D8 | GENIUS Act effective date |
| 12 | S14 | ICE Series A preferred conversion |
| 13 | D9 | FY2026 results and Form 10-K |
| 14 | S11 | Investor day 2027 |
| 15 | D11 | Q1 2027 results |
| 16 | S12 | Class action post-ruling path |
| 17 | D12 | Transchem warrant exercise decision |
| 18 | S13 | Transchem broking acquisition |
| 19 | D10 | Goodwill and intangible impairment testing |
| S1 | S1 | Equity issuance overhang and the active ATM |
| S2 | S2 | Crypto market activity and transaction volumes |
| S3 | S3 | Competitive displacement |
| S4 | S5 | Related-party governance and key-person concentration |
| S5 | S15 | Insider transaction flow |
| S6 | S6 | Strategic acquisition optionality |
| S7 | S9 | Interest rate path and liquidity |
| S8 | S7 | Digital asset treasury strategy |
| S9 | S4 | Float structure, short interest and ownership |
| C1 | R2 | DTR acquisition closed |
| C2 | R3 | Q1 2026 results |
| C3 | R1 | $69.6M raised, ATM and registered direct |
| C4 | R5 | India regulatory approval |
| C5 | R6 | Corporate simplification completed |
| C6 | R4 | Management team rebuilt |
The four tags used throughout this document, and what each asserts.
| Tag | What it asserts |
|---|---|
| Filed | Stated in an SEC filing or company release, cited by form and date. Also covers a dated official publication by a named non-SEC issuer, with the issuer named in the source line: a court docket, a central bank statement, a conference schedule published by its organizer. |
| Estimate | Derived or inferred here. The arithmetic is shown. |
| Open | Expected but unconfirmed. Nothing filed either way. |
| Market | Price, volume, float, short interest, and published targets and ratings, stamped with the close or publication date. A third party's characterisation of someone else's facts is market data and is tagged here rather than as filed, however authoritative the third party. A third party's target or rating is attributed to the firm that issued it and is never adopted here. |
| Level | Means |
|---|---|
| High | Date is company-announced, protocol-defined, or statutorily fixed. |
| Medium | Date inferred from filing cadence or a stated deadline window. |
| Low | Date is a judgment call. Could move by a quarter or more. |
Confidence rates timing, never outcome. A High-confidence catalyst can be a coin flip; a Low-confidence one can be near-certain in direction.
Impact is independent of confidence. A High-impact, Low-confidence item is the most important kind here: it matters enormously and could land any time.
Defects identified but not resolved, with the text at issue quoted and the reason each remains open.
Nothing is currently carried forward. The three assertions that previously had no settleable threshold now carry one, as tests 10 to 12 above, and the impact-scale compression noted below is resolved.
On the compressed impact ratings. An earlier source for this document used a five-value impact scale, including intermediate values between High and Medium and between Medium and Low, against the three values used here. The finer ranking survives in the ordering rather than the label: standing conditions are listed most material first, so an item carrying the same label as the one above it but sitting below it is ranked below it. No distinction was invented to achieve that, and none was lost.
Primary filings and company releases first, with form type and date.
A filing sweep was run on August 4, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001820302 rather than against the ticker. The complete submissions index does not paginate, so every absence recorded above rests on the whole record; it held 752 filings between August 7, 2020 and July 27, 2026 when that sweep was run. It was re-read on August 17, 2026 and five filings have appeared since that Schedule 13G: a Form 8-K/A of August 7, 2026, a Form 8-K and the Form 10-Q for Q2 2026 both of August 10, 2026, a Schedule 13G/A of August 14, 2026, and a Form 8-K of August 17, 2026. The Q2 2026 results and the Form 10-Q are recorded in the log below. The 2025 reorganization leaves no orphaned index: the successor took the same Central Index Key and commission file number, and the predecessor's Form 15 of November 17, 2025 sits on it. The following were not reached:
Newest first. The original build entry is never removed or rewritten.
The jurisdiction count moved between quarter-ends, which is what this row was waiting for. The company's August presentation states money movement in 63+ countries and enumerates off-ramps to 19 local currencies, against the 60+ this row was written against and the 90+ year-end target. The row is not closed by it: a presentation is not the interim disclosure at Q3 that the row names as its test, so the item stays open and no catalyst changes state.
The presentation predates this file, August 10 against a build of August 17, and prints no day on its cover, so it is cited by month with the date it was located. No date moves and nothing is repriced.
The sources list dated the price to a session this document does not price off. It read "Market data at the July 31, 2026 close, covering price, float, short interest and beta", while this document has been priced off the August 4, 2026 close since the entry of that date. The 31 July close was $7.17 and the 4 August close $7.56, which is the price carried here. Float, short interest and beta are still struck at the 31 July close and are unchanged, so the line now dates the price separately from them. Nothing was repriced and no figure moved.
The filing record is re-dated to today. The sources section said in the present tense that nothing was filed after the Schedule 13G of July 27, 2026, which the log below has contradicted since the Q2 results were recorded on 11 August. The submissions index was re-read on August 17, 2026: five filings have appeared since that Schedule 13G, of which the Q2 2026 results and the Form 10-Q are already recorded here. The Form 8-K/A of August 7, the Schedule 13G/A of August 14 and the Form 8-K of August 17 were not opened, and neither was the Chief Financial Officer appointment the company announced on its newsroom on August 17, 2026. All four are named in what was not checked.
Nothing else changed. No catalyst resolved, none was added and no expected date moved. The price is not restruck and the pricing basis stays at the August 4, 2026 close.
The share count this calendar compares against was the Q1 cover figure. The Q2 10-Q cover states 45,069,458 shares as of August 5, 2026. The capitalisation quoted in the dilution section becomes $340.7M at the unchanged August 4 close, and the item that tells a reader to check the next cover for at-the-market usage now names the current baseline rather than a superseded one.
No catalyst resolved and none was added, and the price is not restruck. The dated, standing and resolved counts are unchanged. The unreconciled gap against the resale prospectus figure is unchanged in substance and is still carried.
Two null-category rows still described the Q1 balance sheet. The dividends row carried an accumulated deficit of $916.8M at March 31 and the debt row cited the Q1 2026 balance sheet, four days after the Q2 10-Q was absorbed elsewhere in this file. The deficit is $836.0M at June 30, 2026 and the debt position is unchanged and now cited to the Q2 balance sheet.
The company is still loss-making at the operating level and the accounts now show net income. The six months to June 30 produced $69.2M, almost all of it the non-cash gain on the Transchem warrants rather than trading profit, and saying only that the company is loss-making would now be wrong while saying only that it earned would be worse.
No catalyst resolved and none was added. The dated, standing and resolved counts are unchanged and the price is not restruck.
Q1 figures were left standing as current when the Q2 print was recorded. Cash, the controllable quarterly cost base and retained revenue were quoted as current after the Q2 revision earlier today. Cash reads $50.7M rather than $82.6M, the quarterly controllable cost base $20.5M rather than $18.6M, and the retained-revenue base $0.8M rather than $1.6M. The resolved card for the Q1 results and the condition table set in advance for Q2 are unchanged, because they are correct history.
Runway is recomputed rather than substituted. At the stated $12.1M quarterly burn, $50.7M implies roughly four quarters before the India commitment rather than six to seven. One forward scenario referred to Q2 retained revenue staying near $1.6M; Q2 has since resolved at $0.8M, so it now refers to Q3.
Q2 2026 resolved, and every downside condition the card set was met. Reported August 10, 2026 after close, Form 10-Q the same day. Total Transacting Volume $168.8M against $241M in Q1; retained revenue $0.8M, being $170.1M of revenue less $169.3M of crypto and execution, clearing and brokerage costs; operating expenses excluding those costs $20.5M against $19.0M; cash, equivalents and restricted cash $50.7M, below the $65M to $70M the card named as the downside; and Bakkt Agent targeted for Q4 2026. None of the four upside conditions was met. Carried as Q2 2026 results and Form 10-Q (R7).
The reported profit is an unrealised warrant mark. GAAP net income of $80.8M sits against an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.8M, wider than the $9.8M a year earlier, with total revenue down 70.0%. The income comes from 47.5 million Transchem warrants carried at $107.9M against about $9.4M paid. The company states its strategic asset value does not represent a market or liquidation value.
The price was not restruck. The as-of stamp moves to August 11, 2026 and the pricing basis stays at the August 4, 2026 close. This revision records a filing; it does not reprice the file.
Repriced to the 4 August close. The session ended at 16:00 Eastern, stamped by the exchange, on volume of 886,823 shares, about 1.07 times the mean of the nine preceding sessions. $7.35 → $7.56 and capitalization $327.9M → $337.3M, which moves the distance to the 52-week low of $6.75 from 9% to 12%, the discount to the $8.75 February placement from 16% to 14%, the discount to the $8.65 DTR valuation VWAP from 15% to 13%, and the capitalization on the disputed prospectus count from about $352M to about $362M. The intraday low of $7.24 on 4 August sits 7.3% above the 52-week low where 3 August traded within 2.5% of it, so the goodwill impairment trigger is closer than it was in July but less close than it was yesterday.
Filing sweep re-run to August 4, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001820302, across the complete index of 752 filings, which does not paginate. Nothing has been filed since the Schedule 13G of July 27, 2026.
No catalyst was added or removed. Nothing else in this document changed.
The insider assumption block contradicted the correction recorded beneath it. It still read that the aggregator's 865,000-share figure was "most likely award-related" and unverifiable against individual Form 4s, while the same card's own text, the previous log entry and falsification test 12 all rest on those shares being open-market purchases by a named director. The block is replaced by what the Form 4s establish.
The ownership register was read from two filings and there are sixty-eight. A sweep of the complete index by Central Index Key finds the largest holder is the co-chief executive, reporting 22.3% on Schedule 13D, the activist form, and a fund reporting 9.99% on Schedule 13G. Neither appeared here. Both now do, in the float and short interest condition and in the null categories.
The late-filing record is four notices, not one. Form NT 10-Q of May 17, 2021, Form NT 10-K of March 17, 2025, Form NT 10-Q of November 12, 2025 and Form NT 10-K of March 17, 2026. Two consecutive late annual reports is a different signal from one, and it is the evidence behind the Medium timing confidence on the reporting dates rather than a third-party filing calendar, which is where the March 17, 2026 notice had been sourced.
Pricing is unchanged. No session has closed since the 31 July close: the intervening days fell at a weekend and the 3 August session was still open when this revision was assembled, on about 43% of the volume of recent completed sessions. Only the as-of stamp moves, August 2, 2026 to August 3, 2026.
Filing sweep. Re-run on August 3, 2026 against Central Index Key 0001820302. The complete index holds 752 filings between August 7, 2020 and July 27, 2026 and does not paginate. Sixty-eight are statements of beneficial ownership, forty under the SC form types and twenty-eight under the SCHEDULE spellings, and all sixty-eight were opened. Nothing has been filed since the Schedule 13G of July 27, 2026.
No catalyst was added or removed.
Not changed: the horizon structure, the section order, the thirteen dated catalysts, the fifteen standing conditions and the six resolved items, the falsification tests, and the reading that the float and the short position dominate the trading behavior.
The insider buying was real. The previous entry treated an aggregator's figure of 865,000 shares bought over 90 days as probably award-related and unverifiable against individual Form 4s. It is neither. Director Michael Alfred bought 865,000 shares in open-market transactions through Alpine Fox LP: 365,000 on May 15, 2026 at a weighted-average $8.34, 220,000 on 18 May at $8.20, 180,000 on 9 June at $7.71 and 100,000 on 10 June at $7.83, roughly $7.0M in aggregate, leaving the partnership holding 905,000 shares. Insider transaction flow is rewritten accordingly, and the assumption that dismissed the figure is withdrawn.
An NT 10-Q does exist. The previous entry stated that none had ever been filed. Bakkt filed one on November 10, 2025 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, citing technical problems with the EDGAR submission process immediately before the deadline rather than any difficulty preparing the statements. The 10-K notification of March 17, 2026 is separately explained by the time needed to finalise the consolidated statements and for a first-year audit of the statements and of internal control over financial reporting.
The share-count explanation is withdrawn. The dilution overlay offered the February pre-funded warrants as the likely reconciliation of the 3.25M gap between the two share counts. The Q1 10-Q states those warrants were exercised in full in April 2026 and the shares issued, so they sit inside both counts and explain nothing. The gap is now recorded as wholly unreconciled.
Filing sweep. Run across the current, periodic, registration, ownership and late-notification families and reaching today. Nothing has been filed since the Forms 4 of July 17, 2026 and the company release of July 27, 2026, so the sweep is clean for the last sixteen days. The SEC full-text search interface was unavailable and the sweep ran against the company's own filing and news pages and against aggregators, which is recorded in what was not checked.
Pricing unchanged. July 31, 2026 was a Friday and today is a Sunday, so no session has occurred since the previous entry. The $7.17 close and the $319.9M capitalization carry forward unrepriced, and only the as-of stamp moves.
Three falsification tests gained thresholds, taking the section from nine tests to twelve. Each is anchored on a figure already in the document rather than a freely chosen one: Q3 transacting volume against the arithmetic of the $2.5B target and the $241M first quarter, being about $753M a quarter on an even ramp; the Q2 price reaction against the move the shares actually made on the Q1 print; and insider dispositions against the 865,000 shares of purchases now on the record. All three thresholds are analyst judgment rather than filed figures and are tagged as estimates.
The impact-scale carry-forward is closed. The finer ranking of the earlier five-value scale survives in the ordering rather than the label, since standing conditions are listed most material first. Nothing was invented to close it and the note now records the resolution rather than the defect. Nothing is carried forward.
Newly tracked. The at-the-market program's authorised capacity of up to $300M under a Sales Agreement dated January 16, 2026 with seven sales agents, against a market capitalization near $320M, with $21.5M gross and $20.8M net drawn on 1,990,434 shares to March 31, 2026. The resale registration was declared effective May 28, 2026 with its prospectus filed 27 May, so the overhang has been live for nine weeks rather than merely filed. Officer dispositions of 29 April and June 29, 2026 are added to insider transaction flow.
No catalyst moved. No item resolved, none was added, and no expected date changed. The concordance is unaffected.
Scope of review. Full filing-type audit across 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, S-1, S-3, 424, 13D, 13G, NT 10-K, NT 10-Q and Forms 3, 4 and 144, plus the proxy statement. Not applicable to this issuer: 6-K, 20-F, 40-F, NT 20-F and NT 40-F are foreign private issuer forms, and Bakkt is a Delaware-incorporated domestic filer. No S-1 exists, since Bakkt is S-3 eligible. No NT 10-Q has ever been filed.
Corrections to the 26 July build. ICE ownership restated from 19.8% to 16.5% (7,919,002 shares at Apr 30, 2026). ICE's Class 1/Class 2 Warrants strike at $25.50, expiring Sept 2029, far out of the money, so the "warrants dilute you twice via the DTR ratchet" framing in the dilution overlay is corrected as materially less likely to operate. The lock-up entry in the null table is resolved in reverse: there is no lock-up, and registration rights instead obligated Bakkt to file a resale registration within five business days of the DTR closing. The insider-flow warning signal is also corrected: a Rule 10b5-1 plan already exists at General Counsel level, so the signal to watch is a change in magnitude, not the appearance of a plan. A caution now flags that one aggregator's "865,000 shares bought" should not be read as open-market insider buying; it is almost certainly award-related and could not be verified to individual Form 4s.
Newly tracked. The Form S-3 resale registration filed May 12, 2026 covering 21,010,640 shares (~43.9% of outstanding), including 8,926,320 for the CEO and 8,380,362 for ICE, folded into the issuance overhang and the dilution overlay, with the issuance-versus-resale distinction made explicit. The Gyzer Inc. acquisition (May 2026) from Chief Commercial Officer Daniel Ishag, a second executive-vendor transaction within six weeks, added to related-party governance and to acquisition optionality, alongside three auditors in three years (EY, KPMG, Grant Thornton) and the CEO's inducement-grant terms: 1,607,717 PSUs, ~$15M grant-date value, first price hurdle $18.66 against a $7.17 share price, 62% out of the money, performance period to March 21, 2028. Insider flow gains the Form 144 filed July 16, 2026 and the three Form 4s of 17 July, all withholding-scale.
Three new structural conditions, taking the section from six to nine: an interest rate path condition, the FOMC having held at 3.50 to 3.75% on 29 July on a 9 to 3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike; a digital asset treasury condition, whose existence is evidenced in the filings but whose size and location are not, flagged as the largest known unknown ahead of Q2; and a float structure, short interest and institutional ownership condition, being a tradable float of only ~26.73M of 44.61M shares with roughly 23.6% sold short (~6.3M shares, up 216.8% year over year, ~6.5 days to cover), plus BlackRock's Schedule 13G filed July 27, 2026 disclosing 2,452,659 shares (5.5%) held passively. That last is a transmission mechanism rather than a catalyst: it governs how violently the 10 August print gets priced.
Confirmed. The Q2 2026 results moved from an estimated ~6 August to the company-confirmed August 10, 2026, after close with a 5:30 PM EDT call (announced 27 July), the statutory deadline itself, not an early filing.
Market and macro refresh. Pricing updated to the July 31, 2026 close of $7.17 (market cap $319.9M, 6% above the revised 52-week low of $6.75, beta ~5.9), which makes the goodwill impairment trigger live rather than hypothetical. Crypto market activity updated for the stablecoin divergence: total float fell to ~$310B, the largest monthly decline since Terra in May 2022, while June transaction volume hit a record $1.79T, up 63% MoM. Bitcoin ~$63,870. The share-count discrepancy between the 10-Q (44,612,329) and the resale prospectus (47,866,956) is disclosed rather than silently reconciled, with BlackRock's 5.5% implying a ~44.6M denominator that favors the 10-Q figure. Dated catalysts remain 1 to 19; total tracked items now 34.
Initial catalyst calendar published covering 19 dated catalysts across three horizons (0 to 3, 3 to 6 and 6 to 12 months), 6 undated structural conditions (S1 to S6, since expanded) and 6 completed events (C1 to C6), spanning earnings, product launches, investor days, regulatory decisions, litigation, macro, industry conferences, management changes, buybacks, dividends and major contracts. Sequenced against the Bakkt Agent Q3 2026 launch, which gates most of the forward chain. Included an explicit null-category table, a dilution overlay, a gating-dependency chain, and a highest-probability sequence. Sources: Bakkt 10-Q Q1 2026 read directly on sec.gov, Forms 8-K and 8-K/A, company press releases through June 4, 2026, ICE Schedule 13D/A, CourtListener docket 1:25-cv-02520, GENIUS Act rulemaking trackers, and published 2026 conference calendars, all as available on July 26, 2026. Next scheduled update: Q2 2026 results, expected early-to-mid August 2026.